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Background Visual perception of catheters and guidewires on x-ray fluoroscopy is essential for neurointervention. Endovascular robots with teleoperation capabilities are being developed, but they cannot 'see' intravascular devices, which precludes artificial intelligence (AI) augmentation that could improve precision and autonomy. Deep learning has not been explored for neurointervention and prior works in cardiovascular scenarios are inadequate as they only segment device tips, while neurointervention requires segmentation of the entire structure due to coaxial devices. Therefore, this study develops an automatic and accurate image-based catheter segmentation method in cerebral angiography using deep learning. Methods Catheters and guidewires were manually annotated on 3831 fluoroscopy frames collected prospectively from 40 patients undergoing cerebral angiography. We proposed a topology-aware geometric deep learning method (TAG-DL) and compared it with the state-of-the-art deep learning segmentation models, UNet, nnUNet and TransUNet. All models were trained on frontal view sequences and tested on both frontal and lateral view sequences from unseen patients. Results were assessed with centerline Dice score and tip-distance error. Results The TAG-DL and nnUNet models outperformed TransUNet and UNet. The best performing model was nnUNet, achieving a mean centerline-Dice score of 0.98 ±0.01 and a median tip-distance error of 0.43 (IQR 0.88) mm. Incorporating digital subtraction masks, with or without contrast, significantly improved performance on unseen patients, further enabling exceptional performance on lateral view fluoroscopy despite not being trained on this view. Conclusions These results are the first step towards AI augmentation for robotic neurointervention that could amplify the reach, productivity, and safety of a limited neurointerventional workforce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Disability, mortality and healthcare burden from fractures in older people is a growing problem worldwide. Observational studies suggest that aspirin may reduce fracture risk. While these studies provide room for optimism, randomised controlled trials are needed. This paper describes the rationale and design of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE)-Fracture substudy, which aims to determine whether daily low-dose aspirin decreases fracture risk in healthy older people. Methods ASPREE is a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled primary prevention trial designed to assess whether daily active treatment using low-dose aspirin extends the duration of disability-free and dementia-free life in 19 000 healthy older people recruited from Australian and US community settings. This substudy extends the ASPREE trial data collection to determine the effect of daily low-dose aspirin on fracture and fall-related hospital presentation risk in the 16 500 ASPREE participants aged >70 years recruited in Australia. The intervention is a once daily dose of enteric-coated aspirin (100 mg) versus a matching placebo, randomised on a 1:1 basis. The primary outcome for this substudy is the occurrence of any fracture--vertebral, hip and non-vert-non-hip--occurring post randomisation. Fall-related hospital presentations are a secondary outcome. Discussion This substudy will determine whether a widely available, simple and inexpensive health intervention--aspirin--reduces the risk of fractures in older Australians. If it is demonstrated to safely reduce the risk of fractures and serious falls, it is possible that aspirin might provide a means of fracture prevention. Trial registration number The protocol for this substudy is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12615000347561). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction The WHO established the MPOWER policy package to boost the implementation of the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) in 2008 and to provide practical guidance on policies effective at reducing smoking rates. An easily applied Abridged SimSmoke was developed to help countries gauge the effect of these policies using data from the WHO MPOWER/WHO Report (MPOWER Report) and is applied to four Eastern Mediterranean countries. Methods The number of smokers in a country is calculated using the country's smoking prevalence and population. Policy effect sizes, based on previously validated SimSmoke models, are applied to the smoker populations to determine the reduction in the number of smokers resulting from implementing policies. The number of smoking-attributable deaths is derived based on findings that half of those smokers alive today will die from smoking. Results Within 40 years, implementing the complete set of MPOWER policies is projected to reduce smoking prevalence by 29% (range 15%, 41%) and avert almost 1 (range 0.5, 1.4) million deaths in Egypt, reduce smoking prevalence by 52% (range 36%, 66%) and avert 156 000 (106 000, 196 000) deaths in Lebanon, reduce smoking prevalence by 56% (range 40%, 69%) and avert 3.5 (range 2.5, 4.3) million deaths in Pakistan, and reduce smoking prevalence by 37% (range 21%, 51%) and avert 245 000 (range 138 000, 334 000) deaths in Tunisia. Conclusions The Abridged SimSmoke model has been used to show the number of deaths from smoking and how MPOWER policies can be used to reach the WHO non-communicable deaths voluntary target for cigarette use reduction in four countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Ample evidence has shown that early-life social conditions are associated with mortality later in life. However, little attention has been given to the strength of these effects across specific age intervals from birth to old age. In this paper, we study the effect of the family's socioeconomic position and mother's marital status at birth on all-cause mortality at different age intervals in a Swedish cohort of 11 868 individuals followed across their lifespan. Methods Using the Uppsala Birth Cohort Multigenerational Study, we fitted Cox regression models to estimate age-varying HRs of all-cause mortality according to mother's marital status and family's socioeconomic position. Results Mother's marital status and family's socioeconomic position at birth were associated with higher mortality rates throughout life (HR 1.18 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.26) for unmarried mothers; 1.19 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.25) for low socioeconomic position). While the effect of family's socioeconomic position showed little variation across different age groups, the effect of marital status was stronger for infant mortality (HR 1.47 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.76); p=0.04 for heterogeneity). The results remained robust when early life and adult mediator variables were included. Conclusions Family's socioeconomic position and mother's marital status involve different dimensions of social stratification with independent effects on mortality throughout life. Our findings support the importance of improving early-life conditions in order to enhance healthy ageing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Programme evaluations conducted alongside randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have potential to enhance understanding of trial outcomes. This paper describes a multi-level programme evaluation to be conducted alongside an RCT of a falls prevention programme (RESPOND). Objectives (1) To conduct a process evaluation in order to identify the degree of implementation fidelity and associated barriers and facilitators. (2) To evaluate the primary intended impact of the programme: participation in fall prevention strategies and the factors influencing participation. (3) To identify the factors influencing RESPOND RCT outcomes: falls, fall injuries and emergency department (ED) re-presentations. Methods/design 528 community-dwelling adults aged 60-90 years presenting to two EDs with a fall will be recruited and randomly assigned to the intervention or standard care group. All RESPOND participants and RESPOND clinicians will be included in the evaluation. A mixed methods design will be used and a programme logic model will frame the evaluation. Data will be sourced from interviews, focus groups, questionnaires, clinician case notes, recruitment records, participant-completed calendars, hospital administrative datasets and audio-recordings of intervention contacts. Quantitative data will be analysed via descriptive and inferential statistics and qualitative data will be interpreted using thematic analysis. Discussion The RESPOND programme evaluation will provide information about contextual and influencing factors related to the RESPOND RCT outcomes. The results will assist researchers, clinicians and policy makers regarding decisions about future falls prevention interventions. Insights gained may be applicable to a range of chronic conditions where similar preventive intervention approaches are indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To update the evidence on the efficacy and safety of pharmacological agents in psoriatic arthritis (PsA).Methods: Systematic literature review of randomised controlled trials comparing pharmacological interventions in PsA: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, glucocorticoid, synthetic disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (sDMARDs) either conventional or targeted, biologicals (bDMARDs), placebo or any combination. Main outcomes were American College of Rheumatology (ACR)20-50, Psoriasis Area Severity Index 75, radiographic progression, and withdrawals due to adverse events (AEs). Multiple studies of the same intervention were meta-analysed using random effects.Results: In total, 25 papers and 12 abstracts were included. The efficacy of tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (including the recently added golimumab and certolizumab pegol) was confirmed and 16 articles/abstracts focused on 3 drugs with new modes of action: ustekinumab (UST), secukinumab (SEC) and apremilast (APR). All were placebo-compared trials and met their primary end point, ACR20. In 2 studies with UST ACR20 was met by 50% and 44% of patients with UST 90 mg, 42% and 44% with UST 45 mg vs 23% and 20% with placebo, respectively. In two studies with SEC ACR20 ranged 54% (SEC 300 mg), 50-51% (SEC 150 mg), 29-51% (SEC 75 mg) and 15-17% (placebo). In four studies with APR, ACR20 ranged 32-43% (APR 30 mg), 29-38% (APR 20 mg) and 17-20% (placebo). For all three drugs, no more withdrawals due to AEs than placebo were seen and, in general, safety appeared satisfactory. A strategy trial, TIght COntrol of Psoriatic Arthritis (TICOPA), showed better ACR responses with treatment adaptations upon tight control compared with standard care.Conclusions: UST, SEC and APR are new drugs with efficacy demonstrated for the treatment of PsA. No major safety signals arise, but long-term studies are needed. This review informed about the European League Against Rheumatism recommendations for management of PsA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background There is considerable evidence demonstrating socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, some of which focuses on intraurban inequalities. However, all the studies assume that the spatial variation of inequalities is stable over the time. We challenge this assumption and propose two hypotheses: (i) have spatial variations in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality at an intraurban level changed over time? and (ii) as a result of the economic crisis, has the gap between such disparities widened? In this paper, our objective is to assess the effect of the economic recession on the spatio-temporal variation of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain). Methods We used a spatio-temporal ecological design to analyse mortality inequalities at small area level in Barcelona. Mortality data and socioeconomic indicators correspond to the years 2005 and 2008-2011. We specified spatio-temporal ecological mixed regressions for both men and women using two indicators, neighbourhood and year. We allowed the coefficients of the socioeconomic variables to differ according to the levels and explicitly took into account spatio-temporal adjustment. Results For men and women both absolute and, above all, relative risks for mortality have increased since 2009. In relative terms, this means that the risk of dying has increased much more in the most economically deprived neighbourhoods than in the more affluent ones. Conclusions Although the geographical pattern in relative risks for mortality in neighbourhoods in Barcelona remained very stable between 2005 and 2011, socioeconomic inequalities in mortality at an intraurban level have surged since 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the methods, benefits and challenges associated with the adoption and translation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling within cardiovascular medicine. CFD, a specialist area of mathematics and a branch of fluid mechanics, is used routinely in a diverse range of safety-critical engineering systems, which increasingly is being applied to the cardiovascular system. By facilitating rapid, economical, low-risk prototyping, CFD modelling has already revolutionised research and development of devices such as stents, valve prostheses, and ventricular assist devices. Combined with cardiovascular imaging, CFD simulation enables detailed characterisation of complex physiological pressure and flow fields and the computation of metrics which cannot be directly measured, for example, wall shear stress. CFD models are now being translated into clinical tools for physicians to use across the spectrum of coronary, valvular, congenital, myocardial and peripheral vascular diseases. CFD modelling is apposite for minimally-invasive patient assessment. Patient-specific (incorporating data unique to the individual) and multi-scale (combining models of different length- and time-scales) modelling enables individualised risk prediction and virtual treatment planning. This represents a significant departure from traditional dependence upon registry-based, population-averaged data. Model integration is progressively moving towards 'digital patient' or 'virtual physiological human' representations. When combined with population-scale numerical models, these models have the potential to reduce the cost, time and risk associated with clinical trials. The adoption of CFD modelling signals a new era in cardiovascular medicine. While potentially highly beneficial, a number of academic and commercial groups are addressing the associated methodological, regulatory, education- and service-related challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To determine if smokers unmotivated to quit reduce usual cigarette consumption when cigarettes priced according to nicotine content are made available. Methods Randomised, parallel-group, trial (ACTRN12612000914864) undertaken in Wakatipu/Central Otago, New Zealand. Dependent adult daily smokers unmotivated to quit were randomly allocated to an intervention group provided with 12 weeks supply of free very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarettes, or to a control group, who were free to purchase their usual cigarette brand over the same period. The primary outcome was change from baseline in the daily mean number of usual cigarettes smoked over the previous week, measured at 12 weeks. Secondary outcomes at 6 and 12 weeks included cigarettes smoked per week (also measured at weeks 1-6 and 9), salivary cotinine, tobacco dependence, smoking satisfaction/craving, behavioural addiction to smoking, autonomy over smoking, motivation to stop, price at which participants would purchase VLNC cigarettes, quitting and adverse events. Results Thirty-three smokers were randomised (17 intervention, 16 control). A NZ$15 price differential (per pack of 20) based on nicotine content led to a halving in the mean number of cigarettes smoked per day over the previous week, a reduction in tobacco dependence and an increase in quitting. Intervention participants smoked a similar total number of cigarettes (usual plus VLNC) as those in the control group, exposing them to a similar level of toxicants. Conclusions Smokers unmotivated to quit reduce their usual cigarette consumption (and thus nicotine exposure) when VLNC cigarettes are made available at a significantly reduced price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background There is increased interest in the effectiveness and cobenefits of measures to promote walking and cycling, including health gains from increased physical activity and reductions in fossil fuel use and vehicle emissions. This paper analyses the changes in walking and cycling in two New Zealand cities that accompanied public investment in infrastructure married with programmes to encourage active travel. Method Using a quasi-experimental two-group pre-post study design, we estimated changes in travel behaviour from baseline in 2011 to mid-programme in 2012, and postprogramme in 2013. The intervention and control cities were matched in terms of sociodemographic variables and baseline levels of walking and cycling. A face-to-face survey obtained information on walking and cycling. We also drew from the New Zealand Travel Survey, a national ongoing survey of travel behaviour, which was conducted in the study areas. Estimates from the two surveys were combined using meta-analysis techniques. Results The trips and physical activity were evaluated. Relative to the control cities, the odds of trips being by active modes (walking or cycling) increased by 37% (95% CI 8% to 73%) in the intervention cities between baseline and postintervention. The net proportion of trips made by active modes increased by about 30%. In terms of physical activity levels, there was little evidence of an overall change. Discussion Comparing the intervention cities with the matched controls, we found substantial changes in walking and cycling, and conclude that the improvements in infrastructure and associated programmes appear to have successfully arrested the general decline in active mode use evident in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which examined whether maternal smoking during pregnancy and exposure of infants to tobacco smoke at age four months increase the risk of caries in deciduous teeth. Data used in the study were taken in Kobe City, Japan in 2004-2010. Based on the results, exposure to tobacco smoke was linked to around twofold increased risk of caries among children.

STUDY QUESTION What are the risks of all cause mortality, thromboembolism, major bleeding, and recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding associated with restarting antithrombotic treatment after gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation? METHODS This Danish cohort study (1996-2012) included all patients with atrial fibrillation discharged from hospital after gastrointestinal bleeding while receiving antithrombotic treatment. Restarted treatment regimens were single or combined antithrombotic drugs with oral anticoagulation and antiplatelets. Follow-up started 90 days after discharge to avoid confounding from use of previously prescribed drugs on discharge. Risks of all cause mortality, thromboembolism, major bleeding, and recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding were estimated with competing risks models and time dependent multiple Cox regression models. STUDY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS 4602 patients (mean age 78 years) were included. Within two years, 39.9% (95% confidence interval 38.4% to 41.3%, n=1745) of the patients had died, 12.0% (11.0% to 13.0%, n=526) had experienced thromboembolism, 17.7% (16.5% to 18.8%, n=788) major bleeding, and 12.1% (11.1% to 13.1%, n=546) recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding. 27.1% (n=924) of patients did not resume antithrombotic treatment. Compared with non-resumption of treatment, a reduced risk of all cause mortality was found in association with restart of oral anticoagulation (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.34 to 0.46), an antiplatelet agent (0.76, 0.68 to 0.86), and oral anticoagulation plus an antiplatelet agent (0.41, 0.32 to 0.52), and a reduced risk of thromboembolism was found in association with restart of oral anticoagulation (0.41, 0.31 to 0.54), an antiplatelet agent (0.76, 0.61 to 0.95), and oral anticoagulation plus an antiplatelet agent (0.54, 0.36 to 0.82). Restarting oral anticoagulation alone was the only regimen with an increased risk of major bleeding (1.37, 1.06 to 1.77) compared with nonresumption of treatment; however, the difference in risk of recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding was not significant between patients who restarted an antithrombotic treatment regimen and those who did not resume treatment. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS Among patients with atrial fibrillation who experience gastrointestinal bleeding while receiving antithrombotic treatment; subsequent restart of oral anticoagulation alone was associated with better outcomes for all cause mortality and thromboembolism compared with patients who did not resume treatment. This was despite an increased longitudinal associated risk of bleeding. FUNDING, COMPETING INTERESTS, DATA SHARING This study was supported by a grant from Boehringer-Ingelheim. Competing interests are available in the full paper on bmj.com. The authors have no additional data to share. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an ethical framework for evaluating biosafety risks of gain-of-function (GOF) experiments that create novel strains of influenza expected to be virulent and transmissible in humans, so-called potential pandemic pathogens (PPPs). Such research raises ethical concerns because of the risk that accidental release from a laboratory could lead to extensive or even global spread of a virulent pathogen. Biomedical research ethics has focused largely on human subjects research, while biosafety concerns about accidental infections, seen largely as a problem of occupational health, have been ignored. GOF/PPP research is an example of a small but important class of research where biosafety risks threaten public health, well beyond the small number of persons conducting the research.We argue that bioethical principles that ordinarily apply only to human subjects research should also apply to research that threatens public health, even if, as in GOF/PPP studies, the research involves no human subjects. Specifically we highlight the Nuremberg Code's requirements of 'fruitful results for the good of society, unprocurable by other methods', and proportionality of risk and humanitarian benefit, as broad ethical principles that recur in later documents on research ethics and should also apply to certain types of research not involving human subjects. We address several potential objections to this view, and conclude with recommendations for bringing these ethical considerations into policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The rise in electronic cigarette use by smokers may be responsible for the decreased use of licensed nicotine products and/or increased overall use of non-tobacco nicotine-containing products. This paper reports findings from the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS) tracking use of electronic cigarettes and licensed nicotine products to address this issue.Methods: Data were obtained from monthly surveys involving 14 502 cigarette smokers in England between March 2011 and November 2014. Smokers were asked about their use of electronic cigarettes and licensed nicotine products.Results: Prevalence of electronic cigarette use increased rapidly from 2.2% (95% CI 1.4% to 3.2%) in quarter 2 of 2011 to 20.8% (95% CI 18.3% to 23.4%) in quarter 3 of 2013, after which there was no change. Prevalence of licensed nicotine product use in smokers remained stable from quarter 2 of 2011 (17.4%, 95% CI 15.3% to 19.8%) to quarter 3 of 2013 (17.9%, 95% CI 15.62% to 20.5%), and thereafter declined steadily to 7.9% (95% CI 6.0% to 10.4%). Prevalence of use of any product was stable to quarter 1 of 2012, after which it increased from 18.5% (95% CI 16.3% to 21.0%) to 33.3% (95% CI 30.4% to 36.3%) in quarter 3 of 2013, and then decreased to 22.7% (95% CI 19.3% to 26.3%).Conclusions: The shapes of trajectories since 2011 suggest that electronic cigarettes are probably not responsible for the decline in use of licensed nicotine products. Electronic cigarettes appear to have increased the total market for use of non-tobacco nicotine-containing products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives Use previously secret tobacco industry documents to assess tobacco companies' routine claims of trade secret protection for information on cigarette ingredients, additives and construction made to regulatory agencies, as well as the companies' refusal to publicly disclose this information. Methods We analysed previously secret tobacco industry documents available at (http://legacy.library.ucsf. edu) to identify 100 examples of seven major tobacco companies' reverse engineering of their competitors' brands between 1937 and 2001. Results These reverse engineering reports contain detailed data for 142 different measurements for at least two companies, including physical parameters of the cigarettes, tobacco types, humectants, additives, flavourings, and smoke constituents of competitors' cigarettes. These 100 documents were distributed to 564 employees, including top managers in domestic and foreign offices across multiple departments, including executive leadership, research and design, product development, marketing and legal. These documents reported new competitors' products, measured ingredient changes over time, and informed companies' decisions regarding ingredients in their own products. Conclusions Because cigarette companies routinely analyse their competitors' cigarettes in great detail, this information is neither secret nor commercially valuable and, thus, does not meet the legal definition of a 'trade secret.' This information is only being kept 'secret' from the people consuming cigarettes and the scientific community. Public agencies should release this detailed information because it would provide valuable information about how ingredients affect addictiveness and toxicity, and would help the public health community and consumers better understand the impact of cigarette design on human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background During the 1990s, inequalities in smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status (SES) have widened in Europe. Since then, many tobacco control policies have been implemented. Yet, European overviews of recent trends in smoking inequalities are lacking. This paper aims to provide an overview of longterm trends of socioeconomic inequalities in smoking cessation in Europe. Methods We used data for 11 countries taken from Eurobarometer surveys from 1987 to 1995 and 2002- 2012, with a total study sample of 63 737 respondents. We performed multilevel logistic regression to model associations of the quit ratio (proportion former smokers of ever smokers) with SES, measured by education and occupation separately, with adjustments for age, sex and time. Results We found a significant, positive association for education and occupation with the quit ratio. The strength of the association decreased slightly from 1987 to 1995 and increased again from 2002 to 2012. Inequalities increased between the two periods in most countries and decreased in only one country. While in 1987-1995, the quit ratio increased among all SES groups and most strongly among the low SES group, in 2002-2012 it increased only among the high-education group (OR=1.38, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.87), and nonmanual occupation group (OR=1.59, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.12). Conclusions Socioeconomic inequalities in smoking cessation rates have strongly increased since the 1990s and during the 2000s. This suggests that the tobacco control policies implemented during the 2000s have not been able to counter the trend in increasing inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The WHO framework for non-communicable disease (NCD) describes risks and outcomes comprising the majority of the global burden of disease. These factors are complex and interact at biological, behavioural, environmental and policy levels presenting challenges for population monitoring and intervention evaluation. This paper explores the utility of machine learning methods applied to population-level web search activity behaviour as a proxy for chronic disease risk factors. Methods Web activity output for each element of the WHO's Causes of NCD framework was used as a basis for identifying relevant web search activity from 2004 to 2013 for the USA. Multiple linear regression models with regularisation were used to generate predictive algorithms, mapping web search activity to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) measured risk factor/disease prevalence. Predictions for subsequent target years not included in the model derivation were tested against CDC data from population surveys using Pearson correlation and Spearman's r. Results For 2011 and 2012, predicted prevalence was very strongly correlated with measured risk data ranging from fruits and vegetables consumed (r=0.81; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89) to alcohol consumption (r=0.96; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.98). Mean difference between predicted and measured differences by State ranged from 0.03 to 2.16. Spearman's r for state-wise predicted versus measured prevalence varied from 0.82 to 0.93. Conclusions The high predictive validity of web search activity for NCD risk has potential to provide real-time information on population risk during policy implementation and other population-level NCD prevention efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the adoption of the WHO's WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, governments have been pursuing progressively stronger and more wide-reaching tobacco control measures. In response, tobacco companies are frequently using international trade and investment agreements as tools to challenge domestic tobacco control measures. Several significant new trade and investment agreements that some fear may provide new legal avenues to the tobacco industry to challenge health measures are currently under negotiation, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (a 12 party agreement of Asia-Pacific regional countries) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (an agreement between the USA and the European Union). This commentary examines different options for treaty provisions that the parties could employ in these agreements to minimise legal risks relating to tobacco control measures. It recommends that parties take a comprehensive approach, combining provisions that minimise the potential costs of litigation with provisions that increase the likelihood of a state successfully defending tobacco control measures in such litigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The tobacco industry claims that illicit cigarette trade in South Africa is high and rising. This is often used as an argument not to increase the tobacco excise tax or to regulate tobacco products. Objectives To determine how the tobacco industry's estimates of the size of the illicit cigarette market have changed over time. Methods Published media articles were obtained from South African Press Cuttings; published articles and press releases were sourced from the internet. The period of interest is 1990-2012. Results Between 1990 and 2012 we found 90 newspaper articles and press statements that emphasised the tobacco industry's view on illicit trade. Articles that reported on action taken against illicit trade were excluded. Between 2006 and early 2011 the Tobacco Institute of Southern Africa, a body representing the interests of large cigarette companies, reported that South Africa's illicit cigarette market share was 20%. This share increased to 25% in late 2011 and 30% in 2012. In a 2012 presentation by Tobacco Institute of Southern Africa to National Treasury the illicit market share in 2008 was indicated as 7.9%, compared with claims in that year that the illicit market share was 20%. Industry findings that the illicit market decreased in 2007 and 2008 were not reported in the press. Conclusions The tobacco industry has adjusted previous estimates of the illicit trade share downwards to create the impression that illicit trade is high and rising. If previous estimates by the tobacco industry were incorrect the credibility of current estimates should be questioned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The developing world accounts for 99% of global maternal deaths. Men in developing countries are the chief decision-makers, determining women's access to maternal health services and influencing their health outcomes. At present, it is unclear whether involving men in maternal health can improve maternal outcomes. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to investigate the impact of male involvement on maternal health outcomes of women in developing countries. Methods Four electronic databases and grey literature sources were searched (up to May 2013), together with reference lists of included studies. Two reviewers independently screened and assessed the quality of studies based on prespecified criteria. Measures of effects were pooled and random effect meta-analysis was conducted, where possible. Results Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Male involvement was significantly associated with reduced odds of postpartum depression (OR=0.36, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.68 for male involvement during pregnancy; OR=0.34, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.62 for male involvement post partum), and also with improved utilisation of maternal health services (skilled birth attendance and postnatal care). Male involvement during pregnancy and at post partum appeared to have greater benefits than male involvement during delivery. Conclusions Male involvement is associated with improved maternal health outcomes in developing countries. Contrary to reports from developed countries, there was little evidence of positive impacts of husbands' presence in delivery rooms. However, more rigorous studies are needed to improve this area’s evidence base. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective A quantitative synthesis of evidence via standard pair-wise meta-analysis lies on the top of the hierarchy for evaluating the relative effectiveness or safety between two interventions. In most healthcare problems, however, there is a plethora of competing interventions. Network meta-analysis allows to rank competing interventions and evaluate their relative effectiveness even if they have not been compared in an individual trial. The aim of this paper is to explain and discuss the main features of this statistical technique. Methods We present the key assumptions underlying network meta-analysis and the graphical methods to visualise results and information in the network. We used one illustrative example that compared the relative effectiveness of 15 antimanic drugs and placebo in acute mania. Results A network plot allows to visualise how information flows in the network and reveals important information about network geometry. Discrepancies between direct and indirect evidence can be detected using inconsistency plots. Relative effectiveness or safety of competing interventions can be presented in a league table. A contribution plot reveals the contribution of each direct comparison to each network estimate. A comparison-adjusted funnel plot is an extension of simple funnel plot to network meta-analysis. A rank probability matrix can be estimated to present the probabilities of all interventions assuming each rank and can be represented using rankograms and cumulative probability plots. Conclusions Network meta-analysis is very helpful in comparing the relative effectiveness and acceptability of competing treatments. Several issues, however, still need to be addressed when conducting a network meta-analysis for the results to be valid and correctly interpreted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background A growing number of smokers support smoke-free laws. The theory of self-control provides one possible explanation for why smokers support laws that would restrict their own behaviour: the laws could serve as a self-control device for smokers who are trying to quit. Objective To test the hypothesis that support for smoke-free laws predicts smoking cessation. Methods We used longitudinal data (1999-2000) from a US national sample of adult smokers (n=6415) from the Current Population Survey, Tobacco Use Supplements. At baseline, smokers were asked whether they made a quit attempt in the past year. They were also asked whether they thought smoking should not be allowed in hospitals, indoor sporting events, indoor shopping malls, indoor work areas, restaurants, or bars and cocktail lounges. At 1-year follow-up, smokers were asked whether they had quit smoking. Findings Smokers who supported smoke-free laws were more likely to have made a recent quit attempt. At 1-year follow-up, those who supported smoke-free laws in 4-6 venues were more likely to have quit smoking (14.8%) than smokers who supported smoke-free laws in 1-3 venues (10.6%) or smokers who supported smoke-free laws in none of the venues (8.0%). These differences were statistically significant in multivariate analyses controlling for demographics. Conclusions Support for smoke-free laws among smokers correlates with past quit attempts and predicts future quitting. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that some smokers support smoke-free laws because the laws could help them quit smoking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Previous observational studies have claimed that birth weight and childhood wheezing disorders are associated although the results remained inconsistent. One systematic review and two systematic reviews that included meta-analyses reported inconsistent results. We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate this. Methods An online search of published papers linking childhood asthma and wheezing disorders with birth weight up to February 2014 was carried out using EMBASE and Medline medical research databases. Summary ORs were estimated using random-effects models. Subgroup meta-analyses were performed to assess the robustness of risk associations and between-study heterogeneity. Results A total of 37 studies comprising 1 712 737 participants were included in our meta-analysis. The unadjusted summary ORs for risk of childhood wheezing disorders associated with low birth weight (<2.5 kg) were 1.60 (95% CI 1.39 to 1.85, p<0.001) and 1.37 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.79, p=0.02) when compared with >2.5 and 2.5-4.0 kg birthweight groups, respectively. The overall summary OR for high birth weight (>4 kg) as compared to the 2.5-4.0 kg birthweight group was 1.02 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.04, p=0.13). There was substantial heterogeneity in the unadjusted low birth weight risk estimates which was not accounted for by predefined study characteristics. There was no significant heterogeneity in the high birth weight risk estimates. There was some evidence of funnel plot asymmetry and small study effects in the low birth weight (2.5 vs >2.5 kg and <2.5 vs 2.5-4 kg) OR estimates. Conclusions Our results suggest that low birth (<2.5 kg) is an independent risk factor for wheezing disorders during childhood and adolescence although there was substantial heterogeneity among the risk estimates. However, we found no significant association of high birth weight with wheezing disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims: The social gradient in smoking is well known, with higher rates among those in less advantaged socioeconomic position. Some recent research has reported that personality characteristics partly explain this gradient. However, the majority of existing work is limited by cross-sectional designs unsuitable to determine whether differences in conscientiousness are a predictor or a product of social inequalities. Adopting a life course perspective, we investigated in the current paper the influence of conscientiousness in early and mid-life on the social gradient in smoking and the role of potential confounding factors in a large longitudinal cohort study. Methods: Using data from the 1958 National Child Development Study, we examined the extent to which two measures of conscientiousness, one assessed with a personality questionnaire at age 50 and one derived from three related items at 16 years in childhood, explained the social gradient of smoking at age 50 by comparing nested logistic regression models that included social class at birth, cognitive ability, attention and conduct problems at age 7, and educational qualification. Results: Childhood conscientiousness was a significant predictor of smoking at 50 years (OR=0.86, CI (95%) 0.84 to 0.88), explaining 5.0% of the social gradient independent of all other variables. Childhood conscientiousness was a stronger predictor than adult conscientiousness, statistically accounting for the observed direct association of adult conscientiousness with smoking. Conclusions: Conscientiousness may be a predictor rather than a product of social differences in smoking. Inclusion of personality measures and adoption of a life course perspective add significantly to our understanding of health inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives Waterpipe smoking using sweetened, flavoured tobacco products has become a widespread global phenomenon. In this paper, we review chemical, physical and biological properties of waterpipe smoke. Data sources Peer-reviewed publications indexed in major databases between 1991 and 2014. Search keywords included a combination of: waterpipe, narghile, hookah, shisha along with names of chemical compounds and classes of compounds, in addition to terms commonly used in cellular biology and aerosol sizing. Study selection The search was limited to articles published in English which reported novel data on waterpipe tobacco smoke (WTS) toxicant content, biological activity or particle size and which met various criteria for analytical rigour including: method specificity and selectivity, precision, accuracy and recovery, linearity, range, and stability. Data extraction Multiple researchers reviewed the reports and collectively agreed on which data were pertinent for inclusion. Data synthesis Waterpipe smoke contains significant concentrations of toxicants thought to cause dependence, heart disease, lung disease and cancer in cigarette smokers, and includes 27 known or suspected carcinogens. Waterpipe smoke is a respirable aerosol that induces cellular responses associated with pulmonary and arterial diseases. Except nicotine, smoke generated using tobacco-free preparations marketed for ‘health conscious' users contains the same or greater doses of toxicants, with the same cellular effects as conventional products. Toxicant yield data from the analytical laboratory are consistent with studies of exposure biomarkers in waterpipe users. Conclusions A sufficient evidence base exists to support public health interventions that highlight the fact that WTS presents a serious inhalation hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The public health consequences of the Iraq War (2003–2011) have remained difficult to quantify, mainly due to a scarcity of adequate data. This paper is the first to assess whether and to what extent the war affected neonatal polio immunisation coverage. Method The study relies on retrospective neonatal polio vaccination histories from the 2000, 2006 and 2011 Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (N=64 141). Pooling these surveys makes it possible to reconstruct yearly trends in immunisation coverage from 1996 to 2010. The impact of the war is identified with a difference-in-difference approach contrasting immunisation trends in the autonomous Kurdish provinces, which remained relatively safe during the war, with trends in the central and southern provinces, where violence and disruption were pervasive. Results After controlling for individual and household characteristics, year of birth and province of residence, children exposed to the war were found to be 21.5 percentage points (95% CI −0.341 to −0.089) less likely to have received neonatal polio immunisation compared with non-exposed children. Conclusions The decline in neonatal polio immunisation coverage is part of a broader war-induced deterioration of routine maternal and newborn health services. Postwar strategies to promote institutional deliveries and ensure adequate vaccine availability in primary health facilities could increase dramatically the percentage of newborns immunised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers an overview of meta-regression models and possible assumptions that can be employed in mental health disorder trials to account for differences in baseline characteristics of participants between the studies of a meta-analysis. Two datasets of antidepressant trials including fluoxetine, venlafaxine, nefazodone and parosetine that applied the meta-regression models versus placebo are presented. The paper investigates the underlying risks for developing depression.

Background: How have suicide rates responded to the marked increase in unemployment spurred by the Great Recession? Our paper puts this issue into a wider perspective by assessing (1) whether the unemployment-suicide link is modified by the degree of unemployment protection, and (2) whether the effect on suicide of the present crisis differs from the effects of previous economic downturns. Methods: We analysed the unemployment-suicide link using time-series data for 30 countries spanning the period 1960–2012. Separate fixed-effects models were estimated for each of five welfare state regimes with different levels of unemployment protection (Eastern, Southern, Anglo-Saxon, Bismarckian and Scandinavian). We included an interaction term to capture the possible excess effect of unemployment during the Great Recession. Results: The largest unemployment increases occurred in the welfare state regimes with the least generous unemployment protection. The unemployment effect on male suicides was statistically significant in all welfare regimes, except the Scandinavian one. The effect on female suicides was significant only in the eastern European country group. There was a significant gradient in the effects, being stronger the less generous the unemployment protection. The interaction term capturing the possible excess effect of unemployment during the financial crisis was not significant. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the more generous the unemployment protection the weaker the detrimental impact on suicide of the increasing unemployment during the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Optimising clinical responses to deteriorating patients is an international indicator of acute healthcare quality. Observation charts incorporating track and trigger systems are an initiative to improve early identification and response to clinical deterioration. A suite of track and trigger 'Observation and Response Charts' were designed in Australia and initially tested in simulated environments. This paper reports initial clinical user experiences and views following implementation of these charts in adult general medical-surgical wards. Methods Across eight trial sites, 44 focus groups were conducted with 218 clinical ward staff, mostly nurses, who received training and had used the charts in routine clinical practice for the preceding 2-6 weeks. Transcripts of audio recordings were analysed for emergent themes using an inductive approach. Findings In this exploration of initial user experiences, key emergent themes were: tensions between vital sign 'ranges versus precision' to support decision making; using a standardised 'generalist chart in a range of specialist practice' areas; issues of 'clinical credibility', 'professional autonomy' and 'influences of doctors' when communicating abnormal signs; and 'permission and autonomy' when escalating care according to the protocol. Across themes, participants presented a range of positive, negative or mixed views. Benefits were identified despite charts not always being used up to their optimal design function. Participants reported tensions between chart objectives and clinical practices, revealing mismatches between design characteristics and human staff experiences. Overall, an initial view of 'increased activity/uncertain benefit' was uncovered. Conclusions Findings particularly reinforced the significant influences of organisational work-based cultures, disciplinary boundaries and interdisciplinary communication on implementation of this new practice chart. Optimal use of all chart design characteristics will be possible when these broader cultural issues are addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background This paper aims to assess whether 7-year-olds’ physical activity is associated with family and area-level measures of the physical and socioeconomic environments. Methods We analysed the association of environments with physical activity in 6497 singleton children from the UK Millennium Cohort Study with reliable accelerometer data (≥2 days and ≥10 h/day). Activity levels were assessed as counts per minute; minutes of moderate to vigorous activity (MVPA); and whether meeting recommended guidelines (≥60 min/day MVPA). Results Higher levels of children’s physical activity were associated with households without use of a car and with having a television in a child’s bedroom (for counts per minute only). Aspects of the home socioeconomic environment that were associated with more children’s physical activity were lone motherhood, lower maternal socioeconomic position and education, family income below 60% national median, and not owning the home. Children’s activity levels were higher when parents perceived their neighbourhood as poor for bringing up children and also when families were living in the most deprived areas. Relationships were independent of characteristics such as child’s body mass index and ethnic group. When adjusted for physical and socioeconomic correlates, the factors remaining significant in all outcomes were: household car usage and maternal education. Conclusions Although physical and socioeconomic environments are associated with children’s physical activity, much of the variation appears to be determined by the child’s home socioeconomic circumstances rather than the wider environment where they live. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is increasing interest on whether the current global economic uncertainties have an influence on the population’s mental health. In this paper, we examined the association of negative socioeconomic changes, job loss and household income reductions with incident mental disorders. The moderating effect of gender was assessed. Methods: Data come from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2 (NEMESIS-2), a representative population-based, longitudinal study. Individuals with a paid job and without a 12-month mental disorder at baseline were selected and reassessed 3 years later (2007–2009/2010–2012). Substantial household income reductions and not being at a paid job anymore were self-reported at follow-up. Multivariate logistic models were utilised to investigate the association between these negative socioeconomic changes and the incidence of mood, anxiety and substance use Diagnostic and Statistical Manual-IV disorders assessed by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0. Results: After 3 years, 6% had lost their job, 11% had a substantial household income reduction and 12.2% had developed a mental disorder. Household income reductions increased the risk of any mental disorder (aOR=1.77), particularly the risk of mood (aOR=2.24). Job loss increased the risk of mood disorders (aOR=2.02). Gender modified the relationship: job loss increased the risk of any mental disorder among men (aOR=3.04) and household income reductions did so among women (aOR=2.32). Conclusions: Negative socioeconomic changes occurring within a short time period significantly increased the risk of incident mental disorders, particularly of mood disorders. Effective interventions to alleviate the public mental health impact of negative socioeconomic changes on men and women are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To assess evidence supporting the view that 'low fibre causes childhood constipation'.Design: Triangulation integrated three approaches: a systematic review NICE guideline CG99 examining effectiveness of increasing fibre; a cohort study, Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), to assess if constipation (or hard stools) can precede fibre intake at weaning; and a literature search for twin studies to calculate heredity.Setting: CG99 examined the literature regarding the effectiveness of increasing fibre. ALSPAC asked parents about: hard stools at 4 weeks, 6 months and 2.5 years and constipation at age 4-10 years, as well as fibre intake at 2 years. Twin studies and data from ALSPAC were pooled to calculate concordance of constipation comparing monozygotic and dizygous twin pairs.Participants: CG99 reported six randomised controlled trials (RCTs). ALSPAC hard stool data from 6796 children at 4 weeks, 9828 at 6 months and 9452 at 2.5 years plus constipation data on 8401 at 4-10 years were compared with fibre intake at 2 years. Twin studies had 338 and 93 twin pairs and ALSPAC added a further 45.Results: Increasing fibre did not effectively treat constipation. Hard stools at 4 weeks predated fibre and at 6 months predicted lower fibre intake at 2 years (p=0.003). Heredity explained 59% of constipation.Conclusions: RCTs indicate that increasing fibre is not an effective treatment for constipation in children. Hard stools can precede and predict later fibre intake. Genetic inheritance explains most childhood constipation. Extended treatment with stool softeners may improve fibre intake and limit long-term damaging sequelae of constipation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Electronic prescribing (ePrescribing) or computerised provider/physician order entry (CPOE) systems can improve the quality and safety of health services, but the translation of this into reduced harm for patients remains unclear. This review aimed to synthesise primary qualitative research relating to how stakeholders experience the adoption of ePrescribing/ CPOE systems in hospitals, to help better understand why and how healthcare organisations have not yet realised the full potential of such systems and to inform future implementations and research. Methods We systematically searched 10 bibliographic databases and additional sources for citation searching and grey literature, with no restriction on date or publication language. Qualitative studies exploring the perspectives/experiences of stakeholders with the implementation, management, use and/ or optimisation of ePrescribing/CPOE systems in hospitals were included. Quality assessment combined criteria from the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme Qualitative Checklist and the Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research guidelines. Data were synthesised thematically. Results 79 articles were included. Stakeholders' perspectives reflected a mixed set of positive and negative implications of engaging in ePrescribing/ CPOE as part of their work. These were underpinned by further-reaching change processes. Impacts reported were largely practice related rather than at the organisational level. Factors affecting the implementation process and actions undertaken prior to implementation were perceived as important in understanding ePrescribing/CPOE adoption and impact. Conclusions Implementing organisations and teams should consider the breadth and depth of changes that ePrescribing/CPOE adoption can trigger rather than focus on discrete benefits/problems and favour implementation strategies that: consider the preimplementation context, are responsive to (and transparent about) organisational and stakeholder needs and agendas and which can be sustained effectively over time as implementations develop and gradually transition to routine use and system optimisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]