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Background: Understanding the effects of risk factor burden and genetic predisposition on the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) is important to improve public health initiatives. However, the 10-year risk of AF considering risk factor burden and genetic predisposition is unknown. Methods: A total of 348,904 genetically unrelated participants without AF at baseline from the UK were categorized into three groups: index ages 45 years (n = 84,206), 55 years (n=117,520), and 65 years (n=147,178). Optimal, borderline, or elevated risk factor burden was determined by body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption, smoking status, and history of myocardial infarction or heart failure. Genetic predisposition was estimated using the polygenic risk score (PRS), constructed using 165 predefined genetic risk variants. The combined effects of risk factor burden and PRS on the risk of incident AF in 10 years were estimated for each index age. Fine and Gray models were developed to predict the 10-year risk of AF. Results: The overall 10-year risk of AF was 0.67% (95% CI: 0.61–0.73%) for index age 45 years, 2.05% (95% CI: 1.96–2.13%) for index age 55 years, and 6.34% (95% CI: 6.21–6.46%) for index age 65 years, respectively. An optimal risk factor burden was associated with later AF onset regardless of genetic predisposition and sex (P < 0.001). Significant synergistic interactions were observed for risk factor burden with PRS at each index age (P < 0.05). Participants with an elevated risk factor burden and high PRS had the highest 10-year risk of AF in reference to those who had both an optimal risk factor burden and a low PRS. At younger ages, optimal risk burden and high PRS might also lead to later onset of AF, compared to the joint effect of elevated risk burden and low/intermediate PRS. Conclusions: Risk factor burden together with a genetic predisposition is associated with the 10-year risk of AF. Our results may be helpful in selecting high-risk individuals for primary prevention of AF and facilitating subsequent health interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We aimed to replicate existing international (US and UK) mortality indices using Irish data. We developed and validated a four-year mortality index for adults aged 50 + in Ireland and compared performance with these international indices. We then extended this model by including additional predictors (self-report and healthcare utilization) and compared its performance to our replication model.Methods: Eight thousand one hundred seventy-four participants in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing were split for development (n = 4,121) and validation (n = 4,053). Six baseline predictor categories were examined (67 variables total): demographics; cardiovascular-related illness; non-cardiovascular illness; health and lifestyle variables; functional variables; self-report (wellbeing and social connectedness) and healthcare utilization. We identified variables independently associated with four-year mortality in the development cohort and attached these variables a weight according to strength of association. We summed the weights to calculate a single index score for each participant and evaluated predicted accuracy in the validation cohort.Results: Our final 14-predictor (extended) model assigned risk points for: male (1pt); age (65-69: 2pts; 70-74: 4 pts; 75-79: 4pts; 80-84: 6pts; 85 + : 7pts); heart attack (1pt); cancer (3pts); smoked past age 30 (2pts); difficulty walking 100 m (2pts); difficulty using the toilet (3pts); difficulty lifting 10lbs (1pts); poor self-reported health (1pt); and hospital admission in previous year (1pt). Index discrimination was strong (ROC area = 0.78).Discussion: Our index is predictive of four-year mortality in community-dwelling older Irish adults. Comparisons with the international indices show that our 12-predictor (replication) model performed well and suggests that generalisability is high. Our 14-predictor (extended) model showed modest improvements compared to the 12-predictor model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Alcohol consumption is a leading contributor to death and disability worldwide, but previous research has not examined the effects of different patterns of alcohol consumption. The study objective was to understand the relationship between different alcohol consumption patterns and adverse health outcomes risk, adjusting for average amount consumed among regular drinkers.Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of UK Biobank (UKB) participants. Abstainers, infrequent alcohol consumers or those with previous cancer, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or liver cirrhosis were excluded. We used beverage type, consumption with food and consumption frequency as exposures and adjusted for potential confounding. All-cause mortality, major cardiovascular events-MACE (MI/stroke/cardiovascular death), accidents/injuries, liver cirrhosis, all-cause and alcohol-related cancer incidence over 9-year median follow-up period were outcomes of interest.Results: The final sample size for analysis was N = 309,123 (61.5% of UKB sample). Spirit drinking was associated with higher adjusted mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 1.25; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.14-1.38), MACE (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.15-1.50), cirrhosis (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.08-2.03) and accident/injuries (HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.03-1.19) risk compared to red wine drinking, after adjusting for the average weekly alcohol consumption amounts. Beer/cider drinkers were also at a higher risk of mortality (HR 1.18; 95% CI 1.10-1.27), MACE (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.05-1.27), cirrhosis (HR 1.36; 95% CI 1.06-1.74) and accidents/injuries (HR 1.11; 95% CI 1.06-1.17). Alcohol consumption without food was associated with higher adjusted mortality (HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.02-1.17) risk, compared to consumption with food. Alcohol consumption over 1-2 times/week had higher adjusted mortality (HR 1.09; 95% CI 1.03-1.16) and MACE (HR 1.14; 95% CI 1.06-1.23) risk, compared to 3-4 times/week, adjusting for the amount of alcohol consumed.Conclusion: Red wine drinking, consumption with food and spreading alcohol intake over 3-4 days were associated with lower risk of mortality and vascular events among regular alcohol drinkers, after adjusting for the effects of average amount consumed. Selection bias and residual confounding are important possible limitations. These findings, if replicated and validated, have the potential to influence policy and practice advice on less harmful patterns of alcohol consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sociodemographic, health- and work-related factors have been found to influence return to work in cancer survivors. It is feasible though that behavioural factors, such as expectation of being at work, could also affect work-related outcomes. Therefore, the effect of earlier identified factors and expectation of being at work on future employment status in cancer survivors was explored. To assess the degree to which these factors specifically concern cancer survivors, a comparison with heart attack survivors was made.Methods: Data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were used. Cancer and heart attack survivors of working age in the UK were included and followed up for 2 years. Baseline characteristics of both cancer and heart attack survivors were compared regarding employment status. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed in survivors at work, and the interaction between independent variables and diagnose group was assessed.Results: In cancer survivors at work (N = 159), alcohol consumption, participating in moderate or vigorous sport activities, general health and participation were univariate associated with employment status at two-year follow-up. Only fair general health (compared to very good general health) remained statistically significant in the multivariate model (OR 0.31; 95% CI 0.13-0.76; p = 0.010). In heart attack survivors at work (N = 78), gender, general health and expectation of being at work were univariate associated with employment status at follow-up. Female gender (OR 0.03; 95% CI 0.00-0.57; p = 0.018) and high expectation of being at work (OR 10.68; 95% CI 1.23-93.92; p = 0.033) remained significant in the multivariate model. The influence of gender (p = 0.066) and general health (p = 0.020) regarding employment status was found to differ significantly between cancer and heart attack survivors.Conclusions: When predicting future employment status in cancer survivors in the UK, general health is the most relevant factor to consider. While expectation of being at work did not show any significant influence in cancer survivors, in heart attack survivors, it should not be disregarded though, when developing interventions to affect their employment status. Future research should focus on more specific measures for expectation, and additional behavioural factors, such as self-efficacy, and their effect on employment status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]