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Background: Operating rooms (ORs) are one of the costliest units in a hospital, therefore the cumulative consequences of any kind of inefficiency in OR management lead to a significant loss of revenue for the hospital, staff dissatisfaction, and patient care disruption. One of the possible solutions to improving OR efficiency is knowing a reliable estimate of the duration of operations. The literature suggests that the current methods used in hospitals, e.g., a surgeon's estimate for the given surgery or taking the average of only five previous records of the same procedure, have room for improvement. Methods: We used over 4 years of elective surgery records (n = 52,171) from one of the major metropolitan hospitals in Australia. We developed robust Machine Learning (ML) approaches to provide a more accurate prediction of operation duration, especially in the absence of surgeon's estimation. Individual patient characteristics and historic surgery information attributed to medical records were used to train predictive models. A wide range of algorithms such as Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Random Forest (RF) were tested for predicting operation duration. Results: The results show that the XGBoost model provided statistically significantly less error than other compared ML models. The XGBoost model also reduced the total absolute error by 6854 min (i.e., about 114 h) compared to the current hospital methods. Conclusion: The results indicate the potential of using ML methods for reaching a more accurate estimation of operation duration compared to current methods used in the hospital. In addition, using a set of realistic features in the ML models that are available at the point of OR scheduling enabled the potential deployment of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Thirty-day readmission is an increasingly important problem for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients. The aim of this study was to develop a risk prediction model using machine learning and clinical insight for 30-day readmission in primary TKA patients. Method: Data used to train and internally validate a multivariable predictive model were obtained from a single tertiary referral centre for TKA located in Victoria, Australia. Hospital administrative data and clinical registry data were utilised, and predictors were selected through systematic review and subsequent consultation with clinicians caring for TKA patients. Logistic regression and random forest models were compared to one another. Calibration was evaluated by visual inspection of calibration curves and calculation of the integrated calibration index (ICI). Discriminative performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Results: The models developed in this study demonstrated adequate calibration for use in the clinical setting, despite having poor discriminative performance. The best-calibrated readmission prediction model was a logistic regression model trained on administrative data using risk factors identified from systematic review and meta-analysis, which are available at the initial consultation (ICI = 0.012, AUC-ROC = 0.589). Models developed to predict complications associated with readmission also had reasonable calibration (ICI = 0.012, AUC-ROC = 0.658). Conclusion: Discriminative performance of the prediction models was poor, although machine learning provided a slight improvement. The models were reasonably well calibrated, meaning they provide accurate patient-specific probabilities of these outcomes. This information can be used in shared clinical decision-making for discharge planning and post-discharge follow up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Implementation research has delved into barriers to implementing change and interventions for the implementation of innovation in practice. There remains a gap, however, that fails to connect implementation barriers to the most effective implementation strategies and provide a more tailored approach during implementation. This study aimed to explore barriers for the implementation of professional services in community pharmacies and to predict the effectiveness of facilitation strategies to overcome implementation barriers using machine learning techniques.Methods: Six change facilitators facilitated a 2-year change programme aimed at implementing professional services across community pharmacies in Australia. A mixed methods approach was used where barriers were identified by change facilitators during the implementation study. Change facilitators trialled and recorded tailored facilitation strategies delivered to overcome identified barriers. Barriers were coded according to implementation factors derived from the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research and the Theoretical Domains Framework. Tailored facilitation strategies were coded into 16 facilitation categories. To predict the effectiveness of these strategies, data mining with random forest was used to provide the highest level of accuracy. A predictive resolution percentage was established for each implementation strategy in relation to the barriers that were resolved by that particular strategy.Results: During the 2-year programme, 1131 barriers and facilitation strategies were recorded by change facilitators. The most frequently identified barriers were a 'lack of ability to plan for change', 'lack of internal supporters for the change', 'lack of knowledge and experience', 'lack of monitoring and feedback', 'lack of individual alignment with the change', 'undefined change objectives', 'lack of objective feedback' and 'lack of time'. The random forest algorithm used was able to provide 96.9% prediction accuracy. The strategy category with the highest predicted resolution rate across the most number of implementation barriers was 'to empower stakeholders to develop objectives and solve problems'.Conclusions: Results from this study have provided a better understanding of implementation barriers in community pharmacy and how data-driven approaches can be used to predict the effectiveness of facilitation strategies to overcome implementation barriers. Tailored facilitation strategies such as these can increase the rate of real-time implementation of innovations in healthcare, leading to an industry that can confidently and efficiently adapt to continuous change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]