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Abstract Background TDP-43 proteinopathies represent a spectrum of neurological disorders, anchored clinically on either end by amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and frontotemporal degeneration (FTD). The ALS–FTD spectrum exhibits a diverse range of clinical presentations with overlapping phenotypes, highlighting its heterogeneity. This study was aimed to use disease progression modeling to identify novel data-driven spatial and temporal subtypes of brain atrophy and its progression in the ALS–FTD spectrum. Methods We used a data-driven procedure to identify 13 anatomic clusters of brain volume for 57 behavioral variant FTD (bvFTD; with either autopsy-confirmed TDP-43 or TDP-43 proteinopathy-associated genetic variants), 103 ALS, and 47 ALS–FTD patients with likely TDP-43. A Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) model was trained to identify subtypes of individuals along the ALS–FTD spectrum with distinct brain atrophy patterns, and we related subtypes and stages to clinical, genetic, and neuropathological features of disease. Results SuStaIn identified three novel subtypes: two disease subtypes with predominant brain atrophy in either prefrontal/somatomotor regions or limbic-related regions, and a normal-appearing group without obvious brain atrophy. The limbic-predominant subtype tended to present with more impaired cognition, higher frequencies of pathogenic variants in TBK1 and TARDBP genes, and a higher proportion of TDP-43 types B, E and C. In contrast, the prefrontal/somatomotor-predominant subtype had higher frequencies of pathogenic variants in C9orf72 and GRN genes and higher proportion of TDP-43 type A. The normal-appearing brain group showed higher frequency of ALS relative to ALS–FTD and bvFTD patients, higher cognitive capacity, higher proportion of lower motor neuron onset, milder motor symptoms, and lower frequencies of genetic pathogenic variants. The overall SuStaIn stages also correlated with evidence for clinical progression including longer disease duration, higher King’s stage, and cognitive decline. Additionally, SuStaIn stages differed across clinical phenotypes, genotypes and types of TDP-43 pathology. Conclusions Our findings suggest distinct neurodegenerative subtypes of disease along the ALS–FTD spectrum that can be identified in vivo, each with distinct brain atrophy, clinical, genetic and pathological patterns.

Abstract Background Cognitive reserve and resilience are terms used to explain interindividual variability in maintenance of cognitive health in response to adverse factors, such as brain pathology in the context of aging or neurodegenerative disorders. There is substantial interest in identifying tractable substrates of resilience to potentially leverage this phenomenon into intervention strategies. One way of operationalizing cognitive resilience that has gained popularity is the residual method: regressing cognition on an adverse factor and using the residual as a measure of resilience. This method is attractive because it provides a statistical approach that is an intuitive match to the reserve/resilience conceptual framework. However, due to statistical properties of the regression equation, the residual approach has qualities that complicate its interpretation as an index of resilience and make it statistically inappropriate in certain circumstances. Methods and results We describe statistical properties of the regression equation to illustrate why the residual is highly correlated with the cognitive score from which it was derived. Using both simulations and real data, we model common applications of the approach by creating a residual score (global cognition residualized for hippocampal volume) in individuals along the AD spectrum. We demonstrate that in most real-life scenarios, the residual measure of cognitive resilience is highly correlated with cognition, and the degree of this correlation depends on the initial relationship between the adverse factor and cognition. Subsequently, any association between this resilience metric and an external variable may actually be driven by cognition, rather than by an operationalized measure of resilience. We then assess several strategies proposed as potential solutions to this problem, such as including both the residual and original cognitive measure in a model. However, we conclude these solutions may be insufficient, and we instead recommend against “pre-regression” strategies altogether in favor of using statistical moderation (e.g., interactions) to quantify resilience. Conclusions Caution should be taken in the use and interpretation of the residual-based method of cognitive resilience. Rather than identifying resilient individuals, we encourage building more complete models of cognition to better identify the specific adverse and protective factors that influence cognitive decline.

Abstract Background Although amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) is generally considered to be a prodromal stage of Alzheimer’s disease, patients with aMCI show heterogeneous patterns of progression. Moreover, there are few studies investigating data-driven cognitive trajectory in aMCI. We therefore classified patients with aMCI based on their cognitive trajectory, measured by clinical dementia rating sum of boxes (CDR-SOB). Then, we compared the clinical and neuroimaging features among groups classified by cognitive trajectory. Methods We retrospectively recruited 278 patients with aMCI who underwent three or more timepoints of neuropsychological testing. They also had magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) including structured three-dimensional volume images. Cortical thickness was measured using surface-based methods. We performed trajectory analyses to classify our aMCI patients according to their progression and investigate their cognitive trajectory using CDR-SOB. Results Trajectory analyses showed that patients with aMCI were divided into three groups: stable (61.8%), slow decliner (31.7%), and fast decliner (6.5%). Changes throughout a mean follow-up duration of 3.7 years in the CDR-SOB for the subgroups of stable/slow/fast decliners were 1.3-, 6.4-, and 12-point increases, respectively. Decliners were older and carried apolipoprotein E4 (APOE4) genotypes more frequently than stable patients. Compared with the stable group, decliners showed a higher frequency of aMCI patients with both visual and verbal memory dysfunction, late stage aMCI, and multiple domain dysfunction. In addition, compared with the stable group, the slow decliners showed cortical thinning predominantly in bilateral parietotemporal areas, while the fast decliners showed cortical thinning predominantly in bilateral frontotemporal areas. Both decliner groups showed worse cognitive function in attention, language, visuospatial, memory, and frontal/executive domains than the stable group. Conclusions Our data-driven trajectory analysis provides new insights into heterogeneous cognitive trajectories of aMCI and further suggests that baseline clinical and neuroimaging profiles might predict aMCI patients with poor prognosis.