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Objective: Epidemiological data for primary discoid lupus erythematosus (pDLE) remain limited, particularly for racial/ethnic populations in the USA. The Manhattan Lupus Surveillance Program (MLSP) is a population-based retrospective registry of cases with SLE and related diseases including pDLE in Manhattan and was used to provide estimates of the prevalence and incidence of pDLE across major racial/ethnic populations., Methods: MLSP cases were identified from rheumatologists, hospitals and population databases. Two case definitions were used for pDLE: the primary case definition which was any physician diagnosis found in the chart and a secondary case definition which was limited to cases diagnosed by a rheumatologist and/or dermatologist. Rates among Manhattan residents were age-adjusted, and capture-recapture analyses were conducted to assess case under-ascertainment., Results: Based on the primary definition, age-adjusted overall prevalence and incidence rates of pDLE among Manhattan residents were 6.5 and 0.8 per 100 000 person-years, which increased to 9.0 and 1.3 after capture-recapture adjustment. Prevalence and incidence rates were approximately two and six times higher, respectively, among women compared with men (p<0.0001). Higher prevalence was also found among non-Latino blacks (23.5) and Latinos (8.2) compared with non-Latino whites (1.8) and non-Latino Asians (0.6) (p<0.0001). Incidence was highest among non-Latino blacks (2.4) compared with all other racial/ethnic groups. Similar relationships were observed for the secondary case definition., Conclusion: Data from the MLSP provide epidemiological estimates for pDLE among the major racial/ethnic populations in the USA and reveal disparities in pDLE prevalence and incidence by sex and race/ethnicity among Manhattan residents., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Formidable impediments stand in the way of treatment development for lupus. These include the unwieldy size of current trials, international competition for scarce patients, complex outcome measures and a poor understanding of these outcomes in the world at large. The heterogeneity of the disease itself coupled to superimposition of variegated background polypharmacy has created enough immunological noise to virtually ensure the failure of lupus treatment trials, leaving an understandable suspicion that at least some of the results in testing failed drugs over the years may not have been negative, but merely uninterpretable. The authors have consulted with many clinical trial investigators, biopharmaceutical developers and stakeholders from government and voluntary sectors. This paper examines the available evidence that supports workable trial designs and proposes approaches to improve the odds of completing interpretable treatment development programs for lupus., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JTM, MD Consultant: Anthera, Amgen, Baxalta, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Celgene Corporation, Eisai, EMD Serono; Exagen Diagnostics, Genentech, GSK, Gilead, ImmuPharma PLC, Horizon, Incyte, Janssen Pharmaceuticals; Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals, MedImmune/AstraZeneca, Neovacs SA, Pfizer, ReAlta, RRD International, Sanofi, Takeda Pharmaceuticals USA; UCB. VPW, MD Consultant: Resolve, Eli Lilly, Biogen, Idera, Medimmune, Genentech, BMS, Amgen, Penn own the copywright for the CLASI. IB MD, FRCP Research Support: Roche, GSK and Genzyme, and Sanofi Consulting/Speaker: Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, GSK and UCB. IB is a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Senior Investigator and is funded by Arthritis Research UK, the Medical Research Council and the NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre. BR MD Consultant: Alexion, Aurinia, Biogen, Biomarin, Bristol-Myers Squibb, EMB Serono, Fraizer, Genentech, Gilead, Eli Lilly, Lupus Foundation of America, Mallinckrodt, Pfizer, Pharmalink, Retrophin, Rigel, Trinity, Trinity Partners. JM MD, MMSc Consultant/Advisor: GSK and Biogen IDEC in Lupus indications. EG MD, MPH Consultant: Ablynx/PPDI Data Monitoring Board: Janssen Clinical Trial Investigator: Aurina, BMS, Genentech, GSK. CA MD Consultant: GSK Research Support: GlaxoSmithKline, EMD Serrono, Xencor, Takeda Pharmaceuticals and Janssen. BC MD Investigator: Daavin Corporation and Biogen. MD’E MD Consultant: Kezar Abbvie Independent Data Monitoring Committee: Janssen Genentech Biogen. KK MD Consultant: Amgen, Eli Lilly, Genentech, Roche, BMS, Medimmune, AstraZeneca, Janssen, Xencor, Anthera, Exagen, Baxalta, Biogen Idec, Sorrento Therapeutics Grants/Contracts: NIH, Lupus Research Alliance, Sanford Regenerative Medicine Consortium, Pfizer, Ablynx, Resolve, Celgene, Takeda, Questcor, Proximagen, UCB, Gilead, Ampel, Kirin. KC MD MPH Consultant: AstraZeneca GSK Merck Research Collaborations: AstraZeneca GSK Merck. Research Support: NIH. SM MD, MPH Consultant: Exagen Diagnotics, Inc; GSK, UCB Advisory Board, Lupus Foundation of America (Medical Director), AstraZeneca (Advisory Board).

Objective: The aim of this study was to describe the frequency, attribution, outcome and predictors of seizures in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)., Methods: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics, or SLICC, performed a prospective inception cohort study. Demographic variables, global SLE disease activity (SLE Disease Activity Index 2000), cumulative organ damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI)) and neuropsychiatric events were recorded at enrolment and annually. Lupus anticoagulant, anticardiolipin, anti-β(2) glycoprotein-I, antiribosomal P and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor antibodies were measured at enrolment. Physician outcomes of seizures were recorded. Patient outcomes were derived from the SF-36 (36-Item Short Form Health Survey) mental component summary and physical component summary scores. Statistical analyses included Cox and linear regressions., Results: The cohort was 89.4% female with a mean follow-up of 3.5±2.9 years. Of 1631 patients, 75 (4.6%) had ≥1 seizure, the majority around the time of SLE diagnosis. Multivariate analysis indicated a higher risk of seizures with African race/ethnicity (HR (CI): 1.97 (1.07 to 3.63); p=0.03) and lower education status (1.97 (1.21 to 3.19); p<0.01). Higher damage scores (without neuropsychiatric variables) were associated with an increased risk of subsequent seizures (SDI=1:3.93 (1.46 to 10.55); SDI=2 or 3:1.57 (0.32 to 7.65); SDI≥4:7.86 (0.89 to 69.06); p=0.03). There was an association with disease activity but not with autoantibodies. Seizures attributed to SLE frequently resolved (59/78 (76%)) in the absence of antiseizure drugs. There was no significant impact on the mental component summary or physical component summary scores. Antimalarial drugs in the absence of immunosuppressive agents were associated with reduced seizure risk (0.07 (0.01 to 0.66); p=0.03)., Conclusion: Seizures occurred close to SLE diagnosis, in patients with African race/ethnicity, lower educational status and cumulative organ damage. Most seizures resolved without a negative impact on health-related quality of life. Antimalarial drugs were associated with a protective effect.

Aims: To compare the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG) 2004, the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment (SELENA) flare index (SFI) and physician's global assessment (PGA) in assessing flares of disease activity in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)., Methods: Sixteen patients with active SLE were assessed by a panel of 16 rheumatologists. The order in which the patients were seen was randomised using a 4×4 Latin square design. Each patient's flare status was determined at each assessment using the BILAG 2004 activity index; the SFI and a PGA. A group of five specialists designated each patient into severe, moderate, mild or no flare categories., Results: The rate of complete agreement (95% CI) of the four individual examining physicians for any flare versus no flare was 81% (55% to 94%), 75% (49% to 90%) and 75% (49% to 90%) for the BILAG 2004 index, SELENA flare instrument and PGA, respectively. The overall agreement between flare defined by BILAG 2004 and the SFI was 81% and when type of flare was considered was 52%. Intraclass correlation coefficients (95% CI), as a measure of internal reliability, were 0.54 (0.32 to 0.78) for BILAG 2004 flare compared with 0.21 (0.08 to 0.48) for SELENA flare and 0.18 (0.06 to 0.45) for PGA. Severe flare was associated with good agreement between the indices but mild/moderate flare was much less consistent., Conclusions: The assessment of flare in patients with SLE is challenging. No flare and severe flare are identifiable but further work is needed to optimise the accurate 'capture' of mild and moderate flares.

Objectives: To determine the frequency, accrual, attribution and outcome of neuropsychiatric (NP) events and impact on quality of life over 3 years in a large inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)., Methods: The study was conducted by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics. Patients were enrolled within 15 months of SLE diagnosis. NP events were identified using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions, and decision rules were derived to determine the proportion of NP disease attributable to SLE. The outcome of NP events was recorded and patient-perceived impact determined by the SF-36., Results: 1206 patients (89.6% female) with a mean (+/-SD) age of 34.5+/-13.2 years were included in the study. The mean disease duration at enrollment was 5.4+/-4.2 months. Over a mean follow-up of 1.9+/-1.2 years, 486/1206 (40.3%) patients had > or =1 NP events, which were attributed to SLE in 13.0-23.6% of patients using two a priori decision rules. The frequency of individual NP events varied from 47.1% (headache) to 0% (myasthenia gravis). The outcome was significantly better for those NP events attributed to SLE, especially if they occurred within 1.5 years of the diagnosis of SLE. Patients with NP events, regardless of attribution, had significantly lower summary scores for both mental and physical health over the study., Conclusions: NP events in patients with SLE are of variable frequency, most commonly present early in the disease course and adversely impact patients' quality of life over time. Events attributed to non-SLE causes are more common than those due to SLE, although the latter have a more favourable outcome.

Background: Recent evidence supports an association between systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL)., Objectives: To describe demographic factors, subtypes, and survival of patients with SLE who develop NHL., Methods: A multi-site cohort of 9547 subjects with definite SLE was assembled. Subjects at each centre were linked to regional tumour registries to determine cancer cases occurring after SLE diagnosis. For the NHL cases ascertained, descriptive statistics were calculated, and NHL subtype frequency and median survival time of patients determined., Results: 42 cases of NHL occurred in the patients with SLE during the 76,948 patient-years of observation. The median age of patients at NHL diagnosis was 57 years. Thirty six (86%) of the 42 patients developing NHL were women, reflecting the female predominance of the cohort. In the patients, aggressive histological subtypes appeared to predominate, with the most commonly identified NHL subtype being diffuse large B cell (11 out of 21 cases for which histological subtype was available). Twenty two of the patients had died a median of 1.2 years after lymphoma diagnosis., Conclusions: These data suggest aggressive disease in patients with SLE who develop NHL. Continuing work should provide further insight into the patterns of presentation, prognosis, and aetiology of NHL in SLE.