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Abstract Background We aimed to develop and validate a tool to identify which pregnant/lactating young South African women (≤ 24 years) are at risk of HIV infection. Methods Data from three national South African Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) evaluations were used to internally validate three HIV acquisition risk models for young postpartum women. We used univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine which risk factors were significant. Model coefficients were rounded and stratified into risk groups and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was computed. Models were developed to determine which risk factors provided the most predictive accuracy whilst remining clinically meaningful. Results Data from 9 456 adult and 4 658 young pregnant and lactating women were included in the development and validation data sets, respectively. The optimal model included the following risk factors: age (20–24 years old), informal house structure, two or more pregnancies, mothers who had knowledge of when they received their last HIV test result, no knowledge of the infant’s father’s HIV status, no knowledge of breastfeeding as a mode of MTCT and knowledge of PMTCT programme. The mean AUROC was 0.71 and 0.72 in the development and validation datasets respectively. The optimum cut off score was ≥ 27, having 84% sensitivity, 44% specificity, and identifying 44% of high-risk women eligible for PrEP. Conclusion The optimal model to be used as a possible risk scoring tool to allow for early identification of those pregnant/lactating women most at-risk of HIV acquisition included both statistically as well as clinically meaningful risk factors. A field-based study is needed to test and validate the effectiveness of this targeted approach.

Abstract Background The 2016 ‘Start Free, Stay Free, AIDS Free’ global agenda, builds on the 2011-2015 ‘Global Plan’. It prioritises 22 countries where 90% of the world’s HIV-positive pregnant women live and aims to eliminate vertical transmission of HIV (EMTCT) and to keep mothers alive. By 2019, no Global Plan priority country had achieved EMTCT; however, 11 non-priority countries had. This paper synthesises the characteristics of the first four countries validated for EMTCT, and of the 21 Global Plan priority countries located in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We consider what drives vertical transmission of HIV (MTCT) in the 21 SSA Global Plan priority countries. Methods A literature review, using PubMed, Science direct and the google search engine was conducted to obtain global and national-level information on current HIV-related context and health system characteristics of the first four EMTCT-validated countries and the 21 SSA Global Plan priority countries. Data representing only one clinic, hospital or region were excluded. Additionally, key global experts working on EMTCT were contacted to obtain clarification on published data. We applied three theories (the World Health Organisation’s building blocks to strengthen health systems, van Olmen’s Health System Dynamics framework and Baral’s socio-ecological model for HIV risk) to understand and explain the differences between EMTCT-validated and non-validated countries. Additionally, structural equation modelling (SEM) and linear regression were used to explain associations between infant HIV exposure, access to antiretroviral therapy and two outcomes: (i) percent MTCT and (iii) number of new paediatric HIV infections per 100 000 live births (paediatric HIV case rate). Results EMTCT-validated countries have lower HIV prevalence, less breastfeeding, fewer challenges around leadership, governance within the health sector or country, infrastructure and service delivery compared with Global Plan priority countries. Although by 2016 EMTCT-validated countries and Global Plan priority countries had adopted a public health approach to HIV prevention, recommending lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women, EMCT-validated countries had also included contact tracing such as assisted partner notification, and had integrated maternal and child health (MCH) and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services, with services for HIV infection, sexually transmitted infections, and viral hepatitis. Additionally, Global Plan priority countries have limited data on key SRH indicators such as unmet need for family planning, with variable coverage of antenatal care, HIV testing and triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) and very limited contact tracing. Structural equation modelling (SEM) and linear regression analysis demonstrated that ART access protects against percent MTCT (p

Abstract Background Despite improved policies to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT), adherence to maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) and infant Nevirapine prophylaxis (NVP) is low in South Africa. We describe ART adherence amongst a cohort of HIV-positive mothers and HIV-exposed but uninfected infants from 6 weeks until 18 months post-delivery and identify risk factors for nonadherence. Methods Data were collected in 2012–2014 through a nationally representative survey of PMTCT effectiveness. Mother-infant pairs were enrolled during the infant’s first immunization visit at 6 weeks. Mothers and HIV-exposed infants (2811 pairs) were followed to 18 months at 3-month intervals. Mothers who self-reported being on ART at 6 weeks postpartum (N = 1572 (55.9%)) and infants on NVP at 6 weeks (N = 2370 (84.3%)) were eligible for this analysis and information about their adherence was captured at each interview they attended thereafter. We defined nonadherence within each 3-month interval as self-report of missing > 5% of daily ART/NVP doses, estimated adherence using a Cox survival curve with Andersen & Gill setup for recurring events, and identified risk factors for nonadherence with an extended Cox regression model (separately for mothers and infants) in Stata 13. Results are not nationally representative as this is a subgroup analysis of the follow-up cohort. Results Amongst mothers on ART at 6 weeks postpartum, cumulative adherence to maternal ART until 18 months was 63.4%. Among infants on NPV at 6 weeks postpartum, adherence to NVP was 74.5%.. Risk factors for nonadherence to maternal ART, controlling for other factors, included mother’s age (16–24 years vs. ≥34 years, adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR): 1.9, 95% CI: 1.4–2.5), nondisclosure of HIV status to anyone (nondisclosure vs. disclosure: aHR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.3–2.1), and timing of ART initiation (initiated ART after delivery vs. initiated ART before delivery: aHR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.3–2.0). Provincial variation was seen in nonadherence to infant NVP, controlling for other factors. Conclusion Maintaining ART adherence until 18 months postpartum remains a crucial challenge, with maternal ART adherence among the six week maternal ART cohort below 65% and infant NVP adherence among breastfeeding infants in this cohort below 75%.This is gravely concerning, given the global policy shift to lifelong ART amongst pregnant and lactating women, and the need for extended infant prophylaxis amongst mothers who are not virally suppressed. Our findings suggest that young mothers and mothers who do not disclose their status should be targeted with messages to improve adherence, and that late maternal ART initiation (after delivery) increases the risk of maternal nonadherence.

Abstract Background In June 2015, South Africa introduced early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) at birth and ten weeks postpartum. Guidelines recommended return of birth results within a week and ten weeks postpartum results within four weeks. Task shifting was also suggested to increase service coverage. This study aimed to understand factors affecting return of EID results to caregivers. Methods Secondary analysis of data gathered from 571 public-sector primary health care facilities (PHCs) during a nationally representative situational assessment, was conducted. The assessment was performed one to three months prior to facility involvement in the 2010 evaluation of the South African programme to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (SAPMTCTE). Self-reported infrastructural and human resource EID-related data were collected from managers and designated staff using a structured questionnaire. The main outcome variable was ‘EID turn-around-time (TAT) to caregiver’ (caregiver TAT), measured as reported number of weeks from infant blood draw to caregiver receipt of results. This was dichotomized as either short (≤3 weeks) or delayed (> 3 weeks) caregiver TAT. Logit-based risk difference analysis was used to assess factors associated with short caregiver TAT. Analysis included TAT to facility (facility TAT), defined as reported number of weeks from infant blood draw to facility receipt of results. Results Overall, 26.3% of the 571 PHCs reported short caregiver TAT. In adjusted analyses, short caregiver TAT was less achieved when facility TAT was > 7 days (versus ≤7 days) (adjusted risk difference (aRD): − 0.2 (95% confidence interval − 0.3-(− 0.1)), p = 0.006 for 8–14 days and − 0.3 (− 0.5-(− 0.1)), p = 0.006 for > 14 days), and in facilities with staff nurses (compared to those without) (aRD: − 9.4 (− 16.6-(− 2.2), p = 0.011). Conclusion Although short caregiver TAT for EID was only reported in approximately 26% of facilities, these facilities demonstrate that achieving EID TAT of ≤3 weeks is possible, making timely ART initiation within 3 weeks of diagnosis feasible within the public health sector. Our adjusted analyses underpin the need for quick return of results to facilities. They also raise questions around staff mentoring: we hypothesise that facilities with staff nurses were likely to have fewer professional nurses, and thus inadequate senior support.