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Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Radar Estimation via Machine Learning to Inform NWP (GREMLIN) is a machine learning model that outputs composite reflectivity using GOES-R Series Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) input data. GREMLIN is useful for observing severe weather and initializing convection for short-term forecasts, especially over regions without ground-based radars. This study expands the evaluation of GREMLIN's accuracy against the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) System to the entire contiguous United States (CONUS) for the entire annual cycle. Regional and temporal variation of validation metrics are examined over CONUS by season, day of year, and time of day. Since GREMLIN was trained with data in spring and summer, root-mean-square difference (RMSD) and bias are lowest in the order of summer, spring, fall, and winter. In summer, diurnal patterns of RMSD follow those of precipitation occurrence. Winter has the highest RMSD because of cold surfaces mistaken as precipitating clouds, but some of these errors can be removed by applying the ABI clear-sky mask product and correcting biases using a lookup table. In GREMLIN, strong echoes are closely related to the existence of lightning and corresponding low brightness temperatures, which result in different error distributions over different regions of CONUS. This leads to negative biases in cold seasons over Washington State, lower 30-dBZ critical success index caused by high misses over the Northeast, and higher false alarms over Florida that are due to higher frequency of lightning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Raindrop size distribution (DSD) observed using a disdrometer can be represented by a constrained-gamma (C-G) DSD model based on the empirical relationship between shape (µ) and slope (Λ). The C-G DSD model can be used to retrieve DSDs and rain microphysical parameters from dual-polarization radar measurements of reflectivity (ZH) and differential reflectivity (ZDR). This study presents a new µ-Λ relationship to characterize rain microphysics in South Korea using a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) and Yong-in S-band dual-polarization radar. To minimize sampling errors from the 2DVD and radar measurements, measured size distributions are truncated by particle size and velocity-based filtering and compared with rain gauge measurement. The calibration biases of radar ZH and ZDR were calculated using the self-consistency constraint and vertical pointing measurements. The derived µ-Λ relationship was verified using the mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm) and standard deviation of the size distribution (σm), calculated from the 2DVD, for comparison with existing µ-Λ relationships for Florida and Oklahoma. The Dm-σm relationship derived from the 2DVD corresponded well with the µ-Λ relationship. The µ-Λ relationship derived for the Korean Peninsula was similar to Florida, and both generally had larger µ values than Oklahoma for the same Λ. The derived µ-Λ relationship was applied to retrieve DSD parameters from polarimetric radar data, and the retrieved DSDs and derived physical parameters were evaluated and compared with the 2DVD measurements. The polarization radar-based C-G DSD model characterized rain microphysics more accurately than the exponential DSD model. The C-G DSD model based on the newly derived µ-Λ relationship performed the best at retrieving rain microphysical parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thunderstorms in central Florida frequently halt outdoor activities, requiring that one wait some prescribed time after an assumed last flash before safely resuming activities. The goal of this research is to develop a high-skill probabilistic method that can be used in high pressure real-world operations to terminate lightning warnings more quickly while maintaining safety. Probabilistic guidance tools are created for isolated warm season storms in central Florida using dual-polarized radar data at 1-min intervals. The parameters examined are maximum reflectivity and graupel presence at the 0°, −5°, −10°, −15°, and −20°C levels as well as composite reflectivity. Random samples of the radar data are used to train a generalized linear model (GLM) to make a probabilistic prediction whether a given flash is the storm's last flash. The most statistically significant predictors for lightning cessation are found to be the storm's maximum reflectivity in the composite and the 0°C levels, along with graupel presence or absence at the −5°, −10°, −15°, and −20°C levels. Statistical verification is used to analyze the performance of the two GLMs at different probability thresholds (95.0%, 97.5%, and 99.0%). When applying the cessation guidance as though storms are occurring in real time, results showed ~99% of the storms produced no additional lightning after the GLM suggested cessation had already occurred. Although these results are encouraging, the procedure must be tested on much larger datasets having different convective modes and different areal coverages to prove its value compared to operational forecasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind warnings are the second-most-frequent advisory issued by the U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral, Florida. Given the challenges associated with nowcasting convection in Florida during the warm season, improvements in 45WS warnings for convective wind events are desired. This study aims to explore the physical bases of dual-polarization radar signatures within wet downbursts around Cape Canaveral and identify signatures that may assist the 45WS during real-time convective wind nowcasting. Data from the 45WS's C-band dual-polarization radar were subjectively analyzed within an environmental context, with quantitative wind measurements recorded by weather tower sensors for 32 threshold-level downbursts with near-surface winds ≥ 35 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1) and 32 null downbursts. Five radar signatures were identified in threshold-level downburst-producing storms: peak height of 1-dB differential reflectivity ZDR column, peak height of precipitation ice signature, peak reflectivity, height below 0°C level where ZDR increases to 3 dB within a descending reflectivity core (DRC), and vertical ZDR gradient within DRC. Examining these signatures directly in updraft–downdraft cycles that produced threshold-level winds yielded mean lead times of 20.0–28.2 min for cumulus and mature stage signatures and 12.8–14.9 min for dissipating stage signatures, with higher signature test values generally yielding higher skill scores. A conceptual test of utilizing signatures within earlier cells in multicell storms to indirectly predict the potential for intense downbursts in later cells was performed, which offered increased lead times and skill scores for an Eulerian forecast region downstream from the storm initiation location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structure of the coastal internal boundary layer (IBL) during a landfalling hurricane has important ramifications on operational forecasting, structural design, and poststorm damage assessment. Despite these important issues, the mean IBL structure at the coastline during landfall is poorly understood. Knowledge of the vertical kinematic structure within tropical cyclones over water has improved greatly through aircraft reconnaissance missions and the advent of GPS dropsondes and stepped frequency microwave radiometers. Unfortunately, reconnaissance and research aircraft are limited to overwater missions, resulting in a poor understanding of vertical kinematic structure near the coastal interface, where changes in IBL structure are expected due to changes in surface roughness. Composite single- and dual-Doppler radar observations col-lected by the Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radars during the landfall of Hurricane Frances (2004) are presented. Data analyses from the Cape Canaveral, Florida, region reveal a pronounced IBL throughout the data collection period. As a result, significant variability in the analyzed wind speed and direction are found across and near the coastal interface. IBL height is found to be suppressed when compared to an accepted empirical growth model, while multiple abrupt roughness transitions associated with the Cape Canaveral region contribute to a complex mean IBL structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the spatial structures and temporal evolutions of distinct physical processes on the West Florida Shelf, patterns of ocean current variability are extracted from a joint HF radar and ADCP dataset acquired from August to September 2003 using Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analyses. Three separate ocean–atmosphere frequency bands are considered: semidiurnal, diurnal, and subtidal. The currents in the semidiurnal band are relatively homogeneous in space, barotropic, clockwise polarized, and have a neap-spring modulation consistent with semidiurnal tides. The currents in the diurnal band are less homogeneous, more baroclinic, and clockwise polarized, consistent with a combination of diurnal tides and near-inertial oscillations. The currents in the subtidal frequency band are stronger and with more complex patterns consistent with wind and buoyancy forcing. The SOM is shown to be a useful technique for extracting ocean current patterns with dynamically distinctive spatial and temporal structures sampled by HF radar and supporting in situ measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple-Doppler radar and rawinsonde data are used to examine misocyclone characteristics along gust fronts observed during the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) project in Florida. The objective of this study is to investigate the observational representativeness of previous numerical simulations of misocyclones by employing a consistent analysis strategy to 11 gust fronts observed in the same region. The investigation focuses on the intensity range of misocyclones and their organization along gust fronts; the relationship between misocyclone intensity and horizontal wind shear, vertical wind shear, and static stability; and the relationship between misocyclones and convection initiation. The intensity of misocyclones, as indicated by the maximum values of vertical vorticity, varied from 2.8 × 10-3 to 13.9 × 10-3 s-1, although all but one case exhibited values less than 6.4 × 10-3 s-1. Organized misocyclone patterns were only found along small segments of gust fronts. Within those segments misocyclones were spaced between 3 and 7 km. Results show that the intensity of misocyclones was most closely related to the strength of horizontal wind shear across the gust front. The relationship between misocyclone intensity and vertical wind shear and static stability was not as clear. Although convection was initiated along the gust front in 7 of the 11 cases, those regions were not collocated with or in close proximity to misocyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a method of absolutely calibrating and routinely monitoring the reflectivity calibration from a scanning weather radar using a vertically profiling radar that has been absolutely calibrated using a collocated surface disdrometer. The three instruments have different temporal and spatial resolutions, and the concept of upscaling is used to relate the small resolution volume disdrometer observations with the large resolution volume scanning radar observations. This study uses observations collected from a surface disdrometer, two profiling radars, and the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) scanning weather radar during the Texas–Florida Underflight-phase B (TEFLUN-B) ground validation field campaign held in central Florida during August and September 1998. The statistics from the 2062 matched profiling and scanning radar observations during this 2-month period indicate that the WSR-88D radar had a reflectivity 0.7 dBZ higher than the disdrometer-calibrated profiler, the standard deviation was 2.4 dBZ, and the 95% confidence interval was 0.1 dBZ. This study implies that although there is large variability between individual matched observations, the precision of a series of observations is good, allowing meaningful comparisons useful for calibration and monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents the first documented large-amplitude cloud radar observations of Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in a Florida tropical anvil. Usability of radar in detecting shear instability in the atmosphere; Invalidity of the frequent assumption that an anvil is a well-mixed layer; Existence of several identifiable weaker shear layers in the anvil and in the Doppler spread.

The effective vertical resolution of the Kennedy Space Center 50-MHz Doppler radar wind profiler is deter-mined using vertical wavenumber spectra and temporal coherence. The resolution ranges from being Nyquist limited at 300 m to as coarse as 900 m. The average resolution is about 500 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retrievals of specific attenuation at 5.5-cm wavelength from dual-radar observations of a summer convective storm in Florida are presented. The retrieved specific attenuation is positive except in regions near the radars where the observed reflectivity factors suffered from contamination by ground clutter. The specific attenuations ranged between 0.0 and 2.0 dB km[sup-1]; they are small at higher levels of the storm, and high reflectivity cores are generally associated with higher specific attenuations. A plot of the retrieved specific attenuation against reflectivity factor at 10-cm wavelength shows that a majority of the retrieved values agree with those calculated from empirical relationships between reflectivity factor and specific attenuation. A small fraction of the points having high reflectivity factors have smaller than empirically predicted attenuations; these are attributed to dry ice particles. A larger fraction of the points having low reflectivity factors, less than about 30 dBZ, have higher than empirically predicted attenuations; these are attributed to attenuation by cloud liquid water and mixed-phase hydrometeors. A scatterplot of the differential reflectivity factor at 10-cm wavelength against the ratio of the retrieved specific attenuation to the reflectivity factor at 10-cm wavelength agrees generally with a theoretically expected relationship between the two parameters for horizontally oriented deformed raindrops, giving credence to the retrievals. However, the points scatter rather widely around the theoretical curve and the scatter is attributed to 1) signal fluctuations; 2) physical factors, namely, cloud water, ice particles, and mixed-phase particles of various shapes; 3) instrumental factors, namely, ground clutter, finite pulse volume, mismatched radar antenna patterns, and sidelobes; and 4) numerical procedures used in the retrievals, namely, data interpolation, smoothing, and differentiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on the discussion on the use of software GR2Analyst for examining severe weather signatures through radar analysis during the meeting of the West Central Florida chapter of American Meteorological Society in the computer laboratory in the Geography Department at the University of South Florida in Tampa, Florida. The difference between Level II and Level III data used in radar analysis was explained. Meteorologist Andy Johnson presented the May 3, 1999 Moore, Oklahoma tornado using GR2Analyst.