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There are growing concerns about the impact of pollution on maternal and infant health. In the UK in 2018, 36% of local authorities had levels of PM2.5 where exposure exceeded the annual level recommended by the World Health Organisation at the time. Using a population database of births in Northern Ireland linked to localised geographic information on pollution in mothers’ postcodes (zip codes) of residence during pregnancy, we examine whether prenatal exposure to PM2.5 is associated with a comprehensive range of birth outcomes. Overall, we find little evidence that particulate matter is related to worse infant outcomes once we implement a fixed effects approach that accounts for time-invariant factors common to mothers. While reducing pollution remains an urgent public health priority, our results imply that improvements in short-run levels of prenatal PM2.5 exposure are unlikely to be sufficient by themselves to reduce disparities in birth outcomes.

A range of evidence suggests that non-standard jobs, including fixed-term and other temporary jobs such as casual jobs, pay lower wages than more standard, permanent jobs, even after controlling for differences in worker and job characteristics. A recent literature suggests this is also the case for zero hours contracts (ZHCs), a growing form of non-standard employment in several developed countries, including the UK. These studies typically rely on derived wage variables – derived from survey responses to questions on earnings and hours data – which are prone to various forms of measurement error, some of which may be correlated with employment contract. Many relevant surveys, however, also include stated-rate hourly wage questions which, although also likely measured with error, are not subject to the same measurement issues. This suggests potential for sensitivity in non-standard employment wage penalty estimates depending on the wage measure used. Using the example of ZHCs in the UK, we first use derived wages to replicate the ballpark conditional ZHC wage penalty typical of existing studies. We then show that there is no conditional ZHC wage penalty, on average, when using the stated-rate hourly wage measure. This also holds for other non-standard employment types, including casual and fixed-term employment. Further, whereas the derived wage measure suggests, in line with existing literature, that the ZHC wage penalty is largest at the bottom of the wage distribution, we show the opposite to be the case when using the stated-rate wage measure. We discuss implications for policy, our understanding of labour market behaviour, and also for the wider literature on non-standard work wage penalties.

The increasing numbers of workers in employment with little to no job security, so-called precarious employment, has led to a range of concerns over worker outcomes. A particular focus is the effect of instability on health in general, and particularly, mental health. We provide new evidence on this, focusing on an extreme form of precarious employment that has grown rapidly in the UK, zero-hours contracts (ZHCs). We demonstrate that workers employed on ZHCs are more likely to report a long-lasting health problem than workers employed on other types of contract. In particular, reported levels of mental ill health are higher (almost double) among ZHC workers than for other workers. These associations remain, and a positive association between ZHC employment and physical ill health emerges, after controlling for a rich set of observable characteristics. Estimated associations vary little between different demographic groups, although they are concentrated in parts of the economy where underlying job instability is likely to be higher. Finally, we exploit sectoral variation in the historical prevalence of ZHC-like employment, in an instrumental variables framework, to demonstrate large and potentially causal effects of ZHC employment on reporting a long-lasting health problem and on mental ill health, but no effect on physical health. It is unlikely that these effects are currently factored into short-term employment conditions or that they attract compensating wage differentials.

This paper studies the prevalence and nature of zero-hours contracts (ZHCs) in the UK labour market. The headline count of ZHC workers based on the Labour Force Survey has long underestimated and continues to underestimate the number of workers in ZHC or ZHC-like jobs. ZHC jobs and workers are heterogeneous, but ZHC jobs have become increasingly concentrated among young workers, full-time students, migrants, black and minority ethnic workers, in personal service and elementary occupations, and in the distribution, accommodation and restaurant sector over time. Compared to other forms of employment, median wages in ZHC jobs have also fallen over time. The most common prior labour market state for ZHC workers is non-ZHC employment, particularly part-time employment, and we cannot reject that part of the reported growth in ZHCs has been driven by reclassification of existing employment relationships. Similarly, we cannot reject that growth in public awareness of ZHCs contributed substantially to recent growth in reported ZHCs, particularly over the period 2013/14.

This paper examines employment and hours impacts of the 1999 introduction of the UK National Minimum Wage (NMW) and the 2016 introduction of the UK National Living Wage (NLW) in Northern Ireland (NI). NI is the only part of the UK with a land border where the NMW and NLW cover those working on one side of the border (NI) but not those working on the other side of the border (Republic of Ireland). This discontinuity in minimum wage coverage enables a research design that estimates the impacts of the NMW and NLW on employment and hours worked using difference-in-differences. We find a small decrease in the employment rate of 22-59/64 year olds in NI, of up to two percentage points, in the year following the introduction of the NMW, but no impact on hours worked. We find no evidence that the introduction of the NLW impacted either employment or hours worked in NI.

Ethnic and religious differentials in labour market outcomes within many countries have been remarkably persistent. Yet one very well-known differential – the Catholic/Protestant unemployment differential in Northern Ireland – has largely (although not completely) disappeared. This paper charts its decline since the mid-1980s and examines potential explanations using Census data from 1991, 2001 and 2011 together with annual survey data. These data span the ending of The Troubles, the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, the introduction of fair employment legislation, growth in hidden unemployment, and major structural changes in Northern Ireland. We assess the relative contributions of these changes.

The debate over whether contingent (and typically more precarious) employment acts as a bridge to permanent employment, or as a trap, has tended to focus on transitions rather than longer-run pathways. This approach cannot accurately identify indirect pathways from contingent to permanent employment, and nor can it identify 'trap' pathways involving short spells in other states. It also fails to distinguish between those experiencing contingent employment as a 'blip' and those with longer spells. This article employs a different approach involving sequence analysis. Exploiting longitudinal data for Australian, evidence for the co-existence of pathways that correspond to 'bridge' and 'trap' characterisations of contingent employment is found. Further, in the case of casual employment these two types of labour market pathways are roughly equally prevalent, although for some groups in particular women, those with low educational attainment, and those with a disability 'traps' are more likely than 'bridges'.

This paper exploits rarely-used longitudinal data to examine the impacts of disability onset on benefit receipt in Britain over the period 2004–2012. Differences in the timing of onset are exploited for identification in a framework that combines propensity score matching with difference-in-differences estimation. Disability onset increases receipt of disability insurance, a wider measure of sickness and disability benefits, and receipt of non-sickness benefits by six, eight and six percentage points respectively in the first year. These effects do not vary significantly by individual characteristics, but are larger for more severe disability onset, for those who did not previously report a long-term health condition, and for those who experienced disability onset under the less restrictive pre-2009 disability benefit regime. Contrary to the perception of disability benefits being an absorbing state, disability exit has an almost symmetrical impact on receipt of disability insurance and on wider sickness benefits in the first year.