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Objectives: Post-myocardial infarction ventricular septal rupture (PIVSR) is one of the most severe types of mechanical complications after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) with high mortality and poor prognosis. The risk factors for short-term mortality of patients with PIVSR may be not widely recognized. We aimed to assess the prevalence and short-term mortality risk predictors of PIVSR. Methods: A total of 62 patients with a diagnosis of PIVSR were admitted to three top general public hospitals in Chongqing, China. Clinical characteristics and short-term outcomes of patients with PIVSR were compared. Predictors of PIVSR were assessed using logistic regression analysis. Results: Mean age was 70.7 ± 10.7 years (38.7% female). The overall in-hospital mortality of PIVSR remained high (71%). Most (47/62) of the patients were in Killip class III or IV at the time of rupture diagnosis. Logistic regression analysis revealed that white blood cell count (WBC, OR 1.619, 95% CI 1.172–2.237, P = 0.005), cardiogenic shock (OR 47.706, 95%CI 2.859-795.945, P = 0.007) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, OR 0.803, 95%CI 0.689–0.936, P = 0.009) were independent risk factors of in-hospital early mortality. The nomogram developed for predicting the risk of short-term mortality showed a robust discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.956 (95%CI 0.912-1.000). Conclusion: The short-term mortality of PIVSR remained high. WBC, cardiogenic shock, and LVEF were the independent predictive factors of short-term mortality. Our nomogram might be used to predict early mortality of patients with PIVSR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Hip arthroplasty is a common orthopaedic procedure worldwide. There is an ongoing debate related to the fixation and anaesthesia impact on the 30-day mortality, particularly in the aging population with higher American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA) Physical-Status. Aim: To study the 30-day all-cause mortality in patients undergoing primary hip arthroplasty, with regards to the impact of age, ASA-class, anaesthesia techniques, indication for surgery and fixation techniques. Materials and methods: Perioperative data for primary hip arthroplasty procedures for osteoarthritis and hip fractures registered in the Swedish Perioperative Registry (SPOR) between 2013 and June 2022 were collected. Binary logistic regressions were performed to assess the impact of age, ASA-class, anaesthetic technique, indication for surgery and fixation on odds ratio for 30-day mortality in Sweden. Results: In total, 79,114 patients, 49,565 with osteoarthritis and 29,549 with hip fractures were included in the main study cohort. Mortality was significantly higher among hip fracture patients compared with osteoarthritis, cumulative 8.2% versus 0.1% at 30-days respectively (p < 0.001). Age above 80 years (OR3.7), ASA 3–5 (OR3.3) and surgery for hip fracture (OR 21.5) were associated with significantly higher odds ratio, while hybrid fixation was associated with a significantly lower odds ratio (OR0.4) of 30-day mortality. In the same model, for the subgroups of osteoarthritis and hip fracture, only age (OR 3.7) and ASA-class (OR 3.3) had significant impact, increasing the odds ratio for 30-day mortality. Hemi arthroplasty was commonly used among the hip fracture patients 20.453 (69.2%), and associated with a significantly higher odds ratio for all-cause 30-day mortality as compared to total hip arthroplasty when adjusting for age and ASA-class and fixation 2.3 (95%CI 1.9–2.3, p < 0.001). Conclusions: All-cause 30-day mortality associated with arthroplasty differed significantly between the two cohorts, hip fracture, and osteoarthritis (8.2% and 0.1% respectively) and mortality expectedly increased with age and higher ASA-class. Anaesthetic method and cement-fixation did not impact the odds ratio for all-cause 30-day mortality after adjustment for age and ASA-class. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Metastatic rectal cancer is an incurable malignancy, which is prone to early mortality. We aimed to establish nomograms for predicting the risk of early mortality in patients with metastatic rectal cancer. Methods: In this study, clinical data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.We utilized X-tile software to determine the optimal cut-off points of age and tumor size in diagnosis. Significant independent risk factors for all-cause and cancer-specific early mortality were determined by the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, then we construct two practical nomograms. In order to assess the predictive performance of nomograms, we performed calibration plots, time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC). Results: A total of 2570 metastatic rectal cancer patients were included in the study. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that age at diagnosis, CEA level, tumor size, surgical intervention, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and metastases to bone, brain, liver, and lung were independently associated with early mortality of metastatic rectal cancer patients in the training cohort. The area under the curve (AUC) values of nomograms for all-cause and cancer-specific early mortality were all higher than 0.700. Calibration curves indicated that the nomograms accurately predicted early mortality and exhibited excellent discrimination. DCA and CIC showed moderately positive net benefits. Conclusions: This study successfully generated applicable nomograms that predicted the high-risk early mortality of metastatic rectal cancer patients, which can assist clinicians in tailoring more effective treatment regimens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is the main type of adult leukemia, and 60-day mortality is a vital clinical problem that doctors have to face at the begin with treatment. Studies on the association between serum albumin and 60-day mortality from AML (non-APL) are limited.Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, ALB was measured after admission in all patients diagnosed with primary AML from Affiliated Ganzhou Hospital of Nanchang University between January 2013 and May 2021. The outcome was all-cause, 60-day mortality. Multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to calculate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI).Results: This study included 394 primary AML patients. The overall 60-day mortality was 28.9% (114/394); it was 43.1% (56/130), 27.5% (36/131), and 16.5% (22/133) for ALB quantile1 (Q, < 34.5 g/L), quantile 2 (Q2, 34.5-38.5 g/L), and quantile 3 (Q3, ≥ 38.6 g/L), respectively (P = 0.001). After adjusting for potential confounders, we found an association between a 6% decrease in 60-day mortality rate and a 1 g/L increase in ALB level (HR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89-0.99, P = 0.015), which was associated with 38 and 70% decreases in 60-day mortality rates in Q2 (HR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.30-0.86, P = 0.012) and Q3 (HR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.2 5-0.90, P = 0.022), respectively, compared with that in Q1. Similar results were obtained after subgrouping based on an ALB level of 35 g/L (HR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.34-0.88, P = 0.013).Conclusions: Serum albumin was significantly associated with 60-day mortality of primary AML, which has important clinical significance. Further investigation is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Adult emergency department mortality remains high in resource-limited lower-income countries. The majority of deaths occur within the first 24 h of presentation to the emergency department. Many of these mortality's can be alleviated with appropriate interventions. This study was aimed to assess the magnitude, cause, and factors related to very early mortality in patients presented to the emergency department of Tikur Anbesa Specialized Tertiary Hospital, Ethiopia from March 2018 to 2020.Methods: This is a cross-sectional retrospective chart review. Retrospective data were collected from the records of all patients who died within 72 h of emergency department presentation from March 2018 to 2020. Data entered using Epi data 4.2.1 and analyzed using SPSS Version 23. Using the Chi-square test, binary and multiple logistic regression analysis were carried out to measure the association of variables of interest and very early emergency mortality. P-value < 0.05, odds ratio with 95% CI were used to identify the significant factors.Results: Between March 2018 to 2020, 30,086 patients visited the ED and 604 patients died within 72 h of presentation (274 died within 24 h and 232 within > 24-72 h). Shock (36.7%) and road traffic accidents (3.16%) were the major causes of death. Triage category red AOR 0.23 95% CI 0.1-0.55 and duration of illness 4-24 h AOR 0.47 95% CI 0.26-0.87 were significantly associated with decreased very early emergency department mortality. Meanwhile, co-morbid disease HIV AIDS AOR 2.72 95% CI 1.01-7.30 and residence Addis Ababa AOR 2.78 95% CI 1.36-5.68 and Oromia AOR 3.23 95% CI 1.58-6.54 were found significantly associated with increased very early emergency department mortality.Conclusions and Recommendations: The mortality burden of a road traffic accident and shock in the TASTH is significant and the magnitude of ED mortality differs between these groups. Residence Addis Ababa and Oromia, triage category red, co-morbid disease HIV AIDS, and duration of symptom 4-24 h were significantly associated with early emergency department mortality. Early detection and intervention are required to minimize emergency mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the introduction of novel agents improved the survival outcomes in patients with multiple myeloma (MM), some patients died within one year (early mortality, EM) following diagnosis. In this study, we evaluated the EM rate, and investigated the risk factors associated with EM in MM patients.Methods: Retrospective data from 542 patients who were initially treated with a novel agent-containing regimen were analyzed.Results: The median overall survival (OS) for the entire cohort was 56.5 months. The median OS in the 2010-2014 group was longer than in the 2002-2009 group (59.2 months vs. 49.1 months, P = 0.054). The rate of EM was 13.8 %, and the most common causes of EM were infection and comorbidity. In multivariate analysis, the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI ≥ 4), low body mass index (BMI < 20 kg/m(2)), thrombocytopenia, and renal failure were significantly associated with EM. The presence of none, 1, or ≥ 2 factors was associated with a 4.1 %, 14.3 %, or 27.4 % risk of EM (P < 0.001), respectively. The median OS times were significantly different depending on the presence of factors associated with EM (P < 0.001).Conclusions: In conclusion, the ACCI (≥ 4), low BMI, thrombocytopenia and renal failure were strong predictors for EM in the novel agent era. The results of this study will help to identify patients at high risk for EM, and may be helpful to more accurately predict prognosis of MM patients in the novel-agent era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Trauma is one of the top threats to population health globally. Several prediction models have been developed to supplement clinical judgment in trauma care. Whereas most models have been developed in high-income countries the majority of trauma deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. Almost 20 % of all global trauma deaths occur in India alone. The aim of this study was to validate a basic clinical prediction model for use in urban Indian university hospitals, and to compare it with existing models for use in early trauma care.Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study in three hospitals across urban India. The model we aimed to validate included systolic blood pressure and Glasgow coma scale. We compared this model with three additional models, which all have been designed for use in bedside trauma care, and two single variable models based on systolic blood pressure and Glasgow coma scale respectively. The outcome was early mortality, defined as death within 24 h from the time when vital signs were first measured. We compared the models in terms of discrimination, calibration, and potential clinical consequences using decision curve analysis. Multiple imputation was used to handle missing data. Performance measures are reported using their median and inter-quartile range (IQR) across imputed datasets.Results: We analysed 4440 patients, out of which 1629 were used as an updating sample and 2811 as a validation sample. We found no evidence that the basic model that included only systolic blood pressure and Glasgow coma scale had worse discrimination or potential clinical consequences compared to the other models. A model that also included heart had better calibration. For the model with systolic blood pressure and Glasgow coma scale the discrimination in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.846 (IQR 0.841-0.849). Calibration measured by estimating a calibration slope was 1.183 (IQR 1.168-1.202). Decision curve analysis revealed that using this model could potentially result in 45 fewer unnecessary surveys per 100 patients.Conclusions: A basic clinical prediction model with only two parameters may prove to be a feasible alternative to more complex models in contexts such as the Indian public university hospitals studied here. We present a colour-coded chart to further simplify the decision making in early trauma care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite the dramatically improved survival due to combination antiretroviral therapies (cART), life expectancy of people with HIV/AIDS remains lower than that of the general population. This study aimed to estimate, at a population level, the survival experience of Italian people with AIDS (PWA) and to quantify the prognostic role of selected factors at diagnosis in the risk of early mortality (i.e., within six months from AIDS diagnosis). Methods: A population-based, retrospective-cohort study was conducted among Italian PWA diagnosed between 1999 and 2009 and recorded in the national AIDS registry. The vital status, up to December 2010, of 14,552 PWA was ascertained through a record linkage procedure with the Italian mortality database. Survival probabilities were estimated through Kaplan-Meier method. To identify risk factors for early mortality from any cause, odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for major confounders, were computed using multivariate logistic regression models. Results: Of the 5,706 deaths registered among the 14,552 PWA included in the study, 2,757 (18.9 %) occurred within six months from AIDS diagnosis. The probability of surviving six months increased from 81.2 % in PWA diagnosed in 1999-2000 to 82.9 % in 2009, while the 5-year survival augmented from 60.7 % in PWA diagnosed in 1999-2000 to 65.4 % for PWA diagnosed in 2005-2006. Elevated risks of early mortality were associated to older age (OR = 5.28; 95 % CI: 4.41-6.32 for age ≥60 vs. <35 years), injecting drug use (OR = 1.71; 95 % CI: 1.53-1.91 vs. heterosexual intercourse), and CD4 count <50 cells/mm³ at AIDS diagnosis (OR = 1.87, 95 % CI: 1.55-2.27 vs. ≥350). Elevated ORs for early mortality also emerged for PWA diagnosed with primary brain lymphoma (OR= 11.66, 95 % CI: 7.32-18.57), or progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (OR = 4.21, 95 % CI: 3.37-5.27). Conclusions: Our study documented, among Italian PWA, the high -- though slightly decreasing - frequency of early mortality in the full cART era. These findings indicate the need for enduring and ameliorating preventive actions aimed at timely HIV testing among all individuals at risk for HIV infection and/or those who present diseases known to be related with HIV infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Liver resection had been regarded as a standard treatment for primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, early mortality and recurrence after surgery were still of major concern. RAM (Risk Assessment for early Mortality) scoring system is a newly developed tool for assessing early mortality after hepatectomy for HCC. In this study, we compared RAM scoring system with ALBI and MELD scores for their capability of predicting short-term outcome., Methods: We retrospectively reviewed patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who were treated with hepatectomy at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital between 1986 and 2015. Their clinical characteristics and perioperative variables were collected. We applied RAM, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring systems to predict early mortality and early recurrence in HCC patients after surgery. We investigated the discriminative power of each scoring system by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC)., Results: A total of 1935 patients (78% male) who underwent liver resection for HCC were included in this study. The median follow-up period was 41.9 months. One hundred and forty-nine patients (7.7%) died within 6 months after hepatectomy (early mortality). All the three scoring systems were effective predictor for early mortality, with higher score indicating higher risk of early mortality (AUC of RAM = 0.723, p < 0.001; AUC of ALBI = 0.682, p < 0.001; AUC of MELD = 0.590, p = 0.002). Cox regression multivariate analysis demonstrated that the RAM class was the most significant independent predictor of early mortality after surgery, while MELD grade failed to discriminatively predict early mortality. In addition to early mortality, the RAM score was also predictive of early recurrence in HCC after surgery., Conclusions: This study demonstrated that RAM score is an effective and user-friendly bedside scoring system to predict early mortality and early recurrence after hepatectomy for HCC. In addition, the predictive capability of RAM score is superior to ALBI and MELD scores. Further study is warranted to validate our findings.

Background: Although the introduction of novel agents improved the survival outcomes in patients with multiple myeloma (MM), some patients died within one year (early mortality, EM) following diagnosis. In this study, we evaluated the EM rate, and investigated the risk factors associated with EM in MM patients., Methods: Retrospective data from 542 patients who were initially treated with a novel agent-containing regimen were analyzed., Results: The median overall survival (OS) for the entire cohort was 56.5 months. The median OS in the 2010-2014 group was longer than in the 2002-2009 group (59.2 months vs. 49.1 months, P = 0.054). The rate of EM was 13.8 %, and the most common causes of EM were infection and comorbidity. In multivariate analysis, the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI ≥ 4), low body mass index (BMI < 20 kg/m(2)), thrombocytopenia, and renal failure were significantly associated with EM. The presence of none, 1, or ≥ 2 factors was associated with a 4.1 %, 14.3 %, or 27.4 % risk of EM (P < 0.001), respectively. The median OS times were significantly different depending on the presence of factors associated with EM (P < 0.001)., Conclusions: In conclusion, the ACCI (≥ 4), low BMI, thrombocytopenia and renal failure were strong predictors for EM in the novel agent era. The results of this study will help to identify patients at high risk for EM, and may be helpful to more accurately predict prognosis of MM patients in the novel-agent era.