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INTRODUCTION In Malawi, HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women are offered lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) regardless of CD4 count or clinical stage (Option B+). Their HIV-exposed children are enrolled in the national prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programme, but many are lost to follow-up. We estimated the cumulative incidence of vertical HIV transmission, taking loss to follow-up into account. METHODS We abstracted data from HIV-exposed children enrolled into care between September 2011 and June 2014 from patient records at 21 health facilities in central and southern Malawi. We used competing risk models to estimate the probability of loss to follow-up, death, ART initiation and discharge, and used pooled logistic regression and inverse probability of censoring weighting to estimate the vertical HIV transmission risk. RESULTS A total of 11,285 children were included; 9285 (82%) were born to women who initiated ART during pregnancy. At age 30 months, an estimated 57.9% (95% CI 56.6-59.2) of children were lost to follow-up, 0.8% (0.6-1.0) had died, 2.6% (2.3-3.0) initiated ART, 36.5% (35.2-37.9) were discharged HIV-negative and 2.2% (1.5-2.8) continued follow-up. We estimated that 5.3% (95% CI 4.7-5.9) of the children who enrolled were HIV-infected by the age of 30 months, but only about half of these children (2.6%; 95% CI 2.3-2.9) were diagnosed. CONCLUSIONS Confirmed mother-to-child transmission rates were low, but due to poor retention only about half of HIV-infected children were diagnosed. Tracing of children lost to follow-up and HIV testing in outpatient clinics should be scaled up to ensure that all HIV-positive children have access to early ART.

BACKGROUND Caesarean section (CS) is not recommended for PMTCT in Malawi HIV Guidelines, contrary to most high-income countries where CS is indicated if viral suppression is sub-optimal pre-delivery. We describe patterns of CS in HIV-infected and uninfected women in Malawi and explored if insight into the use of Elective CS (ECS) for PMTCT could be obtained. METHODS We used routinely collected data from individual medical records from 17 large health facilities in the central and southern regions of Malawi, from January 2010 to December 2013. We included data from maternity registers from all HIV-positive women, and randomly selected around every fourth woman with negative or unknown HIV status. We used multivariable logistic regressions and cluster-based robust standard errors to examine independent associations of patient- and facility characteristics with CS and ECS. RESULTS We included 62,033 women in the analysis. The weighted percentage of women who had a spontaneous vaginal delivery was 80.0% (CI 95% 79.5-80.4%); 2.4% (95% CI 2.3-2.6%) had a vacuum extraction; 2.3% (95% CI 2.2-2.5%) had a vaginal breech delivery; 14.0% (95% CI 13.6-14.4%) had a CS while for 1.3% (95% CI 1.2-1.4%) the mode of delivery was not recorded. Prevalence of CS without recorded medical or obstetric indication (ECS) was 5.1%, (n = 3152). Presence of maternal and infant complications and older age were independently associated with CS delivery. HIV-positive women were less likely to have ECS than HIV negative women (aOR 0.65; 95%-CI 0.57-0.74). Among HIV-positive women, those on antiretrovirals (ARV's) for ≥4 weeks prior to delivery were less likely to have ECS than HIV-positive women who had not received ARVs during pregnancy (aOR 0.81; 95% CI 0.68-0.96). CONCLUSIONS The pattern of CS's in Malawi is largely determined by maternal and infant complications. Positive HIV status was negatively associated with CS delivery, possibly because health care workers were concerned about the risk of occupational HIV transmission and the known increased risk of post-operative complications. Our results leave open the possibility that CS is practiced to prevent MTCT given that ECS was more common among women at high risk of MTCT due to no or short exposure to ARV's.