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Abstract Background Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer in women, and despite the introduction of new screening programmes, therapies and monitoring technologies, there is still a need to develop more useful tests for monitoring treatment response and to inform clinical decision making. The purpose of this study was to compare circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and circulating tumour cells (CTCs) with conventional breast cancer blood biomarkers (CA15-3 and alkaline phosphatase (AP)) as predictors of response to treatment and prognosis in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Methods One hundred ninety-four female patients with radiologically confirmed MBC were recruited to the study. Total cfDNA levels were determined by qPCR and compared with CELLSEARCH® CTC counts and CA15-3 and alkaline phosphatase (AP) values. Blood biomarker data were compared with conventional tumour markers, treatment(s) and response as assessed by RECIST and survival. Non-parametric statistical hypothesis tests were used to examine differences, correlation analysis and linear regression to determine correlation and to describe its effects, logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) to estimate the strength of the relationship between biomarkers and clinical outcomes and value normalization against standard deviation to make biomarker values comparable. Kaplan–Meier estimator and Cox regression models were used to assess survival. Univariate and multivariate models were performed where appropriate. Results Multivariate analysis showed that both the amount of total cfDNA (p value = 0.024, HR = 1.199, CI = 1.024–1.405) and the number of CTCs (p value = 0.001, HR = 1.243, CI = 1.088–1.421) are predictors of overall survival (OS), whereas total cfDNA levels is the sole predictor for progression-free survival (PFS) (p value = 0.042, HR = 1.193, CI = 1.007–1.415) and disease response when comparing response to non-response to treatment (HR = 15.917, HR = 12.481 for univariate and multivariate analysis, respectively). Lastly, combined analysis of CTCs and cfDNA is more informative than the combination of two conventional biomarkers (CA15-3 and AP) for prediction of OS. Conclusion Measurement of total cfDNA levels, which is a simpler and less expensive biomarker than CTC counts, is associated with PFS, OS and response in MBC, suggesting potential clinical application of a cheap and simple blood-based test.