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Most climate models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) still suffer pronounced warm and dry summer biases in the central United States (CUS), even in high-resolution simulations. We found that the cloud base definition in the cumulus parameterization was the dominant factor determining the spread of the biases among models and those defining cloud base at the lifting condensation level (LCL) performed the best. To identify the underlying mechanisms, we developed a physically based analytical bias model (ABM) to capture the key feedback processes of land–atmosphere coupling. The ABM has significant explanatory power, capturing 80% variance of temperature and precipitation biases among all models. Our ABM analysis via counterfactual experiments indicated that the biases are attributed mostly by surface downwelling longwave radiation errors and second by surface net shortwave radiation errors, with the former 2–5 times larger. The effective radiative forcing from these two errors as weighted by their relative contributions induces runaway temperature and precipitation feedbacks, which collaborate to cause CUS summer warm and dry biases. The LCL cumulus reduces the biases through two key mechanisms: it produces more clouds and less precipitable water, which reduce radiative energy input for both surface heating and evapotranspiration to cause a cooler and wetter soil; it produces more rainfall and wetter soil conditions, which suppress the positive evapotranspiration–precipitation feedback to damp the warm and dry bias coupling. Most models using non-LCL schemes underestimate both precipitation and cloud amounts, which amplify the positive feedback to cause significant biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most climate models still suffer large warm and dry summer biases in the central United States (CUS). As a solution, we improved cumulus parameterization to represent 1) the lifting effect of small-scale rising motions associated with Great Plains low-level jets and midtropospheric perturbations by defining the cloud base at the level of condensation, 2) the constraint of the cumulus entrainment rate depending on the boundary layer depth, and 3) the temperature-dependent cloud-to-rainwater conversion rate. These improvements acted to (i) trigger mesoscale convective systems in unfavorable environmental conditions to enhance total rainfall amount, (ii) lower cloud base and increase cloud depth to increase low-level clouds and reduce surface shortwave radiation, (iii) suppress penetrative cumuli from shallow boundary layers to remedy the overestimation of precipitation frequency, and (iv) increase water detrainment to form sufficient cirrus clouds and balanced outgoing longwave radiation. Much of these effects were nonlocal and nonlinear, where more frequent but weaker convective rainfall led to stronger (and sometimes more frequent) large-scale precipitation remotely. Together, they produced consistently heavier precipitation and colder temperature with a realistic atmospheric energy balance, essentially eliminating the CUS warm and dry biases through robust physical mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the dependence of surface albedo on solar zenith angle (SZA) over snow-free land surfaces using the intensive observations of surface shortwave fluxes made by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) in 1997-2005. Results are used to evaluate the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast Systems (GFS) parameterization and several new parameterizations derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products. The influence of clouds on surface albedo and the albedo difference between morning and afternoon observations are also investigated. A new approach is taken to partition the observed upward flux so that the direct-beam and diffuse albedos can be separately computed. The study focused first on the ARM Southern Great Plains Central Facility site. It is found that the diffuse albedo prescribed in the NCEP GFS matched closely with the observations. The direct-beam albedo parameterized in the GFS is largely underestimated at all SZAs. The parameterizations derived from the MODIS product underestimated the direct-beam albedo at large SZAs and slightly overestimated it at small SZAs. Similar results are obtained from the analyses of observations at other stations. It is also found that the morning and afternoon dependencies of direct-beam albedo on SZA differ among the stations. Attempts are made to improve numerical model algorithms that parameterize the direct-beam albedo as a product of the direct-beam albedo at SZA = 60[degrees] (or the diffuse albedo), which varies with surface type or geographical location and/or season, and a function that depends only on SZA. A method is presented for computing the direct-beam albedos over these snow-free land points without referring to a particular land-cover classification scheme, which often differs from model to model.

Future projections of near-surface ozone concentrations depend on the climate/emissions scenario used to drive future simulations, the direct effects of the changing climate on the atmosphere, and the indirect effects of changing temperatures and C[O.sub.2] levels on biogenic ozone precursor emissions. The authors investigate the influence of these factors on potential future changes in summertime daily 8-h maximum ozone over the United States and China by comparing Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4, (MOZART-2.4) simulations for the period 1996-2000 with 2095-99, using climate projections from NCAR--Department of Energy Parallel Climate Model simulations driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Alfi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios, with corresponding changes in biogenic emissions. The effect of projected climate changes alone on surface ozone is generally less than 3 ppb over most regions. Regional ozone increases and decreases are driven mainly by local warming and marine air dilution enhancement, respectively. Changes are approximately the same magnitude under both scenarios, although spatial patterns of responses differ. Projected increases in isoprene emissions (32%-94% over both countries), however, result in significantly greater changes in surface ozone. Increases of 1-15 ppb are found under Alfi and of 0-7 ppb are found under B1. These increases not only raise the frequency of 'high ozone days,' but are also projected to occur nearly uniformly across the distribution of daily ozone maxima. Thus, projected future ozone changes appear to be more sensitive to changes in biogenic emissions than to direct climate changes, and the spatial patterns and magnitude of future ozone changes depend strongly on the future emissions scenarios used.

Different cumulus schemes cause significant discrepancies in simulated precipitation, cloud cover, and temperature, which in turn lead to remarkable differences in simulated biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and surface ozone concentrations. As part of an effort to investigate the impact (and its uncertainty) of climate changes on U.S. air quality, this study evaluates the sensitivity of BVOC emissions and surface ozone concentrations to the Grell (GR) and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterizations. Overall, using the KF scheme yields less cloud cover, larger incident solar radiation, warmer surface temperature, and higher boundary layer height and hence generates more BVOC emissions than those using the GR scheme. As a result, the KF (versus GR) scheme produces more than 10 ppb of summer mean daily maximum 8-h ozone concentration over broad regions, resulting in a doubling of the number of high-ozone occurrences. The contributions of meteorological conditions versus BVOC emissions on regional ozone sensitivities to the choice of the cumulus scheme largely offset each other in the California and Texas regions, but the contrast in BVOC emissions dominates over that in the meteorological conditions for ozone differences in the Midwest and Northeast regions. The result demonstrates the necessity of considering the uncertainty of future ozone projections that are identified with alternative model physics configurations.

The impacts of air pollution on the environment and human health could increase as a result of potential climate change. To assess such possible changes, model simulations of pollutant concentrations need to be performed at climatic (seasonal) rather than episodic (days) time scales, using future climate projections from a general circulation model. Such a modeling system was employed here, consisting of a regional climate model (RCM), an emissions model, and an air quality model. To assess overall model performance with one-way coupling, this system was used to simulate tropospheric ozone concentrations in the midwestern and northeastern United States for summer seasons between 1995 and 2000. The RCM meteorological conditions were driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy global reanalysis (R-2) using the same procedure that integrates future climate model projections. Based on analyses for several urban and rural areas and regional domains, fairly good agreement with observations was found for the diurnal cycle and for several multiday periods of high ozone episodes. Even better agreement occurred between monthly and seasonal mean quantities of observed and model-simulated values. This is consistent with an RCM designed primarily to produce good simulations of monthly and seasonal mean statistics of weather systems.

The representation of subgrid horizontal and vertical variability of clouds in radiation schemes remains a major challenge for general circulation models (GCMs) due to the lack of cloud-scale observations and incomplete physical understanding. The development of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) in the last decade provides a unique opportunity to make progress in this area of research. This paper extends the study of Wu and Moncrieff to quantify separately the impacts of cloud horizontal inhomogeneity (optical property) and vertical overlap (geometry) on the domain-averaged shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and the surface, and the radiative heating profiles. The diagnostic radiation calculations using the monthlong CRM-simulated tropical cloud optical properties and cloud fraction show that both horizontal inhomogeneity and vertical overlap of clouds are equally important for obtaining accurate radiative fluxes and heating rates. This study illustrates an objective approach to use long-term CRM simulations to separate cloud overlap and inhomogeneity effects, based on which GCM representation (such as mosaic treatment) of subgrid cloud radiation interactions can be evaluated and improved.

A method was developed to identify the occurrence of lake-breeze events-along the eastern, western, and both shores of Lake Michigan during a 15-yr period (1982-96). Comparison with detailed observations from May through September of 1996-97 showed that the method reasonably identified Lake Michigan lake-breeze events. The method also demonstrated the important ability to distinguish non-lake-breeze events; a problem experienced by previously developed lake-breeze criteria. Analyses of the 15-yr climatological data indicated that lake breezes tended to occur more frequently along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan than along the western shore. On average, a maximum number of lake-breeze events occurred during August at each location. This maximum is most closely associated with weaker monthly average wind speeds. Even though the air-lake temperature difference AT provides the local forcing for the development of the lake-breeze circulation, large temperature differences are not required. Nearly 70% of all events occurred with a daytime maximum [Delta]T [is less than or equal to] 12 [degrees] C. The evaluation of a lake-breeze index [Epsilon] used in past studies and many forecasting applications showed indices computed using offshore or shore-perpendicular wind speeds (U or |U|, respectively) at inland sites resolved [is greater than or equal to] 95% of identified events based on critical [Epsilon] values of 2-6. When wind speed, irrespective of wind direction, was used to calculate [Epsilon], the success of the critical indices decreased by as much as 26%. Results also showed that the lake-breeze index has a considerable tendency to overestimate the number of events. Although the possibility was suggested by previous investigations, the critical value of [Epsilon] may not be appreciably affected by changes in location along the shoreline. In addition, noteworthy differences in the position of synoptic-scale sea level pressure and wind fields with respect to Lake Michigan were found to occur during eastern, western, and both-shore lake-breeze events.