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OBJECTIVES: This paper used national survey data to investigate 'hardcore' smoking as predicted by the 'hardening hypothesis', and to examine the relationship between 'hardcore' smoking and socioeconomic status (SES). METHODS: Analyses were performed using data from four waves of the Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey between 2001 and 2010, a large national survey with a sample size of approximately 24 000 participants per wave. The primary outcome variable was 'hardcore' smoking, comprised of the variables: 'no quit attempt in past 12 months'; 'no plan to quit'; and smoking more than 15 cigarettes per day. The main predictor variables used were SES assessed by the Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), and survey wave. Other sociodemographic variables were also examined. RESULTS: Overall, 'hardcore' smoking remained stable from 2001 to 2010. However, 'hardcore' smoking declined among high-SES smokers (from 1.8% to 1.0%), but not among low-SES smokers (around 3.4%). 'Hardcore' smoking was strongly associated with SEIFA quintile (p<0.001). There was a significant interaction effect between top and bottom SEIFA quintiles and wave (p=0.025), with a decline in 'hardcore' smoking measures over the four waves among those in the top two SEIFA quintiles, with odds in 2010 of 0.39 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.87; p=0.012), down from 0.64 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.82; p<0.001) in 2001, while 'hardcore' smoking remained stable among those in the bottom two SEIFA quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: The results from high SES smokers suggest 'hardcore' smokers are able to quit, but outcomes among low-SES smokers are less encouraging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The US Food and Drug Administration has established a policy of substantially discounting the health benefits of reduced smoking in its evaluation of proposed regulations because of the cost to smokers of the supposed lost pleasure they suffer by no longer smoking. This study used data from nine countries of the former Soviet Union (fSU) to explore this association in a setting characterised by high rates of (male) smoking and smoking-related mortality. Methods Data came from a cross-sectional populationbased study undertaken in 2010/2011 in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. Information was collected from 18 000 respondents aged ≥18 on smoking status (never, ex-smoking and current smoking), cessation attempts and nicotine dependence. The association between these variables and self-reported happiness was examined using ordered probit regression analysis. Results In a pooled country analysis, never smokers and ex-smokers were both significantly happier than current smokers. Smokers with higher levels of nicotine dependence were significantly less happy than those with a low level of dependence. Conclusions This study contradicts the idea that smoking is associated with greater happiness. Moreover, of relevance for policy in the fSU countries, given the lack of public knowledge about the detrimental effects of smoking on health but widespread desire to quit reported in recent research, the finding that smoking is associated with lower levels of happiness should be incorporated in future public health efforts to help encourage smokers to quit by highlighting that smoking cessation may result in better physical and emotional health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives Exposure of adults to secondhand smoke (SHS) has immediate adverse effects on the cardiovascular system and causes coronary heart disease. The current study evaluated brief self-report screening measures for accurately identifying adult cardiology patients with clinically significant levels of SHS exposure in need of intervention. Design and setting A cross-sectional study conducted in a university-affiliated cardiology clinic and cardiology inpatient service. Patients Participants were 118 non-smoking patients (59% male, mean age=63.6 years, SD=16.8) seeking cardiology services. Main outcome measures Serum cotinine levels and self-reported SHS exposure in the past 24 h and 7 days on 13 adult secondhand exposure to smoke (ASHES) items. Results A single item assessment of SHS exposure in one’s own home in the past 7 days was significantly correlated with serum cotinine levels (r=0.41, p<0.001) with sensitivity ≥75%, specificity >85% and correct classification rates >85% at cotinine cut-off points of >0.215 and >0.80 ng/mL. The item outperformed multiitem scales, an assessment of home smoking rules, and SHS exposure assessed in other residential areas, automobiles and public settings. The sample was less accurate at self-reporting lower levels of SHS exposure (cotinine 0.05-0.215 ng/mL). Conclusions The single item ASHES-7d Home screener is brief, assesses recent SHS exposure over a week's time, and yielded the optimal balance of sensitivity and specificity. The current findings support use of the ASHES- 7d Home screener to detect SHS exposure and can be easily incorporated into assessment of other major vital signs in cardiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective We propose a novel approach for measuring tobacco use in a community through the chemical analysis of nicotine metabolites in urban wastewater. It offers frequent monitoring and ‘real-time’, ‘evidencebased' estimates of tobacco consumption which may complement epidemiological surveillance systems normally repeated only every few years. Methods Two urinary metabolites of nicotine, namely cotinine and trans-30-hydroxycotinine, were selected as biomarkers of tobacco consumption in urban wastewater. During smoking, a known amount of nicotine is absorbed and after metabolism excreted as metabolites in urine, ending up in the wastewater; quantitative analysis of the metabolites in the wastewater allows back-calculation of the nicotine collectively absorbed by the population producing the sewage and, indirectly, their tobacco use. Representative samples of wastewater were collected from sewage treatment plants in eight Italian cities and analysed by mass spectrometry. Mass loads of the metabolites were used to estimate nicotine consumption. Results Wastewater analysis in the cities under study was used to estimate the number of cigarettes smoked, in order to compare the results of this study with those obtained from population surveys. The number of cigarettes calculated with the two methods were closely comparable and wastewater analysis was sufficiently sensitive to confirm the differences in tobacco consumption between northern and southern Italy, previously described in population surveys. Conclusions The described approach can serve as a supplementary indicator of tobacco consumption in local communities. This approach can provide objective and updated information, which are useful to assess the efficacy of tobacco-control interventions, with the aim of designing and implementing effective tobacco control plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Mentholated cigarettes are at least as dangerous to an individual's health as non-mentholated varieties. The addition of menthol to cigarettes reduces perceived harshness of smoke, which can facilitate initiation. Here, we examine correlates of menthol use, national trends in smoking menthol and non-menthol cigarettes, and brand preferences over time. Methods We estimated menthol cigarette use during 2004-2010 using annual data on persons ≥12 years old from the National Surveys on Drug Use and Health. We adjusted self-reported menthol status for selected brands that were either exclusively menthol or nonmenthol, based on sales data. Data were weighted to provide national estimates. Results Among cigarette smokers, menthol cigarette use was more common among 12-17 year olds (56.7%) and 18-25 year olds (45.0%) than among older persons (range 30.5% to 34.7%). In a multivariable analysis, menthol use was associated with being younger, female and of non-Caucasian race/ethnicity. Among all adolescents, the percentage who smoked non-menthol cigarettes decreased from 2004-2010, while menthol smoking rates remained constant; among all young adults, the percentage who smoked non-menthol cigarettes also declined, while menthol smoking rates increased. The use of Camel menthol and Marlboro menthol increased among adolescent and young adult smokers, particularly non-Hispanic Caucasians, during the study period. Conclusions Young people are heavy consumers of mentholated cigarettes. Progress in reducing youth smoking has likely been attenuated by the sale and marketing of mentholated cigarettes, including emerging varieties of established youth brands. This study should inform the Food and Drug Administration regarding the potential public health impact of a menthol ban. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Scanty and controversial information is available on the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on smoking behaviour. No study has quantified the effects of fiscal crises on smoking prevalence. This study aimed to investigate the effects of the 2007-2008 economic crisis on smoking prevalence and number of smokers in the USA. Methods Using data from the repeated Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) surveys in pre-crisis (2005-2007) and post-crisis (2009-2010) periods on a total of 1 981 607 US adults, we separated the expected (after allowance for the demographic growth of the US population, secular smoking prevalence trends and changes in sociodemographic characteristics) from the unexpected (assumed attributable to the economic crisis) changes in the number of smokers across different employment statuses. Results Joinpoint regression analysis revealed no significant changes in smoking prevalence trends over the period 2005-2010. The crisis resulted in an increase in the number of smokers in the US by 0.6 million. This is largely due to an unexpected decrease of 1.7 million smokers among employed and an increase of 2.4 million smokers among unemployed individuals, whose smoking prevalence also remains extremely high in the post-crisis period (32.6%). Conclusions The 2008 financial crisis had a weak effect on smoking prevalence. The pro-cyclical relationship (ie, the crisis results in a lower number of smokers) found among the employed is offset by the counter-cyclical relationship (ie, the crisis results in a higher number of smokers) found among unemployed individuals. Public health interventions should specifically target those in unemployment, particularly in hard times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVES: Those with any psychiatric diagnosis have substantially greater rates of smoking and are less likely to quit smoking than those with no diagnosis. Using nationally representative data, we sought to provide estimates of smoking and longitudinal cessation rates by specific psychiatric diagnoses and mental health service use. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were analysed from a two-wave cohort survey of a US nationally representative sample (non-institutionalised adults): the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC; 2001-2002, n=43 093; 2004-2005, n=34 653). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We examined smoking rates (lifetime, past year and past year heavy) and cross-sectional quit rates among those with any lifetime or past year psychiatric diagnosis (DSM-IV). Importantly, we examined longitudinal quit rates and conducted analyses by gender and age categories. RESULTS: Those with any current psychiatric diagnosis had 3.23 (95% CI 3.11 to 3.35) times greater odds of currently smoking than those with no diagnosis, and were 25% less likely to have quit by follow-up (95% CI 20% to 30%). Prevalence varied by specific diagnoses (32.4% to 66.7%) as did cessation rates (10.3% to 17.9%). Comorbid disorders were associated with higher proportions of heavy smoking. Treatment use was associated with greater prevalence of smoking and lower likelihood of cessation. CONCLUSIONS: Those with psychiatric diagnoses remained much more likely to smoke and less likely to quit, with rates varying by specific diagnosis. Our findings highlight the need to improve our ability to address smoking and psychiatric comorbidity both within and outside of healthcare settings. Such advancements will be vital to reducing mental illness-related disparities in smoking and continuing to decrease tobacco use globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE: To describe relationships between tobacco-related environments and disparities in smoking by sexual orientation. METHODS: We examined three aspects of state-level tobacco environments, which were derived from the ImpacTeen State Level Tobacco Control Policy and Prevalence Database: (1) tobacco price and tax data and tobacco control funding; (2) tobacco control policies and (3) tobacco prevalence and norms data. This information was linked to individual-level data on sexual orientation, tobacco use and nicotine dependence in Wave 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (N=34 653; 577 LGB respondents), a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey of adults in the USA. RESULTS: Lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) adults in states with more restrictive tobacco environments were less likely to have ever smoked (AOR=0.78, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.00) and to currently smoke (AOR=0.77, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.99) than LGB adults in more permissive tobacco environments. Further, sexual orientation disparities in past and current smoking, as well as in current nicotine dependence, were lower in states with the most restrictive tobacco environments. Results were robust to adjustment for confounders at the individual and state levels. CONCLUSIONS: Restrictive state-level tobacco environments are correlates of smoking behaviours among LGB adults in the USA; such environments could potentially reduce social inequalities in smoking based on sexual orientation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Government agencies, public health organisations and tobacco control researchers rely on accurate estimates of cigarette prices for a variety of purposes. Since the 1950s, the Tax Burden on Tobacco (TBOT) has served as the most widely used source of this price data despite its limitations. Purpose This paper compares the prices and collection methods of the TBOT retail-based data and the 2003 and 2006/2007 waves of the population-based Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS). Methods From the TUS-CPS, we constructed multiple state-level measures of cigarette prices, including weighted average prices per pack (based on average prices for single-pack purchases and average prices for carton purchases) and compared these with the weighted average price data reported in the TBOT. We also constructed several measures of tax avoidance from the TUS-CPS self-reported data. Results For the 2003 wave, the average TUS-CPS price was 71 cents per pack less than the average TBOT price; for the 2006/2007 wave, the difference was 47 cents. TUS-CPS and TBOT prices were also significantly different at the state level. However, these differences varied widely by state due to tax avoidance opportunities, such as cross-border purchasing. Conclusions The TUS-CPS can be used to construct valid measures of cigarette prices. Unlike the TBOT, the TUS-CPS captures the effect of price-reducing marketing strategies, as well as tax avoidance practices and non-traditional types of purchasing. Thus, self-reported data like TUS-CPS appear to have advantages over TBOT in estimating the 'real' price that smokers face. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective A system of price-cap regulation has previously been suggested to address the market failure inherent to the tobacco industry. This would benefit public health directly (eg, by making it extremely difficult for the industry to sell cut-price cigarettes, or use price as a marketing strategy) and indirectly (eg, by reducing the available money the industry has for spending on marketing and lobbying). This paper explores the feasibility of applying such a scheme in the UK. Methods The impact of price-capping is modelled using optimistic and conservative scenarios, each with different assumptions, and using 2009 and 2010 profit data for the major companies selling tobacco in the UK. The models are used to calculate by how much would profit be reduced through the imposition of price caps, and thus, how much revenue could be raised in additional taxes, assuming the end price the consumer pays does not change. Results Tobacco companies enjoy massive profit margins, up to 67%, in the UK. The optimistic scenario suggests a potential increase in UK tobacco tax revenue of £585.7 million in 2010 (£548.4 million in 2009), while the conservative model suggests an increase in revenue of £433.6 million in 2010 (£399.2 million in 2009). This would be approximately enough to fund, twice over, UK-wide antitobacco smuggling measures, and smoking cessation services in England, including the associated pharmacotherapies, to help people stop smoking. Conclusions Applying a system of price-cap regulation in the UK would raise around £500 million per annum (US$750 million). This is likely to be an underestimate because of cautious assumptions used in the model. These significant financial benefits, in addition to the public health benefits that would be generated, suggest this is a policy that should be given serious consideration. INSET: The price cap scheme and the benefits it would bring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) have recently been attracting interest for their potential as a less harmful alternative to smoking, their rising popularity and the regulatory issues they raise. The news media can play an important role in shaping public perceptions of new technologies. It is, therefore, important to understand the ways the news media present ENDS. This paper examines how ENDS are represented in the UK and in the Scottish press. Methods Twelve national UK and Scottish newspapers and the three most popular online news sources were searched between 2007 and 2012. A thematic analysis was conducted to explore how the meanings, uses and users of ENDS are presented, and whether and how this has changed. Results Newspaper coverage of ENDS increased substantially over this period. Five key themes emerged from the analysis: getting around smokefree legislation; risk and uncertainty; healthier choice; celebrity use; price. Conclusions Drawing on the diffusion of innovations theory, we suggest that newspaper constructions of ENDS provide readers with important information about what ENDS are for, how they work, and their relative advantages. These themes, and dominance of more positive meanings, raise a number of issues for tobacco control, including concerns around celebrity use and promotion; the impact of increasing ENDS use on social norms around smoking; their potential to undermine smokefree legislation; and their promotion as effective cessation aids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The estimated effect of cigarette graphic warning labels (GWL) on smoking rates is a key input to the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) regulatory impact analysis (RIA), required by law as part of its rule-making process. However, evidence on the impact of GWLs on smoking prevalence is scarce. Objective The goal of this paper is to critically analyse FDA's approach to estimating the impact of GWLs on smoking rates in its RIA, and to suggest a path forward to estimating the impact of the adoption of GWLs in Canada on Canadian national adult smoking prevalence. Methods A quasi-experimental methodology was employed to examine the impact of adoption of GWLs in Canada in 2000, using the USA as a control. Findings We found a statistically significant reduction in smoking rates after the adoption of GWLs in Canada in comparison with the USA. Our analyses show that implementation of GWLs in Canada reduced smoking rates by 2.87-4.68 percentage points, a relative reduction of 12.1-19.6%; 33-53 times larger than FDA's estimates of a 0.088 percentage point reduction. We also demonstrated that FDA's estimate of the impact was flawed because it is highly sensitive to the changes in variable selection, model specification, and the time period analysed. Conclusions Adopting GWLs on cigarette packages reduces smoking prevalence. Applying our analysis of the Canadian GWLs, we estimate that if the USA had adopted GWLs in 2012, the number of adult smokers in the USA would have decreased by 5.3-8.6 million in 2013. Our analysis demonstrates that FDA's approach to estimating the impact of GWLs on smoking rates is flawed. Rectifying these problems before this approach becomes the norm is critical for FDA's effective regulation of tobacco products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The distribution of cigarette prices has rarely been studied and compared under different tax structures. Descriptive evidence on price distributions by countries can shed light on opportunities for tax avoidance and brand switching under different tobacco tax structures, which could impact the effectiveness of increased taxation in reducing smoking. Objective This paper aims to describe the distribution of cigarette prices by countries and to compare these distributions based on the tobacco tax structure in these countries. Methods We employed data for 16 countries taken from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project to construct survey-derived cigarette prices for each country. Self-reported prices were weighted by cigarette consumption and described using a comprehensive set of statistics. We then compared these statistics for cigarette prices under different tax structures. In particular, countries of similar income levels and countries that impose similar total excise taxes using different tax structures were paired and compared in mean and variance using a two-sample comparison test. Findings Our investigation illustrates that, compared with specific uniform taxation, other tax structures, such as ad valorem uniform taxation, mixed (a tax system using ad valorem and specific taxes) uniform taxation, and tiered tax structures of specific, ad valorem and mixed taxation tend to have price distributions with greater variability. Countries that rely heavily on ad valorem and tiered taxes also tend to have greater price variability around the median. Among mixed taxation systems, countries that rely more heavily on the ad valorem component tend to have greater price variability than countries that rely more heavily on the specific component. In countries with tiered tax systems, cigarette prices are skewed more towards lower prices than are prices under uniform tax systems. The analyses presented here demonstrate that more opportunities exist for tax avoidance and brand switching when the tax structure departs from a uniform specific tax. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction The WHO established the MPOWER policy package to boost the implementation of the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) in 2008 and to provide practical guidance on policies effective at reducing smoking rates. An easily applied Abridged SimSmoke was developed to help countries gauge the effect of these policies using data from the WHO MPOWER/WHO Report (MPOWER Report) and is applied to four Eastern Mediterranean countries. Methods The number of smokers in a country is calculated using the country's smoking prevalence and population. Policy effect sizes, based on previously validated SimSmoke models, are applied to the smoker populations to determine the reduction in the number of smokers resulting from implementing policies. The number of smoking-attributable deaths is derived based on findings that half of those smokers alive today will die from smoking. Results Within 40 years, implementing the complete set of MPOWER policies is projected to reduce smoking prevalence by 29% (range 15%, 41%) and avert almost 1 (range 0.5, 1.4) million deaths in Egypt, reduce smoking prevalence by 52% (range 36%, 66%) and avert 156 000 (106 000, 196 000) deaths in Lebanon, reduce smoking prevalence by 56% (range 40%, 69%) and avert 3.5 (range 2.5, 4.3) million deaths in Pakistan, and reduce smoking prevalence by 37% (range 21%, 51%) and avert 245 000 (range 138 000, 334 000) deaths in Tunisia. Conclusions The Abridged SimSmoke model has been used to show the number of deaths from smoking and how MPOWER policies can be used to reach the WHO non-communicable deaths voluntary target for cigarette use reduction in four countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims: The social gradient in smoking is well known, with higher rates among those in less advantaged socioeconomic position. Some recent research has reported that personality characteristics partly explain this gradient. However, the majority of existing work is limited by cross-sectional designs unsuitable to determine whether differences in conscientiousness are a predictor or a product of social inequalities. Adopting a life course perspective, we investigated in the current paper the influence of conscientiousness in early and mid-life on the social gradient in smoking and the role of potential confounding factors in a large longitudinal cohort study. Methods: Using data from the 1958 National Child Development Study, we examined the extent to which two measures of conscientiousness, one assessed with a personality questionnaire at age 50 and one derived from three related items at 16 years in childhood, explained the social gradient of smoking at age 50 by comparing nested logistic regression models that included social class at birth, cognitive ability, attention and conduct problems at age 7, and educational qualification. Results: Childhood conscientiousness was a significant predictor of smoking at 50 years (OR=0.86, CI (95%) 0.84 to 0.88), explaining 5.0% of the social gradient independent of all other variables. Childhood conscientiousness was a stronger predictor than adult conscientiousness, statistically accounting for the observed direct association of adult conscientiousness with smoking. Conclusions: Conscientiousness may be a predictor rather than a product of social differences in smoking. Inclusion of personality measures and adoption of a life course perspective add significantly to our understanding of health inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives Waterpipe smoking using sweetened, flavoured tobacco products has become a widespread global phenomenon. In this paper, we review chemical, physical and biological properties of waterpipe smoke. Data sources Peer-reviewed publications indexed in major databases between 1991 and 2014. Search keywords included a combination of: waterpipe, narghile, hookah, shisha along with names of chemical compounds and classes of compounds, in addition to terms commonly used in cellular biology and aerosol sizing. Study selection The search was limited to articles published in English which reported novel data on waterpipe tobacco smoke (WTS) toxicant content, biological activity or particle size and which met various criteria for analytical rigour including: method specificity and selectivity, precision, accuracy and recovery, linearity, range, and stability. Data extraction Multiple researchers reviewed the reports and collectively agreed on which data were pertinent for inclusion. Data synthesis Waterpipe smoke contains significant concentrations of toxicants thought to cause dependence, heart disease, lung disease and cancer in cigarette smokers, and includes 27 known or suspected carcinogens. Waterpipe smoke is a respirable aerosol that induces cellular responses associated with pulmonary and arterial diseases. Except nicotine, smoke generated using tobacco-free preparations marketed for ‘health conscious' users contains the same or greater doses of toxicants, with the same cellular effects as conventional products. Toxicant yield data from the analytical laboratory are consistent with studies of exposure biomarkers in waterpipe users. Conclusions A sufficient evidence base exists to support public health interventions that highlight the fact that WTS presents a serious inhalation hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The incidence of stroke in young patients (20-50 years old) has increased in recent decades. Unlike the use of good functional outcomes to evaluate prognosis, excellent functional outcomes are a better indicator of return to work among younger patients. The rate of return to work increases with time after stroke. This study investigated the short term (3 months) and long term (1 year) predictors of excellent functional outcomes in young patients after endovascular thrombectomy (EVT). Methods We included young patients who underwent EVT for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) due to large vessel occlusion within 6 hours after stroke onset between 2015 and 2021. Patients with intracerebral hemorrhage on pretreatment CT were excluded. The associations between clinical, imaging, and procedure variables, and excellent functional outcomes were analyzed using univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses. An excellent functional outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of ≤1. Results Of the 361 patients with AIS eligible for EVT, 55 young patients (aged 24-50 years) were included. Of these, 36.4% and 41.8% achieved excellent functional outcomes at 3 and 12 months, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that smoking was the independent negative predictor of both 3 month (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.232, 95% CI 0.058 to 0.928; p=0.039) and 12 month (aOR 0.180, 95% CI 0.044 to 0.741; p=0.018) excellent functional outcomes. Conclusions Current or former smoking habit was an independent negative predictor of both short term and long term excellent functional outcomes in young adults with AIS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The tobacco industry claims that illicit trade in cigarettes has increased sharply since the 1990s and that government has lost substantial tax revenue. Objectives (1) To determine whether cigarette excise tax revenue has been below budget in recent years, compared with previous decades. (2) To determine trends in the size of the illicit market since 1995. Methods For (1), mean percentage errors and root mean square percentage errors were calculated for budget revenue deviation for three products (cigarettes, beer and spirits), for various subperiods. For (2), predicted changes in total consumption, using actual cigarette price and GDP changes and previously published price and income elasticity estimates, were calculated and compared with changes in tax-paid consumption. Results Cigarette excise revenues were 0.7% below budget for 2000–2012 on average, compared with 3.0% below budget for beer and 4.7% below budget for spirits. There is no evidence that illicit trade in cigarettes in South Africa increased between 2002 and 2009. There is a substantial increase in illicit trade in 2010, probably peaking in 2011. In 2012 tax-paid consumption of cigarettes increased 2.6%, implying that the illicit market share decreased an estimated 0.6 percentage points. Conclusions Other than in 2010, there is no evidence that illicit trade is significantly undermining government revenue. Claims that illicit trade has consistently increased over the past 15 years, and has continued its sharp increase since 2010, are not supported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aim There is little academic research on tobacco brand loyalty and switching, and even less in restrictive marketing environments such as Australia. This paper examines tobacco brand family loyalty, reasons for choice of brand and the relation between these and sociodemographic variables over a period of 10 years in Australia. Methods Data from current Australian smokers from 9 waves of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation 4-Country Survey covering the period from 2002 to early 2012. Key measures reported were having a regular brand, use for at least 1 year, brand stability (derived from same reported brand at successive waves), and reasons for choosing brands. Results Measures of brand loyalty showed little change across the period, with around 80% brand stability and 95% reporting a regular brand. Older adults were more brand-loyal than those under 25. Young people's brand choice was influenced more by friends, whereas older adults were more concerned about health. Price was the most reported reason for brand switching. Those in the higher income tertiles showed more loyalty than those in the lowest. The least addicted smokers also showed less brand loyalty. We found no clear relationship between brand loyalty and policies that were implemented to affect tobacco use. Conclusions Levels of brand loyalty in Australia are quite high and consistent, and do not appear to have been influenced greatly by changes in tobacco control policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective The purpose of this paper was to examine trends in the use of premium and discount cigarette brands and determine correlates of type of brand used and brand switching. Methods Data from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) US adult smoker cohort survey were analysed. The total study sample included 6669 adult cigarette smokers recruited and followed from 2002 to 2011 over eight different survey waves. Each survey wave included an average of 1700 smokers per survey with replenishment of those lost to follow-up. Results Over the eight survey waves, a total of 260 different cigarette brands were reported by smokers, of which 17% were classified as premium and 83% as discount brands. Marlboro, Newport, and Camel were the most popular premium brands reported by smokers in our sample over all eight survey waves. The percentage of smokers using discount brands increased between 2002 and 2011, with a marked increase in brand switching from premium to discount cigarettes observed after 2009 corresponding to the $0.61 increase in the federal excise tax on cigarettes. Cigarette brand preferences varied by age group and income levels with younger, higher income smokers more likely to report smoking premium brand cigarettes, while older, middle and lower income, heavier smokers were more likely to report using discount brands. Conclusions Our data suggest that demographic and smoking trends favour the continued growth of low priced cigarette brands. From a tobacco control perspective, the findings from this study suggest that governments should consider enacting stronger minimum pricing laws in order to keep the base price of cigarettes high, since aggressive price marketing will likely continue to be used by manufacturers to compete for the shrinking pool of remaining smokers in the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background India’s Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act bans tobacco sales and advertisements within 100 yards of educational institutions. In schooladjacent neighbourhoods in Mumbai, we assessed adherence to these policies and whether tobacco vendor and advertisement densities were associated with students' tobacco use. Methods High school students' tobacco use was measured using a multistage cluster sampling survey (n=1533). Field geographic information systems data were obtained for all tobacco vendors and advertisements within 500 m of schools (n=26). Random-effects multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate associations of tobacco vendor and advertisement densities with ever tobacco use, current smokeless tobacco use and current tobacco use. Results There were 1741 tobacco vendors and 424 advertisements within 500 m of schools, with 221 vendors (13%) and 42 advertisements (10%) located within 100 m. School-adjacent tobacco vendor density within 100 m was not associated with the tobacco use outcomes, but tobacco advertisement density within 100 m was associated with all outcomes when comparing highest to lowest density tertiles: ever use (OR: 2.01; 95% CI 1.00 to 4.07), current use (2.23; 1.16, 4.28) and current smokeless tobacco use (2.01; 1.02, 3.98). Tobacco vendor density within 200, 300, 400 and 500 m of schools was associated with current tobacco use and current smokeless tobacco use, but not ever use. Conclusions The tobacco sales ban near educational institutions could be expanded beyond 100 m. Greater enforcement is needed regarding the current bans, particularly because advertisement density within 100 m of schools was associated with all students' tobacco use outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a survey on smokers that assessed if the relationship between beliefs and smoking behaviors was in consistent with Cognitive Dissonance Theory. It included adult smokers from Canada, U.S., Great Britain and Australia. The findings revealed that smokers with no intetion of quitting across the three waves, were inclined towards the highest levels of rationalizations for smoking. It suggests studies to determine if the change in beliefs has any effect on intentions to quit.