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Background: As the populations of lower-income and middle-income countries age, multimorbidity is increasing, but there is little information on its long-term consequences. We aimed to show associations between multimorbidity and outcomes of mortality and hospitalisation in Iran, a middle-income country undergoing rapid economic transition., Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of longitudinal data collected in the Golestan Cohort Study. Data on demographics, morbidities and lifestyle factors were collected at baseline, and information on hospitalisations or deaths was captured annually. Logistic regression was used to analyse the association between baseline multimorbidity and 10-year mortality, Cox-proportional hazard models to measure lifetime risk of mortality and zero-inflation models to investigate the association between hospitalisation and multimorbidity. Multimorbidity was classified as ≥2 conditions or number of conditions. Demographic, lifestyle and socioeconomic variables were included as covariables., Results: The study recruited 50 045 participants aged 40-75 years between 2004 and 2008, 47 883 were available for analysis, 416 (57.3%) were female and 12 736 (27.94%) were multimorbid. The odds of dying at 10 years for multimorbidity defined as ≥2 conditions was 1.99 (95% CI 1.86 to 2.12, p<0.001), and it increased with increasing number of conditions (OR of 3.57; 95% CI 3.12 to 4.08, p<0.001 for ≥4 conditions). The survival analysis showed the hazard of death for those with ≥4 conditions was 3.06 (95% CI 2.74 to 3.43, p<0.001). The number of hospital admissions increased with number of conditions (OR of not being hospitalised of 0.36; 95% CI 0.31 to 0.52, p<0.001, for ≥4 conditions)., Conclusion: The long-terms effects of multimorbidity on mortality and hospitalisation are similar in this population to those seen in high-income countries., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Injuries in low-income and middle-income countries are prevalent and their number is expected to increase. Death and disability after injury can be reduced if people reach healthcare facilities in a timely manner. Knowledge of barriers to access to quality injury care is necessary to intervene to improve outcomes. We combined a four-delay framework with WHO Building Blocks and Institution of Medicine Quality Outcomes Frameworks to describe barriers to trauma care in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Ghana, South Africa and Rwanda. We used a parallel convergent mixed-methods research design, integrating the results to enable a holistic analysis of the barriers to access to quality injury care. Data were collected using surveys of patient experiences of injury care, interviews and focus group discussions with patients and community leaders, and a survey of policy-makers and healthcare leaders on the governance context for injury care. We identified 121 barriers across all three countries. Of these, 31 (25.6%) were shared across countries. More than half (18/31, 58%) were predominantly related to delay 3 ('Delays to receiving quality care'). The majority of the barriers were captured using just one of the multiple methods, emphasising the need to use multiple methods to identify all barriers. Given there are many barriers to access to quality care for people who have been injured in Rwanda, Ghana and South Africa, but few of these are shared across countries, solutions to overcome these barriers may also be contextually dependent. This suggests the need for rigorous assessments of contexts using multiple data collection methods before developing interventions to improve access to quality care., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected health systems in many countries, but little is known about effects on health systems in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the effects of COVID-19 on hospital utilisation in a sub-Saharan country, Sierra Leone., Methods: Mixed-methods study using longitudinal nationwide hospital data (admissions, operations, deliveries and referrals) and qualitative interviews with healthcare workers and patients. Hospital data were compared across quarters (Q) in 2020, with day 1 of Q2 representing the start of the pandemic in Sierra Leone. Admissions are reported in total and disaggregated by sex, service (surgical, medical, maternity and paediatric) and hospital type (government or private non-profit). Referrals in 2020 were compared with 2019 to assess whether any changes were the result of seasonality. Comparisons were performed using Student's t-test. Qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis., Results: From Q1 to Q2, weekly mean hospital admissions decreased by 14.7% (p=0.005). Larger decreases were seen in male 18.8% than female 12.5% admissions. The largest decreases were in surgical admissions, a 49.8% decrease (p<0.001) and medical admissions, a 28.7% decrease (p=0.002). Paediatric and maternity admissions did not significantly change. Total operations decreased by 13.9% (p<0.001), while caesarean sections and facility-based deliveries showed significant increases: 12.7% (p=0.014) and 7.5% (p=0.03), respectively. In Q3, total admissions remained 13.2% lower (p<0.001) than Q1. Mean weekly referrals were lower in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 compared with 2019, suggesting findings were unlikely to be seasonal. Qualitative analysis identified both supply-side factors, prioritisation of essential services, introduction of COVID-19 services and pausing elective care, and demand-side factors, fear of nosocomial infection and financial hardship., Conclusion: The study demonstrated a decrease in hospital utilisation during COVID-19, the decrease is less than reported in other countries during COVID-19 and less than reported during the Ebola epidemic., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: Cardiovascular diseases are the second leading cause of mortality behind HIV/AIDS in South Africa. This study investigates cardiovascular disease mortality trends in rural South Africa over 20+ years and the associated barriers to accessing care, using verbal autopsy data., Design: A mixed-methods approach was used, combining descriptive analysis of mortality rates over time, by condition, sex and age group, quantitative analysis of circumstances of mortality (CoM) indicators and free text narratives of the final illness, and qualitative analysis of free texts., Setting: This study was done using verbal autopsy data from the Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System site in Agincourt, rural South Africa., Participants: Deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases (acute cardiac disease, stroke, renal failure and other unspecified cardiac disease) from 1993 to 2015 were extracted from verbal autopsy data., Results: Between 1993 and 2015, of 15 305 registered deaths over 1 851 449 person-years of follow-up, 1434 (9.4%) were attributable to cardiovascular disease, corresponding to a crude mortality rate of 0.77 per 1000 person-years. Cardiovascular disease mortality rate increased from 0.34 to 1.12 between 1993 and 2015. Stroke was the dominant cause of death, responsible for 41.0% (588/1434) of all cardiovascular deaths across all years. Cardiovascular disease mortality rate was significantly higher in women and increased with age. The main delays in access to care during the final illness were in seeking and receiving care. Qualitative free-text analysis highlighted delays not captured in the CoM, principally communication between the clinician and patient or family. Half of cases initially sought care outside a hospital setting (50.9%, 199/391)., Conclusions: The temporal increase in deaths due to cardiovascular disease highlights the need for greater prevention and management strategies for these conditions, particularly for the women. Strategies to improve seeking and receiving care during the final illness are needed., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Surgical healthcare has been prioritised in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional intergovernmental entity promoting equitable and sustainable economic growth and socioeconomic development. However, challenges remain in translating political prioritisation into effective and equitable surgical healthcare. The AfroSurg Collaborative (AfroSurg) includes clinicians, public health professionals and social scientists from six SADC countries; it was created to identify context-specific, critical areas where research is needed to inform evidence-grounded policy and implementation. In January 2020, 38 AfroSurg members participated in a theory of change (ToC) workshop to agree on a vision: 'An African-led, regional network to enable evidence-based, context-specific, safe surgical care, which is accessible, timely, and affordable for all, capturing the spirit of Ubuntu [1] ' and to identify necessary policy and service-delivery knowledge needs to achieve this vision. A unified ToC map was created, and a Delphi survey was conducted to rank the top five priority knowledge needs. In total, 45 knowledge needs were identified; the top five priority areas included (1) mapping of available surgical services, resources and providers; (2) quantifying the burden of surgical disease; (3) identifying the appropriate number of trainees; (4) identifying the type of information that should be collected to inform service planning; and (5) identifying effective strategies that encourage geographical retention of practitioners. Of the top five knowledge needs, four were policy-related, suggesting a dearth of much-needed information to develop regional, evidenced-based surgical policies. The findings from this workshop provide a roadmap to drive locally led research and create a collaborative network for implementing research and interventions. This process could inform discussions in other low-resource settings and enable more evidenced-based surgical policy and service delivery across the SADC countries and beyond., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The large burden of injuries falls disproportionately on low/middle-income countries (LMICs). Health system interventions improve outcomes in high-income countries. Assessing LMIC trauma systems supports their improvement. Evaluating systems using a Three Delays framework, considering barriers to seeking (Delay 1), reaching (Delay 2) and receiving care (Delay 3), has aided maternal health gains. Rapid assessments allow timely appraisal within resource and logistically constrained settings. We systematically reviewed existing literature on the assessment of LMIC trauma systems, applying the Three Delays framework and rapid assessment principles., Methods: We conducted a systematic review and narrative synthesis of articles assessing LMIC trauma systems. We searched seven databases and grey literature for studies and reports published until October 2018. Inclusion criteria were an injury care focus and assessment of at least one defined system aspect. We mapped each study to the Three Delays framework and judged its suitability for rapid assessment., Results: Of 14 677 articles identified, 111 studies and 8 documents were included. Sub-Saharan Africa was the most commonly included region (44.1%). Delay 3, either alone or in combination, was most commonly assessed (79.3%) followed by Delay 2 (46.8%) and Delay 1 (10.8%). Facility assessment was the most common method of assessment (36.0%). Only 2.7% of studies assessed all Three Delays. We judged 62.6% of study methodologies potentially suitable for rapid assessment., Conclusions: Whole health system injury research is needed as facility capacity assessments dominate. Future studies should consider novel or combined methods to study Delays 1 and 2, alongside care processes and outcomes., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. The impact of these risk factors on future CVD outcomes and burden is poorly understood. We examined the magnitude of modifiable risk factors, estimated future CVD risk and compared results between three commonly used 10-year CVD risk factor algorithms and their variants in four African countries., Methods: In the Africa-Wits-INDEPTH partnership for Genomic studies (the AWI-Gen Study), 10 349 randomly sampled individuals aged 40-60 years from six sites participated in a survey, with blood pressure, blood glucose and lipid levels measured. Using these data, 10-year CVD risk estimates using Framingham, Globorisk and WHO-CVD and their office-based variants were generated. Differences in future CVD risk and results by algorithm are described using kappa and coefficients to examine agreement and correlations, respectively., Results: The 10-year CVD risk across all participants in all sites varied from 2.6% (95% CI: 1.6% to 4.1%) using the WHO-CVD lab algorithm to 6.5% (95% CI: 3.7% to 11.4%) using the Framingham office algorithm, with substantial differences in risk between sites. The highest risk was in South African settings (in urban Soweto: 8.9% (IQR: 5.3-15.3)). Agreement between algorithms was low to moderate (kappa from 0.03 to 0.55) and correlations ranged between 0.28 and 0.70. Depending on the algorithm used, those at high risk (defined as risk of 10-year CVD event >20%) who were under treatment for a modifiable risk factor ranged from 19.2% to 33.9%, with substantial variation by both sex and site., Conclusion: The African sites in this study are at different stages of an ongoing epidemiological transition as evidenced by both risk factor levels and estimated 10-year CVD risk. There is low correlation and disparate levels of population risk, predicted by different risk algorithms, within sites. Validating existing risk algorithms or designing context-specific 10-year CVD risk algorithms is essential for accurately defining population risk and targeting national policies and individual CVD treatment on the African continent., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Time-critical conditions (TCC) are estimated to cause substantial mortality in low and middle-income countries. However, quantification of deaths and identification of contributing factors to those deaths are challenging in settings with poor health records., Aim: To use verbal autopsy (VA) data from the Agincourt health and sociodemographic surveillance system in rural South Africa to quantify the burden of deaths from TCC and to evaluate the barriers in seeking, reaching and receiving quality care for TCC leading to death., Methodology: Deaths from 1993 to 2015 were analysed to identify causality from TCC. Deaths due to TCC were categorised as communicable, non-communicable, maternal, neonatal or injury-related. Proportion of deaths from TCC by age, sex, condition type and temporal trends was described. Deaths due to TCC from 2012 to 2015 were further examined by circumstances of mortality (CoM) indicators embedded in VA. Healthcare access, at illness onset and during the final day of life, as well as place of death, was extracted from free text summaries. Summaries were also analysed qualitatively using a Three Delays framework to identify barriers to healthcare., Results: Of 15 305 deaths, 5885 (38.45%) were due to TCC. Non-communicable diseases were the most prevalent cause of death from TCC (2961/5885 cases, 50.31%). CoM indicators highlighted delays in a quarter of deaths due to TCC, most frequently in seeking care. The most common pattern of healthcare access was to die outwith a facility, having sought no healthcare (409/1324 cases, 30.89%). Issues in receipt of quality care were identified by qualitative analysis., Conclusion: TCCs are responsible for a substantial burden of deaths in this rural South African population. Delays in seeking and receiving quality care were more prominent than those in reaching care, and thus further research and solution development should focus on healthcare-seeking behaviour and quality care provision., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Multimorbidity is a health issue of increasing importance worldwide, and is likely to become particularly problematic in low-income countries (LICs) as they undergo economic, demographic and epidemiological transitions. Knowledge of the burden and consequences of multimorbidity in LICs is needed to inform appropriate interventions., Methods: A cross-sectional household survey collected data on morbidities and frailty, disability, quality of life and physical performance on individuals aged over 40 years of age living in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System area in northwestern Burkina Faso. We defined multimorbidity as the occurrence of two or more conditions, and evaluated the prevalence of and whether this was concordant (conditions in the same morbidity domain of communicable, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) or mental health (MH)) or discordant (conditions in different morbidity domains) multimorbidity. Finally, we fitted multivariable regression models to determine associated factors and consequences of multimorbidity., Results: Multimorbidity was present in 22.8 (95% CI, 21.4 to 24.2) of the study population; it was more common in females, those who are older, single, more educated, and wealthier. We found a similar prevalence of discordant 11.1 (95% CI, 10.1 to 12.2) and concordant multimorbidity 11.7 (95% CI, 10.6 to 12.8). After controlling for age, sex, marital status, education, and wealth, an increasing number of conditions was strongly associated with frailty, disability, low quality of life, and poor physical performance. We found no difference in the association between concordant and discordant multimorbidity and outcomes, however people who were multimorbid with NCDs alone had better outcomes than those with multimorbidity with NCDs and MH disorders or MH multimorbidity alone., Conclusions: Multimorbidity is prevalent in this poor, rural population and is associated with markers of decreased physical performance and quality of life. Preventative and management interventions are needed to ensure that health systems can deal with increasing multimorbidity and its downstream consequences., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a useful tool to ascertain cause of death where no other mechanisms exist. We aimed to assess the utility of VA data to ascertain deaths due to uncontrolled hyperglycaemia and to develop a weighted score (WS) to specifically identify cases. Cases were identified by a study or site physician with training in diabetes. These diagnoses were also compared with diagnoses produced by a standard computer algorithm (InterVA-4)., Setting: This study was done using VA data from the Health and Demographic Survey sites in Agincourt in rural South Africa. Validation of the WS was done using VA data from Karonga in Malawi., Participants: All deaths from ages 1 to 49 years between 1992 and 2015 and between 2002 and 2016 from Agincourt and Karonga, respectively. There were 8699 relevant deaths in Agincourt and 1663 in Karonga., Results: Of the Agincourt deaths, there were 77 study physician classified cases and 58 computer algorithm classified cases. Agreement between study physician classified cases and computer algorithm classified cases was poor (Cohen's kappa 0.14). Our WS produced a receiver operator curve with area under the curve of 0.952 (95% CI 0.920 to 0.985). However, positive predictive value (PPV) was below 50% when the WS was applied to the development set and the score was dominated by the necessity for a premortem diagnosis of diabetes. Independent validation showed the WS performed reasonably against site physician classified cases with sensitivity of 86%, specificity of 99%, PPV of 60% and negative predictive value of 99%., Conclusion: Our results suggest that widely used VA methodologies may be missing deaths due to uncontrolled hyperglycaemia. Our WS may offer improved ability to detect deaths due to uncontrolled hyperglycaemia in large populations studies where no other means exist., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Competing Interests: Competing interests: None.

Introduction: The number of specialist anaesthetists in most low-income and middle-income countries is below what is needed to provide a safe quality anaesthesia service. There are no estimates of the optimal number; therefore, we estimated the minimum density of specialist anaesthetists to achieve a reasonable standard of healthcare as indicated by the maternal mortality ratio (MMR)., Methods: Utilising existing country-level data of the number of physician anaesthesia providers (PAPs), MMR and Human Development Index (HDI), we developed best-fit curves to describe the relationship between MMR and PAPs, controlling for HDI. The aim was to use this relationship to estimate the number of PAPs associated with achieving the median MMR., Results: We estimated that, in order to achieve a reasonable standard of healthcare, as indicated by the global median MMR, countries should aim to have at least four PAPs per 100 000 population. Existing data show that currently 80 countries have fewer than this number., Conclusion: Four PAPs per 100 000 population is a modest target, but there is a need to increase training of doctors in many countries in order to train more specialist anaesthetists. It is important that this target is considered during the development of national workforce plans, even if a stepwise approach to workforce planning is chosen., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

Background: Disability and quality of life are key outcomes for older people. Little is known about how these measures vary with age and gender across lower income and middle-income countries; such information is necessary to tailor health and social care policy to promote healthy ageing and minimise disability., Methods: We analysed data from participants aged 50 years and over from health and demographic surveillance system sites of the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Network in Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, South Africa, Vietnam, India, Indonesia and Bangladesh, using an abbreviated version of the WHO Study on global AGEing survey instrument. We used the eight-item WHO Quality of Life (WHOQoL) tool to measure quality of life and theWHO Disability Assessment Schedule, version 2 (WHODAS-II) tool to measure disability. We collected selected health status measures via the survey instrument and collected demographic and socioeconomic data from linked surveillance site information. We performed regression analyses to quantify differences between countries in the relationship between age, gender and both quality of life and disability, and we used anchoring vignettes to account for differences in interpretation of disability severity., Results: We included 43 935 individuals in the analysis. Mean age was 63.7 years (SD 9.7) and 24 434 (55.6%) were women. In unadjusted analyses across all countries, WHOQoL scores worsened by 0.13 points (95% CI 0.12 to 0.14) per year increase in age and WHODAS scores worsened by 0.60 points (95% CI 0.57 to 0.64). WHODAS-II and WHOQoL scores varied markedly between countries, as did the gradient of scores with increasing age. In regression analyses, differences were not fully explained by age, socioeconomic status, marital status, education or health factors. Differences in disability scores between countries were not explained by differences in anchoring vignette responses., Conclusions: The relationship between age, sex and both disability and quality of life varies between countries. The findings may guide tailoring of interventions to individual country needs, although these associations require further study., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.