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Background: To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed., Methods: We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012-2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022-2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels., Results: We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70-90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70-90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection., Conclusions: These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is the main method for laboratory diagnosis of norovirus-associated infectious intestinal disease (IID). However, up to 16% of healthy individuals in the community, with no recent history of IID, may be RT-PCR positive; so it is unclear whether norovirus is actually the cause of illness in an IID case when they are RT-PCR positive. It is important to identify the pathogen causing illness in sporadic IID cases, for clinical management and for community based incidence studies. The aim of this study was to investigate how faecal viral load can be used to determine when norovirus is the most likely cause of illness in an IID case., Methods: Real-time RT-PCR was used to determine the viral load in faecal specimens collected from 589 IID cases and 159 healthy controls, who were infected with genogroup II noroviruses. Cycle threshold (Ct) values from the real-time RT-PCR were used as a proxy measure of viral load. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to identify a cut-off in viral load for attributing illness to norovirus in IID cases., Results: One hundred and sixty-nine IID cases and 159 controls met the inclusion criteria for the ROC analysis. The optimal Ct value cut-off for attributing IID to norovirus was 31. The same cut-off was selected when using healthy controls, or IID cases who were positive by culture for bacterial pathogens, as the reference negative group. This alternative reference negative group can be identified amongst specimens routinely received in clinical virology laboratories., Conclusion: We demonstrated that ROC analysis can be used to select a cut-off for a norovirus real time RT-PCR assay, to aid clinical interpretation and diagnose when norovirus is the cause of IID. Specimens routinely received for diagnosis in clinical virology laboratories can be used to select an appropriate cut-off. Individual laboratories can use this method to define in-house cut-offs for their assays, to provide the best possible diagnostic service to clinicians and public health workers. Other clinical and epidemiological information should also be considered for patients with Ct values close to the cut-off, for the most accurate diagnosis of IID aetiology.

Background: Noroviruses are highly infectious pathogens that cause gastroenteritis in the community and in semi-closed institutions such as hospitals. During outbreaks, multiple units within a hospital are often affected, and a major question for control programs is: are the affected units part of the same outbreak or are they unrelated transmission events? In practice, investigators often assume a transmission link based on epidemiological observations, rather than a systematic approach to tracing transmission.Here, we present a combined molecular and statistical method for assessing:1) whether observed clusters provide evidence of local transmission and2) the probability that anecdotally|linked outbreaks truly shared a transmission event., Methods: 76 healthcare associated outbreaks were observed in an active and prospective surveillance scheme of 15 hospitals in the county of Avon, England from April 2002 to March 2003. Viral RNA from 64 out of 76 specimens from distinct outbreaks was amplified by reverse transcription-PCR and was sequenced in the polymerase (ORF 1) and capsid (ORF 2) regions. The genetic diversity, at the nucleotide level, was analysed in relation to the epidemiological patterns., Results: Two out of four genetic and epidemiological clusters of outbreaks were unlikely to have occurred by chance alone, thus suggesting local transmission. There was anecdotal epidemiological evidence of a transmission link among 5 outbreaks pairs. By combining this epidemiological observation with viral sequence data, the evidence of a link remained convincing in 3 of these pairs. These results are sensitive to prior beliefs of the strength of epidemiological evidence especially when the outbreak strains are common in the background population., Conclusion: The evidence suggests that transmission between hospitals units does occur. Using the proposed criteria, certain hypothesized transmission links between outbreaks were supported while others were refuted. The combined molecular/epidemiologic approach presented here could be applied to other viral populations and potentially to other pathogens for a more thorough view of transmission.

Background: Noroviruses are the most common cause of gastroenteritis outbreaks in industrialised countries. Gastroenteritis caused by Norovirus infection has been described as a highly seasonal syndrome, often referred to as "winter vomiting disease"., Methods: The Public Health Laboratory Service Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre has systematically collected reports of laboratory confirmed cases of Norovirus-gastroenteritis since 1995. We analysed these data for annual and seasonal trends and age distribution., Results: A mid-summer peak in reported cases of Norovirus was observed in 2002, unlike all six previous years when there was a marked summer decline. Total reports from 2002 have also been higher than all previous years. From the first 10 months of 2002, a total of 3029 Norovirus diagnoses were reported compared the previous peak in 1996 of 2437 diagnoses for the whole 12-month period. The increase in 2002 was most marked in the 65 and older age group., Conclusion: This surveillance data challenges the view that Noroviruses infections exclusively have wintertime seasonality.