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Objectives: To identify baseline patient characteristics that are (1) associated with a poor outcome on follow-up regardless of which treatment was provided (prognosis) or (2) associated with a successful outcome to a specific treatment (treatment effect modifiers)., Design: Systematic literature review according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines., Data Sources: Medline, Embase, Cinahl, Web of Science, Cochrane, SportDiscus, OT Seeker and PsychInfo were searched for prospective cohort studies up to February 2019 without limitation in publication date., Eligibility Criteria: Prospective cohort studies reporting either prognostic factors or treatment effect modifiers on persistent musculoskeletal pain in 0-year-old to 19-year-old children and adolescents. Pain caused by tumours, fractures, infections, systemic and neurological conditions were excluded., Outcome Measures: Our primary outcome was musculoskeletal pain at follow-up and identification of any baseline characteristics that were associated with this outcome (prognostic factors). No secondary outcomes were declared., Method: Two reviewers independently screened abstracts and titles. We included prospective cohort studies investigating the prognosis or treatment effect modifiers of 0-year-old to 19-year-old children and adolescents with self-reported musculoskeletal pain. Risk of bias assessment was conducted with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool., Results: Twenty-six studies yielding a total of 111 unique prognostic factors were included. Female sex and psychological symptoms were the most frequent investigated prognostic factors. Increasing age, generalised pain, longer pain duration and smoking were other identified prognostic factors. No treatment effect modifiers were identified., Conclusion: Several prognostic factors are associated with a poor prognosis in children and adolescents with musculoskeletal pain. These prognostic factors may help guide clinical practice and shared decision-making. None of the included studies was conducted within a general practice setting which highlights an area in need of research., Prospero Registration Number: CRD42016041378., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: Investigate the prognosis of adolescent knee pain, and evaluate its impact on health, care-seeking and career choices 5 years later., Design: Pre-registered, prospective cohort study., Setting: Population-based cohort initiated in school setting., Participants: From a cohort of 2200 adolescents aged 15-19 years in 2011, 504 reported knee pain on at least a monthly basis, and were followed prospectively in this cohort study, together with 252 controls who did not have knee pain in 2011., Main Outcome Measures: Outcomes included the Pain and Symptoms subscales from the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS), pain intensity measured with a Numeric Rating Scale, pain frequency, knee-related and health-related quality of life, sports participation, physical activity level, KOOS subscales: Function and Sport/recreation, quality of sleep, healthcare consultations, treatments received for their knee pain, the use of painkillers and impact on choice of job or career., Results: At follow-up, 358 (71.0%) from the knee pain group and 182 (72.2%) from the control group responded. Of note, 40.5% (95% CI: 35.4% to 45.6%) from the knee pain group reported knee pain 5 years later which was frequent and intense compared with 13.2% (95% CI: 8.2 to 18.1) of the control group. Those from the knee pain group still suffering from knee pain reported poorer physical health (13 points worse on KOOS Function and 30 points worse on KOOS Sport/recreation), stopped or reduced their sports participation because of knee pain (60%), reported worse sleep quality and worse knee-related and general quality of life. In terms of health behaviours, those still with knee pain reported more healthcare consultations. One-third used pain killers regularly, and 15% (95% CI: 12% to 20%) reported that knee pain influenced their choice of job or career., Conclusion: Four out of every 10 adolescents with knee pain still experienced frequent and intense knee pain 5 years later, severe enough to impact health, health behaviours and career choices., Trail Registration Number: NCT02873143., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)