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Background: A better understanding of sociodemographic transition patterns between single, dual and poly tobacco product use may help improve tobacco control policy interventions., Methods: HRs of transition between never, non-current (no past 30-day use), cigarette, e-cigarette, other combustible, smokeless tobacco (SLT), dual and poly tobacco use states in adults were estimated for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education and income using a multistate model for waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study (2013-2017), a US-based cohort study, accounting for complex survey design., Results: Sole cigarette and SLT use were persistent, with 77% and 78% of adults continuing use after one wave. Other use states were more transient, with 29%-48% of adults reporting the same pattern after one wave. If single-product users transitioned, it was most likely to non-current use while dual or poly cigarette users were most likely to transition to exclusive cigarette use. Males were more likely than females to initiate combustible product use after a history of no use, and after a period of tobacco use cessation. Hispanic and non-Hispanic black participants initiated cigarette use at higher rates than non-Hispanic white participants, and had higher rates of experimentation with tobacco products between study waves. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with higher rates of transition into combustible tobacco use., Conclusions: Dual and poly tobacco use is largely transient, while single-use patterns are more stable over time. Transitions differ by age, sex, race/ethnicity, education and income, which may influence the impact of current and future tobacco control efforts., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: The US Food and Drug Administration most recently announced its intention to ban menthol cigarettes and cigars nationwide in April 2021. Implementation of the ban will require evidence that it would improve public health. This paper simulates the potential public health impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars through its impacts on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and switching to nicotine vaping products (NVPs)., Methods: After calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and NVP use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario. Applying estimates from a recent expert elicitation on the behavioural impacts of a menthol ban, we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060., Results: As a result of the ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications., Conclusions and Relevance: Our findings strongly support the implementation of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Even prior to 2018, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) began to dramatically change the landscape of tobacco products and product use patterns in the USA., Methods: Using a Markov multistate transition model accounting for complex survey design, transition rates between never, non-current, cigarette, ENDS and dual use states were estimated for 23 253 adult participants in waves 1-4 (approximately 2013-2017) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study. We made short-term transition projections and estimated HRs for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education and income., Results: Cigarette use was persistent among adults, with 89.7% (95% CI 89.1% to 90.3%) of exclusive cigarette users and 86.1% (95% CI 84.4% to 87.9%) of dual users remaining cigarette users (either exclusive or dual) after one wave. In contrast, ENDS use was less persistent, with 72.1% (95% CI 69.6% to 74.6%) of exclusive ENDS users and 50.5% (95% CI 47.8% to 53.3%) of dual users remaining ENDS users (with or without cigarettes) after one wave. Exclusive ENDS users were more likely to start cigarette use after one wave than either never users (HR 25.2; 95% CI 20.9 to 30.5) or non-current users (HR 5.0; 95% CI 4.3 to 5.8). Dual users of ENDS and cigarettes were more likely to stop using cigarettes than exclusive cigarette users (HR 1.9; 95% CI 1.6 to 2.3). Transition rates varied among sociodemographic groups., Conclusions: Multistate transition models are an effective tool for uncovering and characterising longitudinal patterns and determinants of tobacco use from complex survey data. ENDS use among US adults was less persistent than cigarette use prior to 2018., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)