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Abstract Background Antidepressant discontinuation is associated with a broad range of adverse effects. Debilitating discontinuation symptoms can impede the discontinuation process and contribute to unnecessary long-term use of antidepressants. Antidepressant trials reveal large placebo effects, indicating a potential use of open-label placebo (OLP) treatment to facilitate the discontinuation process. We aim to determine the effect of OLP treatment in reducing antidepressant discontinuation symptoms using a series of N-of-1 trials. Methods A series of randomized, single-blinded N-of-1 trials will be conducted in 20 patients with fully remitted DSM-V major depressive disorder, experiencing moderate to severe discontinuation symptoms following antidepressant discontinuation. Each N-of-1 trial consists of two cycles, each comprising two-week alternating periods of OLP treatment and of no treatment in a random order, for a total of eight weeks. Our primary outcome will be self-reported discontinuation symptoms rated twice daily via the smartphone application ‘StudyU’. Secondary outcomes include expectations about discontinuation symptoms and (depressed) mood. Statistical analyses will be based on a Bayesian multi-level random effects model, reporting posterior estimates of the overall and individual treatment effects. Discussion Results of this trial will provide insight into the clinical application of OLP in treating antidepressant discontinuation symptoms, potentially offering a new cost-effective therapeutic tool. This trial will also determine the feasibility and applicability of a series of N-of-1 trials in a clinical discontinuation trial. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT05051995, first registered September 20, 2021.

Abstract Background The aggregation of a series of N-of-1 trials presents an innovative and efficient study design, as an alternative to traditional randomized clinical trials. Challenges for the statistical analysis arise when there is carry-over or complex dependencies of the treatment effect of interest. Methods In this study, we evaluate and compare methods for the analysis of aggregated N-of-1 trials in different scenarios with carry-over and complex dependencies of treatment effects on covariates. For this, we simulate data of a series of N-of-1 trials for Chronic Nonspecific Low Back Pain based on assumed causal relationships parameterized by directed acyclic graphs. In addition to existing statistical methods such as regression models, Bayesian Networks, and G-estimation, we introduce a carry-over adjusted parametric model (COAPM). Results The results show that all evaluated existing models have a good performance when there is no carry-over and no treatment dependence. When there is carry-over, COAPM yields unbiased and more efficient estimates while all other methods show some bias in the estimation. When there is known treatment dependence, all approaches that are capable to model it yield unbiased estimates. Finally, the efficiency of all methods decreases slightly when there are missing values, and the bias in the estimates can also increase. Conclusions This study presents a systematic evaluation of existing and novel approaches for the statistical analysis of a series of N-of-1 trials. We derive practical recommendations which methods may be best in which scenarios.

Abstract Background Machine learning models promise to support diagnostic predictions, but may not perform well in new settings. Selecting the best model for a new setting without available data is challenging. We aimed to investigate the transportability by calibration and discrimination of prediction models for cognitive impairment in simulated external settings with different distributions of demographic and clinical characteristics. Methods We mapped and quantified relationships between variables associated with cognitive impairment using causal graphs, structural equation models, and data from the ADNI study. These estimates were then used to generate datasets and evaluate prediction models with different sets of predictors. We measured transportability to external settings under guided interventions on age, APOE ε4, and tau-protein, using performance differences between internal and external settings measured by calibration metrics and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Results Calibration differences indicated that models predicting with causes of the outcome were more transportable than those predicting with consequences. AUC differences indicated inconsistent trends of transportability between the different external settings. Models predicting with consequences tended to show higher AUC in the external settings compared to internal settings, while models predicting with parents or all variables showed similar AUC. Conclusions We demonstrated with a practical prediction task example that predicting with causes of the outcome results in better transportability compared to anti-causal predictions when considering calibration differences. We conclude that calibration performance is crucial when assessing model transportability to external settings.

Abstract N-of-1 trials are multi-crossover self-experiments that allow individuals to systematically evaluate the effect of interventions on their personal health goals. Although several tools for N-of-1 trials exist, there is a gap in supporting non-experts in conducting their own user-centric trials. In this study, we present StudyMe, an open-source mobile application that is freely available from https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=health.studyu.me and offers users flexibility and guidance in configuring every component of their trials. We also present research that informed the development of StudyMe, focusing on trial creation. Through an initial survey with 272 participants, we learned that individuals are interested in a variety of personal health aspects and have unique ideas on how to improve them. In an iterative, user-centered development process with intermediate user tests, we developed StudyMe that features an educational part to communicate N-of-1 trial concepts. A final empirical evaluation of StudyMe showed that all participants were able to create their own trials successfully using StudyMe and the app achieved a very good usability rating. Our findings suggest that StudyMe provides a significant step towards enabling individuals to apply a systematic science-oriented approach to personalize health-related interventions and behavior modifications in their everyday lives.

Abstract Background Mass gatherings (MGs) such as music festivals and sports events have been associated with a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. On-site research can foster knowledge of risk factors for infections and improve risk assessments and precautionary measures at future MGs. We tested a web-based participatory disease surveillance tool to detect COVID-19 infections at and after an outdoor MG by collecting self-reported COVID-19 symptoms and tests. Methods We conducted a digital prospective observational cohort study among fully immunized attendees of a sports festival that took place from September 2 to 5, 2021 in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany. Participants used our study app to report demographic data, COVID-19 tests, symptoms, and their contact behavior. This self-reported data was used to define probable and confirmed COVID-19 cases for the full “study period” (08/12/2021 – 10/31/2021) and within the 14-day “surveillance period” during and after the MG, with the highest likelihood of an MG-related COVID-19 outbreak (09/04/2021 – 09/17/2021). Results A total of 2,808 of 9,242 (30.4%) event attendees participated in the study. Within the study period, 776 individual symptoms and 5,255 COVID-19 tests were reported. During the 14-day surveillance period around and after the MG, seven probable and seven PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases were detected. The confirmed cases translated to an estimated seven-day incidence of 125 per 100,000 participants (95% CI [67.7/100,000, 223/100,000]), which was comparable to the average age-matched incidence in Germany during this time. Overall, weekly numbers of COVID-19 cases were fluctuating over the study period, with another increase at the end of the study period. Conclusion COVID-19 cases attributable to the mass gathering were comparable to the Germany-wide age-matched incidence, implicating that our active participatory disease surveillance tool was able to detect MG-related infections. Further studies are needed to evaluate and apply our participatory disease surveillance tool in other mass gathering settings.

Abstract Background In epidemiology, causal inference and prediction modeling methodologies have been historically distinct. Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are used to model a priori causal assumptions and inform variable selection strategies for causal questions. Although tools originally designed for prediction are finding applications in causal inference, the counterpart has remained largely unexplored. The aim of this theoretical and simulation-based study is to assess the potential benefit of using DAGs in clinical risk prediction modeling. Methods We explore how incorporating knowledge about the underlying causal structure can provide insights about the transportability of diagnostic clinical risk prediction models to different settings. We further probe whether causal knowledge can be used to improve predictor selection in clinical risk prediction models. Results A single-predictor model in the causal direction is likely to have better transportability than one in the anticausal direction in some scenarios. We empirically show that the Markov Blanket, the set of variables including the parents, children, and parents of the children of the outcome node in a DAG, is the optimal set of predictors for that outcome. Conclusions Our findings provide a theoretical basis for the intuition that a diagnostic clinical risk prediction model including causes as predictors is likely to be more transportable. Furthermore, using DAGs to identify Markov Blanket variables may be a useful, efficient strategy to select predictors in clinical risk prediction models if strong knowledge of the underlying causal structure exists or can be learned.

Abstract Background 24 h-accelerometry is now used to objectively assess physical activity (PA) in many observational studies like the German National Cohort; however, PA variability, observational time needed to estimate habitual PA, and reliability are unclear. Methods We assessed 24 h-PA of 50 participants using triaxial accelerometers (ActiGraph GT3X+) over 2 weeks. Variability of overall PA and different PA intensities (time in inactivity and in low intensity, moderate, vigorous, and very vigorous PA) between days of assessment or days of the week was quantified using linear mixed-effects and random effects models. We calculated the required number of days to estimate PA, and calculated PA reliability using intraclass correlation coefficients. Results Between- and within-person variance accounted for 34.4–45.5% and 54.5–65.6%, respectively, of total variance in overall PA and PA intensities over the 2 weeks. Overall PA and times in low intensity, moderate, and vigorous PA decreased slightly over the first 3 days of assessment. Overall PA (p = 0.03), time in inactivity (p = 0.003), in low intensity PA (p = 0.001), in moderate PA (p = 0.02), and in vigorous PA (p = 0.04) slightly differed between days of the week, being highest on Wednesday and Friday and lowest on Sunday and Monday, with apparent differences between Saturday and Sunday. In nested random models, the day of the week accounted for