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Clustering approaches are pivotal to handle the many sequence variants obtained in DNA metabarcoding data sets, and therefore they have become a key step of metabarcoding analysis pipelines. Clustering often relies on a sequence similarity threshold to gather sequences into molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs), each of which ideally represents a homogeneous taxonomic entity (e.g., a species or a genus). However, the choice of the clustering threshold is rarely justified, and its impact on MOTU over-splitting or over-merging even less tested. Here, we evaluated clustering threshold values for several metabarcoding markers under different criteria: limitation of MOTU over-merging, limitation of MOTU over-splitting, and trade-off between over-merging and over-splitting. We extracted sequences from a public database for nine markers, ranging from generalist markers targeting Bacteria or Eukaryota, to more specific markers targeting a class or a subclass (e.g., Insecta, Oligochaeta). Based on the distributions of pairwise sequence similarities within species and within genera, and on the rates of over-splitting and over-merging across different clustering thresholds, we were able to propose threshold values minimizing the risk of over-splitting, that of over-merging, or offering a trade-off between the two risks. For generalist markers, high similarity thresholds (0.96-0.99) are generally appropriate, while more specific markers require lower values (0.85-0.96). These results do not support the use of a fixed clustering threshold. Instead, we advocate careful examination of the most appropriate threshold based on the research objectives, the potential costs of over-splitting and over-merging, and the features of the studied markers., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Site occupancy-detection models (SODMs) are statistical models widely used for biodiversity surveys where imperfect detection of species occurs. For instance, SODMs are increasingly used to analyse environmental DNA (eDNA) data, taking into account the occurrence of both false-positive and false-negative errors. However, species occurrence data are often characterized by spatial and temporal autocorrelation, which might challenge the use of standard SODMs. Here we reviewed the literature of eDNA biodiversity surveys and found that most of studies do not take into account spatial or temporal autocorrelation. We then demonstrated how the analysis of data with spatial or temporal autocorrelation can be improved by using a conditionally autoregressive SODM, and show its application to environmental DNA data. We tested the autoregressive model on both simulated and real data sets, including chronosequences with different degrees of autocorrelation, and a spatial data set on a virtual landscape. Analyses of simulated data showed that autoregressive SODMs perform better than traditional SODMs in the estimation of key parameters such as true-/false-positive rates and show a better discrimination capacity (e.g., higher true skill statistics). The usefulness of autoregressive SODMs was particularly high in data sets with strong autocorrelation. When applied to real eDNA data sets (eDNA from lake sediment cores and freshwater), autoregressive SODM provided more precise estimation of true-/false-positive rates, resulting in more reasonable inference of occupancy states. Our results suggest that analyses of occurrence data, such as many applications of eDNA, can be largely improved by applying conditionally autoregressive specifications to SODMs., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is increasingly used to study the present and past biodiversity. eDNA analyses often rely on amplification of very small quantities or degraded DNA. To avoid missing detection of taxa that are actually present (false negatives), multiple extractions and amplifications of the same samples are often performed. However, the level of replication needed for reliable estimates of the presence/absence patterns remains an unaddressed topic. Furthermore, degraded DNA and PCR/sequencing errors might produce false positives. We used simulations and empirical data to evaluate the level of replication required for accurate detection of targeted taxa in different contexts and to assess the performance of methods used to reduce the risk of false detections. Furthermore, we evaluated whether statistical approaches developed to estimate occupancy in the presence of observational errors can successfully estimate true prevalence, detection probability and false-positive rates. Replications reduced the rate of false negatives; the optimal level of replication was strongly dependent on the detection probability of taxa. Occupancy models successfully estimated true prevalence, detection probability and false-positive rates, but their performance increased with the number of replicates. At least eight PCR replicates should be performed if detection probability is not high, such as in ancient DNA studies. Multiple DNA extractions from the same sample yielded consistent results; in some cases, collecting multiple samples from the same locality allowed detecting more species. The optimal level of replication for accurate species detection strongly varies among studies and could be explicitly estimated to improve the reliability of results., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Heterochrony, the change in the rate or timing of development between ancestors and their descendants, plays a major role in evolution. When heterochrony produces polymorphisms, it offers the possibility to test hypotheses that could explain its success across environments. Amphibians are particularly suitable to exploring these questions because they express complex life cycles (i.e. metamorphosis) that have been disrupted by heterochronic processes (paedomorphosis: retention of larval traits in adults). The large phenotypic variation across populations suggests that more complex processes than expected are operating, but they remain to be investigated through multivariate analyses over a large range of natural populations across time. In this study, we compared the likelihood of multiple potential environmental determinants of heterochrony. We gathered data on the proportion of paedomorphic and metamorphic palmate newts (Lissotriton helveticus) across more than 150 populations during 10 years and used an information-theoretic approach to compare the support of multiple potential processes. Six environmental processes jointly explained the proportion of paedomorphs in populations: predation, water availability, dispersal limitation, aquatic breathing, terrestrial habitat suitability and antipredator refuges. Analyses of variation across space and time supported models based on the advantage of paedomorphosis in favourable aquatic habitats. Paedomorphs were favoured in deep ponds, in conditions favourable to aquatic breathing (high oxygen content), with lack of fish and surrounded by suitable terrestrial habitat. Metamorphs were favoured by banks allowing easy dispersal. These results indicate that heterochrony relies on complex processes involving multiple ecological variables and exemplifies why heterochronic patterns occur in contrasted environments. On the other hand, the fast selection of alternative morphs shows that metamorphosis and paedomorphosis developmental modes could be easily disrupted in natural populations., (© 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.)

1. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) assess relationships between species distribution data and environmental features, to evaluate the environmental suitability (ES) of a given area for a species, by providing a measure of the probability of presence. If the output of SDMs represents the relationships between habitat features and species performance well, SDM results can be related also to other key parameters of populations, including reproductive parameters. To test this hypothesis, we evaluated whether SDM results can be used as a proxy of reproductive parameters (breeding output, territory size) in red-backed shrikes (Lanius collurio). 2. The distribution of 726 shrike territories in Northern Italy was obtained through multiple focused surveys; for a subset of pairs, we also measured territory area and number of fledged juveniles. We used Maximum Entropy modelling to build a SDM on the basis of territory distribution. We used generalized least squares and spatial generalized mixed models to relate territory size and number of fledged juveniles to SDM suitability, while controlling for spatial autocorrelation. 3. Species distribution models predicted shrike distribution very well. Territory size was negatively related to suitability estimated through SDM, while the number of fledglings significantly increased with the suitability of the territory. This was true also when SDM was built using only spatially and temporally independent data. 4. Results show a clear relationship between ES estimated through presence-only SDMs and two key parameters related to species' reproduction, suggesting that suitability estimated by SDM, and habitat quality determining reproduction parameters in our model system, are correlated. Our study shows the potential use of SDMs to infer important fitness parameters; this information can have great importance in management and conservation., (© 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.)