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We present the development of physics-based models of solar-terrestrial regions from the solar surface to the Earth's atmosphere at NICT. Our models consist of three regions: (1) the solar surface and solar wind, (2) the Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere, and (3) a model of the whole atmosphere from the troposphere to the ionosphere, called the Ground to Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA). We also have a solar wind and CME model, Space-weather-forecast-Usable System Anchored by Numerical Operations and Observations (SUSANOO). Furthermore, we have developed a high-resolution plasma bubble model. The coupling of these models is a future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emanating from coronals holes (CHs), high speed streams (HSSs) cause recurrent geomagnetic disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere. For this reason being able to predict the occurrence and timing of the high speed solar wind is one of the more important issues in space weather forecasting. Currently, it is still difficult to estimate the effect of a CH in case that it extends from high latitudes to lower ones. To monitor the global solar wind condition we have therefore developed a three-dimensional MHD simulation code, the REProduce Plasma Universe (REPPU) code, that is driven by the solar magnetic field from the solar surface to 1AU. The connectivity of magnetic field lines from CHs to Earth's orbit via HSSs has been investigated. Simulation results are presented and the usefulness of our model is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sophisticated instrumentation dedicated to studying and monitoring our Sun's activity has proliferated in the past few decades, together with the increasing demand of specialized space weather forecasts that address the needs of commercial and government systems. As a result, theoretical and empirical models and techniques of increasing complexity have been developed, aimed at forecasting the occurrence of solar disturbances, their evolution, and time of arrival to Earth. Here we will review groundbreaking and recent methods to predict the propagation and evolution of coronal mass ejections and their driven shocks. The methods rely on a wealth of data sets provided by ground- and space-based observatories, involving remote-sensing observations of the corona and the heliosphere, as well as detections of radio waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At large distance scales, space exploration in the last decades has significantly helped in better locating the boundaries of the Heliosphere and outlining its shape as well as in probing the various plasma domains that separate the inner heliospheric region from the interstellar one. At shorter distance scales, a fleet of spacecraft has been probing the outer and inner Solar System plasma with a high level of detail. This monitoring, complemented by space- and ground-based observations of processes relevant to the Heliosphere, has pointed out a series both of intrinsic and extrinsic perturbations that characterise the physical state of heliospheric plasmas both at small and large spatial scales and on short and long temporal scales. By means of concept maps that schematise the association among concepts, in this work we will present a new domain ontology for the definition and characterisation of Heliospheric Weather and Climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper outlines the space-weather-related observations, instrumentation, research and service developments carried out at the Geophysical Centre of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) in Dourbes, Belgium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The points where the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field vanishes are located in polar areas, far away from the geomagnetic (analytic) poles and the poles of rotation of the Earth and, differently from the geomagnetic poles, can be found experimentally with a magnetic survey to determine where the field is vertical. The experimental determination of the area where the total field is perfectly vertical, commonly known as dip pole, is not simple, due to the remoteness and harsh climatic conditions; another difficulty is related to the short term geomagnetic field variations, due to the interaction with the external solar wind, which causes the magnetospheric dynamics, particularly evident at high latitude, and as a consequence a displacement of the dip pole. Actually, the study of the dip pole displacements over short time scales can be an important tool for monitoring the magnetospheric dynamics at high latitude. In this study we present the updated location of the the dip poles, using data from the Swarm ESA's constellation of satellites along their almost polar orbits. We also analyse the spatial shift of these areas during different seasons and interplanetary magnetic field orientations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires prediction of near-Earth solar-wind conditions on the basis of remote solar observations. This is typically achieved using numerical magnetohydrodynamic models initiated by photospheric magnetic field observations. The accuracy of such forecasts is being continually improved through better numerics, better determination of the boundary conditions and better representation of the underlying physical processes. Thus it is not unreasonable to conclude that simple, empirical solar-wind forecasts have been rendered obsolete. However, empirical models arguably have more to contribute now than ever before. In addition to providing quick, cheap, independent forecasts, simple empirical models aid in numerical model validation and verification, and add value to numerical model forecasts through parameterization, uncertainty estimation and 'downscaling' of sub-grid processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widths of total solar eclipse paths depends on the diameter of the Sun, so if observations are obtained near both the northern and southern limits of the eclipse path, in principle, the angular diameter of the Sun can be measured. Concerted efforts have been made to obtain contact timings from locations near total solar eclipse path edges since the mid 19th century, and Edmund Halley organized a rather successful first effort in 1715. Members of IOTA have been making increasingly sophisticated observations of the Baily's bead phenomena near central solar eclipse path edges since 1970. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We use low frequency geomagnetic field measurements at two Antarctic stations to statistically investigate the longitudinal location of the polar cusp. The two stations are both located in the polar cap at a geomagnetic latitude close to the cusp latitude; they are separated by one hour in magnetic local time. At each station the Pc5 power maximizes when the station approaches the cusp, i.e. around magnetic local noon. The comparison between the Pc5 power at the two stations allows to determine the longitudinal location of the cusp. Our analysis is conducted considering separately different orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The results, which indicate longitudinal shifts of the polar cusp depending on the selected conditions, are discussed in relation to previous studies of the polar cusp location based on polar magnetospheric satellite data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transit of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun to 1 AU lasts on average one to five days. As they propagate, CMEs interact with the solar wind and preceding eruptions, which modify their properties. In the past ten years, the evolution of CMEs in the inner heliosphere has been investigated with the help of numerical simulations, through the analysis of remote-sensing heliospheric observations, especially with the SECCHI suite onboard STEREO, and through the analysis of multi-spacecraft in situ measurements. Most studies have focused on understanding the characteristics of the magnetic flux rope thought to form the core of the CME. Here, we first review recent work related to CME propagation in the heliosphere, which point towards the need to develop more complex models to analyze CME observations. In the second part of this article, we review some recent studies of CME-CME interaction, which also illustrate the complexity of phenomena occurring in the inner heliosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Solar variability and its effects on the physical variability of our (space) environment produces complex signals. In the indicators of solar activity at least four independent cyclic components can be identified, all of them with temporal variations in their timescales.Time-frequency distributions (see Kolláth & Oláh 2009) are perfect tools to disclose the “music scores” in these complex time series. Special features in the time-frequency distributions, like frequency splitting, or modulations on different timescales provide clues, which can reveal similar trends among different indices like sunspot numbers, interplanetary magnetic field strength in the Earth's neighborhood and climate data.On the pseudo-Wigner Distribution (PWD) the frequency splitting of all the three main components (the Gleissberg and Schwabe cycles, and an ≈5.5 year signal originating from cycle asymmetry, i.e. the Waldmeier effect) can be identified as a “bubble” shaped structure after 1950. The same frequency splitting feature can also be found in the heliospheric magnetic field data and the microwave radio flux. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The recent solar minimum (2008-2009) was extreme in several aspects: the sunspot number, Rz, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude Bo and solar wind speed Vsw were the lowest during the space era. Furthermore, the variance of the IMF southward Bz component was low. As a consequence of these exceedingly low solar wind parameters, there was a minimum in the energy transfer from solar wind to the magnetosphere, and the geomagnetic activity ap index reached extremely low levels. The minimum in geomagnetic activity was delayed in relation to sunspot cycle minimum. We compare the solar wind and geomagnetic activity observed in this recent minimum with previous solar cycle values during the space era (1964-2010). Moreover, the geomagnetic activity conditions during the current minimum are compared with long term variability during the period of available geomagnetic observations. The extremely low geomagnetic activity observed in this solar minimum was previously recorded only at the end of XIX century and at the beginning of the XX century, and this might be related to the Gleissberg (80-100 years) solar cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This work presents the first results of a study about possible effects on the surface temperature during short periods of lower fluxes of Galactic Cosmic Rays at Earth, called Forbush Decreases. There is a hypothesis that the Galactic Cosmic Ray flux decreases cause changes on the physical-chemical properties of the atmosphere. We have conducted a study to investigate these possible effects on several latitudinal regions, around the ten strongest FDs occurred from 1987 to 2015. We have found a possible increase on the surface temperature at middle and high latitudes during the occurence of these events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fast solar wind analysis during the Whole Heliospheric Interval (Carrington Rotation no. 2068: March 20 - April 16, 2008) is herein presented. The analysis is based on the data recorded by space experiments aboard the ACE and SOHO missions. The high-speed streams in the solar wind were determined by their main parameters: duration, maximum velocity, velocity gradient. The fast solar wind was also analyzed during the preceding and following Carrington Rotations, nos. 2067 and 2069, respectively. The main properties of the rapid streams and their solar sources were analysed in terms of the present solar minimum phase. The geospace response to the fast streams was evaluated using the geomagnetic index dynamics. A comparative analysis of the high-speed streams registered during Whole Heliospheric Interval with the ones determined during Whole Sun Month was also made. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper, I review the results of 3-D evolution of the inner heliosphere over the solar cycle 23, based on observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) made at 327 MHz using the Ooty Radio Telescope. The large-scale features of solar wind speed and density turbulence of the current minimum are remarkably different from that of the previous cycle. The results on the solar wind density turbulence show that (1) the current solar minimum is experiencing a low level of coronal density turbulence, to a present value of ~50% lower than the previous similar phase, and (2) the scattering diameter of the corona has decreased steadily after the year 2003. The results on solar wind speed are consistent with the magnetic field strength at the poles and the warping of heliospheric current sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We have examined the variation of carbon-14 content in annual tree rings, and investigated the transitions of the characteristics of the Schwabe/Hale (11-year/22-year) solar and cosmic-ray cycles during the last 1200 years, focusing mainly on the Maunder and Spoerer minima and the early Medieval Maximum Period. It has been revealed that the mean length of the Schwabe/Hale cycles changes associated with the centennial-scale variation of solar activity level. The mean length of Schwabe cycle had been ~14 years during the Maunder Minimum, while it was ~9 years during the early Medieval Maximum Period. We have also found that climate proxy record shows cyclic variations similar to stretching/shortening Schwabe/Hale solar cycles in time, suggesting that both Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are playing important role in climate change. In this paper, we review the nature of Schwabe and Hale cycles of solar activity and cosmic-ray flux during the Maunder Minimum and their possible influence on climate change. We suggest that the Hale cycle of cosmic rays are amplified during the grand solar minima and thus the influence of cosmic rays on climate change is prominently recognizable during such periods. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Solar activity and its consequences for the interplanetary space are governing and perturbing the Earth's magnetosphere. The response of the terrestrial magnetosphere displayed as geomagnetic disturbances is measured by several geomagnetic indices. This paper analyses the geomagnetic variability during the ascendant phases of the last four solar cycles (nos. 20-23) under the influence of the high speed solar wind. The ascendant phase of a solar cycle is a proper interval of the irrespective cycle during which the influences of the solar cycles adjacent to it (the precedent and the following ones) are not present. The correlation between the geomagnetic indices and the high speed stream intensity during the analysed intervals was examined. Lomb-Scargle method of spectral analysis was applied on the solar wind velocity series during the ascendant phases. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this study we investigate the effects of solar activity on the surface air temperature of mid-latitudes. This enables us to understand existence of solar activity effects on the temperature. We used surface air temperature and pressure data as climate parameters, and solar flare index data as solar activity indicator, for the 25 - 50 degree longitude and 30 - 70 degree latitude zone, including Turkey and European part of Russia. We considered the parameters temperature, pressure and flare index data for the period ranging from January 1975 to the end of December 2007, which covers almost three solar cycles, namely 21st, 22nd, and 23rd. We found some significant correlations between solar activity and surface air temperature for cycles 22 and 23 for some zones. We applied multitaper method to obtain the cyclic behavior of surface air temperature data sets. The most pronounced power peaks were found by this transform around 1.2 and 2.5 years which were reported earlier for some solar activity indicators. We concluded that signature of solar activity effect exists on surface air temperature of mid-latitudes where we studied. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The thermosphere is the transition region from the atmosphere to space. Both the solar ultraviolet radiation and the solar wind energy inputs have caused significant thermospheric variations from past to present. In order to understand thermospheric/ionospheric disturbances in association with changes in solar activity, observational and modelling efforts have been made by many researchers. Recent satellite observations, e.g., the satellite CHAMP, have revealed mass density variations in the upper thermosphere. The thermospheric temperature, wind, and composition variations have been also investigated with general/global circulation models (GCMs) which include forcings due to the solar wind energy inputs and the lower atmospheric effects. In particular, we have developed a GCM which covers all the atmospheric regions, troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, and thermosphere, to describe variations of the thermospheric temperature and density caused by both effects from the lower atmosphere and the magnetosphere. GCM simulations represent global and localized temperature and density structures, which vary from hour to hour, depending on forcings due to the lower atmosphere, solar and geomagnetic activities. This modelling attempt will enable us to describe the thermospheric weather influenced by solar activity in cooperation with ground-based and satellite observations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Early attempts to find how solar activity can influence the Earth's climate involved comparison of many physical processes, such as dynamo mechanism, magnetic reconnection and eruptive activity, irradiance, open flux and particles variations, global atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.. . . However, such direct links seem to be weak even if the solar effects has been found to be stronger during extended maxima or minima of solar activity. Thus, temporal scales ranging from days to thousand of years must be investigated. A description of the most recent results on solar variability and its possible influence on the Earth's climate and atmosphere will be here addressed, with a particular emphasize on modulations of about 120 years (and harmonics). The extrapolation indicates a significant negative decrease of the solar signal, and consequently a decrease of the global Earth's temperature in the forthcoming years. Such a modulation is also testifying by other means, such as spectral observations of temperature sensitive lines indicating a decline of solar activity around 2015 (up to a new prolonged minimum). Prediction of global effects from the Sun's influence over the climate is thus planted in a new way. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The methods of automatic solar active phenomenon or event detection have been researched and explored by people for many years, which have gone into actual services. The paper analyzes the relationship between these methods of automatic detection and the forecast or alert, using the solar short-term proton events predictions as an example. Using automatic method to conduct forecast or alert is under thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We discuss using high solar cycle atmospheric conditions as sensors for observing meteors and their properties. High altitude meteor trails (HAMTs) have sometimes been observed with HPLA (High Power Large Aperture) radars. At other times they are not seen. In the absence of systematic studies on this topic, we surmise that the reason might be differing atmospheric conditions during the observations. At EISCAT HAMTs were observed in 1990 and 1991. Very high meteor trails were observed with Israeli L-band radars in 1998, 1999 and 2001. Through the Leonid activity, around the latest perihelion passage of comet Tempel-Tuttle, optical meteors as high as 200 km were reported. This was partly due to new and better observing methods. However, all the reported periods of high altitude meteors seem to correlate with solar cycle maximum. The enhanced atmospheric and ionospheric densities extend the meteoroid interaction range with the atmosphere along its path, offering a better possibility to distinguish differential ablation of the various meteoric constituents. This should be studied during the next solar maximum, due within a few years. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Forbush effects associated with far western and eastern powerful sources on the Sun that occurred on the background of unsettled and moderate interplanetary and geomagnetic disturbances have been studied by data from neutron monitor networks and relevant measurements of the solar wind parameters. These Forbush effects may be referred to a special sub-class of events, with the characteristics like the event in July 2005, and incorporated by the common conditions: absence of a significant disturbance in the Earth vicinity; absence of a strong geomagnetic storm; slow decrease of cosmic ray intensity during the main phase of the Forbush effect. General features and separate properties in behavior of density and anisotropy of 10 GV cosmic rays for this subclass are investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Forbush decrease (or, in a broader sense, Forbush effect) - is a storm in cosmic rays, which is a part of heliospheric storm and very often observed simultaneously with a geomagnetic storm. Disturbances in the solar wind, magnetosphere and cosmic rays are closely interrelated and caused by the same active processes on the Sun. Thus, it is natural and useful to investigate them together. Such an investigation in the present work is based on the characteristics of cosmic rays with rigidity of 10 GV. The results are derived using data from the world wide neutron monitor network and are combined with relevant information into a data base on Forbush effects and large interplanetary disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We discuss how some coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from the western limb of the Sun are associated with space weather effects such as solar energetic particles (SEPs), shocks or geo-effective ejecta at Earth. We focus on the August 24, 2002 coronal mass ejection, a fast (~2000 km s−1) eruption originating from W81. Using a three-dimensional magneto-hydrodynamic simulation of this ejection with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), we show how a realistic initiation mechanism enables us to study the deflection of the CME in the corona and the heliosphere. Reconnection of the erupting magnetic field with that of neighboring streamers and active regions modify the solar connectivity of the field lines connecting to Earth and can also partly explain the deflection of the eruption during the first tens of minutes. Comparing the results at 1 AU of our simulation with observations by the ACE spacecraft, we find that the simulated shock does not reach Earth, but has a maximum angular span of about 120°, and reaches 35° West of Earth in 58 hours. We find no significant deflection of the CME and its associated shock wave in the heliosphere, and we discuss the consequences for the shock angular span. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large scale structures of plasma (~1016g) and magnetic field expelled from the solar corona to the interplanetary medium. During their travel in the inner heliosphere, these “interplanetary CMEs” (ICMEs), suffer acceleration due to the interaction with the ambient solar wind. Based on hydrodynamic theory, we have developed an analytical model for the ICME transport which reproduce well the observed deceleration of fast ICMEs. In this work we present the results of the model and its application to the CME observed on May 13, 2005 and the associated interplanetary type II burst. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Stanford's Solar Center, Electrical Engineering Department, and local educators have developed inexpensive Space Weather Monitors that students around the world can use to track solar- and lightning-induced changes to the Earth's ionosphere. Through the United Nations Basic Space Science Initiative (UNBSSI) and the International Heliophysical Year (IHY) Education and Public Outreach programme, our Monitors are being deployed to 191 countries. In partnership with Chabot Space and Science Center, we are designing and developing classroom and educator support materials to accompany the distribution. Materials will be culturally sensitive and will be translated into the six official languages of the United Nations (Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian, and Spanish). Monitors will be provided free of charge to developing nations and can be set up anywhere there is access to power. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs and the International Heliophysical Year (IHY) community have joined hands to deploy arrays of small, inexpensive instruments such as magnetometers, radio telescopes, GPS receivers, all-sky cameras, and particle detectors around the world to provide global measurements of ionospheric, magnetospheric and heliospheric phenomena. The small instrument programme is envisioned as a partnership between instrument providers, and instrument hosts in developing countries as one of United Nations Basic Space Science (UNBSS) activity. The lead scientist will provide the instruments (or fabrication plans for instruments) in the array; the host country will provide manpower, facilities, and operational support to obtain data with the instrument, located typically at a local university. This paper provides an overview of the IHY/UNBSS programme, its achievements and future plans. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) in 2007 & 2008 will celebrate the 50th anniversary of the International Geophysical Year (IGY) and, following its tradition of international research collaboration, will focus on the cross-disciplinary studies of universal processes in the heliosphere.The main goal of the IHY Education and Outreach Programme is to create more global access to exemplary resources in space and Earth science education and public outreach. By taking advantage of the IHY organization with representatives in every nation and in the partnership with the United Nations Basic Space Science Initiative (UNBSSI), we aim to promote new international partnerships. Our goal is to assist in increasing the visibility and accessibility of exemplary programmes and in the identification of formal or informal educational products that would be beneficial to improve space and Earth science knowledge in a given country; leaving a legacy of enhanced global access to resources and of world-wide connectivity between those engaged in education and public outreach efforts that are related to IHY science.Here we describe how to participate in the IHY Education and Outreach Programme and the benefits in doing so. Emphasis will be given to the role played by developing countries; not only in selecting useful resources and helping in their translation and adaptation, but also in providing different approaches and techniques in teaching. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The purpose: to emphasize, that there are some specific features of the development of science in the New Independent States (NIS) of the Former Soviet Union. These features demand enhanced attention of the organizers of the IHY. It is necessary to create effective mechanisms for the stimulation of the connection to world science of the dormant part of fundamental scientific knowledge of these countries, which has been saved up for fifty of years. Probably, the IHY is the last opportunity of rescuing the dormant part of this knowledge from full oblivion.The method adopted is to discuss and analyse the general tendencies in science in the NIS by reference to individual cases, in particular for meteor astronomy.Results: The features and history of the development of meteor astronomy during the existence of the Soviet Union and the subsequent period give a key to understanding of the problem. Meteor astronomy can be assumed to be a young science. It is an example of a cross-disciplinary science. It is an example of a science having a sharp rise, due to the project of the IGY and to subsequent geophysical projects. Meteor astronomy is a science directly connected with the launching of the first space satellite of the Earth and the evaluation of problems of meteoroid danger to space missions.Commission 22 (Division III) of the IAU coordinated the development of meteor astronomy during the IGY. The known Soviet researcher of meteors V. Fedynskiy headed this Commission during four years since 1958. In the USSR numerous meteor centres were created and activated. The general management was concentrated in Moscow. Despite the close interaction under global projects of the Soviet Union with other countries, there still existed a language barrier. The language barrier, together with other reasons, has led to the creation in the USSR of a powerful meteor science, but only in the Russian language.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the meteor centres have remained, but without ordinary central management. The scientific results have remained but as an isolated, inaccessible science published in English.Conclusion: Reunification of the scientific achievements of the last few years in the NIS with international science should become the task of the IHY. Revival of the activity of the some of the centres will be useful. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Using data from ACE and low-altitude polar orbit satellite of NOAA, we investigate the possible sources of the enhancements of relativistic electrons in the magnetosphere. The observations from NOAA for the different geomagnetic activity periods show that substorms injections provide seed electrons for MeV electron enhancement associated with geomagnetic storms and the energetic electrons in the solar wind provide an alternative source for the relativistic electrons in the magnetosphere during the SEP events.To search for other articles by the author(s) go to: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

By investigating ten typical magnetic clouds (MCs) associated with large geomagnetic storms (Dst $\leq-100$ nT) from 2000 to 2003, the geoeffectiveness of MCs with various orientations is addressed. It is found that the Dst peak values during the geomagnetic storms are well estimated by applying flux rope model to these magnetic clouds. A high correlation between estimated and observed Dst values is obtained. Moreover, the effect of orientations of MCs on intensities of geomagnetic storms is studied. It is found that the favorable orientations of MCs are approximately at $\theta\sim70^{\circ}$ and $\phi\sim40^{\circ}$ in GSE coordinates to cause large geomagnetic storms. Further, by analyzing solar observations of four associated erupted filaments, the question who determine the orientations of MCs is studied. The likelihood of predicting the intensities of a geomagnetic storms several tens hours before their occurrences is also discussed.To search for other articles by the author(s) go to: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Large Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are closely associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The significant correlation observed between SEP intensity and CME speed has been considered as the evidence for such a close connection. The recent finding that SEP events with preceding wide CMEs are likely to have higher intensities compared to those without was attributed to the interaction of the CME-driven shocks with the preceding CMEs or with their aftermath. It is also possible that the intensity of SEPs may also be affected by the properties of the solar source region. In this study, we found that the active region area has no relation with the SEP intensity and CME speed, thus supporting the importance of CME interaction. However, there is a significant correlation between flare size and the active region area, which probably reflects the spatial scale of the flare phenomenon as compared to that of the CME-driven shock.To search for other articles by the author(s) go to: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

One of the challenges in constructing global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the inner heliosphere for, e.g., space weather forecasting purposes, is to correctly capture the acceleration and expansion of the solar wind. In many current models, the solar wind is driven by varying the polytropic index so that a desired heating is obtained. While such schemes can yield solar wind properties consistent with observations, they are not problem-free. In this work, we demonstrate by performing MHD simulations that altering the polytropic index affects the properties of propagating shocks significantly, which in turn affect the predicted space weather conditions. Thus, driving the solar wind with such a mechanism should be used with care in simulations where correctly capturing the shock physics is essential. As a remedy, we present a simple heating function formulation by which the polytropic wind can be used while still modeling the shock physics correctly. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We will present the relevant activities performed during the International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program during the 5 year period 2004 - 2008. The IHY was a major international effort that involved the deployment of new instrumentation, new observations from the ground and in space, and a strong education component. Under the United Nations Office for Outer Space program called Basic Space Science Initiative (UNBSSI), instrument arrays have been deployed to provide global measurements of heliophysical phenomena. As a result, significant scientific and educational collaborations emerged between the organizing groups and the host country teams. In view of the great successes achieved by the IHY during these years, we propose to continue the highly successful collaboration with the UN program to study the universal processes in the solar system that affect the interplanetary and terrestrial environments, and to continue to coordinate the deployment and operation of new and existing instrumentation arrays aimed at understanding the impacts of Space Weather on Earth and the near-Earth environment. To this end, we propose a new program, the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI). The ISWI strongly complements the International Living With a Star (ILWS) program, providing more attention nationally, regionally, and internationally for the ILWS program. Based on a three-year program activity, the ISWI would provide the opportunity for scientists around the world to participate in this exciting quest to understand the effect of space disturbances on our Earth environment. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We present measurements of the EUV spectral irradiance we have obtained from radiance measurements with the SOHO Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer, from 1997 to date. We discuss the contribution of the various regions of the Sun to the total EUV irradiance, and how they varied dramatically between the last two solar minima. These observations allow us to interpret spectral irradiance measurements in the EUV which have been available since 2002 with the TIMED mission. We also briefly discuss how changes in various activity indices compare with the EUV spectral variability, and the limitations of spectral modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We analyzed data from PSMSL monthly mean sea level seeking correlations between sea level fluctuations and the solar and cosmic rays 11 year cycle. The data reveals decadal variability that could be causally connected to the solar and cosmic rays cycle, since these periodic changes are correlated. It is also found that the solar (cosmic rays) cycle correlates (anti-correlates) with the mean global surface temperature anomaly. A probable explanation of the above correlations is that the solar intensity and cosmic rays variations induce oscillations in the average temperature and precipitation, with corresponding changes in the continental water and snow accumulation. Thus, for instance, a higher than average snow and water over land, and lower temperatures produce oceans thermal contraction and lower mass, implicating lower mean sea level. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The 22-year oscillations of the Earth rotation due to several geophysical processes in the core-mantle system, oceans, atmosphere and geomagnetic field are excited mainly by 22-year cycles of the solar activity. These geophysical processes produce their own oscillations of the Earth rotation with different periods around 22 years. The direct and indirect influence of the solar activity on 22-year cycles of the Earth rotation are separated from the core effects and corresponding amplitudes are estimated by means of two approaches. The first, direct approach uses extended time series of Wolf's numbers with 22-year cycles, determined by sign alternation of even sunspot cycles. A linear regression between 22-year cycles of UT1 and solar activity is determined and this regression model is used to calculate the UT1 response to the 22-year cycles of the solar activity. The second, indirect approach uses 22-year oscillation of the mean sea level, caused by water evaporation due to variations of the total solar irradiance. The influence of the mean sea level variations on the Earth rotation is calculated by means of an empirical model of global water redistribution. The core-mantle effects on the 22-year UT1 variations are determined by excluding the UT1 response to the solar activity and core angular momentum due to the geomagnetic field variations, according to the solutions from the Special Bureau of the Core (SBC). [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The solar-terrestrial energy transfer, due to the total solar irradiance (TSI), solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, has 11-year modulation during the sunspot cycles. Other oscillations of solar-terrestrial energy transfer are with periods of 22 and 45 year due to the magnetic reversal and equatorial solar asymmetry, which cause corresponding oscillations of all Earth systems, including climate and weather, atmosphere and ocean circulations, geomagnetic field and core processes. A part of this energy variation is transformed to oscillations of the Earth rotation. A model of indirect mechanism of Earth rotation excitation during sunspot cycles is proposed, which is based on global water circulation and periodical mass transfer between oceans and polar ice caps. The oscillations of the mean sea level (MSL) with periods 11, 22 and 45 years are determined by sea level data for the last two centuries from 13 maregraph stations. The necessary energy of water evaporation, corresponding to the observed MSL variations is provided by TSI oscillations with amplitudes between 0.2-0.5W/m2, determined by means of reconstructed time series of the TSI since 1610. The determined mean Universal Time (UT1) amplitudes, corresponding to the 22-year and 45-year cycles of the solar activity are 185ms and 310ms. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The solar radio emissions in the decimetric frequency range (above 1 GHz) are very rich in temporal and spectral fine structures due to nonlinear processes occurring in the magnetic structures on the corresponding active regions. In this paper we characterize the singularity spectrum, f(α), for solar bursts observed at 1.6, 2.0 and 3 GHz. We interpret our findings as evidence of inhomogeneous plasma turbulence driving the underlying plasma emission process and discuss the nonlinear multifractal approach into the context of geoeffective solar active regions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Long-term trends in the solar spectral irradiance are important to determine the impact on Earth's climate. These long-term changes are thought to be caused mainly by changes in the surface area covered by small-scale magnetic elements. The direct measurement of the contrast to determine the impact of these small-scale magnetic elements is, however, limited to a few wavelengths, and is, even for space instruments, affected by scattered light and instrument defocus. In this work we calculate emergent intensities from 3-D simulations of solar magneto-convection and validate the outcome by comparing with observations from Hinode/SOT. In this manner we aim to construct the contrast at wavelengths ranging from the NUV to the FIR. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A numerical simulation with ENLIL+Cone model was carried out to study the propagation of the shock driven by the 2005 May 13 CME. We then conducted a statistical analysis on a subset of similar events, where a decameter-hectometric (DH) type II radio burst and a counterpart kilometric type II have been observed to be associated with each CME (DHkm CME). The simulation results show that fast CME-driven shocks experienced a rapid deceleration as they propagated through the corona and then kept a nearly constant speed traveling out into the heliosphere. Two improved methods are proposed to predict the fast CME-driven shock arrival time, which give the prediction errors of 3.43 and 6.83 hrs, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In our recent paper (Dorotovič et al. 2008a) we focused on a study of the Forbush decrease (FD) of January 17–18 and 21–22, 2005. It was shown that the corresponding recovery time can depend on the density of high-energy protons in the CME matter. In this paper we identified several additional events in the period between 1995 and 2007. We found that the majority of FDs studied is accompanied by an abrupt count increase in the proton channel P1 and by a simultaneous decrease in the channel P7 (GOES). However, the analysis of temporal evolution of all FDs did not confirm the hypothesis on different recovery time after FD as a function of the energy distribution of the particles penetrating into radiation belts of the Earth. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Both direct observations and reconstructions from various datasets, suggest that conditions were radically different during the Maunder Minimum (MM) than during the space era. Using an MHD model, we develop a set of feasible solutions to infer the properties of the solar wind during this interval. Additionally, we use these results to drive a global magnetospheric model. Finally, using the 2008/2009 solar minimum as an upper limit for MM conditions, we use results from the International Reference Ionosphere (ILI) model to speculate on the state of the ionosphere. The results describe interplanetary, magnetospheric, and ionospheric conditions that were substantially different than today. For example: (1) the solar wind density and magnetic field strength were an order of magnitude lower; (2) the Earth's magnetopause and shock standoff distances were a factor of two larger; and (3) the maximum electron density in the ionosphere was substantially lower.

We studied the relationship between successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and a long-lived geomagnetic storm (LLGMS) by examining the 1998 May 4 event. Five successive CMEs from the same active region and four interplanetary shocks were found to be associated with this LLGMS. We investigated the effect of successive and interacting CMEs on the LLGMS.To search for other articles by the author(s) go to: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

It is an important subject of space weather to forecast accurate arrival time of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at the Earth. Determination of initial speeds of CMEs is an important factor for this. Here, we estimated the initial speeds of CMEs using solar wind observations near 1 AU and compared these speeds with CME speeds measured by the SOHO coronagraph.To search for other articles by the author(s) go to: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We study solar irradiance variability. The current generation of models show that the irradiance since then has increased by between 0.9 and 1.5 W m−2. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]