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Background: The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity.Methods: Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated.Results: The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions.Conclusions: Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Mediterranean region is particularly vulnerable to the effect of summer temperature.Within the CIRCE project this time-series study aims to quantify for the first time the effect of summer temperature in Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities and compared it with European cities around the Mediterranean basin, evaluating city characteristics that explain between-city heterogeneity., Methods: The city-specific effect of maximum apparent temperature (Tappmax) was assessed by Generalized Estimation Equations, assuming a linear threshold model. Then, city-specific estimates were included in a random effect meta-regression analysis to investigate the effect modification by several city characteristics., Results: Heterogeneity in the temperature-mortality relationship was observed among cities. Thresholds recorded higher values in the warmest cities of Tunis (35.5°C) and Tel-Aviv (32.8°C) while the effect of Tappmax above threshold was greater in the European cities. In Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities a higher effect was observed among younger age groups (0-14 in Tunis and 15-64 in Tel-Aviv and Istanbul) in contrast with the European cities where the elderly population was more vulnerable. Climate conditions explained most of the observed heterogeneity and among socio-demographic and economic characteristics only health expenditure and unemployment rate were identified as effect modifiers., Conclusions: The high vulnerability observed in the young populations in Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities represent a major public health problem. Considering the large political and economic changes occurring in this region as well future temperature increase due to climate change, it is important to strengthen research and public health efforts in these Mediterranean countries.

Background: This multicenter study is aimed at estimating changes in the effect of high temperatures on elderly mortality before and after the 2003 heat waves and following the introduction of heat prevention activities., Methods: A total of sixteen cities were included in the study. City-specific relationships between maximum apparent temperature (MAT) and elderly daily mortality before (1998-2002) and after (2006-2010) intervention were modelled through non-linear distributed lag models and estimates were combined using a random effect meta-analysis. We estimated the percentage change in daily mortality for 3°C variations in MAT above the 25th percentile of the June city-specific 1998-2002 distribution. A time-varying analysis was carried out to describe intra-seasonal variations in the two periods., Results: We observed a reduction in high temperatures' effect post intervention; the greatest reduction was for increases in temperature from 9°C to 12°C above the 25th percentile, with a decrease from +36.7% to +13.3%. A weak effect was observed for temperatures up to 3°C above the 25th percentile only after. Changes were month-specific with a reduction in August and an increase in May, June and September in 2006-2010., Conclusions: A change in the temperature-mortality relationship was observed, attributable to variations in temperature distributions during summer and to the introduction of adaptation measures. The reduction in the effect of high temperature suggests that prevention programs can mitigate the impact. An effect of lower temperature remains, indicating a relevant impact of temperature at the beginning of summer when the population has not yet adapted and intervention activities are not fully operational.