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Objective Risk-guided atrial fibrillation (AF) screening may be an opportunity to prevent adverse events in addition to stroke. We compared events rates for new diagnoses of cardio-renal-metabolic diseases and death in individuals identified at higher versus lower-predicted AF risk.Methods From the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset, 2 January 1998–30 November 2018, we identified individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF. The risk of AF was estimated using the FIND-AF (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation) risk score. We calculated cumulative incidence rates and fit Fine and Gray’s models at 1, 5 and 10 years for nine diseases and death adjusting for competing risks.Results Of 416 228 individuals in the cohort, 82 942 were identified as higher risk for AF. Higher-predicted risk, compared with lower-predicted risk, was associated with incident chronic kidney disease (cumulative incidence per 1000 persons at 10 years 245.2; HR 6.85, 95% CI 6.70 to 7.00; median time to event 5.44 years), heart failure (124.7; 12.54, 12.08 to 13.01; 4.06), diabetes mellitus (123.3; 2.05, 2.00 to 2.10; 3.45), stroke/transient ischaemic attack (118.9; 8.07, 7.80 to 8.34; 4.27), myocardial infarction (69.6; 5.02, 4.82 to 5.22; 4.32), peripheral vascular disease (44.6; 6.62, 6.28 to 6.98; 4.28), valvular heart disease (37.8; 6.49, 6.14 to 6.85; 4.54), aortic stenosis (18.7; 9.98, 9.16 to 10.87; 4.41) and death from any cause (273.9; 10.45, 10.23 to 10.68; 4.75). The higher-risk group constituted 74% of deaths from cardiovascular or cerebrovascular causes (8582 of 11 676).Conclusions Individuals identified for risk-guided AF screening are at risk of new diseases across the cardio-renal-metabolic spectrum and death, and may benefit from interventions beyond ECG monitoring.

Introduction Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a fivefold increased risk of stroke. Oral anticoagulation reduces the risk of stroke, but AF is elusive. A machine learning algorithm (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation (FIND-AF)) developed to predict incident AF within 6 months using data in primary care electronic health records (EHRs) could be used to guide AF screening. The objectives of the FIND-AF pilot study are to determine yields of AF during ECG monitoring across AF risk estimates and establish rates of recruitment and protocol adherence in a remote AF screening pathway.Methods and analysis The FIND-AF Pilot is an interventional, non-randomised, single-arm, open-label study that will recruit 1955 participants aged 30 years or older, without a history of AF and eligible for oral anticoagulation, identified as higher risk and lower risk by the FIND-AF risk score from their primary care EHRs, to a period of remote ECG monitoring with a Zenicor-ECG device. The primary outcome is AF diagnosis during ECG monitoring, and secondary outcomes include recruitment rates, withdrawal rates, adherence to ECG monitoring and prescription of oral anticoagulation to participants diagnosed with AF during ECG monitoring.Ethics and dissemination The study has ethical approval (the North West—Greater Manchester South Research Ethics Committee reference 23/NW/0180). Findings will be announced at relevant conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals in line with the Funder’s open access policy.Trial registration number NCT05898165.

Objective: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common and is associated with an increased risk of stroke. We aimed to systematically review and meta-analyse multivariable prediction models derived and/or validated in electronic health records (EHRs) and/or administrative claims databases for the prediction of incident AF in the community.Methods: Ovid Medline and Ovid Embase were searched for records from inception to 23 March 2021. Measures of discrimination were extracted and pooled by Bayesian meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed through a 95% prediction interval (PI). Risk of bias was assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool and certainty in effect estimates by Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation.Results: Eleven studies met inclusion criteria, describing nine prediction models, with four eligible for meta-analysis including 9 289 959 patients. The CHADS (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age>75, Diabetes mellitus, prior Stroke or transient ischemic attack) (summary c-statistic 0.674; 95% CI 0.610 to 0.732; 95% PI 0.526-0.815), CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age>75 (2 points), Stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism (2 points), Vascular disease, Age 65-74, Sex category) (summary c-statistic 0.679; 95% CI 0.620 to 0.736; 95% PI 0.531-0.811) and HATCH (Hypertension, Age, stroke or Transient ischemic attack, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Heart failure) (summary c-statistic 0.669; 95% CI 0.600 to 0.732; 95% PI 0.513-0.803) models resulted in a c-statistic with a statistically significant 95% PI and moderate discriminative performance. No model met eligibility for inclusion in meta-analysis if studies at high risk of bias were excluded and certainty of effect estimates was 'low'. Models derived by machine learning demonstrated strong discriminative performance, but lacked rigorous external validation.Conclusions: Models externally validated for prediction of incident AF in community-based EHR demonstrate moderate predictive ability and high risk of bias. Novel methods may provide stronger discriminative performance.Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO CRD42021245093. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) has been increasingly used to identify novel genetic associations across a wide spectrum of phenotypes. This systematic review aims to summarise the PheWAS methodology, discuss the advantages and challenges of PheWAS, and provide potential implications for future PheWAS studies. Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE) and Excerpta Medica Database (EMBASE) databases were searched to identify all published PheWAS studies up until 24 April 2021. The PheWAS methodology incorporating how to perform PheWAS analysis and which software/tool could be used, were summarised based on the extracted information. A total of 1035 studies were identified and 195 eligible articles were finally included. Among them, 137 (77.0%) contained 10 000 or more study participants, 164 (92.1%) defined the phenome based on electronic medical records data, 140 (78.7%) used genetic variants as predictors, and 73 (41.0%) conducted replication analysis to validate PheWAS findings and almost all of them (94.5%) received consistent results. The methodology applied in these PheWAS studies was dissected into several critical steps, including quality control of the phenome, selecting predictors, phenotyping, statistical analysis, interpretation and visualisation of PheWAS results, and the workflow for performing a PheWAS was established with detailed instructions on each step. This study provides a comprehensive overview of PheWAS methodology to help practitioners achieve a better understanding of the PheWAS design, to detect understudied or overstudied outcomes, and to direct their research by applying the most appropriate software and online tools for their study data structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The clinical effectiveness of a 'rule-out' acute coronary syndrome (ACS) strategy for emergency department patients with chest pain, incorporating a single undetectable high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) taken at presentation, together with a non-ischaemic ECG, remains unknown.Methods: A randomised controlled trial, across eight hospitals in the UK, aimed to establish the clinical effectiveness of an undetectable hs-cTn and ECG (limit of detection and ECG discharge (LoDED)) discharge strategy. Eligible adult patients presented with chest pain; the treating clinician intended to perform investigations to rule out an ACS; the initial ECG was non-ischaemic; and peak symptoms occurred <6 hours previously. Participants were randomised 1:1 to either the LoDED strategy or the usual rule-out strategy. The primary outcome was discharge from the hospital within 4 hours of arrival, without a major adverse cardiac event (MACE) within 30 days.Results: Between June 2018 and March 2019, 632 patients were randomised; 3 were later withdrawn. Of 629 patients (age 53.8 (SD 16.1) years, 41% women), 7% had a MACE within 30 days. For the LoDED strategy, 141 of 309 (46%) patients were discharged within 4 hours, without MACE within 30 days, and for usual care, 114 of 311 (37%); pooled adjusted OR 1.58 (95% CI 0.84 to 2.98). No patient with an initial undetectable hs-cTn had a MACE within 30 days.Conclusion: The LoDED strategy facilitates safe early discharge in >40% of patients with chest pain. Clinical effectiveness is variable when compared with existing rule-out strategies and influenced by wider system factors.Trial Registration Number: ISRCTN86184521. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the impact of hypothermic neural rescue for perinatal asphyxia at birth on healthcare costs of survivors aged 6-7 years, and to quantify the relationship between costs and overall disability levels.Design: 6-7 years follow-up of surviving children from the Total Body Hypothermia for Neonatal Encephalopathy (TOBY) trial.Setting: Community study including a single parental questionnaire to collect information on children's healthcare resource use.Patients: 130 UK children (63 in the control group, 67 in the hypothermia group) whose parents consented and returned the questionnaire.Interventions: Intensive care with cooling of the body to 33.5°C for 72 hours or intensive care alone.Main Outcome Measures: Healthcare resource usage and costs over the preceding 6 months.Results: At 6-7 years, mean (SE) healthcare costs per child were £1543 (£361) in the hypothermia group and £2549 (£812) in the control group, giving a saving of -£1005 (95% CI -£2734 to £724). Greater levels of overall disability were associated with progressively higher costs, and more parents in the hypothermia group were employed (64% vs 47%). Results were sensitive to outlying observations.Conclusions: Cost results although not significant favoured moderate hypothermia and so complement the clinical results of the TOBY Children study. Estimates were however sensitive to the care requirements of two seriously ill children in the control group. A quantification of the relationship between costs and levels of disability experienced will be useful to healthcare professionals, policy makers and health economists contemplating the long-term economic consequences of perinatal asphyxia and hypothermic neural rescue.Trial Registration Number: This study reports on the follow-up of the TOBY clinical trial: ClinicalTrials. gov number NCT01092637. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine accuracy, safety and acceptability of the FreeStyle Libre Flash Glucose Monitoring System in the paediatric population.Design, Setting and Patients: Eighty-nine study participants, aged 4-17 years, with type 1 diabetes were enrolled across 9 diabetes centres in the UK. A factory calibrated sensor was inserted on the back of the upper arm and used for up to 14 days. Sensor glucose measurements were compared with capillary blood glucose (BG) measurements. Sensor results were masked to participants.Results: Clinical accuracy of sensor results versus BG results was demonstrated, with 83.8% of results in zone A and 99.4% of results in zones A and B of the consensus error grid. Overall mean absolute relative difference (MARD) was 13.9%. Sensor accuracy was unaffected by patient factors such as age, body weight, sex, method of insulin administration or time of use (day vs night). Participants were in the target glucose range (3.9-10.0 mmol/L) ∼50% of the time (mean 12.1 hours/day), with an average of 2.2 hours/day and 9.5 hours/day in hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia, respectively. Sensor application, wear/use of the device and comparison to self-monitoring of blood glucose were rated favourably by most participants/caregivers (84.3-100%). Five device related adverse events were reported across a range of participant ages.Conclusions: Accuracy, safety and user acceptability of the FreeStyle Libre System were demonstrated for the paediatric population. Accuracy of the system was unaffected by subject characteristics, making it suitable for a broad range of children and young people with diabetes.Trial Registration Number: NCT02388815. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]