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Objectives. This study identified high school seniors at low, moderate, and high risk for cigarette use to examine changes in the prevalence of daily smoking within risk groups from 1976 to 1995. Methods. Data were taken from the Monitoring the Future Project's national surveys of high school seniors. Risk classification was based on grade- point average, truancy, nights out per week, and religious commitment. Logistic regression models were used to estimate trends for all seniors and separately for White (n = 244 221), African American (n = 41 005), and Hispanic (n = 18 457) male and female subgroups. Results. Risk group distribution (low=45%, moderate = 30%, high = 25%) changed little over time. Between 1976 and 1990, greater absolute declines in smoking occurred among high-risk students (17 percentage points) than among low-risk students (6 percentage points). Particularly large declines occurred among high-risk African Americans and Hispanics. Smoking increased in all risk groups in the 1990s. conclusions. Among high school seniors, a large part of the overall change in smoking occurred among high-risk youth. Policies and programs to reduce smoking among youth must have broad appeal, especially to those at the higher end of the risk spectrum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. The US armed forces adopted "zero tolerance" policies concerning illicit drug use in 1980 and later developed policies to discourage tobacco and alcohol abuse. This article examines drug use among young active-duty recruits both before and after enlistment, compared with non- military age-mates, and documents historical shifts in such drug use across 2 decades. Methods. Analyses employed longitudinal panel data from 20 nationally representative samples of high school seniors (cohorts of 1976-1995), each surveyed just before graduation and again within 2 years. Separate analyses for men (n = 12082) and women (n = 15 345) contrasted those who entered military service, college, and civilian employment. Results. Illicit drug use declined more among young military recruits than among their civilian counterparts. Analyses of male recruits at multiple time periods showed (1) declines in the prevalence of marijuana use and cocaine use after the initiation of routine military drug testing and (2) lower proportions of smokers of half a pack or more of cigarettes per day who entered service after the initiation of tobacco bans during basic training. conclusions. Recent military drug policies appear to deter illicit drug use among enlistees and discourage some smokers from enlisting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective. We examined the relationship between state-level tobacco control expenditures and youth smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption. Methods. We estimated a 2-part model of cigarette demand using data from the 1991 through 2000 nationally representative surveys of 8th-, 10th-, and 12th-grade students as part of the Monitoring the Future project. Results. We found that real per capita expenditures on tobacco control had a negative and significant impact on youth smoking prevalence and on the average number of cigarettes smoked by smokers. Conclusions. Had states represented by the Monitoring the Future sample and the District of Columbia spent the minimum amount of money recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the prevalence of smoking among youths would have been between 3.3% and 13.5% lower than the rate we observed over this period. (Am J Public Health. 2005;95:338-344.). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]