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Planetary waves disturbed the hitherto stable Arctic stratospheric polar vortex in the middle of January 2016 in such a way that unique tropospheric and stratospheric flow conditions for vertically and horizontally propagating mountain waves developed. Coexisting strong low-level westerly winds across almost all European mountain ranges plus the almost zonally aligned polar-front jet created these favorable conditions for deeply propagating gravity waves. Furthermore, the northward displacement of the polar night jet resulted in a widespread coverage of stratospheric mountain waves trailing across Northern Europe. This paper describes the particular meteorological setting by analyzing the tropospheric and stratospheric flows based on the ERA5 data. The potential of the flow for exciting internal gravity waves from nonorographic sources is evaluated across all altitudes by considering various indices to indicate flow imbalances as δ, Ro, Roζ, Ro⊥, and ΔNBE. The analyzed gravity waves are described and characterized. The main finding of this case study is the exceptionally vast extension of the mountain waves trailing to high latitudes originating from the flow across the mountainous sources that are located at about 45°N. The magnitudes of the simulated stratospheric temperature perturbations attain values larger than 10 K and are comparable to values as documented by recent case studies of large-amplitude mountain waves over South America. The zonal means of the resolved and parameterized stratospheric wave drag during the mountain wave event peak at −4.5 and −32.2 m s−1 day−1, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at generating a set of enriched analyses by assimilating the data collected during the South American Low-Level Jet Experiment (SALLJEX) in southeastern South America during the summer season 2002/03. The analyses are generated with the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) using all available observations and achieving 20-km horizontal resolution and 3-h temporal resolution. This paper describes the methods used to generate and evaluate the analyses. The results indicate that the method is appropriate because data assimilation provides an improved fit between analyses and observations. In addition, enriched analyses show a better representation of mesoscale structure in case studies. This satisfactory evaluation allows one to use the set of analyses to perform case studies at higher resolution than is currently available, with the certainty that these analyses reproduce the atmospheric conditions better than those that do not assimilate data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a comprehensive assessment of a new high-resolution, gauge–satellite-based analysis of daily precipitation over continental South America during 2004. This methodology is based on a combination of additive and multiplicative bias correction schemes to get the lowest bias when compared with the observed values (rain gauges). Intercomparisons and cross-validation tests have been carried out between independent rain gauges and different merging techniques. This validation process was done for the control algorithm [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis real-time algorithm] and five different merging schemes: additive bias correction; ratio bias correction; TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, research version; and the combined scheme proposed in this paper. These methodologies were tested for different months belonging to different seasons and for different network densities. All compared, merging schemes produce better results than the control algorithm; however, when finer temporal (daily) and spatial scale (regional networks) gauge datasets are included in the analysis, the improvement is remarkable. The combined scheme consistently presents the best performance among the five techniques tested in this paper. This is also true when a degraded daily gauge network is used instead of a full dataset. This technique appears to be a suitable tool to produce real-time, high-resolution, gauge- and satellite-based analyses of daily precipitation over land in regional domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although large-scale atmospheric reanalyses are now providing physical, realistic fields for many variables, precipitation remains problematic. As shown in recent studies, using a regional model to downscale the global reanalysis only marginally alleviates the precipitation simulation problems. For this reason, later-generation analyses, including the recent National Centers for Environmental Prediction regional reanalysis, are using precipitation assimilation as a methodology to provide superior precipitation fields. This methodology can also be applied to regional model simulations to substantially improve the precipitation fields downscaled from global reanalysis. As an illustration of the regional model precipitation assimilation impact, the authors describe here an extended-range simulation comparison over South America. The numerical experiments cover the beginning of the Large-Scale Biosphere¿Atmosphere wet season campaign of January 1999. Evaluations using radiosonde datasets obtained during this campaign are provided as well. As will be shown, rain-rate assimilation not only increases the regional model precipitation simulation skill but also provides improvements in other fields influenced by the precipitation. Because of the potential impact on land surface features, the authors believe they will ultimately be able to show improvements in monthly to seasonal forecasts when precipitation assimilation is used to generate more accurate land surface initial conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

General circulation models (GCMs) forced under different greenhouse gases emission and socioeconomic scenarios are currently the most extended tool throughout the scientific community that is used to infer the future climate on Earth. However, these models still have problems in capturing several aspects of regional climate variability in many parts of the globe. In this paper, the hydrological cycle of the La Plata Basin is simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) distributed hydrology model and forced with atmospheric data from different GCMs to determine to what extent errors in temperature and precipitation fields impact the hydrology of the basin. The skill assessment is performed in terms of simulated runoff at different closing points. Simulated hydrographs show that all of the GCMs present deficiencies in simulating the regional climatology of southern South America, and this leads to a very poor representation of the hydrological cycle of the main rivers across the basin. Two unbiasing schemes are then proposed as a means of correcting the GCM outputs before forcing the hydrology model, and comparisons between biased and unbiased simulations are also performed. Results indicate that both schemes, though methodologically different, reduce the water cycle simulation bias. Finally, VIC is forced with bias-corrected data from the GCMs for future decades (2030 and 2070) under different socioeconomic scenarios [e.g., the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios A1B, A2, and B1] to determine the potential changes in streamflow due to climate change for the rest of the present century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warm and moist air masses, required to generate deep convection east of the Andes Cordillera, are generally the result of humidity transport by the so-called low-level jet (LLJ). In this paper, it is shown from detailed test cases that the eastern part of the continent and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean may constitute another source of moist, warm air, which could be of potential importance even in the presence of a southerly LLJ. The position of the anticyclones crossing South America from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean appears to be a key factor affecting the origin of moisture over the continent. In particular, the LLJ may weaken and even change its direction when the eastern side of the South Pacific anticyclone crosses the mountains; this wind reversal is generally associated with deep convection suppression. Thus, as a South Pacific anticyclone crosses the continent more to the east and its western side reaches the east coast of South America, deep convection can reappear east of the Andes, over the Mendoza region, although the LLJ is frequently suppressed. This is associated with a transport of warm and moist air from Uruguay, southeast Brazil, or even directly from the Atlantic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important goal of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) research on the American monsoon systems is to determine the sources and limits of predictability of warm season precipitation, with emphasis on weekly to interannual time scales. This paper reviews recent progress in the understanding of the American monsoon systems and identifies some of the future challenges that remain to improve warm season climate prediction. Much of the recent progress is derived from complementary international programs in North and South America, namely, the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and the Monsoon Experiment South America (MESA), with the following common objectives: 1) to understand the key components of the American monsoon systems and their variability, 2) to determine the role of these systems in the global water cycle, 3) to improve observational datasets, and 4) to improve simulation and monthly-to-seasonal prediction of the monsoons and regional water resources. Among the recent observational advances highlighted in this paper are new insights into moisture transport processes, description of the structure and variability of the South American low-level jet, and resolution of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the core monsoon regions. NAME and MESA are also driving major efforts in model development and hydrologic applications. Incorporated into the postfield phases of these projects are assessments of atmosphere–land surface interactions and model-based climate predictability experiments. As CLIVAR research on American monsoon systems evolves, a unified view of the climatic processes modulating continental warm season precipitation is beginning to emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends the work of Dinku and Anagnostou overland rain retrieval algorithm for use with Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) observations. In Dinku and Anagnostou, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) rainfall estimates were used to calibrate TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrieval. Regional differences in PR-based TMI calibration were investigated by testing the algorithm over four geographic regions, consisting of Africa, northern South America (containing the Amazon basin), the continental United States, and south Asia. In this paper the performance of Dinku and Anagnostou's technique applied on SSM/I data over three of these regions (Africa, Amazon, and South Asia) is demonstrated. Two approaches are investigated for using PR rainfall products to calibrate the algorithm parameters. In the first approach, TMI channels are remapped to the spatial resolutions of the corresponding SSM/I channels; then, PR is used to calibrate the rain retrieval on the remapped TMI data. In the second approach, the PR-based TMI algorithm calibration is performed at a coarser (0.25°) resolution. To assess the quality of algorithm estimates with respect to PR, rainfall fields derived from Dinku and Anagnostou, applied to SSM/I observations (using parameters determined from both approaches), are compared with matched (within ±15 min of the satellites' overpass time difference) PR surface rain rates. Calibration data come from the wet seasons (January–March) of 2000 and 2001. To assess the quality of the estimates with respect to PR, data from a 5-month period (December–April) of 2002, 2003, and 2004 are used. In comparison with the latest version of the Goddard profiling (GPROF) algorithm rain estimates, the current algorithm shows significant improvements in terms of both bias and random error reduction. The paper also shows that rain estimation based on TMI observations is associated with lower error statistics in comparison with the corresponding SSM/I retrievals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical mechanisms and predictability associated with extreme daily rainfall in southeastern South America (SESA) are investigated for the December-February season in a two-part study. Through a k-mean analysis, this first paper identifies a robust set of daily circulation regimes that are used to link the frequency of rainfall extreme events with large-scale potential predictors at subseasonal-to-seasonal scales. This represents a basic set of daily circulation regimes related to the continental and oceanic phases of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and wave train patterns superimposed on the Southern Hemisphere polar jet. Some of these recurrent synoptic circulation types are conducive to extreme rainfall events in the region through synoptic control of different mesoscale physical features and, at the same time, are influenced by climate phenomena that could be used as sources of potential predictability. Extremely high rainfall (as measured by the 95th and 99th percentiles) is associated with two of these weather types (WTs), which are characterized by moisture advection intrusions from lower latitudes and the Pacific Ocean; another three WTs, characterized by above-normal moisture advection toward lower latitudes or the Andes, are associated with dry days (days with no rain). The analysis permits the identification of several subseasonal-to-seasonal scale potential predictors that modulate the occurrence of circulation regimes conducive to extreme rainfall events in SESA. It is conjectured that a cross-time scale interaction between the different climate drivers improves the predictive skill of extreme precipitation in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors evaluate the skill of a suite of seasonal hydrological prediction experiments over 28 watersheds throughout the southeastern United States (SEUS), including Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The seasonal climate retrospective forecasts [the Florida Climate Institute-Florida State University Seasonal Hindcasts at 50-km resolution (FISH50)] is initialized in June and integrated through November of each year from 1982 through 2001. Each seasonal climate forecast has six ensemble members. An earlier study showed that FISH50 represents state-of-the-art seasonal climate prediction skill for the summer and fall seasons, especially in the subtropical and higher latitudes. The retrospective prediction of streamflow is based on multiple calibrated rainfall-runoff models. The hydrological models are forced with rainfall from FISH50, (quantile based) bias-corrected FISH50 rainfall (FISH50_BC), and resampled historical rainfall observations based on matching observed analogs of forecasted quartile seasonal rainfall anomalies (FISH50_Resamp). The results show that direct use of output from the climate model (FISH50) results in huge biases in predicted streamflow, which is significantly reduced with bias correction (FISH50_BC) or by FISH50_Resamp. On a discouraging note, the authors find that the deterministic skill of retrospective streamflow prediction as measured by the normalized root-mean-square error is poor compared to the climatological forecast irrespective of how FISH50 (e.g., FISH50_BC, FISH50_Resamp) is used to force the hydrological models. However, our analysis of probabilistic skill from the same suite of retrospective prediction experiments reveals that, over the majority of the 28 watersheds in the SEUS, significantly higher probabilistic skill than climatological forecast of streamflow can be harvested for the wet/dry seasonal anomalies (i.e., extreme quartiles) using FISH50_Resamp as the forcing. The authors contend that, given the nature of the relatively low climate predictability over the SEUS, high deterministic hydrological prediction skills will be elusive. Therefore, probabilistic hydrological prediction for the SEUS watersheds is very appealing, especially with the current capability of generating a comparatively huge ensemble of seasonal hydrological predictions for each watershed and for each season, which offers a robust estimate of associated forecast uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South America has undergone a large increase in albedo over the past decade as forests have been converted to crops and wetlands have been drained. Recent modeling literature and paleoclimate precipitation proxies have highlighted how changes in surface energy balance could affect the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in South America. Here, the authors investigate whether large continental increases in albedo in South America can likewise affect the southward migration of the ITCZ into South America using the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.0 (CAM3.0) coupled with the Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM3.5) and a slab ocean model. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo data show that between 2001 and 2008 average albedo increased by 0.0025 albedo units across all South America and by 0.0032 albedo units between 0° and 24° latitude in South America and, because of this effect, the authors' simulations estimate an average ~23 mm yr−1 decrease in rainfall in the southern migration of the ITCZ (SMI) and an average ~9 mm yr−1 decrease in the entire Amazon basin. Large increases in albedo in South America decrease the northward atmospheric energy transport at the equator during the months the region of increased albedo is south of the ITCZ (May-July), leading to an apparent delay in its arrival to the SMI region and reduced rainfall in this region. However, because changing albedo is often associated with changing surface roughness, the authors model this separately and find that decreased surface roughness will have an opposite, increasing effect on precipitation. Therefore, they expect increasing albedo in South America associated with the drainage of wetlands to decrease precipitation, especially in the SMI region; however, in the case of deforestation, some of the decrease in precipitation from increased albedo may be offset by a corresponding decrease in surface roughness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Albedo is an important factor affecting global climate, but uncertainty in the sources and magnitudes of albedo change has led to simplistic treatments of albedo in climate models. Here, the authors examine nine years (2000--08) of historical 1-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo estimates across South America to advance understanding of the magnitude and sources of large-scale albedo changes. The authors use the magnitude of albedo change from the arc of deforestation along the southeastern edge of the Brazilian Amazon (++2.8%%) as a benchmark for comparison. Large albedo increases (>++2.8%%) were 2.2 times more prevalent than similar decreases throughout South America. Changes in surface water drove most large albedo changes that were not caused by vegetative cover change. Decreased surface water in the Santa Fe and Buenos Aires regions of Argentina was responsible for albedo increases exceeding that of the arc of deforestation in magnitude and extent. Although variations in the natural flooding regimes were likely the dominant mechanism driving changes in surface water, it is possible that human manipulations through dams and other agriculture infrastructure contributed. This study demonstrates the substantial role that land-cover and surface water change can play in continental-scale albedo trends and suggests ways to better incorporate these processes into global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors present results on the relationship between tree-ring proxies and regional precipitation for several sites in tropical South America. The responsiveness of oxygen isotopes ( δδ18O) and seasonal growth as precipitation proxies was first validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali myrmecophila from Manaus, Brazil (3.1°°S, 60.0°°W). Monthly growth of Tachigali spp. was significantly correlated with monthly precipitation. Intra-annual measurements of cellulose δδ18O in Tachigali spp. were also significantly correlated with monthly precipitation at a lag of approximately one month. The annual ring widths of two tropical tree taxa, Cedrela odorata growing in the Amazon (12.6°°S, 69.2°°W) and Polylepis tarapacana growing in the Altiplano (22.0°°S, 66.0°°W), were validated using bomb-derived radiocarbon 14C. Estimated dates were within two to three years of bomb-inferred 14C dates, indicating that these species exhibit annual rings but uncertainties in our chronologies remain. A multiproxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela spp. showed a significant negative relationship between cellulose δδ18O and January precipitation. A 150-yr record obtained from Polylepis spp. also showed a significant negative relationship between δδ18O and March precipitation, whereas annual ring width showed a significant positive correlation with December precipitation. These proxies were combined in a multivariate framework to reconstruct past precipitation, revealing a significant increase in monsoon precipitation at the Amazon site since 1890 and a significant decrease in monsoon precipitation at the Altiplano since 1880. Proxy time series also showed spatial and temporal coherence with precipitation variability due to El Niño forcing, suggesting that oxygen isotopes and ring widths in tropical trees may be important diagnostics for identifying regional differences in the response of the tropical hydrologic cycle to anthropogenic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this research is to explore the relationship between maximum and minimum temperatures, daily precipitation, and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). It was found that the different phases of the MJO show a consistent signal on winter temperature variability and precipitation in southeastern South America. Additionally, this paper explores the spatial–temporal variations of mutual information and joint entropy between temperature and the MJO. A defined spatial pattern was observed with an increased signal in northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. In the local mutual information analysis, periods in which the mutual information doubled the average values were observed over the entire region. These results indicate that these connections can be used to forecast winter temperatures with a better skill score in situations where both variables covary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remote influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly manifests over the equatorial Amazon (EA)—including parts of southern Venezuela, Guyana, French Guiana, and Suriname—when there is a large-scale anomalous upper-level divergence over continental tropical South America. Modeling studies conducted in this paper suggest that it is because of the modulation of the local diurnal cycle of the moisture flux convergence, which results in the local amplification of the ENSO signal over the EA. Further, it is shown that the local land surface feedback plays a relatively passive but important role of maintaining these interannual precipitation anomalies over the EA region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simulation of the stable water isotope cycle over South America by the regional circulation model REMOiso is discussed. The performance of the regional model, with a resolution of 0.5° (∼55 km), is compared to simulations by the global circulation model ECHAMiso at two coarser resolutions and evaluated against observations of precipitation and δ18O. Here REMOiso is demonstrated to reproduce reasonably well climatic and isotopic features across South America. This paper explores further insights of δ18O as a climate proxy, based on REMOiso’s improvements as compared to ECHAMiso. In particular, the authors focus on the seasonal variation of the amount effect (δ18O decrease with precipitation amounts) and the anomalous δ18O continental gradient across the Amazon basin, as inferred from the REMOiso, ECHAMiso, and GNIP datasets. The finer resolution of topography in REMOiso enables a detailed analysis of the altitude effect: not only the first, but also the second derivative of δ18O with altitude is considered. It appears that high-altitude grid cells show an isotopic signature similar to Rayleigh distillation, in accordance with experimental studies. Finally, a Lagrangian reference frame is adopted to describe the evolution of δ18O in precipitation along its trajectory, in order to relate the simulation analysis to the fractionation mechanisms. This confirms that the amount effect, via Rayleigh distillation processes, is dominant during the wet season. During the dry season, the δ18O in precipitation is controlled by isotopic reequilibration of rain droplets with surrounding vapor, reflecting the impact of nonfractionating transpiration by the vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper a methodology is proposed to downscale coarse-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) seasonal simulations. Anomaly nesting involves replacing the climatology of the driving AGCM with observed (in this case the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis) climatology at the lateral boundaries of the nested regional climate model (the regional spectral model). In this study the methodology is tested over South America and the neighboring ocean basins. A comparison of the austral summer seasonal simulation with the conventional way of nesting, namely driving the regional model with full AGCM forcing, reveals that substantial gains in the deterministic skill are realized through anomaly nesting. It is also shown that the high-frequency variance (at 3–30- and 30–40-day time scales) is more realistic from the anomaly nesting procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep convection in the Tunuyán Valley region (33°–34°S, 69°–70°W) on the eastern side of the highest peaks of the Andes Mountains is sometimes associated with damaging hail. Understanding the physical mechanisms responsible for the occurrence of deep convection in that region is therefore a central part of the development of hail suppression projects. In this paper, a case of deep convection that occurred on 22 January 2001 is studied in detail through a combined analysis of radar, satellite, and radiosonde data and numerical simulations using a nonhydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric (Meso-NH) model. The time evolution and stability characteristics are first documented using the data. In order to get insight into the main causes for the deep convection event, numerical simulations of that day were performed. These results are compared with the results corresponding to conditions of 4 January 2001 when no deep convection occurred. The comparison between the 2 days strongly suggests that the deep convection event occurred because of the simultaneous presence of anabatic winds, accumulation of moist enthalpy, and the stability conditions. The present results should be helpful in designing future observational programs in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This second paper of a three-part series documents the ability of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) to successfully replicate some known aspects of the rainfall of northwestern South America. The success of the control simulation justifies the use of the model in Part III for sensitivity experiments and more detailed diagnosis. The simulation is produced using multiply nested grids, with grid increments from 72 km down to 2 km. Three coarser-resolution grids are integrated for a period of 10 days, with the finest-resolution grid run for a 2-day subset of that period. Several features of the rainfall field are examined as metrics of the model's performance. On the largest scales, the model reasonably simulates easterly waves in the western Atlantic and Caribbean, although it tends to develop them into tropical cyclones too readily. Over the Amazon River basin, diurnally initiated rainbands are observed to propagate westward, crossing the basin in 2-3 days. The simulation contains a similar phenomenon, whose propagation appears to involve both moisture advection and ducted gravity wave dynamics in the presence of an easterly jet near the 700-hPa level. On a finer scale, the model replicates the diurnal shift in precipitation across the west coast of Colombia, with afternoon and evening convection over land, and oceanic convection that begins immediately offshore after midnight and moves out to sea through the morning. On the finest scale, the simulation contains what appears to be a hydraulic jump, as the leading edge of the cool maritime air of the sea breeze surmounts the low coastal mountain range and flows eastward into the Atrato valley, to the foot of the Western Cordillera of the Andes. A similar feature has been previously documented to occur in a narrow valley in western Colombia, between north-south-oriented ridges of similar dimension and distance inland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper multiple atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) integrations at T42 spectral truncation and prescribed sea surface temperature were used to drive regional spectral model (RSM) simulations at 80-km resolution for the austral summer season (January-February-March). Relative to the AGCM, the RSM improves the ensemble mean simulation of precipitation and the lower- and upper-level tropospheric circulation over both tropical and subtropical South America and the neighboring ocean basins. It is also seen that the RSM exacerbates the dry bias over the northern tip of South America and the Nordeste region, and perpetuates the erroneous split intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over both the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins from the AGCM. The RSM at 80-km horizontal resolution is able to reasonably resolve the Altiplano plateau. This led to an improvement in the mean precipitation over the plateau. The improved resolution orography in the RSM did not substantially change the predictability of the precipitation, surface fluxes, or upper- and lower-level winds in the vicinity of the Andes Mountains from the AGCM. In spite of identical convective and land surface parameterization schemes, the diagnostic quantities, such as precipitation and surface fluxes, show significant differences in the intramodel variability over oceans and certain parts of the Amazon River basin (ARB). However, the prognostic variables of the models exhibit relatively similar model noise structures and magnitude. This suggests that the model physics are in large part responsible for the divergence of the solutions in the two models. However, the surface temperature and fluxes from the land surface scheme of the model [Simplified Simple Biosphere scheme (SSiB)] display comparable intramodel variability, except over certain parts of ARB in the two models. This suggests a certain resilience of predictability in SSiB (over the chosen domain of study) to variations in horizontal... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the relationship between the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and its associated atmospheric circulation and rainfall variability over southeastern South America (SSA), namely the subtropical region east of the Andes between 20° and 4°S, during the austral spring. Rainfall in SSA and SST interannual variability is studied using canonical correlation analysis. The first two modes show the wellknown warm-wet and cold-dry pattern between the equatorial SST and rainfall over most of this part of the world. However, SST in the equatorial regions does not modulate rainfall variability among El Niño (EN) years or among La Niña (LN) years. On the other hand, it does modulate this variability between EN and LN cases as a whole and among neutral cases indicating that the SSA rainfall response to equatorial Pacific SST is not linear over the observed SST range, having no dependence on the extremes of this range. In contrast, among EN events, SST in the subtropical south-central Pacific (SSCP) modulates the seasonal rainfall over most of SSA. Also, when all the years are considered, this SST has a correlation with precipitation of magnitude similar to those corresponding to the SST in EN regions. Consistent with this, the circulation field has enhanced cyclonic (anticyclonic) advection over subtropical SSA when SST in the SSCP is cold (warm). SSTs in EN-3 or EN-3.4 regions and in the SSCP are negatively correlated, but their correlation is practically zero when only EN cases or only neutral cases are considered, and very small in LN cases. This allows a stratification analysis composing cases according to different SSTs in EN-3 and EN-3.4 regions with almost constant SST in the SSCP and similarly according to different SST in the SSCP with approximately constant SST in EN regions. The composite difference fields with constant equatorial SST and with constant SST in the SSCP have a wave train in the Pacific... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Midlatitude disturbances such as intense cold fronts and cutoff lows are a very important cause of severe-weather events over the southern part of South America, particularly during the austral winter months. Behind cold fronts, cold air from higher latitudes is forced to flow equatorward to the east of the Andes. Occasionally fronts might produce cold surges in tropical latitudes, with freezing temperatures (referred as to GEADAS in Portuguese) over crop-growing areas of southern, southeastern, and central Brazil. The structure and dynamical processes of winter synoptic-scale waves associated with cold surges over South America are documented in this paper. It is shown that the rotated extended empirical orthogonal function technique is capable of extracting well-defined regional patterns from 850-hPa meridional-wind perturbation fields. Over South America, waves behave very differently in the lower and middle troposphere: while upper-level waves propagate northeastward as they cross the Andes, evolving in a manner consistent with the concept of Rossby wave dispersion, at lower levels, waves tend to conform to the shape of the mountain range, in agreement with the theory of topographic Rossby waves. However, it was found that cold surges do not seem to result from the generation of rotationally trapped waves. Significant differences have been found between synoptic-scale patterns associated with cold surges over extratropical South America (NO GEADA composites) and synoptic-scale patterns associated with major cold-air outbreaks that produce extreme low temperatures at tropical regions (GEADA composites). While both surges are characterized by a long-wave pattern consisting of a cyclonic perturbation over South America and anticyclonic perturbation behind over the southern Pacific Ocean, at the early stages of GEADA composites, two additional features were identified: a subpolar and subtropical short-wave pattern. The presence of the upper-level subtropical... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synoptic-scale incursions of cold, midlatitude air that penetrate deep into the Tropics are frequently observed to the east of the Andes cordillera. These incursions are a distinctive year-round feature of the synoptic climatology of this part of South America and exhibit similar characteristics to cold surges observed in the lee of the Rocky Mountains and the Himalayan Plateau. While their large-scale structure has received some attention, details of their mesoscale structural evolution and underlying dynamics are largely unknown. This paper advances our understanding in these matters on the basis of a mesoscale numerical simulation and analysis of the available data during a typical case that occurred in May of 1993. The large-scale environment in which the cold air incursion occurred was characterized by a developing midlatitude wave in the middle and upper troposphere, with a ridge immediately to the west of the Andes and a downstream trough over eastern South America. At the surface, a migratory cold anticyclone over the southern plains of the continent and a deepening cyclone centered over the southwestern Atlantic grew mainly due to upper-level vorticity advection. The surface anticyclone was also supported by midtropospheric subsidence on the poleward side of a jet entrance–confluent flow region over subtropical South America. The northern edge of the anticyclone followed an anticyclonic path along the lee side of the Andes, reaching tropical latitudes 2–3 days after its onset over southern Argentina. The concomitant cold air produced low-level (surface to ∼800 hPa) cooling on the order of 10°C over the subtropical part of the continent (as far north as 10°S). Based on the observations and model results, a three-stage evolution of the cold air incursion is suggested. The initial cooling to the south of 30°S and far from the Andes is mainly produced by the geostrophic southerly winds between the continental anticylone... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transient incursions of midlatitude air to the east of the Andes Mountains into subtropical and tropical latitudes are a distinctive feature of the synoptic climatology over South America. The mean synoptic-scale structure of these incursions is documented in this paper on the basis of a compositing analysis of NCEP--NCAR reanalyzed meteorological fields and satellite-based outgoing longwave radiation measurements. Although these incursions are a year-round phenomenon, with relatively modest seasonal changes in their structure, this analysis is focused on the austral summer, when they have their largest impact in the precipitation field. The summertime incursions move equatorward at a mean speed of 10 m s 21 and retain their identities over intervals of about 5 days. The upper-level circulation is characterized by a midlatitude trough--ridge couplet that provides the quasigeostrophic forcing of the system. Before the onset of the incursions of midlatitude air, the approaching upper-level trough tends to deepen the semipermanent area of low pressure over the central plains of the continent (25°--10°S). The strong southward advection of warm, humid air creates favorable conditions for the development of deep convection over central and southern Argentina. During the next two days, a migratory cold anticyclone, steered by the ridge aloft, moves onto the southern plains of South America (40°-- 35°S), establishing a large-scale, southward-directed pressure gradient. Due to the blocking effect of the Andes, the induced low-level circulation assumes the form of an agesotrophic southerly flow that produces the equa-torward advection of the cold air. In this stage, enhanced convection occurs in a well-defined band of the intensified low-level convergence at the leading edge of the cold surge. This synoptic-scale banded structure in the convective cloudiness also emerges as the dominant mode of the day-to-day variability of the deep... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of testing the homogeneity of the basic data used in this study, that is, the mean monthly maximum and minimum temperature (as derived from daily observations) of several long-term climatological stations of Venezuela and Colombia, and an evaluation of the fluctuations and deviations from long-term means of such parameters, as well as of the diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) during the 73-yr period, 1918-90. The 14 longest-term climatological stations in Venezuela and Colombia with available metadata and the most consistent temperature records were used. Homogeneity tests were done by application of the Alexandersson's Test. Eleven stations (the ones with less inhomogeneities) were finally left for partial data adjustments of their records when needed (only a few of them), following the technique developed by Easterling and Peterson. Then, the temperature trends and deviations from long-term averages (1918-90) were determined. The most remarkable feature of the analysis is a relative and sustained increase of the minimum temperature series and a DTR decrease during the last 25 yr of the period at a significant rate in most of the station records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the records of streamflow during the period 1901--95 corresponding to four major rivers in southeastern South America: Uruguay, Negro, Parana, and Paraguay. The emphasis is on the detection of long-term trends in the records. The authors demonstrate that the 30-yr running averaged streamflows increased after the mid-1960s at a rate that is approximately linear but not the same in all rivers. There seems to be a tendency toward leveling off in the most recent values. The increased streamflow is consistent with a significant decrease in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in all rivers, except in the Negro River. An analysis of the sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean suggests that an important component of such an increase in streamflows is consistent with a large-scale and low-frequency variability of the climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An optimal projection for improving the skill of dynamical model forecasts is proposed. The proposed method uses statistical optimization techniques to identify the most skillful or most predictable patterns, and then projects forecasts onto these patterns. Applying the method to seasonal mean 2-m temperature from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) multimodel hindcast dataset reveals that the method improves skill only in South America and Africa, suggesting that the benefit of optimal projection is limited to certain regions, but can be substantial. Further investigation reveals that the improvement in skill comes not from optimal projection itself, but from the EOF prefiltering that is done to reduce the dimension of the optimization space. Thus, much of the improvement attributable to optimal projection can be achieved by suitable EOF filtering. Interestingly, models are found to generate patterns that project only weakly on observational datasets but are strongly correlated between models. An important by-product of the method is a concise summary of the skillful or predictable structures in a given forecast. For the ENSEMBLES dataset, the method convincingly demonstrates that most of the seasonal prediction skill over continents comes from two components, ENSO and the global warming trend. In addition, the method can be used to determine whether a pattern exists that is well predicted by one model but not by another model (complementary skill). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present work focuses on the study of the environmental conditions preceding the development of a group of subtropical mesoscale convective systems over central and northern Argentina on 6–7 February 2003 during the South American Low Level Jet Experiment. This period was characterized by an extreme northerly low-level flow along the eastern Andes foothills [South American low-level jet (SALLJ)]. The entire studied episode was dominated by the presence of a very unstable air mass over northern Argentina and a frontal zone near 40°S. The SALLJ generated an important destabilization of the atmosphere due to the strong humidity and differential temperature advection. Orography provided an extra lifting motion to the configuration of the regional wind field, which was efficient in forcing the initiation of convection. Once convection developed, it moved and regenerated in regions where the convective instability was horizontally homogeneous and stronger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moisture is transported in South America westward from the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the Amazon basin, and then southward toward the extratropics. A regional intensification of this circulation to the east of the Andes Mountains is called the South American low-level jet (SALLJ), with the strongest winds found over eastern Bolivia. SALLJ is present all year and channels moisture to the La Plata basin, which is analogous to the better-known Amazon basin in terms of its biological and habitat diversity, and far exceeds the latter in its economic importance to southern and central South America in terms of hydroelectricity and food production. The relatively small SALLJ spatial scale (compared with the density of the available sounding network) has a limited understanding of and modeling capability for any variations in the SALLJ intensity and structure as well as its possible relationship to downstream rainfall. The SALLJ Experiment (SALLJEX), aimed at describing many aspects of SALLJ, was carried out between 15 November 2002 and 15 February 2003 in Bolivia, Paraguay, central and northern Argentina, western Brazil, and Peru. Scientists, collaborators, students, National Meteorological Service personnel, and local volunteers from South American countries and the United States participated in SALLJEX activities in an unprecedented way, because SALLJEX was the most extensive meteorological field activity to date in subtropical South America, and was the first World Climate Research Program/ Climate Variability and Prediction Program international campaign in South America. This paper describes the motivation for the field activity in the region, the special SALLJEX observations, and SALLJEX modeling and outreach activities. We also describe some preliminary scientific conclusions and discuss some of the remaining questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last four decades, the sea level pressure has been decreasing over the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Sea (ABS) region and increasing between 30° and 40°S from New Zealand to Chile, thus forming a pressure trend dipole across the South Pacific. The trends are strongest in austral winter and have influenced the climate of West Antarctica and South America. The pressure trends have been attributed to decadal variability in the tropics, expansion of the Hadley cell, and an associated positive trend of the southern annular mode, but these mechanisms explain only about half of the pressure trend dipole intensity. Experiments conducted with two atmospheric models indicate that upper ocean warming over the subtropical southwest Pacific (SSWP), termed the Southern Blob, accounts for about half of the negative pressure trend in the ABS region and nearly all the ridging/drying over the eastern subtropical South Pacific, thus contributing to the central Chile megadrought. The SSWP warming intensifies the pressure trend dipole through warming the troposphere across the subtropical South Pacific and shifting the midlatitude storm track poleward into the ABS. Multidecadal periods of strong SSWP warming also appear in fully coupled preindustrial simulations, associated with a pressure trend dipole and reduction in rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, thus suggesting a natural origin of the Southern Blob and its teleconnection. However, the current warming rate exceeds the range of natural variability, implying a likely additional anthropogenic contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will result in more dry days and longer dry spells; however, the resulting impacts on crop growth depend on the timing of these longer dry spells in the annual cycle. Using an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and phase 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) simulations, and a range of emission scenarios, here we examine changes in wet and dry spell characteristics under future climate change across the extended tropics in wet and dry seasons separately. Delays in the wet seasons by up to 2 weeks are projected by 2070–99 across South America, southern Africa, West Africa, and the Sahel. An increase in both mean and maximum dry spell length during the dry season is found across Central and South America, southern Africa, and Australia, with a reduction in dry season rainfall also found in these regions. Mean dry season dry spell lengths increase by 5–10 days over northeast South America and southwest Africa. However, changes in dry spell length during the wet season are much smaller across the tropics with limited model consensus. Mean dry season maximum temperature increases are found to be up to 3°C higher than mean wet season maximum temperature increases over South America, southern Africa, and parts of Asia. Longer dry spells, fewer wet days, and higher temperatures during the dry season may lead to increasing dry season aridity and have detrimental consequences for perennial crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall over tropical South America is known to be modulated by convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs). In this work, the origin and dynamical features of South American Kelvin waves are revisited using satellite-observed brightness temperature, radiosonde, and reanalysis datasets. Two main types of CCKWs over the Amazon are considered: Kelvin waves with a Pacific precursor, and Kelvin waves with a precursor originating over South America. Amazonian CCKWs associated with a preexisting Kelvin convection in the eastern Pacific account for about 35% of the total events. The cases with South American precursors are associated with either pressure surges in the western Amazon from extratropical wave train activity, responsible for 40% of the total events, or "in situ" convection that locally excites CCKWs, accounting for the remaining 25%. The analysis also suggests that CCKWs associated with different precursors are sensitive to Pacific sea surface temperature. Kelvin wave events with a Pacific precursor are more common during ENSO warm events, while Kelvin waves with extratropical South American precursors show stronger activity during La Niña events. This study also explores other triggering mechanisms of CCKWs over the Amazon. These mechanisms are associated with 1) extratropical Rossby wave trains not necessarily of extratropical South American origin; 2) CCKWs initiated in response to the presence of the southern and/or double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the eastern Pacific Ocean; and 3) possible interaction between CCKWs and other equatorial waves in the Amazon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of each phase of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) on the large-scale circulation in South America is investigated using rainfall observations, fully coupled, large-ensemble, historical simulations (LENS), and forced experiments using the coupled model's atmospheric component. IOD events often occur when El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest source of interannual variability of precipitation in South America, is active. To distinguish from effects of ENSO, only cases during neutral ENSO conditions are analyzed in LENS and observations. During the positive IOD polarity, a perturbation in the local Walker circulation leads to increased convection over equatorial South America, resulting in wet anomalies in the Amazon basin. This signal is the opposite of what is expected during El Niño events. Tropical convection anomalies in the Indian Ocean also force an extratropical Rossby wave train that reaches subtropical South America. During positive IOD, the moisture flux from the Amazon to central and southeastern Brazil weakens, resulting in a drying of the area associated with the South Atlantic convergence zone. Meanwhile, the South Atlantic subtropical high strengthens, contributing to a drying in southeastern Brazil. During negative IOD, the induced wave train from the Indian Ocean leads to increased moisture transport to the La Plata basin, leading to wet anomalies in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interseasonal and interbasins hydrological coupling between the Amazon and the La Plata watersheds is obtained with the help of ERA-5 atmospheric reanalysis, MERGE/CPTEC precipitation, GLEAM evapotranspiration, and the GLDAS/Noah soil moisture datasets. The hypotheses formulated in a previous work by Zanin and Satyamurty about the hydrological processes interconnecting the Amazon Basin and the La Plata Basin are tested. A new method for finding the source–sink relationships among the boxes (regions) is presented. The precipitation recycling, frequency of source–sink behaviors, the soil moisture memory, and the continental moisture transport between remote regions are evaluated. The main result of this study is that the amount of water precipitated over the southeastern region of the Amazon Basin at the end of the South American monsoon during the autumn season influences the amount of precipitation during the winter season over the central-western region of the La Plata Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an assemblage of four ice cores collected around the Pacific basin, one of the first basinwide histories of Pacific climate variability has been created. This ice core–derived index of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) incorporates ice core records from South America, the Himalayas, the Antarctic Peninsula, and northwestern North America. The reconstructed IPO is annually resolved and dates to 1450 CE. The IPO index compares well with observations during the instrumental period and with paleo-proxy assimilated datasets throughout the entire record, which indicates a robust and temporally stationary IPO signal for the last ~550 years. Paleoclimate reconstructions from the tropical Pacific region vary greatly during the Little Ice Age (LIA), although the reconstructed IPO index in this study suggests that the LIA was primarily defined by a weak, negative IPO phase and hence more La Niña–like conditions. Although the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean during the LIA remains uncertain, the reconstructed IPO reveals some interesting dynamical relationships with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). In the current warm period, a positive (negative) IPO coincides with an expansion (contraction) of the seasonal latitudinal range of the ITCZ. This relationship is not stationary, however, and is virtually absent throughout the LIA, suggesting that external forcing, such as that from volcanoes and/or reduced solar irradiance, could be driving either the ITCZ shifts or the climate dominating the ice core sites used in the IPO reconstruction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In South America, land–atmosphere interactions have an important impact on climate, particularly the regional hydrological cycle, but detailed evaluation of these processes in global climate models has been limited. Focusing on the satellite-era period of 2003–14, we assess land–atmosphere interactions on annual to seasonal time scales over South America in satellite products, a novel reanalysis (ERA5-Land), and two global climate models: the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-1.2) and the U.K. Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3). We identify key features of South American land–atmosphere interactions represented in satellite and model datasets, including seasonal variation in coupling strength, large-scale spatial variation in the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to surface moisture, and a dipole in evaporative regime across the continent. Differences between products are also identified, with ERA5-Land, HadGEM3, and BAM-1.2 showing opposite interactions to satellites over parts of the Amazon and the Cerrado and stronger land–atmosphere coupling along the North Atlantic coast. Where models and satellites disagree on the strength and direction of land–atmosphere interactions, precipitation biases and misrepresentation of processes controlling surface soil moisture are implicated as likely drivers. These results show where improvement of model processes could reduce uncertainty in the modeled climate response to land-use change, and highlight where model biases could unrealistically amplify drying or wetting trends in future climate projections. Finally, HadGEM3 and BAM-1.2 are consistent with the median response of an ensemble of nine CMIP6 models, showing they are broadly representative of the latest generation of climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the potential effects of historical deforestation in South America using a regional climate model driven with reanalysis data. Two different sources of data were used to quantify deforestation during the 1980s to 2010s, leading to two scenarios of forest loss: smaller but spatially continuous in scenario 1 and larger but spatially scattered in scenario 2. The model simulates a generally warmer and drier local climate following deforestation. Vegetation canopy becomes warmer due to reduced canopy evapotranspiration, and ground becomes warmer due to more radiation reaching the ground. The warming signal for surface air is weaker than for ground and vegetation, likely due to reduced surface roughness suppressing the sensible heat flux. For surface air over deforested areas, the warming signal is stronger for the nighttime minimum temperature and weaker or even becomes a cooling signal for the daytime maximum temperature, due to the strong radiative effects of albedo at midday, which reduces the diurnal amplitude of temperature. The drying signals over deforested areas include lower atmospheric humidity, less precipitation, and drier soil. The model identifies the La Plata basin as a region remotely influenced by deforestation, where a simulated increase of precipitation leads to wetter soil, higher ET, and a strong surface cooling. Over both deforested and remote areas, the deforestation-induced surface climate changes are much stronger in scenario 2 than scenario 1; coarse-resolution data and models (such as in scenario 1) cannot represent the detailed spatial structure of deforestation and underestimate its impact on local and regional climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lightning megaflashes extending over >100-km distances have been observed by the Geostationary Lightning Mappers (GLMs) on NOAA's R-series Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). The hazards posed by megaflashes are unclear, however, because of limitations in the GLM data. We address these by reprocessing GOES-16 GLM measurements from 1 January 2018 to 15 January 2020 and integrating them with Earth Networks Global Lightning Network (ENGLN) observations. ENGLN verified 194 880 GLM megaflashes as natural lightning. Of these, 127 479 flashes occurred following the October 2018 GLM software update that standardized GLM timing. Reprocessed GLM/ENGLN lightning maps from these postupdate cases provide a comprehensive view of how individual megaflashes evolve. This megaflash dataset is used to generate statistics that describe their hazards. The average megaflash produces 5–7 cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes that are spread across 40%–50% of the flash extent. As flash extent increases beyond 100 km, megaflashes become concentrated in key hot-spot regions in North and South America while the number of CG and intracloud events per flash and the overall peak current increase. CGs in the larger megaflashes occur over 80% of the flash extent measured by GLM, and the majority contain regions where the megaflash is the only lightning activity in the preceding hour. These statistics demonstrate that there is no safe location below an electrified cloud that is producing megaflashes, and current lightning safety guidance is not always sufficient to mitigate megaflash hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-based estimates of rainfall are frequently used to complement scarce networks of gauges. Understanding uncertainties is an important step, but it is often hindered by a lack of validation data or misrepresented by spatial-scale-related uncertainties, which are especially important in spatially variable regions such as mountains. This study evaluates the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) V05B 30-min estimates for all three runs (Early, Late, Final) over the high tropical Andes. A unique dataset containing 15 rain gauges located within one IMERG grid at elevations ranging from 3800 to 4600 m provides a first evaluation opportunity in this topographical context. The evaluation was based on categorical, statistical, and graphical methods. Error dependencies on precipitation characteristics and data source of the IMERG estimate were investigated. We show that IMERG severely underdetects precipitation events, thus underestimating precipitation depths. Poor detection is partially attributable to the low-intensity nature of precipitation over the region. However, tracing the error to the data source highlights limitations in passive microwave retrievals over the full range of intensities. No IMERG run has best overall performance, emphasizing that run suitability is application specific. The impact of gauge density on performance metrics was also evaluated and showed that subdaily IMERG accuracy is overestimated by sparse networks. A minimum of six gauges was required at the 30-min increment so that performance metrics are within 0.1 points of their true scores. We provide the first comprehensive assessment of 30-min IMERG in a mountainous setting, highlighting the importance of high-density networks for accurate subdaily evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demand of subseasonal predictions (from one to about four weeks in advance) has been considerably increasing as these predictions can potentially help prepare for the occurrence of high-impact events such as heat or cold waves that affect both social and economic activities. This study aims to assess the subseasonal temperature prediction quality of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) against the Japan Meteorological Agency reanalyses. Two consecutive weeks of July 2017 were analyzed, which presented anomalously cold and warm conditions over central South America. The quality of 20 years of hindcasts for the two investigated weeks was compared to that for similar weeks during the JJA season and of 3 years of real-time forecasts for the same season. Anomalously cold temperatures observed during the week of 17–23 July 2017 were well predicted one week in advance. Moreover, the warm anomalies observed during the following week of 24–30 July 2017 were well predicted two weeks in advance. Higher linear association and discrimination (ability to distinguish events from nonevents), but reduced reliability, was found for the 20 years of hindcasts for the target week than for the hindcasts produced for all of the JJA season. In addition, the real-time forecasts showed generally better performance over some regions of South America than the hindcasts. The assessment provides robust evidence about temperature prediction quality to build confidence in regional subseasonal forecasts as well as to identify regions in which the predictions have better performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) had a special observing period (SOP) that ran from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019, a period chosen to span the austral warm season months of greatest operational activity in the Antarctic. Some 2,200 additional radiosondes were launched during the 3-month SOP, roughly doubling the routine program, and the network of drifting buoys in the Southern Ocean was enhanced. An evaluation of global model forecasts during the SOP and using its data has confirmed that extratropical Southern Hemisphere forecast skill lags behind that in the Northern Hemisphere with the contrast being greatest between the southern and northern polar regions. Reflecting the application of the SOP data, early results from observing system experiments show that the additional radiosondes yield the greatest forecast improvement for deep cyclones near the Antarctic coast. The SOP data have been applied to provide insights on an atmospheric river event during the YOPP-SH SOP that presented a challenging forecast and that impacted southern South America and the Antarctic Peninsula. YOPP-SH data have also been applied in determinations that seasonal predictions by coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice models struggle to capture the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Antarctic sea ice minimum. Education, outreach, and communication activities have supported the YOPP-SH SOP efforts. Based on the success of this Antarctic summer YOPP-SH SOP, a winter YOPP-SH SOP is being organized to support explorations of Antarctic atmospheric predictability in the austral cold season when the southern sea ice cover is rapidly expanding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the existence of an Amazonian low-level jet (ALLJ) that can affect the propagation and life cycle of convective systems from the northeast coast of South America into central Amazonia. Horizontal winds from reanalysis were analyzed during March-April-May (MAM) of the two years (2014-15) of the GoAmazon2014/5 field campaign. Convective system tracking was performed using GOES-13 infrared imagery and classified into days with high and weak convective activity. The MAM average winds show a nocturnal enhancement of low-level winds starting near the coast in the early evening and reaching 1600 km inland by late morning. Mean 3-hourly wind speeds maximize at 9-10ms21 near 900 hPa, but individual days can have nighttime low-level winds exceeding 12ms21. Based on objective low-level wind criteria, the ALLJ is present 10%-40% of the time over the Amazon during MAM depending on the location and time of day. The evolution of the ALLJ across the Amazon impacts the frequency of occurrence of cloud clusters and the intensity of the moisture flux. In addition, the ALLJ is associated with the enhancement of northeasterly flow in the midtroposphere during active convective days, when vertical momentum transport may be occurring in the organized cloud clusters. During the weakly active convective period, the ALLJ is weaker near the coast but stronger across the central Amazon and appears to be linked more directly with the South American low-level jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projected changes in the South American monsoon system by the end of the twenty-first century are analyzed using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). The wet season is shorter in LENS when compared to observations, with the mean onset occurring 19 days later and the mean retreat date 21 days earlier in the season. Despite a precipitation bias, the seasonality of rainfall over South America is reproduced in LENS, as well as the main circulation features associated with the development of the South American monsoon. Both the onset and retreat of the wet season over South America are delayed in the future compared to current climate by 3 and 7 days, respectively, with a slightly longer wet season. Central and southeastern Brazil are projected to get wetter as a result of moisture convergence from the strengthening of the South Atlantic low-level jet and a weaker South Atlantic subtropical high. The Amazon is projected to get drier by the end of the century, negatively affecting rain forest productivity. During the wet season, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is found over most of South America, and especially over northeastern and southern Brazil and La Plata. Meanwhile, during the dry season an increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days is found over northeastern Brazil and the northern Amazon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South Atlantic subtropical dipole is the dominant mode of coupled variability in the South Atlantic, connecting sea level pressure and sea surface temperature. Previous studies have shown its great relevance to the climate conditions over South America and West Africa. We have used several numerical experiments with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model to investigate the effects that an austral winter–spring dipole asserts on the South Atlantic. We explore the interaction between SST anomalies and the formation of the fossilized mixing region, which preserve temperature anomalies underneath the summer mixed layer, until they feed back to SST after the next autumn. It was found that, through this process, there is a memory effect that restores temperature anomalies from an austral winter–spring dipole back to the austral winter of the following year. The dominant mechanisms are the contribution from entrainment and surface net heat flux (NHF). Entrainment is mostly controlled by vertical temperature gradient anomalies, while surface NHF is controlled by interactions of climatological ocean heat loss and anomalies of mixed layer thickness. Our results suggest that the combined effect of entrainment and surface NHF is different in the southwest and northeast dipole regions, leading to differences in both intensity and timing of SST anomalies. Turbulent and nonlinear processes are most important to reduce entrainment in the southwest dipole region and to increase the memory effect asymmetry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents an analysis of the observed trends in extreme precipitation events in the Paraná River basin (PRB) from 1977 to 2016 (40 yr) based on daily records from 853 stations. The Mann–Kendall test and inverse-distance-weighted interpolation were applied to annual and seasonal precipitation and also for four extreme precipitation indices. The results show that the negative trends (significance at 95% confidence level) in annual and seasonal series are mainly located in the northern and northeastern parts of the basin. In contrast, except in the autumn season, positive trends were concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions of the basin, most notably for annual and summer precipitation. The spatial distributions of the indices of annual maximum 5-day precipitation and number of rainstorms indicate that significant positive trends are mostly located in the south-southeast part of the basin and that significant negative trends are mostly located in the north-northeast part. The index of the annual number of dry days shows that 88% of significant trends are positive and that most of these are located in the northern region of the PRB, which is a region with a high number of consecutive dry days (>90). The simple daily intensity index showed the highest number of stations (263) with mostly positive significant trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cenozoic climate of tropical South America was fundamental to the development of its biota, the most biodiverse on Earth. No previous studies have explicitly addressed how the very different atmospheric composition and Atlantic geometry during the early Eocene (approximately 55 million years ago) may have affected South American climate. At that time, the Atlantic Ocean was approximately half of its current width and the CO2 concentration of Earth's atmosphere ranged from ~550 to ~1500 ppm or even higher. Climate model simulations were performed to examine the effects of these major state changes on the climate of tropical South America. Reducing the width of the Atlantic by approximately half produces significant drying relative to modern climate. Drying is only partly offset by an enhancement of precipitation due to the higher CO2 of the early Eocene. The main mechanism for drier conditions is simple. Low-level air crosses the tropical Atlantic from North Africa in much less time for a narrower Atlantic (2 days) than for the modern Atlantic (~6 days); as a result, much less water is evaporated into the air and thus there is far lower moisture imported to the continent in the Eocene simulation than in the modern control. The progressive wetting (during the mid- to late Cenozoic) of the Amazon due to the widening Atlantic and the rising Andes, only partly offset by decreasing CO2 values, may have been partly responsible for the accumulating biodiversity of this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides a reconciling perspective on the two main, but contradictory, interpretations of the southern annular mode (SAM). SAM was originally thought to characterize meridional shifts in the storm track across the entire hemisphere. This perspective was later questioned, and SAM was interpreted as a statistical artifact depending on the choice of base region for the principal component analysis. Neither perspective, however, fully describes SAM. We show that SAM cannot be interpreted in terms of midlatitude variability, as SAM merely modulates the most poleward part of the cyclone tracks and only marginally influences the distribution of other weather-related features of the storm track (e.g., position of jet axes and Rossby wave breaking). Instead, SAM emerges as the leading pattern of geopotential variability due to strong correlations of sea level pressure around the Antarctic continent. As SAM correlates strongly both with the pan-Antarctic mean temperature and the meridional heat flux through 65°S, we hypothesize that SAM can be interpreted as a measure of the degree of the (de)coupling between Antarctica and the southern midlatitudes. As an alternative way of characterizing southern midlatitude variability, we seek domains in which the leading EOF patterns of both the geopotential and storm-track features yield a dynamically consistent picture. This approach is successful for the South Pacific. Here the leading variability patterns are closely related to the Pacific–South America pattern and point toward an NAO-like variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work aims to isolate and quantify the local and remote biogeophysical influences of slowly varying vegetation variability on the climate of La Plata basin (LPB) in the austral spring season (September–November) using observational records. Past studies have shown strong land–atmosphere coupling in LPB during this season. The analysis uses a 34-yr record (1981–2014) of the modified enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from the NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Vegetation Index and Phenology dataset and the third-generation normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies. The dominant patterns of vegetation index variability in space and time are assessed using empirical orthogonal function/principal component analysis over the LPB. The dominant mode in the austral spring is a vegetation dipole, with greening (browning) or positive (negative) vegetation index anomalies in the northeastern (southwestern) part of the basin. Using the stepwise generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (SGEFA), the effect of the vegetation variability on the atmosphere is then isolated. The dominant mode of LPB vegetation variability in austral spring is related to warmer temperatures in the southwest LPB and enhanced precipitation over the central and southern parts of the basin. A mechanism is proposed for the increase in latent heat flux and cooler temperatures in the northeastern LPB due to greening, and the increase in sensible heat flux, warmer temperatures, and decrease in surface pressure in southwestern LPB due to browning. The geostrophic response to this induced pressure gradient leads to anomalous northerly enhancement of moisture-laden winds, deeper penetration of moisture into LPB, and increased precipitation over the central and southern parts of the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold-air incursions across South America present a variety of problems, sometimes by advancing to the Amazon basin and causing agricultural losses related to extreme low-temperature events. The synoptic conditions that produce cold-air incursions are relatively well understood; however, the most affected region depends on the route by which cold air spreads across the continent. Therefore, the classification of extreme cold-air incursions allows a better understanding of the particularities directly related to the aforementioned losses. In this work, similarities and differences among extreme cold surges were found through time series correlation of anomaly temperatures in four selected areas and compositing techniques from ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets, resulting in three distinct patterns: meridional penetration (MP), meridional restriction (MR), and east penetration (EP). The patterns identified here enable a more detailed understanding of the synoptic patterns and forcing mechanisms associated with extreme cold-air incursions and therefore can be used for operational weather forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show an increase in maximum precipitation extremes and a decrease in maximum temperature extremes over southeastern South America (SESA) in the second half of the twentieth century. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) experiments are able to successfully reproduce the observed trends of extreme precipitation and temperature over SESA. Careful analysis of a smaller ensemble of CESM-LE single forcing experiments reveals that the trends of extreme precipitation and temperature over SESA are mostly caused by stratospheric ozone depletion. The underlying dynamical mechanism is investigated and it is found that, as a consequence of stratospheric ozone depletion and the resulting southward shift of tropospheric jet streams, anomalous easterly flow and more intense cyclones have occurred over SESA, which are favorable for heavier rainfall extremes and milder heat extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]