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Aim: The emergency department (ED) is the first port-of-call for most patients receiving hospital care and as such acts as a gatekeeper to the wards, directing patient flow through the hospital. ED overcrowding is a well-researched field and negatively affects patient outcome, staff well-being and hospital reputation. An accurate, real-time model capable of predicting ED overcrowding has obvious merit in a world becoming increasingly computational, although the complicated dynamics of the department have hindered international efforts to design such a model. Triage nurses' assessments have been shown to be accurate predictors of patient disposition and could, therefore, be useful input for overcrowding and patient flow models., Methods: In this study, we assess the prediction capabilities of triage nurses in a level 1 urban hospital in central Israeli. ED settings included both acute and ambulatory wings. Nurses were asked to predict admission or discharge for each patient over a 3-month period as well as exact admission destination. Prediction confidence was used as an optimisation variable., Result: Triage nurses accurately predicted whether the patient would be admitted or discharged in 77% of patients in the acute wing, rising to 88% when their prediction certainty was high. Accuracies were higher still for patients in the ambulatory wing. In particular, negative predictive values for admission were highly accurate at 90%, irrespective of area or certainty levels., Conclusion: Nurses prediction of disposition should be considered for input for real-time ED models., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)