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The aim of the current study was to identify quality indicators of fat (14.50 ± 0.75%) and low-fat (4.79 ± 0.63%) raw ground beef by monitoring changes in physicochemical and microbiological parameters during aerobic refrigerated storage, such as water-holding capacity, pH, thiols, carbonyl compounds, thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS), metmyoglobin, deoxymyoglobin, oxymyoglobin color indices, pseudomonads, Brochothrix thermosphacta, and total viable counts. Meat packaged in air-permeable polyethylene plastic film was stored under controlled isothermal conditions (0, 5, 10, and 15 °C). A population level of pseudomonads equal to 7.0 ± 0.5 log10 colony forming units (CFU)/g was considered as the potential spoilage level. Using principal component analysis, samples were distinguished on the basis of their microbial load. A significant positive correlation between microbial population and carbonyls, metmyoglobin, TBARS, water-holding capacity, and a negative correlation with thiols and color parameters (L* , chroma) were observed. Two different approaches were followed to estimate the quality status of samples: (i) the partial least square (PLS) regression with R2 of 0.93 and root mean square error prediction of 0.44 for pseudomonads, using the above physicochemical characteristics as the dominant input variables, which allowed prediction of the microbiological status of ground beef regardless of time-temperature storage profile and fat content, and (ii) a square-root-type model (adjusted R2 of 0.952) that satisfactorily predicted the growth of spoilage pseudomonads under isothermal and dynamic conditions, regardless of the above physicochemical changes. The above results suggest that depending on the available input data, the two modeling approaches can accurately (and complementarily) assess quality of aerobically stored ground beef. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: Changes in appearance and quality of fat and low-fat raw ground beef are associated with physicochemical alteration and/or microbial growth. The study provides two different modeling approaches that can be integrated in an intelligent interface of the refrigerator having specific colorimetric and/or temperature sensors, to evaluate in a convenience way the quality of stored meat thus reducing domestic waste: the partial least square model was based on physicochemical parameters (particularly chroma, metmyoglobin, and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances), while the square root model was based on the time-temperature conditions during storage.