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ObjectiveThe association between ulcerative colitis (UC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) is widely accepted, although attenuated risk has been reported in recent years. Colonoscopic surveillance is recommended with intervals based on established clinical risk factors. Nevertheless, a significant number of patients develop interval cancers, indicating the need of improved individualised assessment. In the present study, we evaluated clinical risk factors associated with CRC during a prescheduled follow-up 20 years after diagnosis, the IBSEN study.DesignA population-based inception cohort of patients diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease from 1 January 1990 until 31 December 1993, prospectively followed at 1, 5, 10 and 20 years after diagnosis. A total of 517 patients with UC were included; 264 (51 %) men; median age at inclusion 37.4 years (4–88).ResultsThe overall incidence of CRC was 1.6% (8/517) at a 20-year follow-up. The total lifetime risk of CRC prior to or after UC diagnosis was 2.3%. (12/517). Patients older than 70 years at diagnosis had a 15-fold higher risk of CRC compared with those diagnosed when younger than 40 years, with HR 15.68 (95% CI: 1.31 to 187.92). Neither sex, first-degree relative with CRC, extent of colitis nor primary sclerosing cholangitis affected the risk of CRC.ConclusionThe risk of CRC in UC was low and comparable with the risk of CRC in the background population of Norway.

Objective To compare the work disability (WD) rate in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients 10 years after disease onset, with the WD rate in the background population,and to assess whether clinical or demographic factors in the early disease course could predict WD after 10 years disease. Design A large, population-based inception cohort (the Inflammatory Bowel in South Eastern Norway cohort) was prospectively followed up at 1, 5 and 10 years after diagnosis. At the 10-year follow-up data on WD were collected. Data on disability pension (DP) in the background population were retrieved from public databases. We calculated overall and age-standardised relative risks (RR) for DP. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine predictive factors. Results A total of 518 patients completed the 10-year follow-up (response rate 83.5%). The overall disability rate in the IBD population was 18.8%, and the RR was 1.8 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.3) for ulcerative colitis (UC) and 2.0 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.7) for Crohn9s disease (CD). The RR for DP was highest in patients aged below 40 years while patients aged over 60 years had no increased RR. Steroid treatment at the 1-year follow-up predicted WD after 10 years disease in both CD and UC. In UC, increased C-reactive protein (CRP) or erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) at diagnosis, early colectomy, and more than two relapses during the first year of the disease also predicted WD. Conclusion Ten years after disease onset IBD patients had an increased RR for DP as compared with the background population. The youngest patients had the highest RR. Markers of severe disease course predicted WD.

Background: In Crohn’s disease (CD), studies associating phenotype at diagnosis and subsequent disease activity are important for patient counselling and health care planning. Aims: To calculate disease recurrence rates and to correlate these with phenotypic traits at diagnosis. Methods: A prospectively assembled uniformly diagnosed European population based inception cohort of CD patients was classified according to the Vienna classification for disease phenotype at diagnosis. Surgical and non-surgical recurrence rates throughout a 10 year follow up period were calculated. Multivariate analysis was performed to classify risk factors present at diagnosis for recurrent disease. Results: A total of 358 were classified for phenotype at diagnosis, of whom 262 (73.2%) had a first recurrence and 113 patients (31.6%) a first surgical recurrence during the first 10 years after diagnosis. Patients with upper gastrointestinal disease at diagnosis had an excess risk of recurrence (hazard ratio 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13–2.10)) whereas age ⩾40 years at diagnosis was protective (hazard ratio 0.82 (95% CI 0.70–0.97)). Colonic disease was a protective characteristic for resective surgery (hazard ratio 0.38 (95% CI 0.21–0.69)). More frequent resective surgical recurrences were reported from Copenhagen (hazard ratio 3.23 (95% CI 1.32–7.89)). Conclusions: A mild course of disease in terms of disease recurrence was observed in this European cohort. Phenotype at diagnosis had predictive value for disease recurrence with upper gastrointestinal disease being the most important positive predictor. A phenotypic North-South gradient in CD may be present, illustrated by higher surgery risks in some of the Northern European centres.