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We quantify and explain the firm responses and worker impacts of foreign demand shocks to domestic production networks. To capture that firms can be indirectly exposed to such shocks by buying from or selling to domestic firms that import or export, we use Belgian data with information on both domestic firm-to-firm sales and foreign trade transactions. Our estimates of firm responses suggest that Belgian firms pass on a large share of a foreign demand shock to their domestic suppliers, face upward-sloping labor supply curves, and have sizable fixed overhead costs in labor. Motivated and guided by these findings, we develop and estimate an equilibrium model that allows us to study how idiosyncratic and aggregate changes in foreign demand propagate through a small open economy and affect firms and workers. Our results suggest that the way the labor market is typically modeled in existing research on foreign demand shocks - with no fixed costs and perfectly elastic labor supply - would grossly understate the decline in real wages due to an increase in foreign tariffs.

To combat climate change, governments are taking an increasing number of technologyspecific measures to support green technologies. In this paper, we look at the very generous subsidy policies to solar PVs in the three regions of Belgium to ask the question of how voters responded to these programs. We provide evidence that voters did not reward the incumbent government that was responsible for the program, as predicted by the 'buying-votes' hypothesis. Instead, we find that voters punish the incumbent government because of the increasing awareness of the high financing costs. These did not only affect the non-adopting electricity consumers who did not benefit from the programs, but also the adopting prosumers, who saw unannounced new costs such as the introduction of prosumer fees to get access to the grid.

We use Belgian data with information on domestic firm-to-firm sales and foreign trade transactions to study how international trade affects firm efficiency and real wages. The data allow us to accurately construct the domestic production network of the Belgian economy, revealing several new empirical facts about firms' indirect exposure to foreign trade through their domestic suppliers and buyers. We use this data to develop and estimate models of domestic production networks and international trade. We first consider a model of trade with an exogenous network structure, which gives analytical solutions for the effects of a change in the price of foreign goods on firms' production costs and real wages. To examine how gains-from-trade calculations change if buyer-supplier links are allowed to form or break in response to changes in the price of foreign goods, we next develop a model of trade with endogenous network formation. We take both models to the data and compare the empirical results to those we obtain using existing approaches. This comparison highlights the relevance of data on and modeling of domestic production networks in studies of international trade.

In the global recession of 2009, exports declined precipitously in many countries. We illustrate with firm-level data for Belgium and Peru that the decline was very sudden and almost entirely due to lower export sales by existing exporters. After the recession, exports rebounded almost equally quickly and we evaluate whether export promotion programs were an effective tool aiding this recovery. We show that firms taking advantage of this type of support did better during the crisis, controlling flexibly for systematic differences between supported and control firms. The primary mechanism we identify is that supported firms are generally more likely to survive on the export market and, in particular, are more likely to continue exporting to countries hit by the financial crisis.

The paper forecasts the residential property price index in Belgium with a dynamic factor model (DFM) estimated with a dataset of macro-economic variables describing the Belgian and euro area economy. The model is validated with out-of-sample forecasts which are obtained recursively over an expanding window over the period 2000q1-2012q4. We illustrate how the model reads information from mortgage loans, interest rates, GDP and inflation to revise the residential property price forecast as a result of a change in assumptions for the future paths of these variables.

In December 2013 the National Bank of Belgium introduced a sectoral capital requirement aimed at strengthening the resilience of Belgian banks against adverse developments in the real estate market. This paper assesses the impact of this macroprudential measure on mortgage lending spreads. Our results indicate that affected banks reacted heterogeneously to the introduction of the measure. Specifically, mortgage-specialised and capital-constrained banks increase mortgage lending spreads by a greater amount. As expected, the impact of the measure on mortgage loan pricing has been rather modest in economic terms.

This paper presents the Belgian inter-firm network for the years 2002 to 2012. Combining raw data from VAT listings, VAT declarations and annual accounts information, we build a unique and consistent database containing values of transactions between enterprises in the Belgian economy. The dataset spans Primary Industries, Manufacturing, Utilities, Market Services and Non-Market Services. This dataset, unparalleled in coverage at the firm-to-firm level and its panel dimension, allows one to analyze a broad spectrum of research questions in industrial organization, international trade, network theory etc. As a simple example of the potential of this dataset, we evaluate the position of enterprises in the Belgian network, their distance to final demand and their relationship with exports and imports. The degree of upstreamness, defined as a weighted distance to final demand, of the average enterprise is 1.6, ranging between 1 and 9.5. While only 5 % of enterprises export, 82 % of the enterprises in the Belgian network are producing goods and services that are either directly or indirectly exported after transformation or use. On the ip side, only 9 % of enterprises are importers but 99 % of firms are either importers or have importers in their supply chain and therefore consume imported inputs indirectly. However, we find large interand intra-sectoral as well as inter-regional heterogeneity in enterprise positions in the Belgian production network.

Policy-making institutions such as the European Commission, the ECB and the OECD often use unit labor costs as a measure of international competitiveness. The goal of this paper is to examine how well this measure is related to international export performance at the firm level. To this end, we use Belgian firm-level data for the period 1999-2010 to analyze the impact of unit labor costs on exports. We use exports adjusted for their import content. We find a statistically significant negative effect of unit labor costs on export performance of firms with an estimated elasticity of the intensive margin of exports ranging between -0.2 and -0.4. This result is robust to various specifications, including firm, time and sector fixed effects and estimation approaches. We find that this elasticity varies between sectors and between firms, with firms that are more labor-intensive having a higher elasticity of exports with respect to unit labor costs. The micro data also enable us to analyze the impact of unit labor costs on the extensive margin. Our results show that higher unit labor costs reduce the probability of starting to export for non-exporters and increase the probability of exporters stopping. While our results show that unit labor costs have an impact on the intensive margin and extensive margin of firm-level exports, the effect is rather low, suggesting that passthrough of costs into prices is limited or that demand for exported products is not elastic. The latter is consistent with recent trade models emphasizing that not only relative costs, but also demand factors such as quality and taste matter for explaining firm-level exports.

On the basis of a concatenation of fifteen Belgian household budget surveys from 1995/96 to 2010, we investigate the impact of demographic factors, such as ageing and changing household composition, on saving behaviour. Not focusing on high frequency events (e.g. business cycles and unexpected shock), we find that saving behaviour is fundamentally driven by the change in household size and composition. Older people seem to be more impatient, and thus save less, though this evidence is not clear cut. Contrary to the usual practice of considering the allocation of household income over consumption and saving to be the result of one particular household’s member decision, we present here a more individually based analysis of the data. By lack of true panel data, the assumptions that have to be made for such an approach (identical intertemporal preferences among household members) are severe, but not necessarily less preferable than those, if any, underlying the common practice of assuming one single individual decision maker.

Belgium has one of the largest gaps in labour market outcomes between natives and individuals of foreign origin. One might expect that the children of migrants (the so-called second generation) would perform better than the first generation, as they ought to have a better knowledge of the local language, better educational qualifications and greater opportunities for work experience in the domestic labour market. On the basis of data from the ad hoc module of 2008 Labour Force Survey (LFS) we find that employment rates for generation migrants in Belgium are hardly better than those for first generation migrants. This finding stands in marked contrast what is found in neighbouring countries. Using a unique combination of data sources, we examine the labour market position of second-generation migrants in more depth. We find considerable variation in labour market outcomes by country of origin and a Fairlie decomposition yields that education is an important explanatory factor of the employment rate gap. Yet there still remains a large unexplained part.

During the 2008-2009 crisis trade in goods experienced the deepest decline ever recorded. Surprisingly, trade in services came through the crisis unscathed and some service categories carelessly stuck to their growth paths. Using firm-product-destination exports for Belgium, we show that the particular resilience of services is explained by a significantly lower elasticity to demand in export markets. More specifically, services exports tend to decline on average 5% less than exports of goods following a 1% decrease in GDP growth in destination countries. Most of this effect is accounted for by business services, it is more pronounced with respect to durables than to consumable products and it is stronger for OECD exports than for non-OECD. In terms of economic magnitude, if goods had the same elasticity to GDP growth of services, they would have decreased of about half. Conversely, if services had the same elasticity of goods, their fall would have been more than thrice as much.

This paper determines the relative importance of technical efficiency and reallocation for aggregate productivity growth in a small open European economy. To this end we use a dataset containing all Belgian firms active in the private sector, both services and manufacturing. We observe at the firm level a number of factors that have been shown to be drivers of productivity differences across firms. More precisely, we have information on human capital such as the level of education and the amount of on-the-job training received by the employees. Moreover we observe the international activities of the firms such as imports and exports. This allows us to make a careful analysis of the micro foundations of aggregate productivity growth by applying the decomposition introduced by Petrin and Levinsohn (2012). The outcome of this exercise will not only provide us with a better understanding of the slowdown of productivity growth in Europe over the past decades, but also give an indication on the role of different productivity drivers in this process.

Using detailed firm-product level quarterly data, we develop an estimation framework of a Multi-Product Production Function (MPPF) and analyse firm-product level TFP estimations at various levels (industries, products). After documenting our estimation results, we relate productivity estimates with import competition, using firm and product level measures of import competition. We find that if productivity at the firm level tends to positively react to increased import competition, the multi-product firms response varies according to the relative importance of the product that faces stronger import competition in the firm’s product portfolio. When import competition associated to the main product of a firm increases, the firm tend to increase its efficiency in producing that core product, in which it has a productivity advantage. However, when the degree of foreign competition increases for non core products of a firm, it tends to lower its efficiency in producing those goods.

This study assesses the economic importance of air transport and airport activities in Belgium in terms of value added, employment and investment over the 2009-2012 period 1 . The sector considered embraces not only the activities directly connected with air transport, but also all the activities that take place on site at the six Belgian airports (Antwerp, Brussels, Charleroi, Kortrijk, Liège and Ostend). The study reviews the direct and indirect effects of the sector on the basis of microeconomic data (mainly obtained from the Central Balance Sheet Office) and macroeconomic data (from the National Accounts Institute). It also includes an analysis of the social balance sheet and certain ratios using Central Balance Sheet Office data. In 2012, air transport and airport activities generated € 5.6 billion in direct and indirect value added (i.e. 1.5 % of Belgian GDP) and employed 66,200 people in full-time equivalents (FTEs) either directly or indirectly (1.7 % of domestic employment). Brussels Airport is the country’s biggest airport in terms of passenger traffic, but has seen its leading position somewhat eroded by Charleroi, which with Ryanair has staged robust growth in the low-cost segment. Meanwhile, Liège has assumed the position of leading cargo airport and currently accounts for over half of total cargo traffic to and from Belgium. Charleroi and Liège are the fastest growing airports in terms of value added and employment. With the exception of Ostend, the Flemish regional airports have also proved resilient on both counts, while Brussels Airport may be described as holding more or less steady.

The aim of this paper is to examine causal effects of outward foreign direct investment activities of corporations that start expanding abroad on a large number of domestic performance indicators. Our results indicate that there is no evidence in our data to show that FDI has statistically significant impact on productivity, employment and output. The only statistically significant result indicates that FDI causes positive growth in export intensity. On the other hand when we restrict our sample to Belgian manufacturing firms only, we do find that switching to OFDI causes a positive growth in TFP. This effect is coupled with an increase in wages and exports. On the other hand, we do not find any statistically significant evidence that internationalization of Belgian firms causes loss of employment for the unskilled worker as in other studies

We evaluate the impact of international competition on firm-level perfor- mance in Belgium. In the manufacturing sector we consider both the impact of global competition through measures of import penetration and the impact of within-EU competitiveness using measures of relative labor cost. In selected manufacturing sectors we identify the strength of international competition through a firm's proximity to the border. In both instances, we consider the impact on a variety of performance dimensions to learn about the mechanisms and about firms' adjustment to these competitive pressures

Using firm-level data for Belgium, we study the validity of Hicks neutrality in several sectors that cover the spectrum of knowledge intensity. We find that Hicks neutrality is clearly not supported by the data in different sectors. The results are not sensitive to altering the specification of the technology by including firm age and R&D into the analysis. We also reject Hicks neutrality for a balanced sample, pointing to `within-firm' factor-biased technical change and we also find factor-biased technical change in the pre-crisis era, indicating that unobserved heterogeneity in demand does not drive the results. Overall, our results point towards low-skilled laboursaving and materials-using technical change. So far, this has received little attention and may be linked to ofshoring and global value chain networks. Finally, we show that nonparametric estimates of TFP change that allow for factor biases support the evidence of the recent slowdown in TFP growth in many manufacturing sectors in Belgium. Estimations of TFP and technical change are shown to be sensitive to the estimation method and the specification of the factor bias of technical change.

We use a unique longitudinal dataset that tracks the exporting behavior of Belgian manufacturing firms between 1997 and 2009. We ask how slack resources, including financial and human resource slack, influence firms’ exporting behavior. Our findings suggest that both types of slack resources have an inverted U-shaped relationship with the decision to export. This implies that higher levels of slack resources positively influence the likelihood of firms exporting, but too much slack negatively influences this likelihood. After controlling for the decision to export, we find no significant relationship between slack resources and export intensity. Nevertheless, we do find an inverted U-shaped relationship between slack resources and export diversity. Overall, this study provides new insight into how different types of slack resources influence different aspects of firms’ exporting behavior.

This study provides a detailed and easy-to read overview of the railway liberalisation in Belgium and the three neighbouring countries. The European Union's liberalisation Directives are often complex and are implemented in very specific ways in the different Member States. The analysis goes into some detail about the Commission's underlying motives and economic theories for letting network industries, which had previously been regarded as natural monopolies, convert into competitive enterprises with the separation of infrastructure from operations. The study takes a look at the impact of the European rail liberalisation Directives in Belgium and its neighbouring countries - France, Germany and the Netherlands. There are considerable variations in the way in which the Directives are applied. It is reflected in the way in which the separation of the infrastructure and the transport services within the railway companies was carried out, and in the degree of opening of the market in freight and passenger transport. The analysis shows that the dominance of the former monopolists in the different Member States means that private rail operators face major obstacles. The financial analysis of the railway companies reveals wide variations in economic performance. The combination of better balance sheet figures and a bigger domestic market means that some major players in Europe are financially better off, giving them superiority over the smaller railway companies. This raises the question whether these circumstances will ultimately lead to distortion of competition.

This paper revisits the "footloose" nature of multinational firms (MNFs) hypothesis. Using firm-level data for Belgium over the period 1997-2008, we rely on a Probit model and take into account the endogeneity of the determinants of firm exit. Our results may be summarised as follows. First, the unconditional exit probability of MNFs is lower than that of domestic firms. Second, controlling for firm and sector characteristics - firm age, Total Factor Productivity, sunk costs, size, competition on the product market, sector-level value added growth, and sector dummies - the difference between the exit probability of MNFs and domestic firms becomes positive. Third, our results show that MNFs have a lower sensitivity to sunk costs and size than do domestic firms, which may be interpreted as lower exit barriers due to greater possibilities of relocating tangible and intangible assets to foreign affiliates.

In this paper we compare static and dynamic features of trade in goods and trade in services at the micro level. By using data from the same country, Belgium, and by making use of a common definition of transaction, we are able to enrich the existing qualitative comparisons with quantitative insights and to fill the existing gap in the literature. First, we analyze static features of trade such as participation rates, firms characteristics, heterogeneity, concentration and trade variation. Then, we explore dynamic aspects focusing on entry, exit, survival and growth strategy in foreign markets. From a static perspective, our results reveal that there are limited qualitative differences between trade in goods and trade in services and even the quantitative ones do not justify the need of different theoretical models. In the time dimension instead, some key peculiarities of services offer new insights for differentiating between the two.

At the request of the Minister for Climate and Energy, Paul Magnette, who is also responsible for Consumer Affairs, the NBB's Microeconomic Analysis Service conducted an investigation into the link between payment arrears for mobile telephony and arrears on loan repayments. In this inquiry, which was carried out using data drawn from the Preventel records and from the Central Individual Credit Register, the profile of people with arrears for both types of debt was also analysed. The profile analysis shows that defaulters with a Preventel registration form a specific group among CICR defaulters. People with payment arrears for both types of debt tend to have a demographic and credit profile which to a large extent matches that of CICR defaulters with no mobile phone payment arrears, but a few differences were also found between both groups of defaulters. A number of trends in borrowing and repayment behaviour turn out to be much more pronounced in the first of these two defaulter groups, but it is above all in regard to the age aspect that the differences are most striking. In cases where people have fallen behind in their payments for both types of debt, it actually turns out to be a younger group. Generally speaking, these borrowers take out their first loan at an earlier age, and they also tend to run up their first arrears when they are younger. The inquiry further revealed that there is a statistically significant link between payment arrears for mobile telephony and credit arrears, and this applies for various definitions of payment arrears. Repayment problems generally tend to emerge sooner in payment arrears for mobile telephony bills than in arrears on loans. A simple logistic regression model indicates that dummy variables for a Preventel registration, and for the duration of that registration, still have a definite predictive value with regard to credit arrears, after controlling for a number of demographic and credit variables in the model. As the assessment of the credit risk of private individuals is based on a set of socio-economic variables, payment arrears for mobile telephony could therefore be a useful complementary variable in that assessment.

This paper empirically examines the effects of discriminatory fees on ATM investment and welfare, and considers the role of coordination in ATM investment between banks. Our main findings are that foreign fees tend to reduce ATM availability and (consumer) welfare, whereas surcharges positively affect ATM availability and the different welfare components when the consumers' price elasticity is not too large. Second, an organization of the ATM market that contains some degree of coordination between the banks may be desirable from a welfare perspective. Finally, ATM availability is always higher when a social planner decides on discriminatory fees and ATM investment to maximize total welfare. This implies that there is underinvestment in ATMs, even in the presence of discriminatory fees

We provide an analysis of the 2008-2009 trade collapse using microdata from a small open economy, Belgium. First, we find that changes in firm-country-product exports and imports occurred mostly at the intensive margin: the number of firms, the average number of destination and origin markets per firm, and the average number of products per market changed only very little. Second, econometric analysis reveals some composition effects in the intensive margin fall along firm, product and country characteristics. The most important factor explaining changes in exports is the destination country's growth rate of GDP. Had growth rates in 2008-2009 been the same as in 2007-2008, Belgian exports would have fallen by about 57% less than what we observe. Trade in consumer durables and capital goods fell more severely than trade in other product categories, which explains another 22% of the observed fall. Financial variables and involvement in global value chains have some explanatory power on the exports and imports fall respectively, but appear to have affected domestic operations in equal proportion. More generally, exports-to-turnover and imports-to-intermediates ratios at the firm level did neither systematically decrease nor reveal strong firm- or sector-specific patterns. Overall, our results point to a demand-side explanation: the fall in trade was mostly driven by the fall in economic activity. It is not a trade crisis - just a trade collapse.

Focusing on the timing and geographical scope of import and export activities of Belgian small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), the paper analyzes the importance, structural features and performance implications of firms that recently started to export following the geographical configuration of their international trade operations and their year of establishment. The analysis allows us to separate firms that started to export in the period 1998-2005 into four distinct groups: born internationals, i.e. firms which were established less than five years before their first year of exporting and exporting to less than five countries in the same region (regional focus), born globals; young firms but with a more internationally diversified export portfolio, born again globals, i.e. firms similar to born globals but established longer than five years before their first exports and traditional internationalizers, firms established more than five years before their first export operations characterized by a narrow geographical scope of their exports. We find SME export growth to be driven by a small group of born global firms, accounting for 60 per cent of the total increase in SME exports between 1998 and 2005. Analyzing the structural feature of the different types of firms, we find born globals to be more productive and characterized by a higher R&D spending and intangible asset intensity compared to other types of traders. We next test if the typology matters for the observed export performance differences across firms over time. We find that born globals grow faster in terms of export sales, have a stronger commitment to export markets and are more likely to continue exporting. Born globals also have the highest failure rate, traditional internationalizers the lowest. These findings suggest strong risk/return tradeoffs among the strategies chosen by the different types of firms. Performing a dynamic analysis of changes in trade configurations of firms over the observation period, we investigate how these changes have an impact on performance. Specific attention is paid to firms that stop importing/exporting. Especially firms that move from being exporters to become two-way traders, i.e. also starting to import goods from other countries show the most marked increases in turnover and productivity. The final part of the study analyzes the relationship between export and import activities to particular countries following the sequence in which they occur. We find that the probability to start importing from a country is 4 times higher for firms already exporting to that country than for trading SMEs without prior export experience in that country.

New empirical and theoretical work has highlighted the importance of multi-product firms in international tradeflows. We examine multi-product exporters in the small open economy of Belgium, considering their importance and the relationship between the margins of trade and firm productivity, both across firms and within firms over time. In addition, we employ proxies for trade costs to quantify the extensive and intensive margin adjustments of trade. Linking production and export data at the firm-product level, we discover new and, heretofore, unknown facts about multi-product manufacturing exporters. The large majority of Belgian manufacturing firms export products that they do not produce. More than three quarters of the exported products and more than one quarter of export value from Belgian manufacturers are in goods that are not produced by the firm, so-called Carry-Along Trade (CAT). CAT exports are concentrated in the largest and most productive firms and the value of CAT exports responds differently to variation in firm productivity and trade costs than does the export value of goods that the firm produces.

This paper analyses to what extent the decision to start exporting may be subject to spillovers of the internationalisation behaviour of other (foreign and domestic) firms. We distinguish between two possible channels: effects on productivity and effects on the perceived level of sunk costs of exporting. For both channels, we consider geographical and activity or industry-based linkages between firms. For a sample Belgian firms we find evidence of significant spillovers on productivity as well as productivity-independent spillovers on the decision to start exporting. Spillovers seem more substantial in the geographical dimension than in terms of competitor, client or supplier links, except for the impact of multinationals on the productivity of domestic firms.

This paper examines whether multinational companies differ in their employment adjustment from domestic firms, on the basis of a panel of Belgian firms for the period 1997-2007. We focus on incumbent firms as, in general, they account for the largest fraction of net employment creation, especially among multinational firms (MNFs). We obtain structural estimates of adjustment cost parameters for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers, domestic firms, and MNFs. We find evidence of convex, asymmetric (in the sense that it is more expensive to downsize than to upsize) and cross adjustment costs (indicating costly substitution between workers). To adjust white-collar employment seems to be around half as costly for MNFs as for domestic firms. There is no difference between Belgian MNFs and foreign MNFs. A small fraction of the gap between the adjustment costs of MNFs and domestic firms may be explained by the use of fixed-term contracts and early retirement. Controlling for firm size does not yield robust conclusions; the cost advantage of MNFs may diminish, vanish or turn into a disadvantage.

"A century of macroeconomic and monetary thought at the National Bank of Belgium" traces the history of economic research at the National Bank of Belgium, from the early decades of the 20th century to its present functioning in the Eurosystem. The study also goes into the major economic policy debates, as well as the specific lines of macroeconomic and monetary thinking at the National Bank of Belgium. The focus is very much on the role of the Research Department in policymaking and its dialogue (and debates) with the academic community

In this paper we investigate the determinants of the dramatic increase in services tradability focusing on the extensive margin of the phenomenon. We use balance sheet and firm-level service trade information over the period 1995-2005 provided by the National Bank of Belgium and we merge it with information on the evolution of information technology use and tasks performed by workers from the qualification and career survey provided by the BIBB-IAB. We show that technological change, measured either by the more intensive use of information technologies or by changes in the task content of jobs, has substantially contributed to the increase in the number of service-trading firms. Interestingly, we find evidence of a churning effect. While technological change has induced net entry into service trading, it has also increased the likelihood of both gross entry and exit of firms. Furthermore, our evidence suggests that due to the peculiar nature of services provision, the change in the tasks content of jobs is a better measure of technological change than the use of information technologies. Our results are robust to controlling for service trade liberalization and offshoring.

Assessing the impacts of bank mergers on small firms requires separating borrowers with single versus multiple banking relationships and distinguishing the three alternatives of "staying," "dropping," and "switching" of relationship. Single-relationship borrowers who "switch" to another bank following a merger will be less harmed than those whose relationship is "dropped" and not replaced. Using Belgian data, we find that single-relationship borrowers of target banks are more likely than other borrowers to be dropped. We track post-merger performance and show that many dropped target-bank borrowers are harmed by the merger. Multiple-relationship borrowers are less harmed, as they can better hedge against relationship discontinuations

Alexandre Lamfalussy has been highly influential in the process of European monetary and financial unification. In this paper we will analyse the work of the "Young Lamfalussy" (from the mid 1950s to the mid 1960s). Lamfalussy started his career as an academic, focusing on growth theory and Belgian and European growth patterns in the post-war period. His work is still considered to be influential in the recent literature on Europe's post-war economic growth. It fits nicely into the Keynesian tradition: Lamfalussy's analytical frameworks were often inspired by Keynesian models, in his analysis he emphasised vicious and virtuous circles in the economy and, in his policy conclusions, he was a clear partisan of more planning. However, certain elements, typical also of Lamfalussy's later work, were already present, not least a strong European conviction and an eclectic approach towards economics, blending economic theory and empirical data beautifully to elucidate crucial policy problems

The paper describes job flows in Belgium using micro data at the firm level collected through the annual social balance sheets that companies have to file with the National Bank of Belgium. The coverage of the study is very broad: all industries and commercial services are included. We contribute to the previous literature by studying a long period from 1998 to 2006, covering both upturns and downturns in the Belgian economy. Furthermore, data from the social balance sheets make it possible to take into account the heterogeneity of the workforce, on top of the eterogeneity of firms themselves: job flows are broken down by socio-professional status and type of employment contract

In this paper, we estimate the degree of price stickiness in Belgium using the NBB business survey. Compared to similar empirical exercises based on consumer or producer price data, the micro data set used allows us to cover most of the Belgian economy in one exercise and therefore provides a better estimate of the overall degree of price stickiness. Based on our estimates, 19.2% of prices are changed each month. In the manufacturing sector and the trade sectors, the frequency of price changes is close to 24.5%. In the construction sector the frequency of price changes is close to 20.5% and in the B2B service sectors it is almost 9%. Econometric analyses of the determinants of the sectoral frequency of price changes indicate, on the one hand, that the cost structure is the main explanatory variable of the sectoral discrepancies. On the other hand, we find that domestic competition does not seem to explain an excess or shortage of price changes at the sectoral level

This paper aims to document and analyse the use of fixed-term contracts (FTC) and to analyse the dynamics of labour adjustment by type of labour contract at the firm level, drawing on the detailed breakdown of both the labour force and labour entries and exits that are available in the "Belgian Firms' Social Balance Sheets" dataset. It also aims to investigate the structure of labour adjustment costs by type of labour contract, using the methodology proposed by Goux, Maurin and Pauchet (2001). Results first indicate that flexible labour contracts are not only used to facilitate short-term labour adjustment but also as a screening device. The findings also suggest that when a firm decides to introduce flexible labour into its production process, it does also this to meet long-run objectives such as implementing minimising costs innovations. It is further estimated that the introduction of FTCs does not seem to affect the speed of indefinite-term contracts (ITC) adjustment. Our results also tend to indicate that the FTC is a key adjustment variable in response to cost shocks and to unexpected demand fluctuations while, in response to expected fluctuations in output, firms then prefer to adjust their level of permanent employment. Finally, and as far as the structure of labour adjustment costs in Belgium is concerned, the marginal recruitment cost under an ITC represents 12.4% of the marginal termination cost of ITC, while the marginal cost associated with the recruitment under an FTC only accounts for 0.8% of its ITC counterpart

This study is a publication issued by the Microeconomic Analysis service of the National Bank of Belgium, in partnership with the Department of Transport and Regional Economics of the University of Antwerp (UA). It is the outcome of a first research project on the Belgian airport and air transport sector. The former relates to the economic activities within the airports of Antwerp, Brussels, Charleroi, Kortrijk, Liège and Ostend, while the latter concentrates on the air transport business as a whole. In the past few years, the logistics business has come to play a significant part in income creation in our country, whose economy is to a large extent driven by services1. Air transport and airports in particular are driving forces in this context, not only in terms of business generated within the air transport cluster, but also in terms of airports' attractiveness. On world scale an overall growth of cargo and passengers could be observed in the last ten years. However, the air transport sector has undergone a major crisis during the 2001-2003 period, when passenger traffic numbers first fell sharply and then stagnated. Only after 2003 this activity has picked up again and this until the third quarter of 2008. Cargo traffic on its part recovered already in 2002. In Belgium, a similar evolution can be observed. It should be stressed however that between 1997 and 2007 cargo volumes grew much faster than passenger traffic did. The rankings of European airports underline the importance of cargo traffic for Belgium: In 2006 Brussels, Liège and Ostend-Bruges respectively occupy ranks 6, 8, and 20 in the European cargo airport top 20, while for passenger airports, Brussels can only be found at the end of the top 20. In this study, a sectoral approach has been followed by focusing, for every airport, on two major economic activity components: the air transport cluster on the one hand and other airport-related sectors on the other hand. In that respect, annual accounts data from the Central Balance Sheet Office were used for the calculation of direct effects, the social balance sheet analysis and the study of financial ratios. Due to an inevitable time lag in the data provision, the analysis was limited to 2006. Like in other sectoral studies published by the Bank, indirect effects have also been estimated on the basis of data from the National Accounts Institute. In 2006, the total activities under review –direct and indirect, inside and outside airports- accounted for roughly 6.2 billion euro, i.e. 2 p.c. of Belgium's GDP and domestic employment. Considering the direct effects only, these percentages both amounted to 0.8 p.c. The three major airports, i.e. Brussels, Charleroi and Liège, alone account for 95.2 p.c. of the direct value added generated by the six airports under review. They represent 0.5 p.c. of Belgian GDP and, taking account of the indirect effects, 1.1 p.c. of the national income. Furthermore, it has to be pointed out that most Belgian airports are specialised. While the airports of Liège and Ostend focus on air cargo, Charleroi Airport deals mostly with low-cost passenger transport. Moreover, the smaller regional airports like Antwerp and Kortrijk focus on business travel. The analysis was completed in December 2008

This paper applies the theory of finite Markov chains to analyse the demographic evolution of Belgian enterprises. While other methodologies concentrate on the entry and exit of firms, the Markov approach also analyses migrations between economic sectors. Besides helping to provide a fuller picture of the evolution of the population, Markov chains also enable forecasts of its future composition to be made, as well as the computation of average lifetimes of companies by branch of activity. The method is applied to Belgian data from the Crossroads Bank for Enterprises (CBE). To ensure compliance with Eurostat-OECD definitions, only 'active' enterprises, i.e. enterprises with a positive turnover and/or at least one employee, are considered. The forecasting method is applied to simulate the demographic evolution of the CBE population between 2000 and 2006. This simulation seems to match well the observed changes. Taking migrations into account yields better forecasts than if they are not considered. Moreover, several off-diagonal percentages in the transition matrix are sigificantly different from zero. A case study shows that these migrations are changes in main activity and not the consequence of corrections of wrongly classified firms. Next, the average remaining lifetime and the average age of enterprises in a particular branch of activity is computed and analysed. These lifetimes and ages differ considerably across branches. As expected the life-times of public services are longer than average. Shorter lifetimes combined with an increasing number of enterprises is an indication of renewal inside the branch. A low average age is a sign of relatively new branches. Comparing age to total expected lifetime yields an indicator of closeness to extinction. This might be an indicator of the maturity of the branch. The method is more generally applicable in the sense that it can be used to analyse other populations than those from the CBE and other partitions of the population

One of the most important predictions made in recent international trade literature based on heterogeneous firms concerns the within-industry job reallocation from firms not involved in international markets to those that are. This paper quantifies the extent of this reallocation using a dataset of Belgian manufacturing firms from 1998 to 2004 providing information on their international trading activities. The results suggest that, at three-digit industry levels, the shifts in employment between firms having different trading status account for 6 to 30 percent of total job reallocation. This effect is stronger for large than for small firms.

This paper uses the Free Disposal Hull framework in order to assess the relative efficiency of Belgian general government in the field of health care, education and public order and safety. In order to do so, this paper aggregates a large number of outcome indicators. Several drawbacks indicate that results must be interpreted cautiously. These drawbacks aside, the analysis reveals that Belgium is relatively efficient in the field of health care. As a whole, the Belgian education system is more expensive but also produces better results than the European average. However, an analysis based on a limited set of indicators reveals that the French-speaking education sector is very inefficient while the Flemish Community’s efficiency is markedly better. As far as public order and safety are concerned, major improvements could and should be made, either to improve service or cut costs

By building a theoretical model and taking it to the data with two novel datasets, this paper analyses the interaction between credit constraints and exporting behaviour. Building a heterogeneous firms model of international trade with liquidity-constrained firms yields several predictions on the equilibrium relationships between productivity, credit constraints and exports that are then verified in the data. The main findings of the paper are that firms are more likely to be exporting if they enjoy higher productivity levels and lower credit constraints. Also, credit constraints are important in determining the extensive but not the intensive margin of trade in terms of destinations. This introduces a pecking order of trade. Finally, an exchange rate appreciation will cause existing exporters to reduce their exports, entry of credit-constrained potential exporters and exit of the least productive exporters

This paper evaluates the causal effects of exports to different destination countries using a comprehensive dataset on Belgian manufacturing firms from 1998 to 2005. Initial evidence suggests that, before export market entry, exporters to more developed economies have superior productivity levels than non-exporters and firms exporting to less developed countries. Moreover, they seem to experience higher productivity growth rates in the post-entry period, suggesting learning-by-exporting effects. However, applying matching methodology to formally evaluate the causal effects of export market entry on productivity reveals no such impact. Thus, the productivity advantage of firms exporting to developed countries appears to be driven solely by self-selection.

This paper uses a frequency domain approach to gain insight into the correlation between survey indicators and year-on-year GDP growth. Using the Baxter-King filter, we split up each series into three components: a short-term, a business cycle (oscillations between 18 and 96 months) and a long-term component. We then calculate how much of the variation of the survey series and GDP growth can be ascribed to these different components. Finally, we use this information together with an analysis of the correlation between survey indicators and year-on-year GDP growth at the different frequencies to explain their overall correlation. We show that survey indicators, similar to year-on-year GDP growth, do not perfectly reflect business cycle movements but contain cycles of other frequencies. Long-term cycles, in particular, are a nontrivial part of the series' variance. Furthermore, there exist some clear relations between the weight of these cycles in the survey indicators and their correlation with GDP growth. In general, the larger the business cycle component, the larger the correlation, while the opposite is true for the short-term component. The evidence for the long-term component is mixed: although a long-term component seems necessary as the correlation at this frequency is the highest, strong or weak long-term components are typically idiosyncratic, dragging down the overall correlation between the indicator and year-on-year GDP growth. The paper applies this methodology to the euro area countries (EC survey indicators) and to Belgium separately (NBB business survey indicators). The results are highly comparable

This paper decomposes wage bill changes at the firm level into components due to wage changes, and components due to net flows of employment. The analysis relies on an administrative employer-employee dataset of individual annual earnings matched with firms' annual accounts for Belgium over the period 1997-2001. Results point to asymmetric behaviour depending on economic conditions. On average, wage bill contractions result essentially from employment cuts in spite of wage increases. Wage growth of job stayers is moderated but still positive; and wages of entrants compared with those of incumbents are no lower. The labour force cuts are achieved through both reduced entries and increased exits. Higher exits may be due to more layoffs, especially in smaller firms, and wider use of early retirement, especially in manufacturing. In addition, the paper points up the role of overtime hours, temporary unemployment and interim workers in adapting to short-run fluctuations.

This paper is a publication issued by the Microeconomic Analysis service of the National Bank of Belgium. This is the outcome of a first research project on the Belgian transport logistics sectors. In the past few years, the logistics business has turned out to play a significant part in wealth creation in our country, whose economy is driven by services. This study can be seen as an extension of Working Paper No. 115 on Belgian ports, issued in May 2007, as the activities under review are closely tied to transport in general and maritime transport in particular. Considering that this is a first attempt to estimate the economic importance of Belgian transport logistics, it was decided to favour a sectoral approach, by focusing on some freight transport logistics sectors clearly defined in the NACE classification. The impact is presented in two parts: the direct effects and the indirect effects. Furthermore, a short analysis is provided about the economic impact of other activities, such as in-house logistics and European distribution centres. An overview of some developments per sub-sector is provided for the period 2000 - 2005, with the emphasis on 2005. The core of the analysis, which is statistical and therefore not based on a survey, looks more specifically into developments in terms of value added, employment, investment and the financial situation of the companies concerned. A first estimate of developments over the 2005 - 2006 period is also provided for value added and employment. Annual accounts data from the Central Balance Sheet Office are used for the calculation of direct effects, the study of financial ratios and analysis of the social balance sheet. Also worth mentioning is that the indirect effects of the activities concerned have been estimated in terms of value added and employment, on the basis of data from the NAI (National Accounts Institute). A comprehensive analysis of the linkages between the sectors under review and the other Belgian sectors is presented. The activities under review accounted for no less than 3.1 p.c. of Belgian GDP and 3.4 p.c. of the country's domestic employment in 2005. Including indirect effects, these percentages respectively amounted to 5 and 5.3 p.c. in the same year. Taking some survey data into account, the overall impact would reach roughly 8 p.c. of the Belgian economy, if transport logistics business provided by external branches on the one hand and in-house transport logistics on the other were added to these above-mentioned sectoral percentages. This report provides a comprehensive account of these issues, giving information per economic sector.

It is often argued that the baseline New-Keynesian model, which relies solely on the notion of infrequent price adjustment, cannot account for the observed degree of inflation sluggishness. Therefore it is a common practice among macro modellers to introduce an ad hoc additional source of persistence to their models. Yet, the empirical validity of this practice has never been formally tested. This paper attempts to examine whether there is some additional persistence present in the data on micro-prices, beyond that implied by infrequent price adjustment. We consider two distinct sets of assumptions consistent with the existence of an intrinsic or extrinsic source of sluggishness and build and estimate two alternative models based on these assumptions. It is shown that in he case of certain product categories, particularly food, there is evidence of less sluggishness than what the standard assumptions underlying the New-Keynesian model would imply. We find certain support for the existence of an additional source of sluggishness for some industrial goods and services. Importantly however, the results are sensitive to the choice of the model. We conclude that some inconsistencies with the baseline New-Keynesian assumptions may be tracked in the price behavior. Yet, it is too early to assess their strength or the effect on macro aggregates. Therefore, at the current stage it would be premature to discard the baseline version of the New-Keynesian model based on evidence from micro-data. Similarly, the micro support for introducing an extra source of inflation sluggishness to macro-models is still relatively weak

The aim of this study is to give an overview of recent developments in Belgium’s direct investment relations with the rest of the world. The analysis is based mainly on two sets of statistics drawn up by the National Bank of Belgium, namely, data on direct investment flows from the balance of payments on the one hand, and the results of an annual survey on direct investment carried out among Belgian companies, on the other. Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows between Belgium and the rest of the world have, broadly speaking, followed relatively similar trends to FDI flows observed worldwide, but at the same time have shown some specific characteristics, such as the influence of a few sporadic operations involving large amounts and significant differences within the various components making up FDI inflows and outflows, the former consisting essentially of capital injections in companies and the latter mainly taking the form of intercompany loans. This particular structural pattern stems from the presence of the coordination centres in Belgium and the special tax status that these companies enjoy. Apart from those investment flows attributable to the coordination centres, a large part of the FDI inflows recorded in the balance of payments concern investment by multinationals in third countries, for which resident companies act as intermediaries. Still disregarding funds invested in the coordination centres, the total figures compiled on the basis of the annual survey show that foreign shareholdings in Belgian firms, as measured on the basis of their book value, have stabilized since 2002. Moreover, statistics for subsidiaries of foreign companies established in Belgium show that there is still a fairly high proportion of them active in relatively labour-intensive industrial sectors. As for Belgium’s FDI, the results of the direct investment survey point to a gradual expansion in Belgian companies’ activities abroad, which are developing at a faster pace than their domestic business. Both data on outstanding equity and those for subsidiaries abroad indicate that foreign direct investment by resident firms is largely concentrated in other developed countries with similar economic features to Belgium’s. This would tend to suggest that the extent of straight business relocations to low-wage countries by Belgian firms via investments abroad remains relatively limited.

This paper explores a newly-available panel data set merging balance sheet and international trade transaction data for Belgium. Both imports and exports appear to be highly concentrated among few firms and seem to have become more so over time. Focusing on manufacturing, we find that facts previously reported in the literature for exports only actually apply to imports too. We note that the number of trading firms diminishes as the number of export destinations or import origins increases. The same is true if we consider the number of products traded. With regard to productivity differentials, firms that both import and export appear to be the most productive, followed, in descending order, by importers only, exporters only and non-traders. These results point to the presence of fixed costs not only of exporting, but also of importing and to a process of self-selection in both export and import markets. Also, the productivity advantage of exporters reported in the literature may be overstated because imports were not considered.

Temporal distribution of individual price changes is of crucial importance for business cycle theory and for the micro-foundations of price adjustment. While it is routinely assumed that price changes are staggered over time, both theory and evidence are ambiguous. We use a large Belgian data set to analyze whether price changes are staggered or synchronized. We find that the more aggregate the data, the closer the distribution to perfect staggering. This result holds for both aggregation across goods and across locations. Our results provide support for Bhaskar’s (2002) model of synchronized adjustment within, and staggered adjustment across, industries.

The economic impact of the port sector is usually measured at an aggregate level by indicators such as value added, employment and investment. This paper tries to define the economic relevance for the regional as well as for the national economy at a disaggregate level. It attempts to identify, quantify and locate the mutual relationships between the various port players themselves and between them and other Belgian industries. Due to a lack of information foreign trade is only tackled very briefly but the method outlined in this paper can be used to measure the national effects of changes in port activity at a detailed level. A sector analysis is made by compiling a regional (regional as geographically opposed to national, not to be mistaken for the Belgian Regions Brussels, Flanders and Wallonia) input-output table, resorting to microeconomic data: a bottom-up approach. The main customers and suppliers of the port's key players or stakeholders are identified. A geographical analysis can also be carried out by using data at a disaggregate level. Each customer or supplier can be located by means of their postcode. In so doing, the economic impact of the port is quantified, both functionally and geographically. In the case of the port of Antwerp, the results show important links between freight forwarders and agents. The geographical analysis suggests the existence of major agglomerating effects in and around the port of Antwerp, referred to as a major transhipment location point. Key words: port economics, regional input-output table, sector analysis, geographical analysis.

Keynesian economics dominated economic thought and macroeconomic policy-making in the 1950s and 1960s. However, the diffusion of Keynesian economics has been uneven. In this paper, we compare the spread of Keynesian economics in two continental European countries: Belgium and Italy. We focus on the post-World War II period, taking as the main message of Keynesian economics that the market is inherently unstable and that the government has a key role in economic life in steering effective demand. We further follow Coddington's distinction between "hydraulic", "disequilibrium" and "fundamentalist" Keynesianism. The study shows that Belgium and Italy were two countries were Keynesian economics gained ground only relatively late. The breakthrough of (hydraulic) Keynesianism came in areas which were close to the policy-making process: setting up national income accounts, the construction of macroeconomic models and correcting regional imbalances. The main difference between the two countries was the strong position of fundamentalist Keynesianism in the academic world in Italy, while in Belgium, disequilibrium Keynesianism was more influential.