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Salt mixing enables the transport of water between the inflow and outflow layers of estuarine circulation and therefore closes the circulation by driving a diahaline exchange flow. A recently derived universal law links the salt mixing inside an estuarine volume bounded by an isohaline surface to freshwater discharge: it states that on long-term average, the area-integrated mixing across the bounding isohaline is directly proportional to the freshwater discharge entering the estuary. However, even though numerous studies predict that periods of extreme discharge will become more frequent with climate change, the direct impact of such periods on estuarine mixing and circulation has yet to be investigated. Therefore, this numerical modeling study focuses on salinity mixing and diahaline exchange flows during a low-discharge and an extreme high-discharge period. To this end, we apply a realistic numerical setup of the Elbe estuary in northern Germany, using curvilinear coordinates that follow the navigational channel. This is the first time the direct relationship between diahaline exchange flow and salt mixing as well as the spatial distribution of the diahaline exchange flow is shown in a realistic tidal setup. The spatial distribution is highly correlated with the local mixing gradient for salinity, such that inflow occurs near the bottom at the upstream end of the isohaline. Meanwhile, outflow occurs near the surface at its downstream end. Last, increased vertical stratification occurs within the estuary during the high-discharge period, while estuarine-wide mixing strongly converges to the universal law for averaging periods of the discharge event time scale. Significance Statement: Inside estuaries, such as river mouths, terrestrial freshwater is mixed with salty ocean water. This is accompanied by an estuarine circulation with inflow of saltwater into the estuary and outflow of brackish water toward the ocean. Here, we aim to better understand how salt mixing and estuarine circulation in a tidal estuary react to periods of extreme freshwater discharge. We find that even during extremely high or low discharge, salt mixing follows the freshwater discharge on time scales as short as days, and that estuarine circulation patterns are largely explained by the local distribution of mixing. As extreme runoff events are likely to occur more often with climate change, these findings may help to understand the dynamics inside future estuaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the salinity mixing, the diffusive salt transport, and the diahaline exchange flow is examined using salinity coordinates. The diahaline inflow and outflow volume transports are defined in this study as the integral of positive and negative values of the diahaline velocity. A numerical model of the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) shows that this diahaline exchange flow is analogous to the classical concept of estuarine exchange flow with inflow in the bottom layers and outflow at the surface. The inflow and outflow magnitudes increase with salinity, while the net transport equals the freshwater discharge Qr after sufficiently long temporal averaging. In summer, intensified salinity mixing mainly occurs in the surface layers and around the islands. The patchy distribution of intensified diahaline velocity suggests that the water exchange through an isohaline surface can be highly variable in space. In winter, the zones of intensification of salinity mixing occur mainly in deep channels. Apart from the impact of freshwater transport from rivers, the transient mixing is also controlled by an unsteadiness term due to estuarine storage of salt and water volume. In the PRE, the salinity mixing and exchange flow show substantial spring–neap variation, while the universal law of estuarine mixing m = 2SQr (with m being the sum of physical and numerical mixing per salinity class S) holds over longer averaging period (spring–neap cycle). The correlation between the patterns of surface mixing, the vorticity, and the salinity gradients indicates a substantial influence of islands on estuarine mixing in the PRE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed changes in mean sea level (MSL) for the period 1950–2015 using a regional ocean model for the Baltic Sea. Sensitivity experiments allowed us to separate external from local drivers and to investigate individual forcing agents triggering basin-internal spatial variations. The model reveals a basin-average MSL rise (MSLR) of 2.08 ± 0.49 mm yr−1, a value that is slightly larger than the simultaneous global average of 1.63 ± 0.32 mm yr−1. This MSLR is, however, spatially highly nonuniform with lower than average increases in the southwestern part (1.71 ± 0.51 mm yr−1) and higher than average rates in the northeastern parts (2.34 ± 1.05 mm yr−1). While 75% of the basin-average MSL externally enters the Baltic basin as a mass signal from the adjacent North Sea, intensified westerly winds and a poleward shift of low pressure systems explain the majority of the spatial variations in the rates. Minor contributions stem from local changes in baroclinicity leading to a basin-internal redistribution of water masses. An observed increase in local ocean temperature further adds to the total basinwide MSLR through thermal expansion but has little effect on the spatial pattern. To test the robustness of these results, we further assessed the sensitivity to six different atmospheric surface forcing reanalysis products over their common period from 1980 to 2005. The ensemble runs indicated that there are significant differences between individual ensemble members increasing the total trend uncertainty for the basin average by 0.22 mm yr−1 (95% confidence intervals). Locally the uncertainty varies from 0.05 mm yr−1 in the central part to up to 0.4 mm yr−1 along the coasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dependency of the estuarine circulation on the depth-to-width ratio of a periodically, weakly stratified tidal estuary is systematically investigated here for the first time. Currents, salinity, and other properties are simulated by means of the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) in cross-sectional slice mode, applying a symmetric Gaussian-shaped depth profile. The width is varied over four orders of magnitude. The individual along-channel circulation contributions from tidal straining, gravitation, advection, etc., are calculated and the impact of the depth-to-width ratio on their intensity is presented and elucidated. It is found that the estuarine circulation exhibits a distinct maximum in medium-wide channels (intermediate depth-to-width ratio depending on various parameters), which is caused by a maximum of the tidal straining contribution. This maximum is related to a strong tidal asymmetry of eddy viscosity and shear created by secondary strain-induced periodic stratification (2SIPS): in medium channels, transverse circulation generated by lateral density gradients due to laterally differential longitudinal advection induces stable stratification at the end of the flood phase, which is further increased during ebb by longitudinal straining (SIPS). Thus, eddy viscosity is low and shear is strong in the entire ebb phase. During flood, SIPS decreases the stratification so that eddy viscosity is high and shear is weak. The circulation resulting from this viscosity-shear correlation, the tidal straining circulation, is oriented like the classical, gravitational circulation, with riverine outflow at the surface and oceanic inflow close to the bottom. In medium channels, it is about 5 times as strong as in wide (quasi one-dimensional) channels, in which 2SIPS is negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]