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Abstract Background Subchondral bone plays an important role in the pathogenesis of radiographic osteoarthritis (OA). However, the bony changes that occur in hand OA (HOA) are much less understood. This study aimed to describe the association between radiographic HOA and high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) measures of the hand and radius in a population-based sample. Methods A total of 201 participants (mean age 72, 46% female) from the Tasmanian Older Adult Cohort (TASOAC) study underwent HRpQCT assessment of the 2nd distal and proximal interphalangeal (DIP, PIP), 1st carpometacarpal (CMC) joint, and distal radius. Radiographic HOA was assessed at the 2nd DIP, PIP joints, and the 1st CMC joint using the OARSI atlas. Results Proximal osteophyte and joint space narrowing (JSN) scores were consistently more strongly associated with HRpQCT measures compared to the distal site with positive associations for indices of bone size (total and trabecular bone area and cortical perimeter but inconsistent for cortical area) and negative associations for volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD). There was a decrease in trabecular number and bone volume fraction with increasing osteophyte and JSN score as well as an increase in trabecular separation and inhomogeneity. Osteophyte and JSN scores in the hand were not associated with HRpQCT measures at the distal radius. Conclusions This hypothesis generating data suggests that bone size and trabecular disorganization increase with both osteophyte formation and JSN (proximal more than distal), while local vBMD decreases. This process appears to be primarily at the site of pathology rather than nearby unaffected bone.

Abstract Background Knee osteoarthritis is the most prevalent chronic musculoskeletal debilitating disease. Current treatments are only symptomatic, and to improve this, we need a robust prediction model to stratify patients at an early stage according to the risk of joint structure disease progression. Some genetic factors, including single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genes and mitochondrial (mt)DNA haplogroups/clusters, have been linked to this disease. For the first time, we aim to determine, by using machine learning, whether some SNP genes and mtDNA haplogroups/clusters alone or combined could predict early knee osteoarthritis structural progressors. Methods Participants (901) were first classified for the probability of being structural progressors. Genotyping included SNP genes TP63, FTO, GNL3, DUS4L, GDF5, SUPT3H, MCF2L, and TGFA; mtDNA haplogroups H, J, T, Uk, and others; and clusters HV, TJ, KU, and C-others. They were considered for prediction with major risk factors of osteoarthritis, namely, age and body mass index (BMI). Seven supervised machine learning methodologies were evaluated. The support vector machine was used to generate gender-based models. The best input combination was assessed using sensitivity and synergy analyses. Validation was performed using tenfold cross-validation and an external cohort (TASOAC). Results From 277 models, two were defined. Both used age and BMI in addition for the first one of the SNP genes TP63, DUS4L, GDF5, and FTO with an accuracy of 85.0%; the second profits from the association of mtDNA haplogroups and SNP genes FTO and SUPT3H with 82.5% accuracy. The highest impact was associated with the haplogroup H, the presence of CT alleles for rs8044769 at FTO, and the absence of AA for rs10948172 at SUPT3H. Validation accuracy with the cross-validation (about 95%) and the external cohort (90.5%, 85.7%, respectively) was excellent for both models. Conclusions This study introduces a novel source of decision support in precision medicine in which, for the first time, two models were developed consisting of (i) age, BMI, TP63, DUS4L, GDF5, and FTO and (ii) the optimum one as it has one less variable: age, BMI, mtDNA haplogroup, FTO, and SUPT3H. Such a framework is translational and would benefit patients at risk of structural progressive knee osteoarthritis.

Abstract Background There is an unmet need for treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA). Effusion-synovitis is a common inflammatory phenotype of knee OA and predicts knee pain and structural degradation. Anti-inflammatory therapies, such as diacerein, may be effective for this phenotype. While diacerein is recommended for alleviating pain in OA patients, evidence for its effectiveness is inconsistent, possibly because studies have not targeted patients with an inflammatory phenotype. Therefore, we will conduct a multi-centre, randomised, placebo-controlled double-blind trial to determine the effect of diacerein on changes in knee pain and effusion-synovitis over 24 weeks in patients with knee OA and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-defined effusion-synovitis. Methods We will recruit 260 patients with clinical knee OA, significant knee pain, and MRI-detected effusion-synovitis in Hobart, Melbourne, Adelaide, and Perth, Australia. They will be randomly allocated to receive either diacerein (50mg twice daily) or identical placebo for 24 weeks. MRI of the study knee will be performed at screening and after 24 weeks of intervention. The primary outcome is improvement in knee pain at 24 weeks as assessed by a 100-mm visual analogue scale (VAS). Secondary outcomes include improvement in volumetric (ml) and semi-quantitative (Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score, 0–3) measurements of effusion-synovitis using MRI over 24 weeks, and improvement in knee pain (VAS) at 4, 8, 12, 16, and 20 weeks. Intention-to-treat analyses of primary and secondary outcomes will be performed as the primary analyses. Per protocol analyses will be performed as the secondary analyses. Discussion This study will provide high-quality evidence to determine whether diacerein improves pain, changes disease trajectory, and slows disease progression in OA patients with effusion-synovitis. If diacerein proves effective, this has the potential to significantly benefit the substantial proportion (up to 60%) of knee OA patients with an inflammatory phenotype. Trial registration Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry ACTRN12618001656224 . Registered on 08 October 2018.

Abstract Background Skeletal muscles are essential components of the neuromuscular skeletal system that have an integral role in the structure and function of the synovial joints which are often affected by osteoarthritis (OA). The aim of this study was to identify the baseline metabolomic signatures for the longitudinal reduction of muscle strength over 10 years in the well-established community-based Tasmanian Older Adult Cohort (TASOAC). Methods Study participants were 50–79 year old individuals from the TASOAC. Hand grip, knee extension, and leg strength were measured at baseline, 2.6-, 5-, and 10-year follow-up points. Fasting serum samples were collected at 2.6-year follow-up point, and metabolomic profiling was performed using the TMIC Prime Metabolomics Profiling Assay. Generalized linear mixed effects model was used to identify metabolites that were associated with the reduction in muscle strength over 10 years after controlling for age, sex, and BMI. Significance level was defined at α=0.0004 after correction of multiple testing of 129 metabolites with Bonferroni method. Further, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) analysis was performed to explore if genetic factors account for the association between the identified metabolomic markers and the longitudinal reduction of muscle strength over 10 years. Results A total of 409 older adults (50% of them females) were included. The mean age was 60.93±6.50 years, and mean BMI was 27.12±4.18 kg/m2 at baseline. Muscle strength declined by 0.09 psi, 0.02 kg, and 2.57 kg per year for hand grip, knee extension, and leg strength, respectively. Among the 143 metabolites measured, 129 passed the quality checks and were included in the analysis. We found that the elevated blood level of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) was associated with the reduction in hand grip (p=0.0003) and knee extension strength (p=0.008) over 10 years. GWAS analysis found that a SNP rs1125718 adjacent to WISP1gene was associated with ADMA levels (p=4.39*10-8). Further, we found that the increased serum concentration of uric acid was significantly associated with the decline in leg strength over 10 years (p=0.0001). Conclusion Our results demonstrated that elevated serum ADMA and uric acid at baseline were associated with age-dependent muscle strength reduction. They might be novel targets to prevent muscle strength loss over time.

Abstract Background To describe demographic and clinical factors associated with the presence and incidence of depression and explore the temporal relationship between depression and joint symptoms in patients with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA). Methods Three hundred ninety-seven participants were selected from a randomized controlled trial in people with symptomatic knee OA and vitamin D deficiency (age 63.3 ± 7.1 year, 48.6% female). Depression severity and knee joint symptoms were assessed using the patient health questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC), respectively, at baseline and 24 months. Results The presence and incidence of depression was 25.4 and 11.2%, respectively. At baseline, having younger age, a higher body mass index (BMI), greater scores of WOMAC pain (PR: 1.05, 95%CI:1.03, 1.07), dysfunction (PR: 1.02, 95%CI:1.01, 1.02) and stiffness (PR: 1.05, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.09), lower education level, having more than one comorbidity and having two or more painful body sites were significantly associated with a higher presence of depression. Over 24 months, being female, having a higher WOMAC pain (RR: 1.05, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.09) and dysfunction score (RR: 1.02, 95%CI: 1.01, 1.03) at baseline and having two or more painful sites were significantly associated with a higher incidence of depression. In contrast, baseline depression was not associated with changes in knee joint symptoms over 24 months. Conclusion Knee OA risk factors and joint symptoms, along with co-existing multi-site pain are associated with the presence and development of depression. This suggests that managing common OA risk factors and joint symptoms may be important for prevention and treatment depression in patients with knee OA. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01176344 . Anzctr.org.au identifier: ACTRN12610000495022 .

Abstract Background Hip effusion-synovitis may be relevant to osteoarthritis (OA) but is of uncertain etiology. The aim of this study was to describe the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of hip effusion-synovitis with clinical and structural risk factors of OA in older adults. Methods One hundred ninety-six subjects from the Tasmanian Older Adult Cohort (TASOAC) study with a right hip STIR (Short T1 Inversion Recovery) Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) on two occasions were included. Hip effusion-synovitis CSA (cm2) was assessed quantitatively. Hip pain was determined by WOMAC (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis) while hip bone marrow lesions (BMLs), cartilage defects (femoral and/or acetabular) and high cartilage signal were assessed on MRI. Joint space narrowing (0–3) and osteophytes (0–3) were measured on x-ray using Altman’s atlas. Results Of 196 subjects, 32% (n = 63) had no or a small hip effusion-synovitis while 68% (n = 133) subjects had a moderate or large hip effusion-synovitis. Both groups were similar but those with moderate or large hip effusion-synovitis were older, had higher BMI and more hip pain. Cross-sectionally, hip effusion-synovitis at multiple sites was associated with presence of hip pain [Prevalence ratio (PR):1.42 95%CI:1.05,1.93], but not with severity of hip pain. Furthermore, hip effusion-synovitis size associated with femoral defect (βeta:0.32 95%CI:0.08,0.56). Longitudinally, and incident hip cartilage defect (PR: 2.23 95%CI:1.00, 4.97) were associated with an increase in hip effusion-synovitis CSA. Furthermore, independent of presence of effusion-synovitis, hip BMLs predicted incident (PR: 1.62 95%CI: 1.13, 2.34) and worsening of hip cartilage defects (PR: 1.50 95%CI: 1.20, 1.86). While hip cartilage defect predicted incident (PR: 1.11 95%CI: 1.03, 1.20) and worsening hip BMLs (PR: 1.16 95%CI: 1.04, 1.30). Conclusions Hip effusion-synovitis at multiple sites (presumably reflecting extent) may be associated with hip pain. Hip BMLs and hip cartilage defects are co-dependent and predict worsening hip effusion-synovitis, indicating causal pathways between defects, BMLs and effusion-synovitis.

Abstract Background Bisphosphonates are a class of drugs that slow bone loss and are a promising candidate to treat knee osteoarthritis (OA) patients. In a pilot study, we demonstrated that zoledronic acid reduced knee pain and size of subchondral bone marrow lesions (BMLs) over 6 months in knee OA patients with significant knee pain and BMLs. A longer, larger study is required to assess whether decreases in BML size will translate to reductions in cartilage loss over time. We are currently conducting a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial over 24 months that aims to compare the effect of annual infusions of zoledronic acid to placebo on knee structural change (assessed using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)) and knee pain in knee OA patients. Methods Two hundred sixty-four patients with clinical knee OA, significant knee pain and subchondral BMLs present on MRI will be recruited in Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide. They will be randomly allocated to the two arms of the study, receiving an annual identical intravenous infusion of either 100 mL of fluid containing zoledronic acid (5 mg/100 mL) or placebo (0.9% NaCl 100 mL), at baseline and 1 year later. MRI of the study knee will be performed at screening, month 6 and 24. Knee structure, symptoms and function will be assessed using validated methods. The primary outcome is absolute change in tibiofemoral cartilage volume (mm3) over 24 months. Secondary outcomes include improvement in knee pain over 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months and reductions in BML size over 6 and 24 months. The primary analyses will be intention-to-treat analyses of primary and secondary outcomes. Per protocol analyses will be performed as the secondary analyses. Discussion This study will provide high-quality evidence to assess whether zoledronic acid has a novel disease modifying effect in OA by slowing cartilage loss and reducing pain. If zoledronic acid proves effective, it suggests great potential for cost savings through a delay or reduced need for joint replacement surgery, and potential for great improvements in quality of life for OA suffers. Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12613000039785, registered on 14 January 2013.