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Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) numerical model output was compared with the meteorological data from an enhanced observational network to investigate the model’s ability to predict Lake Ontario lake breezes and their characteristics for two cases in the Greater Toronto Area—one in which the large-scale wind opposed the lake breeze and one in which it was in the same direction as the lake breeze. An enhanced observational network of surface meteorological stations, a C-band radar, and two Doppler wind lidars were deployed among other sensors during the 2015 Pan and Parapan American Games in Toronto. The GEM model was run for three nested domains with grid spacings of 2.5, 1, and 0.25 km. Comparisons between the model predictions and ground-based observations showed that the model successfully predicted lake breezes for the two events. The results indicated that using GEM 1 and 0.25 km increased the forecast accuracy of the lake-breeze location, updraft intensity, and depth. The accuracy of the modeled lake breeze timing was approximately ±135 min. The model underpredicted the surface cooling caused by the lake breeze. The GEM 0.25-km model significantly improved the temperature forecast accuracy during the lake-breeze circulations, reducing the bias by up to 72%, but it mainly underpredicted the moisture and overpredicted the surface wind speed. Root-mean-square errors of wind direction forecasts were generally high because of large biases and high variability of errors.

The Pan and Parapan American Games (PA15) are the third largest sporting event in the world and were held in Toronto in the summer of 2015 (10–26 July and 7–15 August). This was used as an opportunity to coordinate and showcase existing innovative research and development activities related to weather, air quality (AQ), and health at Environment and Climate Change Canada. New observational technologies included weather stations based on compact sensors that were augmented with black globe thermometers, two Doppler lidars, two wave buoys, a 3D lightning mapping array, two new AQ stations, and low-cost AQ and ultraviolet sensors. These were supplemented by observations from other agencies, four mobile vehicles, two mobile AQ laboratories, and two supersites with enhanced vertical profiling. High-resolution modeling for weather (250 m and 1 km), AQ (2.5 km), lake circulation (2 km), and wave models (250-m, 1-km, and 2.5-km ensembles) were run. The focus of the science, which guided the design of the observation network, was to characterize and investigate the lake breeze, which affects thunderstorm initiation, air pollutant transport, and heat stress. Experimental forecasts and nowcasts were provided by research support desks. Web portals provided access to the experimental products for other government departments, public health authorities, and PA15 decision-makers. The data have been released through the government of Canada’s Open Data Portal and as a World Meteorological Organization’s Global Atmospheric Watch Urban Research Meteorology and Environment dataset.

There are numerous water features on the Canadian landscapes that are not monitored. Specifically, there are water bodies over the prairies and Canadian shield regions of North America that are ephemeral in nature and could have a significant influence on convective storm generation and local weather patterns through turbulent exchanges of sensible and latent heat between the land and the atmosphere. In this study a series of numerical experiments is performed with Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model at 2.5-km grid spacing to examine the sensitivity of the atmospheric boundary layer and the resulting precipitation to the presence of open water bodies. Operationally, the land–water fraction in GEM is specified by means of static geophysical databases that do not change with time. Uncertainty is introduced in this study into this land–water fraction and the sensitivity of the resulting precipitation is quantified for a convective precipitation event occurring over the Canadian Prairies in the summer of 2014. The results indicate that with an increase in open water bodies, accumulated precipitation, peak precipitation amounts, and intensities decrease. Moreover, shifts are seen in times of peak for both precipitation amounts and intensities, in the order of increasing wetness. Additionally, with an increase in open water bodies, convective available potential energy decreases and convective inhibition increases, indicating suppression of forcing for convective precipitation.

Numerical weather prediction is moving toward the representation of finescale processes such as the interactions between the sea-breeze flow and urban processes. This study investigates the ability and necessity of using kilometer- to subkilometer-scale numerical simulations with the Canadian urban modeling system over the complex urban coastal area of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, during a sea-breeze event. Observations over the densely urbanized areas, collected from the Environmental Prediction in Canadian Cities (EPiCC) network and from satellite imagery, are used to evaluate several aspects of the urban boundary layer features simulated in three model configurations with different grid spacings (2.5 km, 1 km, and 250 m). In agreement with the observations, results from the numerical experiments with 1-km and 250-m grid spacings suggest that two sea-breeze flows converge over the residential areas of Vancouver. The resulting convergence line oscillates around the hill ridge, depending on thermal contrast and flow strength. This propagation mode impacts the growing urban boundary layer, with the presence of subsidence and entrainment events. Urban-induced circulation is superimposed with the sea-breeze circulation and realistically slows down the propagation of the sea-breeze front to the south. A clear improvement is obtained for numerical experiments with 1-km instead of 2.5-km grid spacing. The use of subkilometer grid spacing provides a more detailed representation of the surface thermal forcing and of local circulations, with results more sensitive to the airflow variability and, thus, to the location of measurement sites. Joint analyses of kilometer- and subkilometer-scale numerical experiments are thus recommended for different environmental applications.

The influence of soil moisture on the surface-layer atmosphere is examined in this paper by analyzing the outputs of model simulations for different initial soil moisture configurations, with particular emphasis on urban microclimate. In addition to a control case, four different soil moisture distributions within the urban and surrounding rural areas are considered in this study. Outputs from the Global Environmental Multiscale atmospheric model simulations are compared with observations from the Joint Urban 2003 experiment held in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and the relevant conclusions drawn in this paper are therefore valid for similar medium-size cities. In general, high soil moisture is found to be associated with colder near-surface temperature and lower near-surface wind speed, whereas drier soil resulted in warmer temperatures and enhanced low-level wind. Relative to urban soil moisture content, rural soil conditions are predicted to have larger impacts on both rural and urban surface-layer meteorological conditions. Dry rural and wet urban soil configurations are shown to have a strong influence on the urban–rural temperature contrast and resulted in city-induced secondary circulations that considerably affect the near-surface wind speed. Dry rural soil in particular is found to intensify the nocturnal low-level jet and significantly affect the thermal stability of nocturnal near-neutral urban surface layer by altering both thermal and mechanical generation of turbulence.

The Canadian urban and land surface external modeling system (known as urban GEM-SURF) has been developed to provide surface and near-surface meteorological variables to improve numerical weather prediction and to become a tool for environmental applications. The system is based on the Town Energy Balance model for the built-up covers and on the Interactions between the Surface, Biosphere, and Atmosphere land surface model for the natural covers. It is driven by coarse-resolution forecasts from the 15-km Canadian regional operational model. This new system was tested for a 120-m grid-size computational domain covering the Montreal metropolitan region from 1 May to 30 September 2008. The numerical results were first evaluated against local observations of the surface energy budgets, air temperature, and humidity taken at the Environmental Prediction in Canadian Cities (EPiCC) field experiment tower sites. As compared with the regional deterministic 15-km model, important improvements have been achieved with this system over urban and suburban sites. GEM-SURF’s ability to simulate the Montreal surface urban heat island was also investigated, and the radiative surface temperatures from this system and from two systems operational at the Meteorological Service of Canada were compared, that is, the 15-km regional deterministic model and the so-called limited-area model with 2.5-km grid size. Comparison of urban GEM-SURF outputs with remotely sensed observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reveals relatively good agreement for urban and natural areas.

The Montreal Urban Snow Experiment was dedicated to furthering the understanding of micrometeorological processes involved in the late winter–early spring transition period in a Canadian city. A surface energy budget (SEB) measurement site was installed in a dense residential area of Montreal for several weeks in 2005 and 2006. This paper focuses on the last 6 days of the 2006 experiment (23–28 March 2006), after snowmelt and before vegetation became active, with the objectives of providing a better understanding of physical processes involved during this transition period and examining their impact on the SEB. The Town Energy Balance urban canopy model and the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere force–restore land surface model are used in stand-alone mode and are forced with meteorological data measured at the top of a 20-m AGL instrumented tower. Preliminary results reveal deficiencies in the models’ ability to simulate the surface energy budget partitioning, and in particular show overestimation of the sensible heat flux. Sensitivity studies indicate that a large portion of these problems is related to the latent heat transfer involved in natural soil freeze/thaw processes, which has a significant effect on the surface energy budget in this urban area. It is also found that the SEB in this particular situation is very sensitive to the thermal roughness length used for local energy exchange over the roof and road surfaces.