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Background: India had an estimated 2.9 million tuberculosis cases and 506 thousand deaths in 2021. Novel vaccines effective in adolescents and adults could reduce this burden. M72/AS01 E and BCG-revaccination have recently completed phase IIb trials and estimates of their population-level impact are needed. We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01 E and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies., Methods: We developed an age-stratified compartmental tuberculosis transmission model for India calibrated to country-specific epidemiology. We projected baseline epidemiology to 2050 assuming no-new-vaccine introduction, and M72/AS01 E and BCG-revaccination scenarios over 2025-2050 exploring uncertainty in product characteristics (vaccine efficacy, mechanism of effect, infection status required for vaccine efficacy, duration of protection) and implementation (achieved vaccine coverage and ages targeted). We estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths by each scenario compared to the no-new-vaccine baseline, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives., Results: M72/AS01 E scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios. Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01 E vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective. The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01 E and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year. Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01 E was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease., Conclusions: M72/AS01 E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India. However, there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given the unknowns surrounding the mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy. Greater investment in vaccine development and delivery is needed to resolve these unknowns in vaccine product characteristics., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Background: Despite recent advances through the development pipeline, how novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines might affect rifampicin-resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (RR/MDR-TB) is unknown. We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India., Methods: We constructed a deterministic, compartmental, age-, drug-resistance- and treatment history-stratified dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis. We introduced novel vaccines from 2027, with post- (PSI) or both pre- and post-infection (P&PI) efficacy, conferring 10 years of protection, with 50% efficacy. We measured vaccine cost-effectiveness over 2027-2050 as USD/DALY averted-against 1-times GDP/capita, and two healthcare opportunity cost-based (HCOC), thresholds. We carried out scenario analyses., Results: By 2050, the P&PI vaccine reduced RR/MDR-TB incidence rate by 71% (UI: 69-72) and 72% (UI: 70-74), and the PSI vaccine by 31% (UI: 30-32) and 44% (UI: 42-47) in China and India, respectively. In India, we found both USD 10 P&PI and PSI vaccines cost-effective at the 1-times GDP and upper HCOC thresholds and P&PI vaccines cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold. In China, both vaccines were cost-effective at the 1-times GDP threshold. P&PI vaccine remained cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold with 49% probability and PSI vaccines at the upper HCOC threshold with 21% probability. The P&PI vaccine was predicted to avert 0.9 million (UI: 0.8-1.1) and 1.1 million (UI: 0.9-1.4) second-line therapy regimens in China and India between 2027 and 2050, respectively., Conclusions: Novel TB vaccination is likely to substantially reduce the future burden of RR/MDR-TB, while averting the need for second-line therapy. Vaccination may be cost-effective depending on vaccine characteristics and setting.

Background: Published literature on surgical care in refugees tends to focus on the acute ('emergent') phase of crisis situations. Here we posit that there is a substantial burden of non-acute morbidity amenable to surgical intervention among refugees in the 'chronic' phase of crisis situations. We describe surgery for non-acute conditions undertaken at Mae La Refugee Camp, Thailand over a two year period., Methods: Surgery was performed by a general surgeon in a dedicated room of Mae La Refugee Camp over May 2005 to April 2007 with minimal instruments and staff. We obtained the equivalent costs for these procedures if they were done at the local Thai District General Hospital. We also acquired the list (and costs) of acute surgical referrals to the District General Hospital over September 2006 to December 2007., Results: 855 operations were performed on 847 patients in Mae La Refugee Camp (60.1% sterilizations, 13.3% 'general surgery', 5.6% 'gynaecological surgery', 17.4% 'mass excisions', 3.5% 'other'). These procedures were worth 2,207,500 THB (75,683.33 USD) at costs quoted by the District General Hospital. Total cost encountered for these operations (including staff costs, consumables, anaesthesia and capital costs such as construction) equaled 1,280,000 THB (42,666 USD). Pertaining to acute surgical referrals to District General hospital: we estimate that 356,411.96 THB (11,880.40 USD) worth of operations over 14 months were potentially preventable if these cases had been operated at an earlier, non-acute state in Mae La Refugee Camp., Conclusions: A considerable burden of non-acute surgical morbidity exists in 'chronic' refugee situations. An in-house general surgical service is found to be cost-effective in relieving some of this burden and should be considered by policy makers as a viable intervention.