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Background: To design a pulmonary ground-glass nodules (GGN) classification method based on computed tomography (CT) radiomics and machine learning for prediction of invasion in early-stage ground-glass opacity (GGO) pulmonary adenocarcinoma. Methods: This retrospective study included pulmonary GGN patients who were histologically confirmed to have adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS), minimally invasive adenocarcinoma (MIA), or invasive adenocarcinoma cancer (IAC) from 2020 to 2023. CT images of all patients were automatically segmented and 107 radiomic features were obtained for each patient. Classification models were developed using random forest (RF) and cross-validation, including three one-versus-others models and one three-class model. For each model, features were ranked by normalized Gini importance, and a minimal subset was selected with a cumulative importance exceeding 0.9. These selected features were then used to train the final models. The models' performance metrics, including area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, were computed. AUC and accuracy were compared to determine the final optimal method. Results: The study comprised 193 patients (mean age 54 ± 11 years, 65 men), including 65 AIS, 54 MIA, and 74 IAC, divided into one training cohort (N = 154) and one test cohort (N = 39). The final three-class RF model outperformed three individual one-versus-others models in distinguishing each class from the other two. For the multiclass classification model, the AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.87, 0.79, 0.62, and 0.88 for AIS; 0.90, 0.79, 0.54, and 0.89 for MIA; and 0.87, 0.69, 0.73, and 0.67 for IAC, respectively. Conclusions: A radiomics-based multiclass RF model could effectively differentiate three types of pulmonary GGN, which enabled early diagnosis of GGO pulmonary adenocarcinoma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study aimed to develop a deep learning model to predict skeletal malocclusions with an acceptable level of accuracy using airway and cephalometric landmark values obtained from analyzing different CBCT images. Background: In orthodontics, multitudinous studies have reported the correlation between orthodontic treatment and changes in the anatomy as well as the functioning of the airway. Typically, the values obtained from various measurements of cephalometric landmarks are used to determine skeletal class based on the interpretation an orthodontist experiences, which sometimes may not be accurate. Methods: Samples of skeletal anatomical data were retrospectively obtained and recorded in Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) file format. The DICOM files were used to reconstruct 3D models using 3DSlicer (slicer.org) by thresholding airway regions to build up 3D polygon models of airway regions for each sample. The 3D models were measured for different landmarks that included measurements across the nasopharynx, the oropharynx, and the hypopharynx. Male and female subjects were combined as one data set to develop supervised learning models. These measurements were utilized to build 7 artificial intelligence-based supervised learning models. Results: The supervised learning model with the best accuracy was Random Forest, with a value of 0.74. All the other models were lower in terms of their accuracy. The recall scores for Class I, II, and III malocclusions were 0.71, 0.69, and 0.77, respectively, which represented the total number of actual positive cases predicted correctly, making the sensitivity of the model high. Conclusion: In this study, it is observed that the Random Forest model was the most accurate model for predicting the skeletal malocclusion based on various airway and cephalometric landmarks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and purpose: Early detection, diagnosis, and treatment of colorectal cancer and its precancerous lesions can significantly improve patients' survival rates. The purpose of this research is to identify methylation markers specific to colorectal cancer tissues and validate their diagnostic capability in colorectal cancer and precancerous changes by measuring the level of DNA methylation in stool samples. Method: We analyzed samples from six cancer tissues and adjacent normal tissues and fecal samples from 758 participants, including 62 patients with interfering diseases. Bioinformatics databases were used to screen for candidate biomarkers for CRC, and quantitative methylation-specific PCR methods were applied for identification. The methylation levels of the candidate biomarkers in fecal and tissue samples were measured. Logistic regression and random forest models were built and validated using fecal sample data from one of the centers, and the independent or combined diagnostic value of the candidate biomarkers in fecal samples for CRC and precancerous lesions was analyzed. Finally, the diagnostic capability and stability of the model were validated at another medical center. Results: This study identified two colorectal cancer CpG sites with tissue specificity. These two biomarkers have certain diagnostic power when used individually, but their diagnostic value for colorectal cancer and colorectal adenoma is more significant when they are used in combination. Conclusion: The results indicate that a DNA methylation biomarker combined diagnostic model based on two CpG sites, cg13096260 and cg12587766, has the potential for screening and diagnosing precancerous lesions and colorectal cancer. Additionally, compared to traditional diagnostic models, machine learning algorithms perform better but may yield more false-positive results, necessitating further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sepsis poses a critical threat to hospitalized patients, particularly those in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Rapid identification of Sepsis is crucial for improving survival rates. Machine learning techniques offer advantages over traditional methods for predicting outcomes. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model using a Stacking-based Meta-Classifier to predict 30-day mortality risks in Sepsis-3 patients from the MIMIC-III database. Methods: A cohort of 4,240 Sepsis-3 patients was analyzed, with 783 experiencing 30-day mortality and 3,457 surviving. Fifteen biomarkers were selected using feature ranking methods, including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest, and Extra Tree, and the Logistic Regression (LR) model was used to assess their individual predictability with a fivefold cross-validation approach for the validation of the prediction. The dataset was balanced using the SMOTE-TOMEK LINK technique, and a stacking-based meta-classifier was used for 30-day mortality prediction. The SHapley Additive explanations analysis was performed to explain the model's prediction. Results: Using the LR classifier, the model achieved an area under the curve or AUC score of 0.99. A nomogram provided clinical insights into the biomarkers' significance. The stacked meta-learner, LR classifier exhibited the best performance with 95.52% accuracy, 95.79% precision, 95.52% recall, 93.65% specificity, and a 95.60% F1-score. Conclusions: In conjunction with the nomogram, the proposed stacking classifier model effectively predicted 30-day mortality in Sepsis patients. This approach holds promise for early intervention and improved outcomes in treating Sepsis cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) remains one of the most lethal urological malignancies even though a great number of improvements in diagnosis and management have achieved over the past few decades. Accumulated evidence revealed that histone deacetylases (HDACs) play vital role in cell proliferation, differentiation and apoptosis. Nevertheless, the biological functions of histone deacetylation modification related genes in ccRCC remains poorly understood. Method: Bulk transcriptomic data and clinical information of ccRCC patients were obtained from the TCGA database and collected from the Chinese PLA General Hospital. A total of 36 histone deacetylation genes were selected and studied in our research. Univariate cox regression analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, random forest (RF) analysis, and protein-protein interaction (PPI) network analysis were applied to identify key genes affecting the prognosis of ccRCC. The 'oncoPredict' algorithm was utilized for drug-sensitive analysis. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analysis was used to explore the potential biological function. The ssGSEA algorithm was used for tumor immune microenvironment analysis. The expression levels of HDAC10 were validated by RT-PCR and immunohistochemistry (IHC). 5-ethynyl-2′-deoxyuridine (EdU assay), CCK-8 assay, cell transwell migration and invasion assay and colony formation assay were performed to detect the proliferation and invasion ability of ccRCC cells. A nomogram incorporating HDAC10 and clinicopathological characteristics was established to predict the prognosis of ccRCC patients. Result: Two machine learning algorithms and PPI analysis identified four histone deacetylation genes that have a significant association with the prognosis of ccRCC, with HDAC10 being the key gene among them. HDAC10 is highly expressed in ccRCC and its high expression is associated with poor prognosis for ccRCC patients. Pathway enrichment and the experiments of EdU staining, CCK-8 assay, cell transwell migration and invasion assay and colony formation assay demonstrated that HDAC10 mediated the proliferation and metastasis of ccRCC cells and involved in reshaping the tumor microenvironment (TME) of ccRCC. A clinically reliable prognostic predictive model was established by incorporating HDAC10 and other clinicopathological characteristics (https://nomogramhdac10.shinyapps.io/HDAC10%5fNomogram/). Conclusion: Our study found the increased expression of HDAC10 was closely associated with poor prognosis of ccRCC patients. HDAC10 showed a pro-tumorigenic effect on ccRCC and promote the proliferation and metastasis of ccRCC, which may provide new light on targeted therapy for ccRCC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the use of machine learning methodologies in the diagnosis of endometriosis (EM). Methods: This study included a total of 106 patients with EM and 203 patients with non-EM conditions (like simple cysts and simple uterine fibroids), all admitted to the Shunyi Women's and Children's Hospital of Beijing Children's Hospital between January 2017 and September 2022. All participants were free of comorbidities and their diagnoses were confirmed via postoperative pathology. Comparative analysis was conducted between the EM and non-EM groups. Baseline data were assessed, including white blood cell count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, mean platelet volume, hemoglobin, carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125), carbohydrate antigen 199, coagulation parameters, and other serologic indicators. An optimal predictive model was developed using an artificial intelligence algorithm to determine the presence of EM. The objective is to provide new insights for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of EM. Results: The random forest algorithm demonstrated superior performance when compared to decision trees, LogitBoost, artificial neural networks, naïve Bayes, support vector machines, and linear regression in machine learning methods. Combining CA125 with the NLR yielded a better prediction of EM than using CA125 alone when applying the random forest algorithm. The accuracy of predicting EM with CA125 combined with NLR was 78.16%, with a sensitivity of 86.21% and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (P < 0.05). In contrast, using CA125 alone resulted in an EM prediction accuracy of 75.8%, with a sensitivity of 79.3% and an AUC of 0.82 (P < 0.05). Conclusion: The diagnostic value of serum CA125 combined with the NLR for EM is higher than that of serum CA125 alone. This finding indicates that NLR could serve as a new supplementary biomarker along with serum CA125 in the diagnosis of EM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Data imbalance is a pervasive issue in medical data mining, often leading to biased and unreliable predictive models. This study aims to address the urgent need for effective strategies to mitigate the impact of data imbalance on classification models. We focus on quantifying the effects of different imbalance degrees and sample sizes on model performance, identifying optimal cut-off values, and evaluating the efficacy of various methods to enhance model accuracy in highly imbalanced and small sample size scenarios. Methods: We collected medical records of patients receiving assisted reproductive treatment in a reproductive medicine center. Random forest was used to screen the key variables for the prediction target. Various datasets with different imbalance degrees and sample sizes were constructed to compare the classification performance of logistic regression models. Metrics such as AUC, G-mean, F1-Score, Accuracy, Recall, and Precision were used for evaluation. Four imbalance treatment methods (SMOTE, ADASYN, OSS, and CNN) were applied to datasets with low positive rates and small sample sizes to assess their effectiveness. Results: The logistic model's performance was low when the positive rate was below 10% but stabilized beyond this threshold. Similarly, sample sizes below 1200 yielded poor results, with improvement seen above this threshold. For robustness, the optimal cut-offs for positive rate and sample size were identified as 15% and 1500, respectively. SMOTE and ADASYN oversampling significantly improved classification performance in datasets with low positive rates and small sample sizes. Conclusions: The study identifies a positive rate of 15% and a sample size of 1500 as optimal cut-offs for stable logistic model performance. For datasets with low positive rates and small sample sizes, SMOTE and ADASYN are recommended to improve balance and model accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is a predictor of serious infectious complications, organ failure, and death in patients with severe polytrauma and is one of the reasons for delaying early total surgical treatment. To determine the risk of SIRS within 24 h after hospitalization, we developed six machine learning models. Materials and methods: Using retrospective data about the patient, the nature of the injury, the results of general and standard biochemical blood tests, and coagulation tests, six models were developed: decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, support vector and gradient boosting classifiers, logistic regressor, and neural network. The effectiveness of the models was assessed through internal and external validation. Results: Among the 439 selected patients with severe polytrauma in 230 (52.4%), SIRS was diagnosed within the first 24 h of hospitalization. The SIRS group was more strongly associated with class II bleeding (39.5% vs. 60.5%; OR 1.81 [95% CI: 1.23–2.65]; P = 0.0023), long-term vasopressor use (68.4% vs. 31.6%; OR 5.51 [95% CI: 2.37–5.23]; P < 0.0001), risk of acute coagulopathy (67.8% vs. 32.2%; OR 2.4 [95% CI: 1.55–3.77]; P < 0.0001), and greater risk of pneumonia (59.5% vs. 40.5%; OR 1.74 [95% CI: 1.19–2.54]; P = 0.0042), longer ICU length of stay (5 ± 6.3 vs. 2.7 ± 4.3 days; P < 0.0001) and mortality rate (64.5% vs. 35.5%; OR 10.87 [95% CI: 6.3–19.89]; P = 0.0391). Of all the models, the random forest classifier showed the best predictive ability in the internal (AUROC 0.89; 95% CI: 0.83–0.96) and external validation (AUROC 0.83; 95% CI: 0.75–0.91) datasets. Conclusions: The developed model made it possible to accurately predict the risk of developing SIRS in the early period after injury, allowing clinical specialists to predict patient management tactics and calculate medication and staffing needs for the patient. Level of evidence: Level 3. Trial registration: The study was retrospectively registered in the ClinicalTrials.gov database of the National Library of Medicine (NCT06323096). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To find the machine learning (ML) method that has the highest accuracy in predicting the semen quality of men based on basic questionnaire data about lifestyle behavior. Methods: The medical records of men whose semen was analyzed for any reason were collected. Those who had data about their lifestyle behaviors were included in the study. All semen analyses of the men included were evaluated according to the WHO 2021 guideline. All semen analyses were categorized as normozoospermia, oligozoospermia, teratozoospermia, and asthenozoospermia. The Extra Trees Classifier, Average (AVG) Blender, Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) Classifier, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) Classifier, Logistic Regression, and Random Forest Classifier techniques were used as ML algorithms. Results: Seven hundred thirty-four men who met the inclusion criteria and had data about lifestyle behavior were included in the study. 356 men (48.5%) had abnormal semen results, 204 (27.7%) showed the presence of oligozoospermia, 193 (26.2%) asthenozoospermia, and 265 (36.1%) teratozoospermia according to the WHO 2021. The AVG Blender model had the highest accuracy and AUC for predicting normozoospermia and teratozoospermia. The Extra Trees Classifier and Random Forest Classifier models achieved the best performance for predicting oligozoospermia and asthenozoospermia, respectively. Conclusion: The ML models have the potential to predict semen quality based on lifestyles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: At different times, public health faces various challenges and the degree of intervention measures varies. The research on the impact and prediction of meteorology factors on influenza is increasing gradually, however, there is currently no evidence on whether its research results are affected by different periods. This study aims to provide limited evidence to reveal this issue. Methods: Daily data on influencing factors and influenza in Xiamen were divided into three parts: overall period (phase AB), non-COVID-19 epidemic period (phase A), and COVID-19 epidemic period (phase B). The association between influencing factors and influenza was analysed using generalized additive models (GAMs). The excess risk (ER) was used to represent the percentage change in influenza as the interquartile interval (IQR) of meteorology factors increases. The 7-day average daily influenza cases were predicted using the combination of bi-directional long short memory (Bi-LSTM) and random forest (RF) through multi-step rolling input of the daily multifactor values of the previous 7-day. Results: In periods A and AB, air temperature below 22 °C was a risk factor for influenza. However, in phase B, temperature showed a U-shaped effect on it. Relative humidity had a more significant cumulative effect on influenza in phase AB than in phase A (peak: accumulate 14d, AB: ER = 281.54, 95% CI = 245.47 ~ 321.37; A: ER = 120.48, 95% CI = 100.37 ~ 142.60). Compared to other age groups, children aged 4–12 were more affected by pressure, precipitation, sunshine, and day light, while those aged ≥ 13 were more affected by the accumulation of humidity over multiple days. The accuracy of predicting influenza was highest in phase A and lowest in phase B. Conclusions: The varying degrees of intervention measures adopted during different phases led to significant differences in the impact of meteorology factors on influenza and in the influenza prediction. In association studies of respiratory infectious diseases, especially influenza, and environmental factors, it is advisable to exclude periods with more external interventions to reduce interference with environmental factors and influenza related research, or to refine the model to accommodate the alterations brought about by intervention measures. In addition, the RF-Bi-LSTM model has good predictive performance for influenza. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is a major contributor to chronic kidney disease. This study aims to identify immune biomarkers and potential therapeutic drugs in DN. Methods: We analyzed two DN microarray datasets (GSE96804 and GSE30528) for differentially expressed genes (DEGs) using the Limma package, overlapping them with immune-related genes from ImmPort and InnateDB. LASSO regression, SVM-RFE, and random forest analysis identified four hub genes (EGF, PLTP, RGS2, PTGDS) as proficient predictors of DN. The model achieved an AUC of 0.995 and was validated on GSE142025. Single-cell RNA data (GSE183276) revealed increased hub gene expression in epithelial cells. CIBERSORT analysis showed differences in immune cell proportions between DN patients and controls, with the hub genes correlating positively with neutrophil infiltration. Molecular docking identified potential drugs: cysteamine, eltrombopag, and DMSO. And qPCR and western blot assays were used to confirm the expressions of the four hub genes. Results: Analysis found 95 and 88 distinctively expressed immune genes in the two DN datasets, with 14 consistently differentially expressed immune-related genes. After machine learning algorithms, EGF, PLTP, RGS2, PTGDS were identified as the immune-related hub genes associated with DN. In addition, the mRNA and protein levels of them were obviously elevated in HK-2 cells treated with glucose for 24 h, as well as their mRNA expressions in kidney tissues of mice with DN. Conclusion: This study identified 4 hub immune-related genes (EGF, PLTP, RGS2, PTGDS), as well as their expression profiles and the correlation with immune cell infiltration in DN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: With increasing attention given to host-specific lipid metabolism status, it is of urgent need to identify lipid metabolism indices with predictive or prognostic value in locally advanced breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), and to evaluate the performance improvement by incorporating them into the existing Neo-Bioscore staging system. Methods: Patients from a prospectively maintained database of locally advanced breast cancer patients who received radical surgery after NAC between January 2014 to December 2020 were enrolled in this study. The enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a test set at a ratio of 6:4. The random forest algorithm was applied to rank the importance of prognostic factors, top-ranked lipid metabolism indices of which were then incorporated into Neo-Bioscore to construct an updated prognostic model. The performances of these two models were compared in both training set and test set from multiple perspectives. Study outcomes included disease-free survival (DFS), relapse-free survival (RFS), distance-recurrence-free survival (DRFS), locoregional-recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: A total of 200 eligible patients were included in this study. After a median follow-up of 4.73 years, it was demonstrated that the relative increase in total cholesterol (TC; DFS: HR = 4.782, 95%CI 1.410 ~ 16.217, P = 0.012) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL; DFS: HR = 4.622, 95%CI 1.517 ~ 14.088, P = 0.007) during NAC led to poorer survival outcomes. Patients with either a higher body mass index (BMI) or elevated LDL during NAC had a worse prognosis (DFS: HR = 6.351, 95%CI 1.938 ~ 20.809, P = 0.002; OS, HR = 6.919, 95%CI 1.296 ~ 36.932, P = 0.024). Incorporating BMI and LDL fluctuations during NAC into Neo-Bioscore improved the prognostic stratification, especially in terms of LRFS (P = 0.046 vs. P = 0.65) and OS (P = 0.013 vs. P = 0.61). Multidimensional evaluation confirmed the improvement in model fit and clinical use for the updated model in both training set and test set. Conclusions: This is the first study to illustrate the relative elevation of LDL and TC levels during NAC as independent prognosticators for locally advanced breast cancer. This is also the first attempt to incorporate lipid metabolism indices into the original Neo-Bioscore staging system, which further improves the prognostic stratification of patients receiving NAC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Aging is an inevitable biological process. Accelerated aging renders adults more susceptible to chronic diseases and increases their mortality rates. Previous studies have reported the relationship between lifestyle factors and phenotypic aging. However, the relationship between intrinsic factors, such as reproductive factors, and phenotypic aging remains unclear. Methods: This study utilized data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), spanning from 1999 to 2010 and 2015–2018, with 14,736 adult women. Random forest imputation was used to handle missing covariate values in the final cohort. Weighted linear regression was utilized to analyze the relationship between women-specific reproductive factors and PhenoAgeAccel. Considering the potential impact of menopausal status on the results, additional analyses were conducted on premenopausal and postmenopausal participants. Additionally, the Life's Essential 8 (LE8) was used to investigate the impact of healthy lifestyle and other factors on the relationship between women-specific reproductive factors and PhenoAgeAccel. Stratified analyses were conducted based on significant interaction p-values. Results: In the fully adjusted models, delayed menarche and gynecological surgery were associated with increased PhenoAgeAccel, whereas pregnancy history were associated with a decrease. Additionally, early or late ages of menopause, first live birth, and last live birth can all negatively impact PhenoAgeAccel. The relationship between women-specific reproductive factors and PhenoAgeAccel differs between premenopausal and postmenopausal women. High LE8 scores positively impacted the relationship between certain reproductive factors (age at menarche, age at menopause, age at first live birth, and age at last live birth) and phenotypic age acceleration. Stratified analysis showed significant interactions for the following variables: BMI with age at menarche, pregnancy history, and age at menopause; ethnicity with age at menopause, age at first live birth, and parity; smoking status with use of contraceptive pills and gynecologic surgery; hypertension with use of contraceptive pills, pregnancy history, and age at menopause. Conclusion: Delayed menarche, gynecological surgery, and early or late ages of menopause, first live birth, and last live birth are associated with accelerated phenotypic aging. High LE8 score may alleviate the adverse effects of reproductive factors on phenotypic aging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patients with airway stenosis (AS) are associated with considerable morbidity and mortality after lung transplantation (LTx). This study aims to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to predict AS requiring clinical intervention in patients after LTx. Methods: Patients who underwent LTx between January 2017 and December 2019 were reviewed. The conventional logistic regression (LR) model was fitted by the independent risk factors which were determined by multivariate LR. The optimal ML model was determined based on 7 feature selection methods and 8 ML algorithms. Model performance was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC) and brier score, which were internally validated by the bootstrap method. Results: A total of 381 LTx patients were included, and 40 (10.5%) patients developed AS. Multivariate analysis indicated that male, pulmonary arterial hypertension, and postoperative 6-min walking test were significantly associated with AS (all P < 0.001). The conventional LR model showed performance with an AUC of 0.689 and brier score of 0.091. In total, 56 ML models were developed and the optimal ML model was the model fitted using a random forest algorithm with a determination coefficient feature selection method. The optimal model exhibited the highest AUC and brier score values of 0.760 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.666–0.864) and 0.085 (95% CI, 0.058–0.117) among all ML models, which was superior to the conventional LR model. Conclusions: The optimal ML model, which was developed by clinical characteristics, allows for the satisfactory prediction of AS in patients after LTx. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurately predicting ovulation timing is critical for women undergoing natural cycle-frozen embryo transfer. However, the precise predicting of the ovulation timing remains challenging due to the lack of consensus among different clinics regarding the definition of this significant event. Objective: To compare the effectiveness of preovulatory serum progesterone levels (P4) versus luteinizing hormone levels (LH) in predicting ovulation time using two machine learning models. Methods: 771 patients who underwent autologous natural cycle-frozen embryo transfer between January 2015 and February 2022 were recruited. Utilizing variables including follicle diameters, preovulatory serum levels of LH, E2, and P4, two machine learning models were constructed to predict the ovulation time, the importance of the variables in predicting ovulation timing was further ranked. Results: Two machine learning models have the capability to accurately predict the timing of ovulation, specifically within 72, 48, or 24 h. The overall accuracy rates of the validation dataset, as determined by the classification trees and random forest models, were found to be 78.83% and 85.28% respectively. Notably, when predicting ovulation within 24 h, the accuracy rate of P4 ≥ 0.65ng/ml exceeded 92%. Furthermore, it was important to consider LH or E2 levels in conjunction with P4 when assessing ovulation timing in cases where P4<0.65ng/ml. Conclusions: Preovulatory serum P4 levels are better predictors of ovulation timing than LH levels and could be used as an alternative in clinical settings, and the model we developed can be used to pinpoint the day of ovulation. Ongoing research and advancements in technology are anticipated to enhance and refine the ovulation method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Culicoides biting midges exhibit a global spatial distribution and are the main vectors of several viruses of veterinary importance, including bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS). Many environmental and anthropological factors contribute to their ability to live in a variety of habitats, which have the potential to change over the years as the climate changes. Therefore, as new habitats emerge, the risk for new introductions of these diseases of interest to occur increases. The aim of this study was to model distributions for two primary vectors for BT and AHS (Culicoides imicola and Culicoides bolitinos) using random forest (RF) machine learning and explore the relative importance of environmental and anthropological factors in a region of South Africa with frequent AHS and BT outbreaks. Methods: Culicoides capture data were collected between 1996 and 2022 across 171 different capture locations in the Western Cape. Predictor variables included climate-related variables (temperature, precipitation, humidity), environment-related variables (normalised difference vegetation index—NDVI, soil moisture) and farm-related variables (livestock densities). Random forest (RF) models were developed to explore the spatial distributions of C. imicola, C. bolitinos and a merged species map, where both competent vectors were combined. The maps were then compared to interpolation maps using the same capture data as well as historical locations of BT and AHS outbreaks. Results: Overall, the RF models performed well with 75.02%, 61.6% and 74.01% variance explained for C. imicola, C. bolitinos and merged species models respectively. Cattle density was the most important predictor for C. imicola and water vapour pressure the most important for C. bolitinos. Compared to interpolation maps, the RF models had higher predictive power throughout most of the year when species were modelled individually; however, when merged, the interpolation maps performed better in all seasons except winter. Finally, midge densities did not show any conclusive correlation with BT or AHS outbreaks. Conclusion: This study yielded novel insight into the spatial abundance and drivers of abundance of competent vectors of BT and AHS. It also provided valuable data to inform mathematical models exploring disease outbreaks so that Culicoides-transmitted diseases in South Africa can be further analysed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Premature ovarian failure (POF) is a clinical condition characterized by the cessation of ovarian function, leading to infertility. The underlying molecular mechanisms remain unclear, and no predictable biomarkers have been identified. This study aimed to investigate the protein and metabolite contents of serum extracellular vesicles to investigate underlying molecular mechanisms and explore potential biomarkers. Methods: This study was conducted on a cohort consisting of 14 POF patients and 16 healthy controls. The extracellular vesicles extracted from the serum of each group were subjected to label-free proteomic and unbiased metabolomic analysis. Differentially expressed proteins and metabolites were annotated. Pathway network clustering was conducted with further correlation analysis. The biomarkers were confirmed by ROC analysis and random forest machine learning. Results: The proteomic and metabolomic profiles of POF patients and healthy controls were compared. Two subgroups of POF patients, Pre-POF and Pro-POF, were identified based on the proteomic profile, while all patients displayed a distinguishable metabolomic profile. Proteomic analysis suggested that inflammation serves as an early factor contributing to the infertility of POF patients. For the metabolomic analysis, despite the dysfunction of metabolism, oxidative stress and hormone imbalance were other key factors appearing in POF patients. Signaling pathway clustering of proteomic and metabolomic profiles revealed the progression of dysfunctional energy metabolism during the development of POF. Moreover, correlation analysis identified that differentially expressed proteins and metabolites were highly associated, with six of them being selected as potential biomarkers. ROC curve analysis, together with random forest machine learning, suggested that AFM combined with 2-oxoarginine was the best diagnostic biomarker for POF. Conclusions: Omics analysis revealed that inflammation, oxidative stress, and hormone imbalance are factors that damage ovarian tissue, but the progressive dysfunction of energy metabolism might be the critical pathogenic pathway contributing to the development of POF. AFM combined with 2-oxoarginine serves as a precise biomarker for clinical POF diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The congenital ventricular outflow tract malformations (CVOTMs) is a major congenital heart diseases (CHDs) subtype, and its pathogenesis is complex and unclear. Lipid metabolic plays a crucial role in embryonic cardiovascular development. However, due to the limited types of detectable metabolites in previous studies, findings on lipid metabolic and CHDs are still inconsistent, and the possible mechanism of CHDs remains unclear. Methods: The nest case-control study obtained subjects from the multicenter China Teratology Birth Cohort (CTBC), and maternal serum from the pregnant women enrolled during the first trimester was utilized. The subjects were divided into a discovery set and a validation set. The metabolomics of CVOTMs and normal fetuses were analyzed by targeted lipid metabolomics. Differential comparison, random forest and lasso regression were used to screen metabolic biomarkers. Results: The lipid metabolites were distributed differentially between the cases and controls. Setting the selection criteria of P value < 0.05, and fold change (FC) > 1.2 or < 0.833, we screened 70 differential metabolites. Within the prediction model by random forest and lasso regression, DG (14:0_18:0), DG (20:0_18:0), Cer (d18:2/20:0), Cer (d18:1/20:0) and LPC (0:0/18:1) showed good prediction effects in discovery and validation sets. Differential metabolites were mainly concentrated in glycerolipid and glycerophospholipids metabolism, insulin resistance and lipid & atherosclerosis pathways, which may be related to the occurrence and development of CVOTMs. Conclusion: Findings in this study provide a new metabolite data source for the research on CHDs. The differential metabolites and involved metabolic pathways may suggest new ideas for further mechanistic exploration of CHDs, and the selected biomarkers may provide some new clues for detection of COVTMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To identify the key risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in urological inpatients based on the Caprini scale using an interpretable machine learning method. Methods: VTE risk data of urological inpatients were obtained based on the Caprini scale in the case hospital. Based on the data, the Boruta method was used to further select the key variables from the 37 variables in the Caprini scale. Furthermore, decision rules corresponding to each risk level were generated using the rough set (RS) method. Finally, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN) were used to verify the data accuracy and were compared with the RS method. Results: Following the screening, the key risk factors for VTE in urology were "(C1) Age," "(C2) Minor Surgery planned," "(C3) Obesity (BMI > 25)," "(C8) Varicose veins," "(C9) Sepsis (< 1 month)," (C10) "Serious lung disease incl. pneumonia (< 1month) " (C11) COPD," "(C16) Other risk," "(C18) Major surgery (> 45 min)," "(C19) Laparoscopic surgery (> 45 min)," "(C20) Patient confined to bed (> 72 h)," "(C18) Malignancy (present or previous)," "(C23) Central venous access," "(C31) History of DVT/PE," "(C32) Other congenital or acquired thrombophilia," and "(C34) Stroke (< 1 month." According to the decision rules of different risk levels obtained using the RS method, "(C1) Age," "(C18) Major surgery (> 45 minutes)," and "(C21) Malignancy (present or previous)" were the main factors influencing mid- and high-risk levels, and some suggestions on VTE prevention were indicated based on these three factors. The average accuracies of the RS, RF, SVM, and BPANN models were 79.5%, 87.9%, 92.6%, and 97.2%, respectively. In addition, BPANN had the highest accuracy, recall, F1-score, and precision. Conclusions: The RS model achieved poorer accuracy than the other three common machine learning models. However, the RS model provides strong interpretability and allows for the identification of high-risk factors and decision rules influencing high-risk assessments of VTE in urology. This transparency is very important for clinicians in the risk assessment process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Accurate prediction of survival prognosis is helpful to guide clinical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a model using machine learning techniques to predict the occurrence of composite thromboembolic events (CTEs) in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation(AF). These events encompass newly diagnosed cerebral ischemia events, cardiovascular events, pulmonary embolism, and lower extremity arterial embolism. Methods: This retrospective study included 6,079 elderly hospitalized patients (≥ 75 years old) with AF admitted to the People's Liberation Army General Hospital in China from January 2010 to June 2022. Random forest imputation was used for handling missing data. In the descriptive statistics section, patients were divided into two groups based on the occurrence of CTEs, and differences between the two groups were analyzed using chi-square tests for categorical variables and rank-sum tests for continuous variables. In the machine learning section, the patients were randomly divided into a training dataset (n = 4,225) and a validation dataset (n = 1,824) in a 7:3 ratio. Four machine learning models (logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, XGBoost) were trained on the training dataset and validated on the validation dataset. Results: The incidence of composite thromboembolic events was 19.53%. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method, using 5-fold cross-validation, was applied to the training dataset and identified a total of 18 features that exhibited a significant association with the occurrence of CTEs. The random forest model outperformed other models in terms of area under the curve (ACC: 0.9144, SEN: 0.7725, SPE: 0.9489, AUC: 0.927, 95% CI: 0.9105–0.9443). The random forest model also showed good clinical validity based on the clinical decision curve. The Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) showed that the top five features associated with the model were history of ischemic stroke, high triglyceride (TG), high total cholesterol (TC), high plasma D-dimer, age. Conclusions: This study proposes an accurate model to stratify patients with a high risk of CTEs. The random forest model has good performance. History of ischemic stroke, age, high TG, high TC and high plasma D-Dimer may be correlated with CTEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To develop a machine learning-based risk prediction model for postoperative parastomal hernia (PSH) in colorectal cancer patients undergoing permanent colostomy, assisting nurses in identifying high-risk groups and devising preventive care strategies. Methods: A case-control study was conducted on 495 colorectal cancer patients who underwent permanent colostomy at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from June 2017 to June 2023, with a 1-year follow-up period. Patients were categorized into PSH and non-PSH groups based on PSH occurrence within 1-year post-operation. Data were split into training (70%) and testing (30%) sets. Variable selection was performed using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression, and binary classification prediction models were established using Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Classification (SVC), K Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XgBoost). The binary classification label denoted 1 for PSH occurrence and 0 for no PSH occurrence. Parameters were optimized via 5-fold cross-validation. Model performance was evaluated using Area Under Curve (AUC), specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1-score. Clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA), model explanation was enhanced using shapley additive explanation (SHAP), and model visualization was achieved using a nomogram. Results: The incidence of PSH within 1 year was 29.1% (144 patients). Among the models tested, the RF model demonstrated the highest discrimination capability with an AUC of 0.888 (95% CI: 0.881–0.935), along with superior specificity, accuracy, sensitivity, and F1 score. It also showed the highest clinical net benefit on the DCA curve. SHAP analysis identified the top 10 influential variables associated with PSH risk: body mass index (BMI), operation duration, history and status of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), prealbumin, tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging, stoma site, thickness of rectus abdominis muscle (TRAM), C-reactive protein CRP, american society of anesthesiologists physical status classification (ASA), and stoma diameter. These insights from SHAP plots illustrated how these factors influence individual PSH outcomes. The nomogram was used for model visualization. Conclusion: The Random Forest model demonstrated robust predictive performance and clinical relevance in forecasting colonic PSH. This model aids in early identification of high-risk patients and guides preventive care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Nosocomial infections (NIs) frequently occur and adversely impact prognosis for hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. This study aims to develop and validate two machine learning models for NIs and in-hospital mortality risk prediction. Methods: The Prediction of Nosocomial Infection and Prognosis in Cirrhotic patients (PIPC) study included hospitalized patients with cirrhosis at the Qingchun Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University. We then assessed several machine learning algorithms to construct predictive models for NIs and prognosis. We validated the best-performing models with bootstrapping techniques and an external validation dataset. The accuracy of the predictions was evaluated through sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios, while predictive robustness was examined through subgroup analyses and comparisons between models. Results: We enrolled 1,297 patients into derivation cohort and 496 patients into external validation cohort. Among the six algorithms assessed, the Random Forest algorithm performed best. For NIs, the PIPC-NI model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.784 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.741–0.826), a sensitivity of 0.712, and a specificity of 0.702. For in-hospital mortality, the PIPC- mortality model achieved an AUC of 0.793 (95% CI 0.749–0.836), a sensitivity of 0.769, and a specificity of 0.701. Moreover, our PIPC models demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to the existing MELD, MELD-Na, and Child-Pugh scores. Conclusions: The PIPC models showed good predictive power and may facilitate healthcare providers in easily assessing the risk of NIs and prognosis among hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Advance care planning (ACP) can contribute to individuals making decisions about their healthcare preferences in advance of serious illness. Up to now, the acceptance level and associated factors of ACP among the public in China remain unclear. This study aims to investigate the acceptance level of ACP in China and identify factors associated with it based on the socioecological model. Methods: A total of 19,738 participants were included in this survey. We employed a random forest regression analysis to select factors derived from the socioecological model. Multivariate generalized linear model analysis was then conducted to explore the factors that were associated with the acceptance level of ACP. Results: On a scale ranging from 0 to 100, the median score for acceptance level of ACP was 64.00 (IQR: 48.00–83.00) points. The results of the multivariate generalized linear model analysis revealed that participants who scored higher on measures of openness and neuroticism personality traits, as well as those who had greater perceptions of social support, higher levels of health literacy, better neighborly relationships, family health, and family social status, were more likely to accept ACP. Conversely, participants who reported higher levels of subjective well-being and greater family communication levels demonstrated a lower likelihood of accepting ACP. Conclusions: This study identified multiple factors associated with the acceptance level of ACP. The findings offer valuable insights that can inform the design and implementation of targeted interventions aimed at facilitating a good death and may have significant implications for the formulation of end-of-life care policies and practices in other countries facing similar challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With childhood hypertension emerging as a global public health concern, understanding its associated factors is crucial. This study investigated the prevalence and associated factors of hypertension among Chinese children. This cross-sectional investigation was conducted in Pinghu, Zhejiang province, involving 2,373 children aged 8–14 years from 12 schools. Anthropometric measurements were taken by trained staff. Blood pressure (BP) was measured in three separate occasions, with an interval of at least two weeks. Childhood hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥ age-, sex-, and height-specific 95th percentile, across all three visits. A self-administered questionnaire was utilized to collect demographic, socioeconomic, health behavioral, and parental information at the first visit of BP measurement. Random forest (RF) and multivariable logistic regression model were used collectively to identify associated factors. Additionally, population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated. The prevalence of childhood hypertension was 5.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.1–5.9%). Children with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 85th percentile were grouped into abnormal weight, and those with waist circumference (WC) > 90th percentile were sorted into central obesity. Normal weight with central obesity (NWCO, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 5.04, 95% CI: 1.96–12.98), abnormal weight with no central obesity (AWNCO, aOR = 4.60, 95% CI: 2.57–8.21), and abnormal weight with central obesity (AWCO, aOR = 9.94, 95% CI: 6.06–16.32) were associated with an increased risk of childhood hypertension. Childhood hypertension was attributable to AWCO mostly (PAF: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.50–0.75), followed by AWNCO (PAF: 0.34, 95% CI: 0.19–0.51), and NWCO (PAF: 0.13, 95% CI: 0.03–0.30). Our results indicated that obesity phenotype is associated with childhood hypertension, and the role of weight management could serve as potential target for intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study evaluates the efficacy of integrating MRI deep transfer learning, radiomic signatures, and clinical variables to accurately preoperatively differentiate between stage T2 and T3 rectal cancer. Methods: We included 361 patients with pathologically confirmed stage T2 or T3 rectal cancer, divided into a training set (252 patients) and a test set (109 patients) at a 7:3 ratio. The study utilized features derived from deep transfer learning and radiomics, with Spearman rank correlation and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression techniques to reduce feature redundancy. Predictive models were developed using Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), and Support Vector Machine (SVM), selecting the best-performing model for a comprehensive predictive framework incorporating clinical data. Results: After removing redundant features, 24 key features were identified. In the training set, the area under the curve (AUC)values for LR, RF, DT, and SVM were 0.867, 0.834, 0.900, and 0.944, respectively; in the test set, they were 0.847, 0.803, 0.842, and 0.910, respectively. The combined model, using SVM and clinical variables, achieved AUCs of 0.946 in the trainingset and 0.920 in the test set. Conclusion: The study confirms the utility of a combined model of MRI deep transfer learning, radiomic features, and clinical factors for preoperative classification of stage T2 vs. T3 rectal cancer, offering significant technological support for precise diagnosis and potential clinical application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to increase the likelihood of obtaining treatment and achieving a complete recovery, early illness identification and diagnosis are crucial. Artificial intelligence is helpful with this process by allowing us to rapidly start the necessary protocol for treatment in the early stages of disease development. Artificial intelligence is a major contributor to the improvement of medical treatment for patients. In order to prevent and foresee this problem on the individual, family, and generational levels, Monitoring the patient's therapy and recovery is crucial. This study's objective is to outline a non-invasive method for using mammograms to detect breast abnormalities, classify breast disorders, and identify cancerous or benign tumor tissue in the breast. We used classification models on a dataset that has been pre-processed so that the number of samples is balanced, unlike previous work on the same dataset. Identifying cancerous or benign breast tissue requires the use of supervised learning techniques and algorithms, such as random forest (RF) and decision tree (DT) classifiers, to examine up to thirty features, such as breast size, mass, diameter, circumference, and the nature of the tumor (solid or cystic). To ascertain if the tissue is malignant or benign, the examination's findings are employed. These features are mostly what determines how effectively anything may be categorized. The DT classifier was able to get a score of 95.32%, while the RF satisfied a far higher 98.83 percent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Adverse birth outcomes, including preterm birth, low birth weight, and stillbirth, remain a major global health challenge, particularly in developing regions. Understanding the possible risk factors is crucial for designing effective interventions for birth outcomes. Accordingly, this study aimed to develop a predictive model for adverse birth outcomes among childbearing women in Sub-Saharan Africa using advanced machine learning techniques. Additionally, this study aimed to employ a novel data science interpretability techniques to identify the key risk factors and quantify the impact of each feature on the model prediction. Methods: The study population involved women of childbearing age from 26 Sub-Saharan African countries who had given birth within five years before the data collection, totaling 139,659 participants. Our data source was a recent Demographic Health Survey (DHS). We utilized various data balancing techniques. Ten advanced machine learning algorithms were employed, with the dataset split into 80% training and 20% testing sets. Model evaluation was conducted using various performance metrics, along with hyperparameter optimization. Association rule mining and SHAP analysis were employed to enhance model interpretability. Results: Based on our findings, about 28.59% (95% CI: 28.36, 28.83) of childbearing women in Sub-Saharan Africa experienced adverse birth outcomes. After repeated experimentation and evaluation, the random forest model emerged as the top-performing machine learning algorithm, with an AUC of 0.95 and an accuracy of 88.0%. The key risk factors identified were home deliveries, lack of prenatal iron supplementation, fewer than four antenatal care (ANC) visits, short and long delivery intervals, unwanted pregnancy, primiparous mothers, and geographic location in the West African region. Conclusion: The region continues to face persistent adverse birth outcomes, emphasizing the urgent need for increased attention and action. Encouragingly, advanced machine learning methods, particularly the random forest algorithm, have uncovered crucial insights that can guide targeted actions. Specifically, the analysis identifies risky groups, including first-time mothers, women with short or long birth intervals, and those with unwanted pregnancies. To address the needs of these high-risk women, the researchers recommend immediately providing iron supplements, scheduling comprehensive prenatal care, and strongly encouraging facility-based deliveries or skilled birth attendance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding how free-ranging animals behave can help in the design of optimal management strategies to both conserve species and enable individuals to express natural behaviours, maximising welfare. Animal-borne accelerometers passively collect data on body acceleration which can be interpreted to quantify behaviour. Accelerometers are increasingly used in behavioural research, however validation of accelerometer readouts to enable classification of discrete behaviours is required for each species. Pangolins are a heavily trafficked clade of mammals, all of which are considered vulnerable to extinction. They are also under-researched, with little known about their behaviour in the wild. In this study, we present the first validation of behavioural classification based on accelerometer readouts for a pangolin species; the ground pangolin (Smutsia temminckii). Results: We present a standardised protocol for attaching accelerometers to pangolins to minimise the impact of devices on welfare. We match the readouts from accelerometers to behaviours defined through video observations. Using a random forest classification, we defined five discrete behaviours (walking, digging, feeding, investigating ground, and stationary, accuracy of 85%) and three activity levels (low, medium, and high, accuracy of 94%) from accelerometer readouts. We determine optimal sampling frequency and window length (50 Hz and five seconds for discrete behaviour, 10 Hz and seven seconds for activity level). We then deploy accelerometers and classify the behaviour of three free-ranging pangolins for between two and four days. We find considerable variation in peak daily activity between free-ranging pangolins with different individuals displaying nocturnal and crepuscular behaviour. We also find that pangolins spend the majority of their time (between 62 and 71%) at rest. Conclusion: The methods we present will enable the quantification of ground pangolin behaviour in the wild to improve our understanding of the species' ecology and help inform conservation efforts. This will also help to improve our fundamental understanding of animal behaviour and ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In randomized clinical trials, treatment effects may vary, and this possibility is referred to as heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE). One way to quantify HTE is to partition participants into subgroups based on individual's risk of experiencing an outcome, then measuring treatment effect by subgroup. Given the limited availability of externally validated outcome risk prediction models, internal models (created using the same dataset in which heterogeneity of treatment analyses also will be performed) are commonly developed for subgroup identification. We aim to compare different methods for generating internally developed outcome risk prediction models for subject partitioning in HTE analysis. Methods: Three approaches were selected for generating subgroups for the 2,441 participants from the United States enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized controlled trial. An extant proportional hazards-based outcomes predictive risk model developed on the overall ASPREE cohort of 19,114 participants was identified and was used to partition United States' participants by risk of experiencing a composite outcome of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. Next, two supervised non-parametric machine learning outcome classifiers, decision trees and random forests, were used to develop multivariable risk prediction models and partition participants into subgroups with varied risks of experiencing the composite outcome. Then, we assessed how the partitioning from the proportional hazard model compared to those generated by the machine learning models in an HTE analysis of the 5-year absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo in each subgroup. Cochran's Q test was used to detect if ARR varied significantly by subgroup. Results: The proportional hazard model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the estimated risk scores; the decision tree model was used to generate 6 subgroups (6 automatically determined tree leaves); and the random forest model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the prediction probability as risk scores. Using the semi-parametric proportional hazards model, the ARR at 5 years was 15.1% (95% CI 4.0–26.3%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. Using the random forest model, the ARR at 5 years was 13.7% (95% CI 3.1–24.4%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. The highest outcome risk group in the decision tree model also exhibited a risk reduction, but the confidence interval was wider (5-year ARR = 17.0%, 95% CI= -5.4–39.4%). Cochran's Q test indicated ARR varied significantly only by subgroups created using the proportional hazards model. The hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo therapy did not significantly vary by subgroup in any of the models. The highest risk groups for the proportional hazards model and random forest model contained 230 participants each, while the highest risk group in the decision tree model contained 41 participants. Conclusions: The choice of technique for internally developed models for outcome risk subgroups influences HTE analyses. The rationale for the use of a particular subgroup determination model in HTE analyses needs to be explicitly defined based on desired levels of explainability (with features importance), uncertainty of prediction, chances of overfitting, and assumptions regarding the underlying data structure. Replication of these analyses using data from other mid-size clinical trials may help to establish guidance for selecting an outcomes risk prediction modelling technique for HTE analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To compare the difference in rebubbling rates between patients undergoing Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK) with endothelium-in using a standard IOL cartridge and those with endothelium-out DMEK utilizing a no-touch technique with borosilicate glass cartridge transplantation. Methods: This retrospective study included all eyes that underwent preloaded endothelium-in or endothelium-out DMEK transplantation from June 2019 to December 2023 at the Hanusch Hospital, Vienna, Austria. All DMEKs were harvested, prepared and preloaded at the European Eye Bank of Venice, Italy. DMEK surgeries were done by one experienced surgeon and the procedure was completed by air tamponade of the anterior chamber. Results: Overall, 32 eyes each of 31 endothelium-out patients and of 29 endothelium-in patients were included. 32 preloaded endothelium-in procedures were followed by 32 preloaded endothelium-out procedures. Rebubbling rate for endothelium-in was 15/32 (47%) and for endothelium-out was 7/25 (28%) (p = 0.035, Pearson's chi-squared test). Donor age was the most important variable for rebubbling in a random forest algorithm model (ROC: 0.69). Conclusions: Rebubbling rate in endothelium-out DMEK was less than two-thirds compared to endothelium-in DMEK favoring no-touch endothelium-out DMEK as the preferred technique of DMEK transplantation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The short-term prognosis of stroke patients is mainly influenced by the severity of the primary disease at admission and the trend of disease development during the acute phase (1–7 days after admission). Objective: The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between the bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) parameter trajectories during the acute phase of stroke patients and their short-term prognosis, and to investigate the predictive value of the prediction model constructed using BIA parameter trajectories and clinical indicators at admission for short-term prognosis in stroke patients. Methods: A total of 162 stroke patients were prospectively enrolled, and their clinical indicators at admission and BIA parameters during the first 1–7 days of admission were collected. A Group-Based Trajectory Model (GBTM) was employed to identify different subgroups of longitudinal trajectories of BIA parameters during the first 1–7 days of admission in stroke patients. The random forest algorithm was applied to screen BIA parameter trajectories and clinical indicators with predictive value, construct prediction models, and perform model comparisons. The outcome measure was the Modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at discharge. Results: PA in BIA parameters can be divided into four separate trajectory groups. The incidence of poor prognosis (mRS: 4–6) at discharge was significantly higher in the "Low PA Rapid Decline Group" (85.0%) than in the "High PA Stable Group " (33.3%) and in the "Medium PA Slow Decline Group "(29.5%) (all P < 0.05). In-hospital mortality was the highest in the "Low PA Rapid Decline Group" (60%) compared with the remaining trajectory groups (P < 0.05). Compared with the prediction model with only clinical indicators (Model 1), the prediction model with PA trajectories (Model 2) demonstrated higher predictive accuracy and efficacy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of Model 2 was 0.909 [95% CI 0.863, 0.956], integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI), 0.035 (P < 0.001), and net reclassification improvement (NRI), 0.175 (P = 0.031). Conclusion: PA trajectories during the first 1–7 days of admission are associated with the short-term prognosis of stroke patients. PA trajectories have additional value in predicting the short-term prognosis of stroke patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An increasing proportion of lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) occurs in patients even after they have stopped smoking. Here, we aimed to determine whether tobacco smoking induced changes across LUADs from patients who formerly smoked correspond to different biological and clinical factors. Methods: Random forest models (RFs) were trained utilizing a smoking associated signature developed from differentially expressed genes between LUAD patients who had never smoked (NS) or currently smoked (CS) from TCGA (n = 193) and BCCA (n = 69) cohorts. The RFs were subsequently applied to 299 and 131 formerly smoking patients from TCGA and MSKCC cohorts, respectively. FS were RF-classified as either CS-like or NS-like and associations with patient characteristics, biological features, and clinical outcomes were determined. Results: We elucidated a 123 gene signature that robustly classified NS and CS in both RNA-seq (AUC = 0.85) and microarray (AUC = 0.92) validation test sets. The RF classified 213 patients who had formerly smoked as CS-like and 86 as NS-like from the TCGA cohort. CS-like and NS-like status in formerly smoking patients correlated poorly with patient characteristics but had substantially different biological features including tumor mutational burden, number of mutations, mutagenic signatures and immune cell populations. NS-like formerly smoking patients had 17.5 months and 18.6 months longer overall survival than CS-like patients from the TCGA and MSKCC cohorts, respectively. Conclusions: Patients who had formerly smoked with LUAD harbor heterogeneous tumor biology. These patients can be divided by smoking induced gene expression to inform prognosis and underlying biological characteristics for treatment selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The tumor microenvironment (TME) plays a key role in lung cancer initiation, proliferation, invasion, and metastasis. Artificial intelligence (AI) methods could potentially accelerate TME analysis. The aims of this study were to (1) assess the feasibility of using hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained whole slide images (WSI) to develop an AI model for evaluating the TME and (2) to characterize the TME of adenocarcinoma (ADCA) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCCA) in fibrotic and non-fibrotic lung. Methods: The cohort was derived from chest CT scans of patients presenting with lung neoplasms, with and without background fibrosis. WSI images were generated from slides of all 76 available pathology cases with ADCA (n = 53) or SCCA (n = 23) in fibrotic (n = 47) or non-fibrotic (n = 29) lung. Detailed ground-truth annotations, including of stroma (i.e., fibrosis, vessels, inflammation), necrosis and background, were performed on WSI and optimized via an expert-in-the-loop (EITL) iterative procedure using a lightweight [random forest (RF)] classifier. A convolution neural network (CNN)-based model was used to achieve tissue-level multiclass segmentation. The model was trained on 25 annotated WSI from 13 cases of ADCA and SCCA within and without fibrosis and then applied to the 76-case cohort. The TME analysis included tumor stroma ratio (TSR), tumor fibrosis ratio (TFR), tumor inflammation ratio (TIR), tumor vessel ratio (TVR), tumor necrosis ratio (TNR), and tumor background ratio (TBR). Results: The model's overall classification for precision, sensitivity, and F1-score were 94%, 90%, and 91%, respectively. Statistically significant differences were noted in TSR (p = 0.041) and TFR (p = 0.001) between fibrotic and non-fibrotic ADCA. Within fibrotic lung, statistically significant differences were present in TFR (p = 0.039), TIR (p = 0.003), TVR (p = 0.041), TNR (p = 0.0003), and TBR (p = 0.020) between ADCA and SCCA. Conclusion: The combined EITL—RF CNN model using only H&E WSI can facilitate multiclass evaluation and quantification of the TME. There are significant differences in the TME of ADCA and SCCA present within or without background fibrosis. Future studies are needed to determine the significance of TME on prognosis and treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Nosocomial infections with heavy disease burden are becoming a major threat to the health care system around the world. Through long-term, systematic, continuous data collection and analysis, Nosocomial infection surveillance (NIS) systems are constructed in each hospital; while these data are only used as real-time surveillance but fail to realize the prediction and early warning function. Study is to screen effective predictors from the routine NIS data, through integrating the multiple risk factors and Machine learning (ML) methods, and eventually realize the trend prediction and risk threshold of Incidence of Nosocomial infection (INI). Methods: We selected two representative hospitals in southern and northern China, and collected NIS data from 2014 to 2021. Thirty-nine factors including hospital operation volume, nosocomial infection, antibacterial drug use and outdoor temperature data, etc. Five ML methods were used to fit the INI prediction model respectively, and to evaluate and compare their performance. Results: Compared with other models, Random Forest showed the best performance (5-fold AUC = 0.983) in both hospitals, followed by Support Vector Machine. Among all the factors, 12 indicators were significantly different between high-risk and low-risk groups for INI (P < 0.05). After screening the effective predictors through importance analysis, prediction model of the time trend was successfully constructed (R2 = 0.473 and 0.780, BIC = -1.537 and -0.731). Conclusions: The number of surgeries, antibiotics use density, critical disease rate and unreasonable prescription rate and other key indicators could be fitted to be the threshold predictions of INI and quantitative early warning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue fever (DF) has emerged as a significant public health concern in China. The spatiotemporal patterns and underlying influencing its spread, however, remain elusive. This study aims to identify the factors driving these variations and to assess the city-level risk of DF epidemics in China. Methods: We analyzed the frequency, intensity, and distribution of DF cases in China from 2003 to 2022 and evaluated 11 natural and socioeconomic factors as potential drivers. Using the random forest (RF) model, we assessed the contributions of these factors to local DF epidemics and predicted the corresponding city-level risk. Results: Between 2003 and 2022, there was a notable correlation between local and imported DF epidemics in case numbers (r = 0.41, P < 0.01) and affected cities (r = 0.79, P < 0.01). With the increase in the frequency and intensity of imported epidemics, local epidemics have become more severe. Their occurrence has increased from five to eight months per year, with case numbers spanning from 14 to 6641 per month. The spatial distribution of city-level DF epidemics aligns with the geographical divisions defined by the Huhuanyong Line (Hu Line) and Qin Mountain-Huai River Line (Q-H Line) and matched well with the city-level time windows for either mosquito vector activity (83.59%) or DF transmission (95.74%). The RF models achieved a high performance (AUC = 0.92) when considering the time windows. Importantly, they identified imported cases as the primary influencing factor, contributing significantly (24.82%) to local DF epidemics at the city level in the eastern region of the Hu Line (E–H region). Moreover, imported cases were found to have a linear promoting impact on local epidemics, while five climatic and six socioeconomic factors exhibited nonlinear effects (promoting or inhibiting) with varying inflection values. Additionally, this model demonstrated outstanding accuracy (hitting ratio = 95.56%) in predicting the city-level risks of local epidemics in China. Conclusions: China is experiencing an increasing occurrence of sporadic local DF epidemics driven by an unavoidably higher frequency and intensity of imported DF epidemics. This research offers valuable insights for health authorities to strengthen their intervention capabilities against this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Biologically annotated neural networks (BANNs) are feedforward Bayesian neural network models that utilize partially connected architectures based on SNP-set annotations. As an interpretable neural network, BANNs model SNP and SNP-set effects in their input and hidden layers, respectively. Furthermore, the weights and connections of the network are regarded as random variables with prior distributions reflecting the manifestation of genetic effects at various genomic scales. However, its application in genomic prediction has yet to be explored. Results: This study extended the BANNs framework to the area of genomic selection and explored the optimal SNP-set partitioning strategies by using dairy cattle datasets. The SNP-sets were partitioned based on two strategies–gene annotations and 100 kb windows, denoted as BANN_gene and BANN_100kb, respectively. The BANNs model was compared with GBLUP, random forest (RF), BayesB and BayesCπ through five replicates of five-fold cross-validation using genotypic and phenotypic data on milk production traits, type traits, and one health trait of 6,558, 6,210 and 5,962 Chinese Holsteins, respectively. Results showed that the BANNs framework achieves higher genomic prediction accuracy compared to GBLUP, RF and Bayesian methods. Specifically, the BANN_100kb demonstrated superior accuracy and the BANN_gene exhibited generally suboptimal accuracy compared to GBLUP, RF, BayesB and BayesCπ across all traits. The average accuracy improvements of BANN_100kb over GBLUP, RF, BayesB and BayesCπ were 4.86%, 3.95%, 3.84% and 1.92%, and the accuracy of BANN_gene was improved by 3.75%, 2.86%, 2.73% and 0.85% compared to GBLUP, RF, BayesB and BayesCπ, respectively across all seven traits. Meanwhile, both BANN_100kb and BANN_gene yielded lower overall mean square error values than GBLUP, RF and Bayesian methods. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrated that the BANNs framework performed better than traditional genomic prediction methods in our tested scenarios, and might serve as a promising alternative approach for genomic prediction in dairy cattle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurately predicting the walking independence of stroke patients is important. Our objective was to determine and compare the performance of logistic regression (LR) and three machine learning models (eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Random Forest (RF)) in predicting walking independence at discharge in stroke patients, as well as to explore the variables that predict prognosis. Methods: 778 (80% for the training set and 20% for the test set) stroke patients admitted to China Rehabilitation Research Center between February 2020 and January 2023 were retrospectively included. The training set was used for training models. The test set was used to validate and compare the performance of the four models in terms of area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and F1 score. Results: Among the three ML models, the AUC of the XGBoost model is significantly higher than that of the SVM and RF models (P < 0.001, P = 0.024, respectively). There was no significant difference in the AUCs between the XGBoost model and the LR model (0.891 vs. 0.880, P = 0.560). The XGBoost model demonstrated superior accuracy (87.82% vs. 86.54%), sensitivity (50.00% vs. 39.39%), PPV (73.68% vs. 73.33%), NPV (89.78% vs. 87.94%), and F1 score (59.57% vs. 51.16%), with only slightly lower specificity (96.09% vs. 96.88%). Together, the XGBoost model and the stepwise LR model identified age, FMA-LE at admission, FAC at admission, and lower limb spasticity as key factors influencing independent walking. Conclusion: Overall, the XGBoost model performed best in predicting independent walking after stroke. The XGBoost and LR models together confirm that age, admission FMA-LE, admission FAC, and lower extremity spasticity are the key factors influencing independent walking in stroke patients at hospital discharge. Trial registration: Not applicable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The monitoring and analysis of quasi-periodic biological signals such as electrocardiography (ECG), intracranial pressure (ICP), and cerebral blood flow velocity (CBFV) waveforms plays an important role in the early detection of adverse patient events and contributes to improved care management in the intensive care unit (ICU). This work quantitatively evaluates existing computational frameworks for automatically extracting peaks within ICP waveforms. Methods: Peak detection techniques based on state-of-the-art machine learning models were evaluated in terms of robustness to varying noise levels. The evaluation was performed on a dataset of ICP signals assembled from 700 h of monitoring from 64 neurosurgical patients. The groundtruth of the peak locations was established manually on a subset of 13, 611 pulses. Additional evaluation was performed using a simulated dataset of ICP with controlled temporal dynamics and noise. Results: The quantitative analysis of peak detection algorithms applied to individual waveforms indicates that most techniques provide acceptable accuracy with a mean absolute error (MAE) ≤ 10 ms without noise. In the presence of a higher noise level, however, only kernel spectral regression and random forest remain below that error threshold while the performance of other techniques deteriorates. Our experiments also demonstrated that tracking methods such as Bayesian inference and long short-term memory (LSTM) can be applied continuously and provide additional robustness in situations where single pulse analysis methods fail, such as missing data. Conclusion: While machine learning-based peak detection methods require manually labeled data for training, these models outperform conventional signal processing ones based on handcrafted rules and should be considered for peak detection in modern frameworks. In particular, peak tracking methods that incorporate temporal information between successive periods of the signals have demonstrated in our experiments to provide more robustness to noise and temporary artifacts that commonly arise as part of the monitoring setup in the clinical setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Left ventricular enlargement (LVE) is a common manifestation of cardiac remodeling that is closely associated with cardiac dysfunction, heart failure (HF), and arrhythmias. This study aimed to propose a machine learning (ML)-based strategy to identify LVE in HF patients by means of pulse wave signals. Method: We constructed two high-quality pulse wave datasets comprising a non-LVE group and an LVE group based on the 264 HF patients. Fourier series calculations were employed to determine if significant frequency differences existed between the two datasets, thereby ensuring their validity. Then, the ML-based identification was undertaken by means of classification and regression models: a weighted random forest model was employed for binary classification of the datasets, and a densely connected convolutional network was utilized to directly estimate the left ventricular diastolic diameter index (LVDdI) through regression. Finally, the accuracy of the two models was validated by comparing their results with clinical measurements, using accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) to assess their capability for identifying LVE patients. Results: The classification model exhibited superior performance with an accuracy of 0.91 and an AUC-ROC of 0.93. The regression model achieved an accuracy of 0.88 and an AUC-ROC of 0.89, indicating that both models can quickly and accurately identify LVE in HF patients. Conclusion: The proposed ML methods are verified to achieve effective classification and regression with good performance for identifying LVE in HF patients based on pulse wave signals. This study thus demonstrates the feasibility and potential of the ML-based strategy for clinical practice while offering an effective and robust tool for diagnosing and intervening ventricular remodeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Surgery in geriatric patients often poses risk of major postoperative complications. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication following noncardiac surgery and is associated with increased mortality. Early identification of geriatric patients at high risk of AKI could facilitate preventive measures and improve patient prognosis. This study used machine learning methods to identify important features and predict AKI following noncardiac surgery in geriatric patients. Methods: The data for this study were obtained from a prospective cohort. Patients aged ≥ 65 years who received noncardiac surgery from June 2019 to December 2021 were enrolled. Data were split into training set (from June 2019 to March 2021) and internal validation set (from April 2021 to December 2021) by time. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization algorithm and the random forest recursive feature elimination algorithm (RF-RFE) were used to screen important predictors. Models were trained through extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest, and LASSO. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) package was used to interpret the machine learning model. Results: The training set included 6753 geriatric patients. Of these, 250 (3.70%) patients developed AKI. The XGBoost model with RF-RFE selected features outperformed other models with an area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.505 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.369–0.626) and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.806 (95%CI: 0.733–0.875). The model incorporated ten predictors, including operation site and hypertension. The internal validation set included 3808 geriatric patients, and 96 (2.52%) patients developed AKI. The model maintained good predictive performance with an AUPRC of 0.431 (95%CI: 0.331–0.524) and an AUROC of 0.845 (95%CI: 0.796–0.888) in the internal validation. Conclusions: This study developed a simple machine learning model and a web calculator for predicting AKI following noncardiac surgery in geriatric patients. This model may be a valuable tool for guiding preventive measures and improving patient prognosis. Trial registration: The protocol of this study was approved by the Committee of Ethics from West China Hospital of Sichuan University (2019–473) with a waiver of informed consent and registered at www.chictr.org.cn (ChiCTR1900025160, 15/08/2019). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Enhancing Local Control (LC) of brain metastases is pivotal for improving overall survival, which makes the prediction of local treatment failure a crucial aspect of treatment planning. Understanding the factors that influence LC of brain metastases is imperative for optimizing treatment strategies and subsequently extending overall survival. Machine learning algorithms may help to identify factors that predict outcomes. Methods: This paper systematically reviews these factors associated with LC to select candidate predictor features for a practical application of predictive modeling. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies in which the LC of brain metastases is assessed for adult patients. EMBASE, PubMed, Web-of-Science, and the Cochrane Database were searched up to December 24, 2020. All studies investigating the LC of brain metastases as one of the endpoints were included, regardless of primary tumor type or treatment type. We first grouped studies based on primary tumor types resulting in lung, breast, and melanoma groups. Studies that did not focus on a specific primary cancer type were grouped based on treatment types resulting in surgery, SRT, and whole-brain radiotherapy groups. For each group, significant factors associated with LC were identified and discussed. As a second project, we assessed the practical importance of selected features in predicting LC after Stereotactic Radiotherapy (SRT) with a Random Forest machine learning model. Accuracy and Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Random Forest model, trained with the list of factors that were found to be associated with LC for the SRT treatment group, were reported. Results: The systematic literature search identified 6270 unique records. After screening titles and abstracts, 410 full texts were considered, and ultimately 159 studies were included for review. Most of the studies focused on the LC of the brain metastases for a specific primary tumor type or after a specific treatment type. Higher SRT radiation dose was found to be associated with better LC in lung cancer, breast cancer, and melanoma groups. Also, a higher dose was associated with better LC in the SRT group, while higher tumor volume was associated with worse LC in this group. The Random Forest model predicted the LC of brain metastases with an accuracy of 80% and an AUC of 0.84. Conclusion: This paper thoroughly examines factors associated with LC in brain metastases and highlights the translational value of our findings for selecting variables to predict LC in a sample of patients who underwent SRT. The prediction model holds great promise for clinicians, offering a valuable tool to predict personalized treatment outcomes and foresee the impact of changes in treatment characteristics such as radiation dose. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Because spontaneous remission is common in IMN, and there are adverse effects of immunosuppressive therapy, it is important to assess the risk of progressive loss of renal function before deciding whether and when to initiate immunosuppressive therapy. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a risk prediction model to predict patient prognosis and treatment response to help clinicians evaluate patient prognosis and decide on the best treatment regimen. Methods: From September 2019 to December 2020, a total of 232 newly diagnosed IMN patients from three hospitals in Liaoning Province were enrolled. Logistic regression analysis selected the risk factors affecting the prognosis, and a dynamic online nomogram prognostic model was constructed based on extreme gradient boost, random forest, logistic regression machine learning algorithms. Receiver operating characteristic and calibration curves and decision curve analysis were utilized to assess the performance and clinical utility of the developed model. Results: A total of 130 patients were in the training cohort and 102 patients in the validation cohort. Logistic regression analysis identified four risk factors: course ≥ 6 months, UTP, D-dimer and sPLA2R-Ab. The random forest algorithm showed the best performance with the highest AUROC (0.869). The nomogram had excellent discrimination ability, calibration ability and clinical practicability in both the training cohort and the validation cohort. Conclusions: The dynamic online nomogram model can effectively assess the prognosis and treatment response of IMN patients. This will help clinicians assess the patient's prognosis more accurately, communicate with the patient in advance, and jointly select the most appropriate treatment plan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Obstructive sleep apnea hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS) is a common disease that can cause multiple organ damage in the whole body. Our aim was to use machine learning (ML) to build an independent polysomnography (PSG) model to analyze risk factors and predict OSAHS. Materials and methods: Clinical data of 2064 snoring patients who underwent physical examination in the Health Management Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from July 2018 to July 2023 were retrospectively collected, involving 24 characteristic variables. Then they were randomly divided into training group and verification group according to the ratio of 7:3. By analyzing the importance of these features, it was concluded that LDL-C, Cr, common carotid artery plaque, A1c and BMI made major contributions to OSAHS. Moreover, five kinds of machine learning algorithm models such as logistic regression, support vector machine, Boosting, Random Forest and MLP were further established, and cross validation was used to adjust the model hyperparameters to determine the final prediction model. We compared the accuracy, Precision, Recall rate, F1-score and AUC indexes of the model, and finally obtained that MLP was the optimal model with an accuracy of 85.80%, Precision of 0.89, Recall of 0.75, F1-score of 0.82, and AUC of 0.938. Conclusion: We established the risk prediction model of OSAHS using ML method, and proved that the MLP model performed best among the five ML models. This predictive model helps to identify patients with OSAHS and provide early, personalized diagnosis and treatment options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Salmonellosis, one of the most common foodborne infections in Europe, is monitored by food safety surveillance programmes, resulting in the generation of extensive databases. By leveraging tree-based machine learning (ML) algorithms, we exploited data from food safety audits to predict spatiotemporal patterns of salmonellosis in northwestern Italy. Data on human cases confirmed in 2015–2018 (n = 1969) and food surveillance data collected in 2014–2018 were used to develop ML algorithms. We integrated the monthly municipal human incidence with 27 potential predictors, including the observed prevalence of Salmonella in food. We applied the tree regression, random forest and gradient boosting algorithms considering different scenarios and evaluated their predictivity in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and R2. Using a similar dataset from the year 2019, spatiotemporal predictions and their relative sensitivities and specificities were obtained. Random forest and gradient boosting (R2 = 0.55, MAPE = 7.5%) outperformed the tree regression algorithm (R2 = 0.42, MAPE = 8.8%). Salmonella prevalence in food; spatial features; and monitoring efforts in ready-to-eat milk, fruits and vegetables, and pig meat products contributed the most to the models' predictivity, reducing the variance by 90.5%. Conversely, the number of positive samples obtained for specific food matrices minimally influenced the predictions (2.9%). Spatiotemporal predictions for 2019 showed sensitivity and specificity levels of 46.5% (due to the lack of some infection hotspots) and 78.5%, respectively. This study demonstrates the added value of integrating data from human and veterinary health services to develop predictive models of human salmonellosis occurrence, providing early warnings useful for mitigating foodborne disease impacts on public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The process of optimizing in vitro shoot proliferation is a complicated task, as it is influenced by interactions of many factors as well as genotype. This study investigated the role of various concentrations of plant growth regulators (zeatin and gibberellic acid) in the successful in vitro shoot proliferation of three Punica granatum cultivars ('Faroogh', 'Atabaki' and 'Shirineshahvar'). Also, the utility of five Machine Learning (ML) algorithms—Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Ensemble Stacking Regression (ESR) and Elastic Net Multivariate Linear Regression (ENMLR)—as modeling tools were evaluated on in vitro multiplication of pomegranate. A new automatic hyperparameter optimization method named Adaptive Tree Pazen Estimator (ATPE) was developed to tune the hyperparameters. The performance of the models was evaluated and compared using statistical indicators (MAE, RMSE, RRMSE, MAPE, R and R2), while a specific Global Performance Indicator (GPI) was introduced to rank the models based on a single parameter. Moreover, Non‑dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm‑II (NSGA‑II) was employed to optimize the selected prediction model. Results: The results demonstrated that the ESR algorithm exhibited higher predictive accuracy in comparison to other ML algorithms. The ESR model was subsequently introduced for optimization by NSGA‑II. ESR-NSGA‑II revealed that the highest proliferation rate (3.47, 3.84, and 3.22), shoot length (2.74, 3.32, and 1.86 cm), leave number (18.18, 19.76, and 18.77), and explant survival (84.21%, 85.49%, and 56.39%) could be achieved with a medium containing 0.750, 0.654, and 0.705 mg/L zeatin, and 0.50, 0.329, and 0.347 mg/L gibberellic acid in the 'Atabaki', 'Faroogh', and 'Shirineshahvar' cultivars, respectively. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that the 'Shirineshahvar' cultivar exhibited lower shoot proliferation success compared to the other cultivars. The results indicated the good performance of ESR-NSGA-II in modeling and optimizing in vitro propagation. ESR-NSGA-II can be applied as an up-to-date and reliable computational tool for future studies in plant in vitro culture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Early prediction of delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) is critical to improving the prognosis of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Machine learning (ML) algorithms can learn from intricate information unbiasedly and facilitate the early identification of clinical outcomes. This study aimed to construct and compare the ability of different ML models to predict DCI after aSAH. Then, we identified and analyzed the essential risk of DCI occurrence by preoperative clinical scores and postoperative laboratory test results. Methods: This was a multicenter, retrospective cohort study. A total of 1039 post-operation patients with aSAH were finally included from three hospitals in China. The training group contained 919 patients, and the test group comprised 120 patients. We used five popular machine-learning algorithms to construct the models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and f1 score were used to evaluate and compare the five models. Finally, we performed a Shapley Additive exPlanations analysis for the model with the best performance and significance analysis for each feature. Results: A total of 239 patients with aSAH (23.003%) developed DCI after the operation. Our results showed that in the test cohort, Random Forest (RF) had an AUC of 0.79, which was better than other models. The five most important features for predicting DCI in the RF model were the admitted modified Rankin Scale, D-Dimer, intracranial parenchymal hematoma, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and Fisher score. Interestingly, clamping or embolization for the aneurysm treatment was the fourth button-down risk factor in the ML model. Conclusions: In this multicenter study, we compared five ML methods, among which RF performed the best in DCI prediction. In addition, the essential risks were identified to help clinicians monitor the patients at high risk for DCI more precisely and facilitate timely intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Suicide is a complex and multifactorial public health problem. Understanding and addressing the various factors associated with suicide is crucial for prevention and intervention efforts. Machine learning (ML) could enhance the prediction of suicide attempts. Method: A systematic review was performed using PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and SID databases. We aim to evaluate the performance of ML algorithms and summarize their effects, gather relevant and reliable information to synthesize existing evidence, identify knowledge gaps, and provide a comprehensive list of the suicide risk factors using mixed method approach. Results: Forty-one studies published between 2011 and 2022, which matched inclusion criteria, were chosen as suitable. We included studies aimed at predicting the suicide risk by machine learning algorithms except natural language processing (NLP) and image processing. The neural network (NN) algorithm exhibited the lowest accuracy at 0.70, whereas the random forest demonstrated the highest accuracy, reaching 0.94. The study assessed the COX and random forest models and observed a minimum area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.54. In contrast, the XGBoost classifier yielded the highest AUC value, reaching 0.97. These specific AUC values emphasize the algorithm-specific performance in capturing the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity for suicide risk prediction. Furthermore, our investigation identified several common suicide risk factors, including age, gender, substance abuse, depression, anxiety, alcohol consumption, marital status, income, education, and occupation. This comprehensive analysis contributes valuable insights into the multifaceted nature of suicide risk, providing a foundation for targeted preventive strategies and intervention efforts. Conclusions: The effectiveness of ML algorithms and their application in predicting suicide risk has been controversial. There is a need for more studies on these algorithms in clinical settings, and the related ethical concerns require further clarification. Highlights: • Understanding various factors associated with suicide is crucial for prevention and intervention efforts. • Machine learning (ML) could enhance the prediction of suicide attempts. • The neural network (NN) algorithm exhibited the lowest accuracy of 0.70. • The random forest demonstrated the highest accuracy for suicide prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Taraxacum kok-saghyz Rodin (TKS) is a highly potential source of natural rubber (NR) due to its wide range of suitable planting areas, strong adaptability, and suitability for mechanized planting and harvesting. However, current methods for detecting NR content are relatively cumbersome, necessitating the development of a rapid detection model. This study used near-infrared spectroscopy technology to establish a rapid detection model for NR content in TKS root segments and powder samples. The K445 strain at different growth stages within a year and 129 TKS samples hybridized with dandelion were used to obtain their near-infrared spectral data. The rubber content in the root of the samples was detected using the alkaline boiling method. The Monte Carlo sampling method (MCS) was used to filter abnormal data from the root segments of TKS and powder samples, respectively. The SPXY algorithm was used to divide the training set and validation set in a 3:1 ratio. The original spectrum was preprocessed using moving window smoothing (MWS), standard normalized variate (SNV), multiplicative scatter correction (MSC), and first derivative (FD) algorithms. The competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS) algorithm and the corresponding chemical characteristic bands of NR were used to screen the bands. Partial least squares (PLS), random forest (RF), Lightweight gradient augmentation machine (LightGBM), and convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithms were employed to establish a model using the optimal spectral processing method for three different bands: full band, CARS algorithm, and chemical characteristic bands corresponding to NR. The model with the best predictive performance for high rubber content intervals (rubber content > 15%) was identified. Result: The results indicated that the optimal rubber content prediction models for TKS root segments and powder samples were MWS–FD CASR–RF and MWS–FD chemical characteristic band RF, respectively. Their respective R P 2 , RMSEP, and RPDP values were 0.951, 0.979, 1.814, 1.133, 4.498, and 6.845. In the high rubber content range, the model based on the LightGBM algorithm had the best prediction performance, with the RMSEP of the root segments and powder samples being 0.752 and 0.918, respectively. Conclusions: This research indicates that dried TKS root powder samples are more appropriate for constructing a rubber content prediction model than segmented samples, and the predictive capability of root powder samples is superior to that of root segmented samples. Especially in the elevated rubber content range, the model formulated using the LightGBM algorithm has superior predictive performance, which could offer a theoretical basis for the rapid detection technology of TKS content in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The frequency of anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) has increased up to 400% since 2011, underscoring the need to preoperatively anticipate adverse postoperative outcomes given the procedure's expanding use. Our study aims to accomplish two goals: firstly, to develop a suite of explainable machine learning (ML) models capable of predicting adverse postoperative outcomes following ACDF surgery, and secondly, to embed these models in a user-friendly web application, demonstrating their potential utility. Methods: We utilized data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database to identify patients who underwent ACDF surgery. The outcomes of interest were four short-term postoperative adverse outcomes: prolonged length of stay (LOS), non-home discharges, 30-day readmissions, and major complications. We utilized five ML algorithms - TabPFN, TabNET, XGBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest - coupled with the Optuna optimization library for hyperparameter tuning. To bolster the interpretability of our models, we employed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for evaluating predictor variables' relative importance and used partial dependence plots to illustrate the impact of individual variables on the predictions generated by our top-performing models. We visualized model performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and precision-recall curves (PRC). Quantitative metrics calculated were the area under the ROC curve (AUROC), balanced accuracy, weighted area under the PRC (AUPRC), weighted precision, and weighted recall. Models with the highest AUROC values were selected for inclusion in a web application. Results: The analysis included 57,760 patients for prolonged LOS [11.1% with prolonged LOS], 57,780 for non-home discharges [3.3% non-home discharges], 57,790 for 30-day readmissions [2.9% readmitted], and 57,800 for major complications [1.4% with major complications]. The top-performing models, which were the ones built with the Random Forest algorithm, yielded mean AUROCs of 0.776, 0.846, 0.775, and 0.747 for predicting prolonged LOS, non-home discharges, readmissions, and complications, respectively. Conclusions: Our study employs advanced ML methodologies to enhance the prediction of adverse postoperative outcomes following ACDF. We designed an accessible web application to integrate these models into clinical practice. Our findings affirm that ML tools serve as vital supplements in risk stratification, facilitating the prediction of diverse outcomes and enhancing patient counseling for ACDF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to elucidate the biological functions of ferroptosis-related genes in periodontitis, along with their correlation to tumor microenvironment (TME) features such as immune infiltration. It aims to provide potential diagnostic markers of ferroptosis for clinical management of periodontitis. Methods: Utilizing the periodontitis-related microarray dataset GSE16134 from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and a set of 528 ferroptosis-related genes identified in prior studies, this research unveils differentially expressed ferroptosis-related genes in periodontitis. Subsequently, a protein–protein interaction network was constructed. Subtyping of periodontitis was explored, followed by validation through immune cell infiltration and gene set enrichment analyses. Two algorithms, randomForest and SVM(Support Vector Machine), were employed to reveal potential ferroptosis diagnostic markers for periodontitis. The diagnostic efficacy, immune correlation, and potential transcriptional regulatory networks of these markers were further assessed. Finally, potential targeted drugs for differentially expressed ferroptosis markers in periodontitis were predicted. Results: A total of 36 ferroptosis-related genes (30 upregulated, 6 downregulated) were identified from 829 differentially expressed genes between 9 periodontitis samples and the control group. Subsequent machine learning algorithm screening highlighted 4 key genes: SLC1A5(Solute Carrier Family 1 Member 5), SLC2A14(Solute Carrier Family 1 Member 14), LURAP1L(Leucine Rich Adaptor Protein 1 Like), and HERPUD1(Homocysteine Inducible ER Protein With Ubiquitin Like Domain 1). Exploration of these 4 key genes, supported by time-correlated ROC analysis, demonstrated reliability, while immune infiltration results indicated a strong correlation between key genes and immune factors. Furthermore, Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) was conducted for the four key genes, revealing enrichment in GO/KEGG pathways that have a significant impact on periodontitis. Finally, the study predicted potential transcriptional regulatory networks and targeted drugs associated with these key genes in periodontitis. Conclusions: The ferroptosis-related genes identified in this study, including SLC1A5, SLC2A14, LURAP1L, and HERPUD1, may serve as novel diagnostic and therapeutic targets for periodontitis. They are likely involved in the occurrence and development of periodontitis through mechanisms such as immune infiltration, cellular metabolism, and inflammatory chemotaxis, potentially linking the ferroptosis pathway to the progression of periodontitis. Targeted drugs such as flurofamide, L-733060, memantine, tetrabenazine, and WAY-213613 hold promise for potential therapeutic interventions in periodontitis associated with these ferroptosis-related genes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]