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BackgroundTo our knowledge, there are no universal screening tools for substance dependence that (1) were developed using a population-based sample, (2) estimate total risk briefly and inexpensively by incorporating a relatively small number of well-established risk factors, and (3) aggregate risk factors using a simple algorithm. We created a universal screening tool that incorporates these features to identify adolescents at risk for persistent substance dependence in adulthood.MethodParticipants were members of a representative cohort of 1037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972–1973 and followed prospectively to age 38 years, with 95% retention. We assessed a small set of childhood and adolescent risk factors: family history of substance dependence, childhood psychopathology (conduct disorder, depression), early exposure to substances, frequent substance use in adolescence, sex, and childhood socioeconomic status. We defined the outcome (persistent substance dependence in adulthood) as dependence on one or more of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, or hard drugs at ⩾3 assessment ages: 21, 26, 32, and 38 years.ResultsA cumulative risk index, a simple sum of nine childhood and adolescent risk factors, predicted persistent substance dependence in adulthood with considerable accuracy (AUC = 0.80).ConclusionsA cumulative risk score can accurately predict which adolescents in the general population will develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

BackgroundChildhood psychotic symptoms have been used as a subclinical phenotype of schizophrenia in etiological research and as a target for preventative interventions. However, recent studies have cast doubt on the specificity of these symptoms for schizophrenia, suggesting alternative outcomes such as anxiety and depression. Using a prospective longitudinal birth cohort we investigated whether childhood psychotic symptoms predicted a diagnosis of schizophrenia or other psychiatric disorders by 38 years of age.MethodParticipants were drawn from a birth cohort of 1037 children from Dunedin, New Zealand, who were followed prospectively to 38 years of age (96% retention rate). Structured clinical interviews were administered at age 11 to assess psychotic symptoms and study members underwent psychiatric assessments at ages 18, 21, 26, 32 and 38 to obtain past-year DSM-III-R/IV diagnoses and self-reports of attempted suicides since adolescence.ResultsPsychotic symptoms at age 11 predicted elevated rates of research diagnoses of schizophrenia and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and also suicide attempts by age 38, even when controlling for gender, social class and childhood psychopathology. No significant associations were found for persistent anxiety, persistent depression, mania or persistent substance dependence. Very few of the children presenting with age-11 psychotic symptoms were free from disorder by age 38.ConclusionsChildhood psychotic symptoms were not specific to a diagnosis of schizophrenia in adulthood and thus future studies of early symptoms should be cautious in extrapolating findings only to this clinical disorder. However, these symptoms may be useful as a marker of adult mental health problems more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background. The close association between generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) prompts questions about how to characterize them in future diagnostic systems. We tested whether risk factors for MDD and GAD are similar or different.Method. The representative 1972-73 Dunedin birth cohort of 1037 males and females was followed to age 32 with 96% retention. Adult GAD and MDD were diagnosed at ages 18, 21, 26, and 32 years, and juvenile anxiety/depression were also taken into account. Thirteen prospective risk measures indexed domains of family history, adverse family environment, childhood behavior, and adolescent self-esteem and personality traits.Results. Co-morbid MDD+GAD was antedated by highly elevated risk factors broadly across all domains. MDD+GAD was further characterized by the earliest onset, most recurrence, and greatest use of mental health services and medication. Pure GAD had levels of risk factors similar to the elevated levels for co-morbid MDD+GAD; generally, pure MDD did not. Pure GAD had risks during childhood not shared by pure MDD, in domains of adverse family environment (low SES, somewhat more maltreatment) and childhood behavior (internalizing problems, conduct problems, somewhat more inhibited temperament). Pure MDD had risks not shared by pure GAD, in domains of family history (of depression) and personality (low positive emotionality).Conclusions. Specific antecedent risk factors for pure adult MDD versus GAD may suggest partly different etiological pathways. That GAD and co-morbid MDD+GAD share many risk markers suggests that the presence of GAD may signal a pathway toward relatively more severe internalizing disorder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to use longitudinal population-based data to examine the associations between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and risk for adverse outcomes in multiple life domains across adulthood. In 937 individuals followed from birth to age 45y, we assessed associations between CSA (retrospectively reported at age 26y) and the experience of 22 adverse outcomes in seven domains (physical, mental, sexual, interpersonal, economic, antisocial, multi-domain) from young adulthood to midlife (26 to 45y). Analyses controlled for sex, socioeconomic status, prospectively reported child harm and household dysfunction adverse childhood experiences, and adult sexual assault, and considered different definitions of CSA. After adjusting for confounders, CSA survivors were more likely than their peers to experience internalizing, externalizing, and thought disorders, suicide attempts, health risk behaviors, systemic inflammation, poor oral health, sexually transmitted diseases, high-conflict relationships, benefit use, financial difficulties, antisocial behavior, and cumulative problems across multiple domains in adulthood. In sum, CSA was associated with multiple persistent problems across adulthood, even after adjusting for confounding life stressors, and the risk for particular problems incremented with CSA severity. The higher risk for most specific problems was small to moderate, but the cumulative long-term effects across multiple domains reflect considerable individual and societal burden.

Background: Midlife adults are experiencing a crisis of deaths of despair (i.e. deaths from suicide, drug overdose, and alcohol-related liver disease). We tested the hypothesis that a syndrome of despair-related maladies at midlife is preceded by psychopathology during adolescence., Methods: Participants are members of a representative cohort of 1037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972-73 and followed to age 45 years, with 94% retention. Adolescent mental disorders were assessed in three diagnostic assessments at ages 11, 13, and 15 years. Indicators of despair-related maladies across four domains - suicidality, substance misuse, sleep problems, and pain - were assessed at age 45 using multi-modal measures including self-report, informant-report, and national register data., Results: We identified and validated a syndrome of despair-related maladies at midlife involving suicidality, substance misuse, sleep problems, and pain. Adults who exhibited a more severe syndrome of despair-related maladies at midlife tended to have had early-onset emotional and behavioral disorders [ β = 0.23, 95% CI (0.16-0.30), p < 0.001], even after adjusting for sex, childhood SES, and childhood IQ. A more pronounced midlife despair syndrome was observed among adults who, as adolescents, were diagnosed with a greater number of mental disorders [ β = 0.26, 95% CI (0.19-0.33), p < 0.001]. Tests of diagnostic specificity revealed that associations generalized across different adolescent mental disorders., Conclusions: Midlife adults who exhibited a more severe syndrome of despair-related maladies tended to have had psychopathology as adolescents. Prevention and treatment of adolescent psychopathology may mitigate despair-related maladies at midlife and ultimately reduce deaths of despair.

Neuropsychological evidence supports the developmental taxonomy theory of antisocial behavior, suggesting that abnormal brain development distinguishes life-course-persistent from adolescence-limited antisocial behavior. Recent neuroimaging work confirmed that prospectively-measured life-course-persistent antisocial behavior is associated with differences in cortical brain structure. Whether this extends to subcortical brain structures remains uninvestigated. This study compared subcortical gray-matter volumes between 672 members of the Dunedin Study previously defined as exhibiting life-course-persistent, adolescence-limited or low-level antisocial behavior based on repeated assessments at ages 7-26 years. Gray-matter volumes of 10 subcortical structures were compared across groups. The life-course-persistent group had lower volumes of amygdala, brain stem, cerebellum, hippocampus, pallidum, thalamus, and ventral diencephalon compared to the low-antisocial group. Differences between life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited individuals were comparable in effect size to differences between life-course-persistent and low-antisocial individuals, but were not statistically significant due to less statistical power. Gray-matter volumes in adolescence-limited individuals were near the norm in this population-representative cohort and similar to volumes in low-antisocial individuals. Although this study could not establish causal links between brain volume and antisocial behavior, it constitutes new biological evidence that all people with antisocial behavior are not the same, supporting a need for greater developmental and diagnostic precision in clinical, forensic, and policy-based interventions.

Cognitive impairment has been identified as an important aspect of major depressive disorder (MDD). We tested two theories regarding the association between MDD and cognitive functioning using data from longitudinal cohort studies. One theory, the cognitive reserve hypothesis, suggests that higher cognitive ability in childhood decreases risk of later MDD. The second, the scarring hypothesis, instead suggests that MDD leads to persistent cognitive deficits following disorder onset. We tested both theories in the Dunedin Study, a population-representative cohort followed from birth to midlife and assessed repeatedly for both cognitive functioning and psychopathology. We also used data from the Environmental Risk Longitudinal Twin Study to test whether childhood cognitive functioning predicts future MDD risk independent of family-wide and genetic risk using a discordant twin design. Contrary to both hypotheses, we found that childhood cognitive functioning did not predict future risk of MDD, nor did study members with a past history of MDD show evidence of greater cognitive decline unless MDD was accompanied by other comorbid psychiatric conditions. Our results thus suggest that low cognitive functioning is related to comorbidity, but is neither an antecedent nor an enduring consequence of MDD. Future research may benefit from considering cognitive deficits that occur during depressive episodes from a transdiagnostic perspective.

The purpose of the present study is to identify child and adult correlates that differentiate (a) individuals with persistent alcohol dependence from individuals with developmentally limited alcohol dependence and (b) individuals with adult-onset alcohol dependence from individuals who never diagnose. There are 1,037 members of the Dunedin Longitudinal Study, which is a birth cohort followed prospectively from birth until age 32. Past-year DSM-IV alcohol dependence diagnoses are ascertained with structured diagnostic interviews at ages 18, 21, 26, and 32. Individuals are classified as developmentally limited, persistent, or adult-onset subtypes based on their time-ordered pattern of diagnoses. The persistent subtype generally exhibits the worst scores on all correlates, including family psychiatric history, adolescent and adult externalizing and internalizing problems, adolescent and adult substance use, adult quality of life, and coping strategies. The prospective predictors that distinguished them from the developmentally limited subtype involved family liability, adolescent negative affectivity, daily alcohol use, and frequent marijuana use. Furthermore, young people who develop the persistent subtype of alcohol dependence are distinguished from the developmentally limited subtype by an inability to reduce drinking and by continued use despite problems by age 18. The adult-onset group members are virtually indistinguishable from ordinary cohort members as children or adolescents; however, in adulthood, adult-onset cases are distinguished by problems with depression, substance use, stress, and strategies for coping with stress. Information about age of onset and developmental course is fundamental for identifying subtypes of alcohol dependence. Subtype-specific etiologies point to targeted prevention and intervention efforts based on the characteristics of each subtype.

This article reports on the childhood origins and adult outcomes of female versus male antisocial behavior trajectories in the Dunedin longitudinal study. Four antisocial behavior trajectory groups were identified among females and males using general growth mixture modeling and included life-course persistent (LCP), adolescent-onset, childhood-limited, and low trajectory groups. During childhood, both LCP females and males were characterized by social, familial and neurodevelopmental risk factors, whereas those on the adolescent-onset pathway were not. At age 32, women and men on the LCP pathway were engaging in serious violence and experiencing significant mental health, physical health, and economic problems. Females and males on the adolescent-onset pathway were also experiencing difficulties at age 32, although to a lesser extent. Although more males than females followed the LCP trajectory, findings support similarities across gender with respect to developmental trajectories of antisocial behavior and their associated childhood origins and adult consequences. Implications for theory, research, and practice are discussed.

We examined neuropsychological functioning at age 13 years in adolescents who later developed schizophreniform disorder, compared with healthy controls and with adolescents diagnosed as having had a manic episode or depression or anxiety disorder. Participants were from an unselected birth cohort. Attentional, executive and motor impairments at age 13 were found in those who later fulfilled diagnostic criteria for schizophreniform disorder, suggesting that these impairments may be the earliest emerging neuropsychological impairments in schizophrenia-related disorders.

This article reports a comparison on outcomes of 26-year-old males who were defined several years ago in the Dunedin longitudinal study as exhibiting childhood-onset versus adolescent-onset antisocial behavior and who were indistinguishable on delinquent offending in adolescence. Previous studies of these groups in childhood and adolescence showed that childhood-onset delinquents had inadequate parenting, neurocognitive problems, undercontrolled temperament, severe hyperactivity, psychopathic personality traits, and violent behavior. Adolescent-onset delinquents were not distinguished by these features. Here followed to age 26 years, the childhood-onset delinquents were the most elevated on psychopathic personality traits, mental-health problems, substance dependence, numbers of children, financial problems, work problems, and drug-related and violent crime, including violence against women and children. The adolescent-onset delinquents at 26 years were less extreme but elevated on impulsive personality traits, mental-health problems, substance dependence, financial problems, and property offenses. A third group of men who had been aggressive as children but not very delinquent as adolescents emerged as low-level chronic offenders who were anxious, depressed, socially isolated, and had financial and work problems. These findings support the theory of life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited antisocial behavior but also extend it. Findings recommend intervention with all aggressive children and with all delinquent adolescents, to prevent a variety of maladjustments in adult life.