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In tree species, genomic prediction offers the potential to forecast mature trait values in early growth stages, if robust marker-trait associations can be identified. Here we apply a novel multispecies approach using genotypes from a new genotyping array, based on 20,795 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from three closely related pine species ( Pinus sylvestris , Pinus uncinata and Pinus mugo ), to test for associations with growth and phenology data from a common garden study. Predictive models constructed using significantly associated SNPs were then tested and applied to an independent multisite field trial of P .  sylvestris and the capability to predict trait values was evaluated. One hundred and eighteen SNPs showed significant associations with the traits in the pine species. Common SNPs (MAF > 0.05) associated with bud set were only found in genes putatively involved in growth and development, whereas those associated with growth and budburst were also located in genes putatively involved in response to environment and, to a lesser extent, reproduction. At one of the two independent sites, the model we developed produced highly significant correlations between predicted values and observed height data (YA, height 2020: r  = 0.376, p  < 0.001). Predicted values estimated with our budburst model were weakly but positively correlated with duration of budburst at one of the sites (GS, 2015: r  = 0.204, p  = 0.034; 2018: r  = 0.205, p  = 0.034-0.037) and negatively associated with budburst timing at the other (YA: r  = -0.202, p  = 0.046). Genomic prediction resulted in the selection of sets of trees whose mean height was taller than the average for each site. Our results provide tentative support for the capability of prediction models to forecast trait values in trees, while highlighting the need for caution in applying them to trees grown in different environments., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2022 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Detecting the molecular basis of local adaptation and identifying selective drivers is still challenging in nonmodel species. The use of purely population genetic approaches is limited by some characteristics of genetic systems, such as pleiotropy and polygenic control, and parallel evidence from phenotypic-based experimental comparisons is required. In long-lived organisms, the detection of selective pressures might also be precluded by evolutionary lag times in response to the environment. Here, we used the English yew to showcase an example of a multiscale integrative approach in a nonmodel species with limited plant and genomic resources. We combined information from two independent sources, phenotypes in a common environment and genomic data in natural populations, to investigate the signature of selection. Growth differences among populations in a common environment, and phenological patterns of both shoot elongation and male strobili maturation, were associated with climate clines, providing evidence for local adaptation and guiding us in the selection of populations for genomic analyses. We used information on over 25,000 SNPs from c. 1,200 genes to infer the demographic history and to test for molecular signatures of selection at different levels: SNP, gene, and biological pathway. Our results confirmed an overall demographic history of population decline, but we also found evidence for putative local adaptation at the molecular level. We identified or confirmed several candidate genes for positive and negative selection in forest trees, including the pseudo-response regulator 7 (PRR7), an essential component of the circadian clock in plants. In addition, we successfully tested an approach to detect polygenic adaptation in biological pathways, allowing us to identify the flavonoid biosynthesis pathway as a candidate stress-response pathway that deserves further attention in other plants. Finally, our study contributes to the emerging view that explaining contemporary standing genetic variation requires considering adaptation to past climates, especially for long-lived trees., Competing Interests: None declared., (© 2019 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Spatial heterogeneity in pathogen pressure leads to genetic variation in, and evolution of, disease-related traits among host populations. In contrast, hosts are expected to be highly susceptible to exotic pathogens as there has been no evolution of defence responses. Host response to pathogens can therefore be an indicator of a novel or endemic pathosystem. Currently, the most significant threat to native British Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forests is Dothistroma needle blight (DNB) caused by the foliar pathogen Dothistroma septosporum which is presumed to be exotic. A progeny-provenance trial of 6-year-old Scots pine, comprising eight native provenances each with four families in six blocks, was translocated in April 2013 to a clear-fell site in Galloway adjacent to a DNB-infected forest. Susceptibility to D. septosporum, measured as DNB severity (estimated percentage nongreen current-year needles), was assessed visually over 2 years (2013-2014 and 2014-2015; two assessments per year). There were highly significant differences in susceptibility among provenances but not among families for each annual assessment. Provenance mean susceptibility to D. septosporum was negatively and significantly associated with water-related variables at site of origin, potentially due to the evolution of low susceptibility in the host in response to high historical pathogen pressure.

Disruption of species interactions is a key issue in climate change biology. Interactions involving forest trees may be particularly vulnerable due to evolutionary rate limitations imposed by long generation times. One mitigation strategy for such impacts is Climate matching - the augmentation of local native tree populations by input from nonlocal populations currently experiencing predicted future climates. This strategy is controversial because of potential cascading impacts on locally adapted animal communities. We explored these impacts using abundance data for local native gallwasp herbivores sampled from 20 provenances of sessile oak (Quercus petraea) planted in a common garden trial. We hypothesized that non-native provenances would show (i) declining growth performance with increasing distance between provenance origin and trial site, and (ii) phenological differences to local oaks that increased with latitudinal differences between origin and trial site. Under a local adaptation hypothesis, we predicted declining gallwasp abundance with increasing phenological mismatch between native and climate-matched trees. Both hypotheses for oaks were supported. Provenance explained significant variation in gallwasp abundance, but no gall type showed the relationship between abundance and phenological mismatch predicted by a local adaptation hypothesis. Our results show that climate matching would have complex and variable impacts on oak gall communities.