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Background: In patients with type-2 diabetes receiving oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs), the addition of insulin is frequently required to achieve sufficient control over blood glucose levels. It is, however, difficult to predict if, when and in which patients insulin therapy will be needed. We aimed to identify patient related variables associated with the addition of basal insulin to oral therapy resulting in a basal supported oral therapy (BOT). Methods: DIVE (DIabetes Versorgungs-Evaluation) is a prospective, observational, multi-centre diabetes registry established in Germany in 2011. For the present explorative analysis, 31,008 patients with type-2 diabetes prescribed at least one OAD were included. Patients who had previously received insulin and those over 90 years old were excluded. The event of interest was defined as the initiation of BOT during the observational period. Cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models based on a competing risk framework were applied for risk quantification. Results: Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios demonstrated that longer diabetes duration, higher BMI, poorer glycaemic control, documentation of any micro- or macrovascular comorbidity, the presence of concomitant non-antidiabetic pharmacotherapies, and greater numbers of prescribed OADs increased the likelihood of BOT initiation. On the other hand BOT initiation was less likely in patients with older age and female gender. Analysing the likelihood of OAD termination without initiation of BOT provided supportive evidence for the variables predictive of BOT initiation. Discussion: Analysis of the DIVE registry has resulted in the identification of a number of factors that may be predictive for the initiation of BOT for type-2 diabetes patients initially prescribed one or more OADs. Poor glycaemic control, the presence of vascular comorbidities and concomitant medications, and a greater number of OADs were all detected to increase the risk of a switch to BOT. Female gender and younger age showed protective properties. Conclusions: The close monitoring of patients displaying these characteristics may help to identify individuals who might benefit from early addition of insulin therapy to their oral treatment regimen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Competing risks methodology allows for an event-specific analysis of the single components of composite time-to-event endpoints. A key feature of competing risks is that there are as many hazards as there are competing risks. This is not always well accounted for in the applied literature. Methods: We advocate a simulation point of view for understanding competing risks. The hazards are envisaged as momentary event forces. They jointly determine the event time. Their relative magnitude determines the event type. 'Empirical simulations' using data from a recent study on cardiovascular events in diabetes patients illustrate subsequent interpretation. The method avoids concerns on identifiability and plausibility known from the latent failure time approach. Results: The 'empirical simulations' served as a proof of concept. Additionally manipulating baseline hazards and treatment effects illustrated both scenarios that require greater care for interpretation and how the simulation point of view aids the interpretation. The simulation algorithm applied to real data also provides for a general tool for study planning. Conclusions: There are as many hazards as there are competing risks. All of them should be analysed. This includes estimation of baseline hazards. Study planning must equally account for these aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]