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In high-elevation areas in western Kenya, the abundance of Anopheles arabiensis is either very low or absent. The western Kenya highlands (an area with an elevation > 1,500m above sea level) have also been experiencing extensive deforestation, and deforestation has been suggested as one of the important factors that facilitate malaria transmission in the highlands. This study investigated whether climate conditions in the western Kenya highlands (Kakamega, elevation 1,500 m above sea level) were permissive to the development and survival of An. arabiensis and whether deforestation promoted An. arabiensis survivorship of immature and adult stages, using life-table analysis. We found that in larval habitats located in forested areas, only 4-9% of first-instar larvae developed into adults and the development length exceeded 20 days. Mean water temperature of aquatic habitats in the deforested area was 4.8-6.1 degrees C higher than that in the forested area, larval-to-adult survivorship was increased to 65-82%, and larval-to-adult development time was shortened by 8-9 days. The average indoor temperature in houses in the deforested area was 1.7-1.8 degrees C higher than in the forested area, and the relative humidity was 22-25% lower. The median survival time of adult mosquitoes in the deforested area was 49-55% higher than those in the forested area. The net reproductive rate of female mosquitoes in the deforested area was 1.7- to 2.6-fold higher than that in the forested area. Compared with previously published data on An. gambiae, the net reproductive rate of An. arabiensis was only 0.8-1.3% of Anopheles gambiae in the forested area and 2.3-2.6% in the deforested area. Therefore, the current ambient climate condition is less permissive to An. arabiensis than to An. gambiae in western Kenya highlands. However, environmental changes such as deforestation and global warming may facilitate the establishment of An. arabiensis populations in the highlands.

Land use changes have been suggested as one of the causes for malaria epidemics in the African highlands. This study investigated the effects of deforestation-induced changes in indoor temperature on the survivorship and reproductive fitness of Anopheles gambiae in an epidemic prone area in the western Kenya highlands. We found that the mean indoor temperatures of houses located in the deforested area were 1.2 degrees C higher than in houses located in the forested area during the dry season and 0.7 degrees C higher during the rainy season. The mosquito mortality rate was highly age-dependent regardless of study site or season. Mosquitoes that were placed in houses in the deforested area showed a 64.8-79.5% higher fecundity than those in houses located in the forested area, but the median survival time was reduced by 5-7 days. Female mosquitoes in the deforested area showed a 38.5-40.6% increase in net reproductive rate and an 11.6-42.9% increase in intrinsic growth rate than those in the forested area. Significant increases in net reproductive rate and intrinsic growth rate for mosquitoes in the deforested area suggest that deforestation enhances mosquito reproductive fitness, increasing mosquito population growth potential in the western Kenya highlands. The vectorial capacity of An. gambiae under study was estimated at least 106% and 29% higher in the deforested area than in the forested area in dry and rainy seasons, respectively.