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Intraseasonal and diurnal variations are two basic periodic oscillations in global/regional climate and weather. To investigate their joint impacts over East Asia, this paper categorizes the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in 1998–2019 into two groups with different diurnal cycles. It is shown that the active ISOs with large diurnal cycles feature a northwestward-moving anomalous anticyclone with strong southerlies at the western flank. These ISOs have in-phase patterns of geopotential height anomaly between low and midlatitudes over East Asia, associated with the simultaneous expansions of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and South Asian high (SAH). They couple with the anomalous ABL heating by daytime solar radiation over East Asia, which acts to enhance monsoon southerlies at midnight. The nocturnally strengthened southerlies facilitate dynamic lifting, moisture transport, and convective instability for producing midnight to morning rainfall at their northern terminus, thereby yielding a remarkable northward propagation of the monsoon rain belt. In contrast, the other ISOs with small diurnal cycles are related to a westward-moving anomalous anticyclone, while the WPSH and SAH have relatively small expansions and the westerly trough is active at middle latitudes. They lead to the dipole patterns of geopotential height anomaly and weak ABL heating over East Asia. The daily-mean southerlies and moisture conditions as well as their nocturnal enhancements are relatively weak, and thus, the northward shift of the monsoon rain belt is less pronounced. These results highlight that the large-scale conditions of ISOs can be distinguished by their different couplings with regional-scale diurnal forcings, which help the understanding and prediction of multiscale rainfall activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an updated analysis of observed changes in extreme precipitation using high-quality station data up to 2018. We examine changes in extreme precipitation represented by annual maxima of 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) precipitation accumulations at different spatial scales and attempt to address whether the signal in extreme precipitation has strengthened with several years of additional observations. Extreme precipitation has increased at about two-thirds of stations and the percentage of stations with significantly increasing trends is significantly larger than that can be expected by chance for the globe, continents including Asia, Europe, and North America, and regions including central North America, eastern North America, northern Central America, northern Europe, the Russian Far East, eastern central Asia, and East Asia. The percentage of stations with significantly decreasing trends is not different from that expected by chance. Fitting extreme precipitation to generalized extreme value distributions with global mean surface temperature (GMST) as a covariate reaffirms the statistically significant connections between extreme precipitation and temperature. The global median sensitivity, percentage change in extreme precipitation per 1 K increase in GMST is 6.6% (5.1% to 8.2%; 5%–95% confidence interval) for Rx1day and is slightly smaller at 5.7% (5.0% to 8.0%) for Rx5day. The comparison of results based on observations ending in 2018 with those from data ending in 2000–09 shows a consistent median rate of increase, but a larger percentage of stations with statistically significant increasing trends, indicating an increase in the detectability of extreme precipitation intensification, likely due to the use of longer records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study reported in this paper used ERA-Interim reanalysis data to investigate the intraseasonal variability of the Bay of Bengal (BOB)–East Asia–Pacific teleconnection (BEAP) during the summer between 1979 and 2016. Over this period, the intraseasonal oscillation of the BEAP fell mainly within the quasibiweekly oscillation (QBWO) band. Variations in atmospheric circulation and precipitation, which may contribute to extreme weather events, showed a significant correlation with the phase transition of the BEAP from the BOB to East Asia and the Pacific. The evolution of the BEAP–QBWOis closely associated with the westward propagation of convective anomalies to the southwestern BOB. Dynamical analysis revealed that anomalous vertical motion coupled with anomalous convective activity over the southern BOB plays an important role in leading the phase propagation of the BEAP–QBWO, and that the horizontal advection anomalies can strengthen the BEAP–QBWO. Linear baroclinic model experiments confirmed that variations in convection over the southern BOB play a leading role in the BEAP–QBWO phase changes. Further research suggests that the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation can trigger the BEAP–QBWO through downstream propagation of convective disturbances to the southern BOB. This study provides insights into the cause and effect of the BEAP–QBWO, which will help to improve understanding of flood and drought patterns in the Asia–Pacific region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paths of winter cold surge (CS) events in East Asia (EA) from 1979 to 2017 are tracked by the Flexible Particle (FLEXPART) model using ERA-Interim daily datasets, and the probability density distribution of the paths is calculated by the kernel density estimation (KDE) method. The results showed that the paths of CSs are significantly correlated with the intensity of the CSs, which shows an interdecadal transition from weak to strong around 1995. CS paths can be classified into two types, namely, the western path type and the northern path type, which were more likely to occur before and after 1995, respectively. Before 1995, the cold air mainly originated from Europe and moved from west to east, and the synoptic features were associated with the zonal wave train. After 1995, cold air accumulated over western Siberia and then invaded EA along the northern path, and the synoptic features were mainly associated with the blocking structure. The geopotential height (GPH) anomalies over the Arctic were abnormally strong. This paper further analyzes the relationship between CSs and winter sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Arctic. The results show that the intensity of CSs is negatively correlated with the Barents SIC (BSIC). When the BSIC declines, the upward wave flux over the Barents Sea is enhanced and expanded to the midlatitude region. GPH anomalies over the Arctic are positive and form a negative AO-like pattern, which is conducive to the formation of the northern path CS. Furthermore, the observed results are supported by numerical experiments with the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.3 (CAM5.3). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Any skillful prediction is of great benefit to North China, a region that is densely populated and greatly impacted by droughts. This paper reports potential predictability of North China summer drought 1 month ahead based on hindcasts for 1961–2005 from the "ENSEMBLES" project. Correlation scores of the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index and standardized precipitation index reach 0.49 and 0.39, respectively. The lower-level northwestern Pacific cyclonic circulation anomaly (NWPCCA) and East Asian upper-tropospheric temperature (UTT) cooling are the crucial circulations with regard to summer drought. Two sources of predictability are identified: 1) Pacific–Japan and Silk Road teleconnections forced by well-established eastern Pacific Ocean El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in summer, when the two key circulations are both well predicted because of a good prediction of enhanced equatorial central Pacific (CP) rainfall and Indian rainfall deficit, and 2) the subtropical atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with CP El Niño developing, when the skill mainly arises from the reasonable prediction of NWPCCA. In observations, the NWPCCA persists from the preceding spring to summer through a wind–evaporation–SST feedback related to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM). In predictions, the persistence of the NWPCCA is mainly forced by the enhanced convection over the subtropical central North Pacific due to the persistence of the PMM-related meridional SSTA gradient over the CP. This predicted SSTA suppresses the equatorial Pacific rainfall, contributing to low prediction skill for the East Asian UTT cooling. This study demonstrates the importance of extratropical signals from the preceding season in North China summer drought prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climatological mean summer monsoon onset in the South China Sea (SCS) is a remarkably abrupt event. However, defining onset dates for individual years is noticeably controversial. The controversies and complications arise primarily from a number of factors: the intermittent southward intrusion of cold fronts into the northern SCS, the bogus onset in late April before the establishment of tropical monsoons over Indochina, and active intraseasonal oscillation. In this paper, a simple yet effective index, U[sub SCS] , the 850-hPa zonal winds averaged over the central SCS (5°–15°N and 110°–120°E), is proposed for objectively defining the SCS monsoon onset. This onset index depicts not only the sudden establishment of the tropical southwesterly monsoon over the SCS but also the outbreak of the rainy season in the central-northern SCS. In this paper the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is defined as the broadscale summer monsoon over East Asia and the western North Pacific region (0°–40°N, 100°–140°E). It is shown that the seasonal transition of EASM can be objectively determined by the principal component of the dominant empirical orthogonal mode of the 850-hPa zonal winds, U[sub EOF1] . It is found that the local index U[sub SCS] represents U[sub EOF1] extremely well; thus, it can be used to determine both the SCS onset and the commencement of the broadscale EASM. The result suggests that the SCS summer monsoon onset indeed signifies the beginning of the summer monsoon over East Asia and the adjacent western Pacific Ocean. Evidence is also provided to show the linkage between the two salient phases of EASM: the local onset of the SCS monsoon and the local onset of the mei-yu (the rainy season in the Yangtze River and Huai River basin and southern Japan). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-range transport of bioaerosols by dust events significantly impacts ecological and meteorological networks of the atmosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere. Bioaerosols not only cause significant public health risks, but also act as efficient ice nuclei for inducing cloud formation and precipitation in the hydrological cycle. To establish risk management for bioaerosol impacts on the Earth system, a large-scale investigation of bioaerosols must be performed under different environmental conditions. For this purpose, a Dust–Bioaerosol (DuBi) field campaign was conducted to investigate the distribution of bioaerosols by collecting ∼950 samples at 39 sites across East Asia from 2016 to 2021. Concentrations and community structures of bioaerosols were further analyzed using fluorescence microscopic observations and high-throughput DNA sequencing, and these factors were compared to environmental factors, such as PM10 and aridity. The results indicated that microbial concentrations at dryland sites were statistically higher than those at humid sites, while the microbe-to-total-particle ratio was statistically lower in drylands than in humid regions. Microbial cells per microgram of PM10 decreased when PM10 increased. The proportion of airborne particles at each site did not vary substantially with season. The richness and diversity of airborne bacteria were significantly higher in drylands than in semiarid regions, while the community structures were stable among all sampling sites. The DuBi field campaign improves our understanding of bioaerosol characteristic variations along the dust transport pathway in East Asia and the changes of bioaerosols under the trend of climate warming, supporting the efforts to reduce public health risks. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: We first conducted large-scale Dust–Bioaerosol (DuBi) field observations in East Asia from 2016 to 2021. We used unified sampling and analysis methods to collect 950 samples at 39 sites and analyzed bioaerosols' concentration and community structure. This study aims to find the relationship between bioaerosols with atmospheric particles and aridity, which fills gaps in the field. These results improve our understanding of bioaerosols' impacts on ecological and meteorological networks of the atmosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere. The comprehensive observations will promote prediction of bioaerosol change under the trend of climate warming, supporting the efforts to reduce global climate, ecological security, and public health risks in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the ERA5 reanalysis data and the Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method (CFRAM), we attribute the mechanism of summer upper-tropospheric temperature (UTT) variations in the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region to several external forcing and internal feedback processes. The summer UTT in the SASM region is dominated by two modes. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode (EOF1) is a monopolar warming pattern, and the second EOF mode (EOF2) shows a meridional dipole pattern. CFRAM results show that summer UTT anomalies are mainly attributed to cloud feedback and nonradiative processes of atmospheric dynamics (ATD) and surface-related processes. For EOF1, ocean heat storage and partial cloud feedback processes contribute most UTT anomalies over the Indian Ocean. The ATD increases the UTT over East Asia through the adiabatic warming caused by anomalous anticyclone in the upper troposphere. The formation of EOF2 is closely linked to the ATD, while the cloud process partially compensates for the excessive changes in UTT caused by the ATD. The South Asian high and its circulation in the midlatitude region are significantly enhanced. The anomalous anticyclone over northern East Asia along with the anomalous easterly wind on the south side of the South Asian high favors increased warm advection and adiabatic heating, contributing to the warming of UTT. Meanwhile, adiabatic cooling resulting from the atmospheric ascent in the middle and upper troposphere leads to UTT cooling over the Indian Ocean. The quantitative attribution of UTT has great implications for better understanding future SASM variation. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to understand the physical mechanisms of upper-tropospheric temperature (UTT) changes in the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM). Although previous studies have examined temperature variation from the perspective of atmospheric circulation, there has been limited investigation into the influence of various feedback processes. Our study reveals that the summer UTT in the SASM region is dominated by monopolar and meridional dipole modes. Utilizing a climate feedback–response analysis method, we attribute the UTT anomalies in the SASM region to the cloud feedback, oceanic heat storage, and atmospheric dynamics processes, and explore the physical mechanisms of their effects. These results have important implications for the better prediction of monsoon variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anomalies in atmospheric moisture transport are critical for drought formation, with East Asian monsoon anomalies identified as the primary driver of droughts in East Asia. However, the drought mechanism for the border region between monsoon and nonmonsoon land areas remains unclear due to complex interactions between latitudinal circulation patterns. Using a Lagrangian framework, we quantify moisture supply (MS) during spring and summer drought events within the border region, specifically Northeast China (NEC). Our results reveal that decreased MS from monsoon land areas is more crucial than nonmonsoon land areas and local areas for NEC droughts, with the local water recycling playing a more substantial role in summer than in spring. On average, summer droughts are 4 times more intense than spring droughts. Contributions to MS deficits from monsoon land areas, nonmonsoon land areas, and local areas during spring (summer) droughts are 43.2% (43.8%), 25.1% (19.2%), and 22% (33.8%), respectively. The weakened atmospheric circulation from source regions to NEC contributes to over 80% of MS deficits during droughts. Atmospheric wave trains triggered by North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) gradients, along with the weakening of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet in spring and a positive phase of the polar–Eurasian teleconnection in summer, contribute to spring and summer droughts, respectively. A sustained, record-breaking positive SSTA along the western European coast from the spring to summer excited a wave train, and resulted in the extreme 2017 spring–summer drought. These findings provide valuable insights into the drought mechanism within the interaction zone of circulation systems from different latitudes. Significance Statement: The complex interactions between atmospheric circulation patterns at different latitudes have led to an insufficient understanding of the mechanisms causing extreme drought in the border region between the monsoon and nonmonsoon land areas. This study aims to investigate the drought mechanisms in the border region from the perspective of moisture tracking. Results indicate a moisture supply deficit from the monsoon region contributes the most (approximately half) to droughts, although the majority of air parcels reaching this region originate from the nonmonsoon region. The weakening of circulation contributes to more than 80% of the moisture supply deficit during droughts, far exceeding the impact of reduced evaporation from the moisture source regions. These findings are conducive to understanding the mechanisms of extreme drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold surge occurrences are one of the robust features of winter monsoon in East Asia and are characterized by equatorward outbreaks of cold air from the high latitudes. Beside greatly affecting weather variability across the Far East, cold surges are of importance for Southeast Asian countries because they can propagate far to the tropics and excite convective activities. However, the tropical responses highly depend on the downstream pathways of the surges. To better understand how cold surges influence tropical weather, we investigate 160 cold surges identified using a quantitative approach during 40 winters from 1979/80 to 2018/19, and then classify them into several groups based on their prominent pathways. At the midlatitudes, we find two groups: one for surges that show clear equatorward propagation of cold air to lower latitudes and the other for surges that turn eastward and bring cold air to the North Pacific. These groups arise due to the strength difference of the Siberian high expansion controlled by cold air blocking near the Tibetan Plateau. The tropical impact is evident in the former group. We perform further classification on this group and find four types of surges based on their pathways in the low latitudes: 1) South China Sea (SCS) surges, 2) Philippines Sea (PHS) surges, 3) both SCS and PHS surges, and 4) blocked surges. They exhibit distinct precipitation signatures over the Maritime Continent, which are driven by interactions between the surges and the pre-existing synoptic conditions over the tropics, particularly the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The thermal and mechanical effects of the regional orography have long been recognized as the two most important factors driving the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The Southeast Asian low-latitude highlands (SEALLH) are a warmer and wetter highland region adjacent to the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. However, the importance of the individual contributions of the thermal and mechanical effects of the SEALLH to the EASM is still unclear. Results of numerical experiments show that the thermal effect of the SEALLH contribute to the precipitation and upper-tropospheric circulation of the EASM by roughly the same magnitude as the mechanical effect of the SEALLH, when its original height is reduced by 50%. The thermal effect of the SEALLH influences the EASM by exciting an East Asia–Pacific-like teleconnection, whereas the mechanical effect of the SEALLH impacts the EASM by exciting an equivalent barotropic Bay of Bengal–East Asia–Pacific-like teleconnection. This study could provide a new perspective for a better understanding of the EASM. Significance Statement: Recent studies have shown that the mountains adjacent to the Tibetan Plateau have significant effects on the Asian summer monsoon, although these mountains are much lower in elevation and smaller in extent than the Tibetan Plateau. The Southeast Asian low-latitude highlands (SEALLH), located on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, influence the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) via both thermal and mechanical effects. However, the individual thermal and mechanical contributions to the EASM have not yet been clarified. Numerical experiments designed specifically for the SEALLH, which is warmer and wetter than the Tibetan Plateau, show that the thermal effect of the SEALLH on precipitation and the upper-tropospheric circulation over the EASM region is roughly equivalent to the mechanical effect of the SEALLH when its original height was reduced by 50%, but via different physical processes. The thermal effect of the SEALLH induces southerly wind anomalies between the SEALLH and the western North Pacific, influencing the EASM by exciting an East Asia–Pacific-like wave train. The mechanical effect of the SEALLH influences the EASM by exciting an equivalent barotropic Bay of Bengal–East Asia–Pacific-like wave train. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been well known that the preceding winter ENSO affects the atmospheric convection over the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) in summer, which has important impacts on Asian climate. However, more than half of the interannual variance in tropical WNP convection cannot be explained by ENSO. This study separates the WNP convection into two components, namely, independent of and dependent on the preceding winter ENSO, and compares the anomalies associated with these two components. The linear regression results indicate that the independent convection suppression corresponds to significant cyclonic anomalies over East Asia in both the lower and upper troposphere, and correspondingly a southward displacement of upper-tropospheric East Asian westerly jet. By contrast, these circulation anomalies are weakened for the dependent convection suppression, which is more closely related to the lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomalies over the Indian Ocean. Accordingly, the independent and dependent components exert distinct impacts on rainfall and temperature in Asia. Specifically, the independent suppression corresponds to more significantly enhanced rainfall in subtropical East Asia compared with the dependent one. Moreover, there are colder surface air temperatures in the midlatitude East Asia for the independent suppression and warmer temperatures in South and Southeast Asia for the dependent suppression. Further analyses suggest that the circulation and climate anomalies for the independent component are mainly contributed by July and August, while those for the dependent component become weak from June to August. These results can be helpful for a better understanding of summer Asian climate variability and predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific often cause heavy rainfall events (HREs) in East Asia. However, how their interactions with midlatitude flows alter the characteristics of HREs remains unclear. The present study examines the synoptic–dynamic characteristics of HREs directly resulting from TCs in South Korea with a focus on the role of midlatitude baroclinic condition. The HREs are categorized into two clusters based on midlatitude tropopause patterns: strongly (C1) and weakly (C2) baroclinic conditions. C1, which is common in late summer, is characterized by a well-defined trough–ridge couplet and jet streak at the tropopause. As TCs approach, the trough–ridge couplet amplifies, but is anchored by divergent TC outflow. This leads to phase locking of the upstream trough with TCs and thereby prompts substantial structural changes of TCs reminiscent of extratropical transition. The synergistic TC–midlatitude flow interactions allow for widely enhanced quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent to the north of the TC center. This allows HREs to occur even before TC landfall with more inland rainfall than C2 HREs. In contrast, C2, which is mainly observed in midsummer, does not accompany the undulating tropopause. In the absence of strong interactions with midlatitude flows, TCs rapidly dissipate after HREs while maintaining their tropical features. The upward motion is confined to the inherent TC convection, and thus HREs occur only when TCs are located in the vicinity of the country. These findings suggest that midlatitude baroclinic condition determines the spatial extent of TC rainfall and the timing of TC-induced HREs in South Korea. Significance Statement: This study suggests that the midlatitude flows can substantially modulate heavy rainfall events directly caused by tropical cyclones. By analyzing the 42-yr tropical cyclone–induced heavy rainfall events in South Korea, it is found that tropical cyclones and midlatitude flows strongly interact with each other, especially when the midlatitude flows meander in conjunction with a strong jet stream. Their synergistic interactions result in a poleward expansion of the tropical cyclones' precipitation shields, leading to heavy rainfall events even before they make landfall in the country. Consequently, it is advisable to carefully monitor the midlatitude conditions as well as tropical cyclones themselves as earlier heavy rainfall warnings may be necessary depending on the former. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the dynamical processes through which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) influences the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) within the framework of the moist static energy (MSE) budget, using both observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. The focus is on the most prominent feature of the EASM, the so-called meiyu-baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest-northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean between mid-June and mid-July. Observational analyses of the MSE budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, and primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the TP is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The multimodel ensemble (MME) is able to reproduce reasonably well the circulation features of the EAWM. The simulated surface air temperature still suffers from a cold bias over East Asia, but this bias is reduced compared with CMIP phase 3 models. The intermodel spread is relatively small for the large-scale circulations, but is large for the lower-tropospheric meridional wind and precipitation along the East Asian coast. The interannual variability of the EAWM-related circulations can be captured by most of the models. A general bias is that the simulated variability is slightly weaker than in the observations. Based on a selected dynamic EAWM index, the patterns of the EAWM-related anomalies are well reproduced in MME although the simulated anomalies are slightly weaker than the observations. One general bias is that the northeasterly anomalies over East Asia cannot be captured to the south of 30°N. This bias may arise both from the inadequacies of the EAWM index and from the ability of models to capture the EAWM-related tropical-extratropical interactions. The ENSO-EAWM relationship is then evaluated and about half of the models can successfully capture the observed ENSO-EAWM relationship, including the significant negative correlation between Niño-3.4 and EAWM indices and the anomalous anticyclone (or cyclone) over the northwestern Pacific. The success of these models is attributed to the reasonable simulation of both ENSO's spatial structure and its strength of interannual variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During glacial periods, the East Asian monsoon is typically thought to have been stronger in boreal winters and weaker in boreal summers. It is unclear, however, whether this view is true at larger scales and to what extent the East Asian monsoon responds to glacial conditions as a whole. Using all experiments conducted as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), this paper examines East Asian monsoon climatology during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), around 21 000 calendar years ago. In contrast to conclusions drawn from sparse proxy data, the intensity of the East Asian winter (December-February) monsoon (EAWM) during the LGM, as measured by regionally averaged meridional wind speed at 850 hPa, was found to vary both in sign and magnitude, with reference to baseline climate, across the PMIP simulations. It strengthened in 10 out of the 21 models but weakened in the remaining 11 models, with an average weakening of 4% for the 21-model ensemble mean (15% for the ensemble mean of the 14 models with computed sea surface temperatures). At the subregional scale, the LGM EAWM strengthened north of about 30°N but weakened south of this region in East Asia, which can be explained by changes in surface temperature. On the other hand, all of the 14 models chosen in this study consistently simulated a weaker than baseline East Asian summer (June-August) monsoon during the LGM, with an average weakening of 25%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the sensitivity of the modeled evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to physical parameterization using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). To this end, perfect boundary condition experiments driven by analysis data are designed for August 2003 to investigate the individual role of the surface processes, boundary layer, and convection parameterization on the simulated monsoon. Also, 10-yr June–August (JJA) simulations from 1996 to 2005 are performed to evaluate the overall impacts of these revisions on the simulated EASM climatology. The one-month simulation for August 2003 reveals that the experiment with a realistic distribution of land use conditions and vegetation and smaller thermal roughness length simulates higher temperature and geopotential height. On the other hand, in the experiment with an improved boundary layer scheme, the rainfall amount is slightly decreased due to reduced vertical mixing. The simulation with revised subgrid-scale processes in the cumulus parameterization scheme reproduces a rainband over the subtropics, which is weakly simulated by the default package. The overall large-scale distribution from the experiment, which includes all three revised physics processes, shows the same direction as that of the revised convection run in the middle and upper troposphere, but is improved further when other newly enhanced processes are combined. These improvements are also achieved in a 10-yr summer simulation. It is distinct that the revised physics package improves the large-scale patterns by strengthening the intensity of the North Pacific high and reducing the intensity of the lower-level jet, which are critical components in the EASM. The general patterns of the interannual and intraseasonal variation of precipitation are also improved, in particular, over land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study examines variations in summertime (July–September) tropical cyclone (TC) activity over East Asia during the period 1951–2003. To represent TC activity, a total of 853 TC best tracks for the period were converted to TC passage frequencies (TPFs) within 5° × 5° latitude–longitude grids; TPFs are defined as the percentage values obtained by dividing the number of TC appearances in each grid box by the total number of TCs each year. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the TPF showed three leading modes: two tropical modes that represent the long-term trend and the relationship with ENSO and one midlatitude mode that oscillates between south of Korea and southeast of Japan with an interannual time scale. The latter proved to be the most remarkable climatic fluctuation of summertime TC activity in the midlatitudes and is referred to as the East Asian dipole pattern (EADP) in this paper. Anomalous atmospheric flows directly connected to the EADP are an enhanced anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation centering around Japan when the TPF is high south of Korea (southeast of Japan), thereby showing an equivalent barotropic structure in the entire troposphere. This regional circulation anomaly varies in conjunction with the zonally oriented quasi-stationary Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. This wave train is meridionally trapped in the vicinity of the summer-mean jet stream; therefore, the mean jet stream alters its internal meandering structure according to the phase of the wave train. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regional coupled soil–vegetation–atmosphere model is used to study changes and interactions between climate and the ecosystem in East Asia due to increased atmospheric CO[sub 2] . The largest simulated climate changes are due to the radiative influence of CO[sub 2] , modified slightly by vegetation feedbacks. Annual precipitation increases by about 20% in coastal areas of northern China and in central China, but only by 8% in southern China. The strongest warming of up to 4°C occurs in summer in northern China. Generally, the climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO[sub 2] except for inland areas of northern China, where it becomes warmer and drier. Most of the changes discussed in this paper are associated with changes in the East Asian monsoon, which is intensified under doubled CO[sub 2] . The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. In some coastal and central areas around 40°N, temperate deciduous forests expand northward, replacing grassland due to warmer and wetter climate. Evergreen taiga retreats in the coastal northeast, causing extra cooling feedback due to less snow masking. The largest changes occur in extensive inland regions northward of 40°N, where deserts and shrub land expand due to warmer and drier conditions, and water supply is a critical factor for vegetation. These northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data and a nonlinear barotropic model, the transient activities and the possible role of transient vorticity fluxes in the maintenance of east Asian summer seasonal mean circulation anomalies associated with Japan's extremely cool and wet summer of 1993 and hot and dry summer of 1994 are examined. Data analysis shows that the summertime atmospheric circulation and the transient activity anomalies exhibit nearly opposite patterns over east Asia during these two years. Vorticity budget calculations indicate that the anomalies of transient activities in these two years produced strong transient vorticity flux forcing anomalies that are comparable in magnitude to the divergent forcing anomalies over east Asia. The nonlinear barotropic model, when forced by the anomalous divergence and transient vorticity flux forcing together, produces simulations that bear resemblance to the observed summertime seasonal mean circulation anomalies of 1993 and 1994. The response to the anomalous transient vorticity flux forcing is found to be similar in magnitude with the response to the anomalous divergence. The solution deteriorates if the transient vorticity flux forcing anomaly is not included. Both the vorticity budget analysis and model simulations in the present paper show that the transient vorticity flux forcing anomaly plays an important role in maintaining the observed circulation anomalies over east Asia during the 1993 and 1994 summers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global climate change, recent studies indicate a poleward migration trend of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP), while little attention has been paid to the TC cyclolysis (hereafter Lysis). With respect to two different datasets, this study identifies the poleward migration of the annual-mean latitude of TC Lysis during 1979-2018, being more significant for the intensified TCs, although this trend is suppressed by the reduction in the TC frequency over the sea. It is found that the TC migration is more like a poleward translation of the overall movement rather than the expansion of a specific phase's distance span. Subsequently, the trends of several environmental parameters related to TC development are also analyzed. The large-scale sea surface temperature warming leads to the increase of potential intensity and enhances the possibility of TC poleward migration. Through controlling the TC formation in the eastern WNP tropics, the variations of vertical wind shear and horizontal winds affect TC Lysis latitude, facilitate the TC development environment around East Asia offshore and island chain areas, and steer TCs poleward migration through the southerly wind anomalies in the area north of 308N. Regarding the cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere, their influence on TC Lysis latitude is mainly by adjusting the numbers of TCs rather than directly interfering with the TC movement process. The present results indicate that the northern WNP coastal region will also become a TC-prone area in the future, which needs to be treated with caution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Against the backdrop of global warming, the Eurasian continent and its surrounding areas have experienced ununiform warming in recent decades. Variations in the meridional thermal contrast (MTC) in East Asia and its adjacent regions have a critical influence on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM); therefore, its forcings were analyzed in this study. The results show that the MTC in East Asia and the surrounding regions showed significant decadal changes during the interval 1960–2014, with a decadal strengthening in the late 1970s and a decadal weakening in the late 1990s. Further investigation showed that internal variability was the dominant control on these two decadal changes of MTC, accounting for 135% and 78.5% of the two observed changes in the 1970s and 1990s, respectively. Based on pacemaker experiments and a method that reconstructs decadal changes in the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), we found that a positive phase of the IPO tends to cause cooling in the low latitudes and warming in the mid–high latitudes and that a negative phase of the IPO tends to cause warming in the low latitudes and cooling in the mid–high latitudes, which in turn can explain 54.4% and 35.8% of the two internally generated decadal changes in the MTC, respectively. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), when in the same phase as the IPO, exhibits an opposing pattern of surface air temperature. This only had a significant influence in the late 1990s, where it explained 37.9% of the internally generated decadal changes in the MTC. Our findings highlight that internal variability, especially that relating to the IPO and the AMO, should be considered when predicting future changes in thermal conditions in East Asia and its adjacent regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of boreal winter–peaked La Niña on the following-summer precipitation in East Asia through intermediate sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies playing the role of relay in observation and numerical models. There are widespread dry conditions in both North and South China and wet conditions in coastal areas of central and eastern China. Such a pattern is mainly attributed to an anomalous low pressure over the western tropical Pacific and an anomalous anticyclone over northeast Asia. It is found that the delayed impact of La Niña on the East Asian climate is operated through intermediate SST anomalies—the Z-shape cold SST anomalies in the tropical North Pacific. There might be three ways for the SST anomalies to operate. First, they produce tropical atmospheric perturbations that can penetrate into the subtropical jet through the westerly trough over the northeast subtropical Pacific, the wave train being then excited along the jet. Second, perturbations created through the monsoon trough over the western Pacific can directly stimulate northward-propagating Rossby waves along the East Asian coast, mainly at low level. And third, perturbations over the tropical Atlantic–northwest Africa can also trigger downstream propagating waves along the subtropical jet. The observation effects of the intermediate SST anomalies and their possible impact mechanisms on atmospheric circulation are largely reproduced within numerical simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the climatology and interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon based on the 1979--95 National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis. In addition to documenting the frequency, intensity, and preferred propagation tracks of cold surges and the evolution patterns of related fields, the authors discuss the temporal distribution of the Siberian high and cold surges. Further, the interannual variation of the cold surges and winter monsoon circulation and its relationship with ENSO were examined. There are on average 13 cold surges in each winter season (October--April), of which two are strong cases. The average intensity of cold surges, measured by maximum sea level pressure, is 1053 hPa. The cold surges originate from two source regions: 1) northwest of Lake Baikal, and 2) north of Lake Balkhash. The typical evolution of a cold surge occurs over a period of 5--14 days. Trajectory and correlation analyses indicate that, during this time, high pressure centers propagate southeastward around the edge of the Tibetan Plateau from the mentioned source regions. Some of these high pressure centers then move eastward and diminish over the oceans, while others proceed southward. The signatures of the associated temperature, wind, and pressure fields propagate farther southward and eastward. The affected area encompasses the bulk of the maritime continent. Although the intensity of the Siberian high peaks during December and January, the frequency of cold surges reaches a maximum in November and in March. This result suggests that November through March should be considered as the East Asian winter monsoon season. Two stratifications of cold surges are used to examine the relationship between ENSO and the interannual variation of the winter monsoon. The first one, described as conventional cold surges, indicates that the surge frequency reaches a minimum a year... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study first investigates the interannual variations in spring precipitation intraseasonal variability over southern China (SC). The results show that SC spring precipitation exhibits distinct intraseasonal variations with a period of 7–25 days. The first mode of 7–25-day precipitation intraseasonal variability (PIV) displays a monopole pattern over SC, and the PIV magnitude is largely determined by the upward motion intensity during intraseasonal precipitation events. Further analysis suggests that two atmospheric wave trains are observed during intraseasonal precipitation events, which propagate eastward from the North Atlantic along the northern and southern paths. In strong PIV years, the two wave trains can propagate to East Asia and show coordinated influences. The resultant low pressure to the west of SC causes strong upward motion and PIV over SC by bringing strong zonal vorticity and meridional temperature advection. In weak PIV years, the southern wave train can only propagate to the Bay of Bengal; therefore, the northern wave train plays a major role. The resultant low pressure is now over the upper to middle reaches of the Yangtze River, which causes relatively weak upward motion and PIV over SC by bringing weak meridional vorticity and temperature advection. Further analysis indicates that the sea surface temperature (SST) condition over the tropical Indian Ocean and the South China Sea is essential for southern wave train propagation. The warming SST over the regions can intensify westerlies to its north and consequently favors the propagation of the southern wave train to SC, eventually contributing to strong PIV over SC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) pattern, called the Asia–Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension–North America (AKNA) pattern, is identified over the pan–North Pacific region (85°E–85°W, 25°–65°N) based on NCEP reanalysis data. The AKNA pattern is likely to influence the climate of the extratropical area of Asia and North America via two SAT dipoles and has a significant impact on the wintertime extremely cold weather along the eastern coastal regions of East Asia. Simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model indicate that wintertime sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension (KOE) region can force an equivalent barotropic atmospheric ridge downstream and weaken the Siberian high and Alaska atmospheric ridge, resulting in the formation of the AKNA pattern. This circulation pattern tends to intensify the midlatitude (40°–60°N) westerlies over East Asia, which inhibits the southward invasion of the cold air into southern East Asia. Further diagnostic analysis indicates that the KOE SSTa can modulate the variation of storm track and westerlies by affecting baroclinic instability and eddy–mean flow interaction. Moreover, the KOE SSTa can provide a favorable environment for the development of the local atmospheric ascending motion and secondary circulation across the KOE SSTa, thereby affecting variability of the free atmosphere. Significance Statement: This study aims to build a connection between the wintertime extratropical climate and the variation of the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension. This work isolated a new wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) pattern over mid–high-latitude Asia and North America, which explains a considerable proportion of cold extremes over the eastern regions of East Asia. The reanalysis data and model simulations indicate that the temporal variability of the SAT pattern is influenced by the change of sea surface temperature in the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension. These findings emphasize the important role of midlatitude air–sea interaction in the modulation of the mid–high-latitude climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) has obvious characteristics of intraseasonal oscillation, but there are different inferences about its propagation. Based on observed precipitation and ERA5 data, the propagation diversity of summer quasi-biweekly precipitation in the MLYR is analyzed. The results show that summer precipitation in the MLYR has obvious quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) characteristics, and precipitation QBWO events can be classified into three categories: southward, northward, and local oscillation events. The frequency of southward events is significantly higher than that of northward or local oscillation events. For southward events, a wave train is observed in the mid–high latitudes and propagates southward in East Asia. The northward and local oscillation events are closely related to the QBWO of the northwest Pacific in low latitudes. The meridional asymmetry of quasi-biweekly divergence and background wind is responsible for the diversity of QBWO propagation. Quasi-biweekly convergence is usually located on the south of the quasi-biweekly cyclone, so the convergence interacts with geostrophic vorticity to guide the quasi-biweekly cyclone to move southward; in the southerly basic flow, north of the quasi-biweekly cyclone is positive relative vorticity advection, which leads the quasi-biweekly cyclone to move northward. Therefore, quasi-biweekly disturbances originating from north of the MLYR, with weak basic wind, mainly move southward under the influence of convergence. However, quasi-biweekly disturbances at low latitudes move northward under the guidance of relative vorticity advection due to the strong basic flow. A disturbance originating from the MLYR presents local oscillation under the coaction of quasi-biweekly relative vorticity advection and divergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies that directly affect the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River basin (YRB). In the lower troposphere, the tropical circulation anomalies that enhance the YRB rainfall manifest as an anticyclonic anomaly over the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and the extratropical circulation anomalies are characterized by northeasterly anomalies to the north of the YRB. It is found that the heavier the YRB rainfall, the more necessary the cooperation between the tropical WNP anticyclonic anomaly and the midlatitude northeasterly anomalies, and compared to the tropical WNP anticyclonic anomaly, the midlatitude northeasterly anomalies can more efficiently induce the YRB rainfall. Further results indicate that the tropical WNP anticyclonic anomaly exhibits notable quasi-biweekly feature and provides a favorable background for the enhanced YRB rainfall. By contrast, the northeasterly anomalies are dominated by synoptic variability. Furthermore, there are significant precursor signals for the lower-tropospheric northeasterly anomalies. These signals manifest as the eastward propagation of two wave trains in the upper troposphere: a midlatitude one and a high-latitude one, which tend to be independent. The midlatitude one originates around the Mediterranean Sea and propagates eastward along the Asian westerly jet. The high-latitude one propagates over the high-latitude Eurasian continent, from Europe eastward to Lake Baikal and then southeastward to East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency of large-scale anomalous precipitation events over China has increased during 1961–2018. However, it remains challenging to understand the mechanisms associated with these anomalous events showing different spatial patterns. Here, we applied an autoencoder technique to identify large-scale anomalous precipitation events for both observations and model simulations, which were then classified into several patterns through a self-organizing map method. The synoptic behavior and atmospheric circulation background of different anomalous patterns were also analyzed using simultaneous composite analyses. Results show that occurrences of different anomalous precipitation patterns have increased significantly, except those centered in North China, Northeast China, and the Yangtze River basin. The anomalous precipitation patterns manifest various intraseasonal distributions, which are linked to zonal oscillations of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and meridional displacements of East Asia westerly jet (EAJ). Accompanied by the westward movement of WNPSH, anticyclonic systems transport warm moist air from the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea to converge with the cold air caused by anomalous cyclones over the northwest flank of the WNPSH, leading to large-scale anomalous precipitation in these regions. Besides WNPSH, the northward and southward displacements of EAJ also favor the occurrence of anomalous precipitation events in northern and southern China, respectively. Our study also illustrates that the occurrence frequency of anomalous precipitation events is projected to increase remarkably under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP585) scenario by rates of twofold to fourfold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) across time scales has been an interesting topic for decades. In this study, we quantitatively investigate the EASM–EAWM relationship at the obliquity time scales using a set of accelerated transient simulations. By comparing different indices defined with different variables, we find that the EASM and EAWM intensities are positively correlated under obliquity forcing. High obliquity leads to warmer summertime and cooler wintertime surface temperatures, with a stronger response observed over land than over the oceans. The warmer summertime and cooler wintertime temperature responses are accompanied by a strengthened Asian low in summer and Siberian high in winter, with enhanced southerlies in summer and northerlies in winter, indicating an enhanced EASM and EAWM. Modulated by ice sheet forcing, however, the evolution of the simulated EAWM shifts toward the ice sheet maximum, such that the circulation-based EASM–EAWM relationship in the realistically forced simulation exhibits a phase shift of approximately 11 kyr, closer to the phase between the composite δ18O and loess grain size in observations. Our results may have implications for better understanding the distinct changes in the proxy-based EASM–EAWM relationship before and after the rapid growth of global ice volume at around 3 Ma. Significance Statement: Studying the relationship between the EASM and EAWM can help us understand the characteristics and mechanisms of the regional climate in response to external forcings at different time scales. By investigating the EASM–EAWM relationship over the past 300 000 years, we find that, forced by obliquity variations, the EASM and EAWM are positively correlated at the obliquity time scales. The ice sheet forcing, meanwhile, also influences the circulation over East Asia and modulates the evolutionary phases between the EASM and EAWM. Our results highlight the importance of the combined impacts of orbital parameters and ice sheets on past climate changes over Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ENSO shows great diversity in temporal evolution, exerting different climatic impacts on the global scale. Previous studies suggest that summer ENSOs can be classified into two types with different evolutions: "continuing ENSOs" persist from the previous winter and "emerging ENSOs" newly develop from late spring. In this study, we define two indices for continuing and emerging ENSOs via the linear combination of the two leading modes of the evolutionary anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) from the prior September to August, which reflects the distinct characteristics of the two types of ENSO well. The two types of ENSO dominate the two leading modes of the SST variability in the tropical Indo–western Pacific (TIWP) and the related Asian summer monsoon anomalies. During continuing ENSOs, the related TIWP SST anomalies show positive anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific and negative ones in the New Guinea region. The warm Kelvin wave forced by the tropical Indian Ocean warming propagates into the tropical western Pacific, exciting the meridional East Asia–Pacific/Pacific–Japan pattern and causing a dipole precipitation pattern in East Asia. During emerging ENSOs, the related TIWP SST anomalies show negative anomalies in the warm pool and positive ones in the western Indian Ocean. The negative SST anomalies in the warm pool induce a westward equatorial Rossby wave conducive to the suppression of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, whereas the Matsuno–Gill response to the warm pool cooling leads to negative anomalies in East Asian summer rainfall. This mechanism can be simulated well in the CMIP6 and Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere experiments. Significance Statement: ENSO displays diversity in its amplitude, spatial pattern, temporal evolution, and impact. Although previous studies have systematically investigated the diversity of ENSO spatial locations, there are few studies on the diversity of ENSO evolution and the impacts on the Asian summer monsoon. Here, we define two indices for so-called continuing and emerging ENSOs via the linear combination of the two leading modes of the evolutionary anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) from the prior September to August. Then, we reveal that the two leading modes of the tropical Indo–western Pacific SST variability are dominated by the two types of ENSO, respectively, and act as a bridge via which the two types of ENSO can exert different impacts on the Asian summer monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subseasonal forecasts have recently attracted widespread interest yet remain a challenging issue. A statistical Kalman filter pattern projection method (KFPPM), which absorbs the projection conception of the raw covariance pattern projection (COVPPM) and the adaptive adjustments of the Kalman filter, is proposed to calibrate the single-model forecasts of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) for lead times of 8-42 days over East Asia in 2018 derived from the UKMO control (CTL) forecast. The Kalman filter-based gridly calibration (KFGC) is carried out in parallel as a benchmark, which could improve the forecast skills to a certain extent. The COVPPM effectively calibrates the temperature forecasts at the early stage and displays better performances than the CTL and KFGC. However, with the growing lead times, it shows speedily decreasing skills and can no longer produce positive adjustments over the areas outside the plateaus. By contrast, the KFPPM consistently outperforms the other calibrations and reduces the forecast errors by almost 1.0° and 0.5°C for Tmax and Tmin, respectively, both retaining superiorities to the random climatology benchmark till the lead time of 24 days. The optimization of KFPPM maintains throughout the whole range of the subseasonal time scale, showing the most conspicuous improvements distributed over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings. Though the postprocessing procedures are more skillful in calibrating Tmax forecasts than Tmin forecasts, the Tmax forecasts are still characterized by lower skills than the latter. Case experiments further demonstrate the abovementioned features and imply the potential capability of KFPPM in improving forecast skills and disaster preventions for extreme temperature events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both South Asia and East Asia are the most polluted regions of the world. Unlike East Asia, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over South Asia keeps increasing for all recent years, which calls for more attention. This study investigates the impacts of anthropogenic emissions over South Asia on the downstream regional climate during spring with the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). The model results suggest that South Asian pollutants have significant impacts on East Asian spring climate, and the impacts could be even larger than locally emitted aerosols. Two possible dynamical pathways (i.e., the northern and the southern pathways) bridging South Asian aerosol forcing and East Asian climate are proposed, and both ways are associated with the black carbon (BC)-induced climate feedbacks surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The northern pathway is mainly due to the TP warming induced by the BC snow darkening effect (SDE), which significantly reduces the surface air temperature (SAT) over northern East Asia. BC-induced TP warming increases the meridional thermal gradient and accelerates the midlatitude jet stream, which favors the cold-air advection over northern East Asia. The southern pathway is associated with the BC "elevated heat pump" hypothesis, which mainly affects the precipitation in southern East Asia. BC from South Asia accumulates near the south slope of TP, inducing an abnormal ascending motion near the Bay of Bengal. A compensating anomalous sinking motion is then forced in South China, which suppresses the precipitation there. A primary observational analysis is also performed to verify both dynamical pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled climate models project robust wintertime wetting trend over midlatitude East Asia under global warming scenarios, but the projected change in precipitation shows large intermodel uncertainty over subtropical East Asia from southern China to southwestern Japan. Based on an ensemble of climate models participating in CMIP6, this study shows that the weakened southern branch westerly jet (SWJ) on the southern side of Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays a key role in suppressing subtropical East Asian precipitation. The SWJ is deflected into southwesterly wind on the southeastern side of TP, bringing ascent and precipitation to subtropical East Asia primarily through isentropic gliding. As a result of the poleward and upward shift of the planetary-scale westerly jet under global warming, the SWJ becomes weaker and it acts to suppress subtropical East Asian precipitation by weakening the southwesterly wind and ascent. The SWJ-precipitation linkage also exists on interannual time scales, but the sensitivity of precipitation to interannual SWJ variability is systematically underestimated by the models compared with observation. The combined effects of the change in SWJ strength and the sensitivity of precipitation to SWJ explain about 40% of the intermodel spread of the projected precipitation changes. Observational constraint on the SWJ--precipitation relationship amplifies the projected drying trend and narrows the intermodel spread. It shows that the regional-averaged precipitation over subtropical East Asia decreases by 3.3% per degree of warming, and the amplitude of precipitation reduction over subtropical East Asia (southern China) is about 1.4 (3.4) times the raw projection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian summer climate displays a marked change after the late 1990s. This is principally due to a weakening of the Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern that was a dominant driver of precipitation variability over East Asia. Nevertheless, western Japan has frequently experienced heavy rainfall events over the past several years. Atmospheric reanalysis and observational datasets are used to investigate summer precipitation variability over East Asia in a view of interdecadal changes from 1979 to 2020. East Asian summer precipitation has increased the most in Japan, especially over and around the Southwest Islands in southern Japan, where cumulus convection has been more dominant for the characteristic of precipitation variability including mei-yu–baiu rainfall than frontal structure since the mid-2000s. Atmospheric analysis in vertical structures and convective instability indicates that moist instability is neutralized by cumulus convection over the southern East China Sea and off the Pacific coast of Japan, where recent warming in sea surface temperature (SST) along the Kuroshio exceeds the SST threshold for convection. This decadal shift in precipitation variability has a close relationship with the second precipitation mode over East Asia, which has taken the place of the PJ pattern as a leading driver of precipitation variability over western Japan in the past decade. The enhanced cumulus convection is enabled to act as a forcing mechanism for the Rossby wave train from East Asia toward North America along the westerly jet or for the eastward extension of the Silk Road pattern, which possibly favors a heatwave in the Pacific Northwest areas of North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reveals that the relationship between autumn north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and Northeast China's winter snowfall (NECWS) undergoes a remarkable interdecadal enhancement after 2001. Previous research confirmed that the relationship between the NTA SST anomaly and atmospheric circulation experienced interdecadal changes after the 2000s and suggested various reasons for this phenomenon. During 1961–2000, the NTA SST anomaly has a significantly positive correlation with other oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), and the latter modulates the former's impact on atmospheric circulations over the Eurasian continent with a cancelling effect, which results in a weaker relationship of the NTA SST anomaly and NECWS. In contrast, the warm NTA SST anomaly is relatively independent from other oceans during 2001–20, and it proves to be the forcing factor for NECWS since its solo influence on the winter atmospheric circulations initiated from the North Atlantic to East Asia is more robust, featuring the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and a downstream quasi-barotropic Rossby wave train over the mid- to high latitudes of Eurasian continent. Accordingly, together with the deepened East Asian trough and the strongly northward transported humid and warm air from the western Pacific, the local significantly enhanced ascending motions with cooling temperature favor much more NECWS. The linear baroclinic model simulates the effects of NTA and TIO SST anomalies on winter atmospheric circulations, corroborating the aforementioned results. Such results can be used for the prediction of NECWS with respect to the precursor of the autumn NTA SST anomaly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the most dominant tropical climate mode on the interannual time scale, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is suggested to significantly influence the interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall (IEASMR). However, the leading mode of IEASMR remains almost untouched when the impacts of preceding ENSO events are linearly removed, suggesting the existence of alternative impact factors and predictability sources of IEASMR. After removing the impact of ENSO, the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over both the tropical Atlantic and extratropical North Atlantic are found to be related to IEASMR through atmospheric teleconnections. Positive SSTA over the tropical Atlantic could induce tropical diabatic heating, which triggers an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave train emanating from the Atlantic, going across the Eurasian continent, and ending with a cyclonic anomaly over northeast Asia. The tropical diabatic heating could also induce western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone via tropical routes. The dipole SSTA pattern with cooling in the west and warming in the east over the extratropical North Atlantic induces local circulation anomalies through heat flux exchange, which could further perturb a Rossby wave train with a cyclonic anomaly over northeast Asia, thus modulating IEASMR. Numerical experiments with prescribed atmospheric heating associated with Atlantic SSTAs could realistically reproduce these teleconnections toward IEASMR. By adding the predictability sources of Atlantic SSTAs, the seasonal hindcast skills of IEASMR could be significantly improved over both the tropical western North Pacific and subtropical land regions such as central China and Japan. Significance Statement: The purpose of this article is to identify the alternative impact factors of the interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall (IEASMR), after removing the impact of ENSO, considering the limited contribution of ENSO to the variances of IEASMR. Here, we find that the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) play a considerable role in driving IEASMR. The impact of ENSO on IEASMR is mainly confined to the tropical western North Pacific, while the Atlantic SSTAs influence rainfall over subtropical East Asia and the tropical western North Pacific through both tropical and extratropical routes. The results unravel the important roles of Atlantic SSTAs in driving ENSO-independent IEASMR, which will have a large implication for the seasonal prediction of East Asian summer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parameterization schemes such as soil thermal conductivity (STC) have an important impact on precipitation simulation. The precipitation in the rainy season (April–September) is the main factor affecting aridification in northern China. However, it is unclear how STC affects precipitation simulation during the rainy season. In this study, comparative experiments were conducted using the regional climate model RegCM4.6 coupled with the third-generation land surface model NCAR CLM4.5 to assess the effect of the Johansen and Lu–Ren STC schemes on precipitation. The results show that the STC had a significant effect on the simulation of rainy season precipitation and its variation in northern China. The precipitation variation characteristics simulated by the Lu–Ren scheme were closer than that of the Johansen scheme to the observation. The difference in land surface temperatures (LSTs) simulated by the two STC schemes could be a major cause of the sensitivity in the simulated precipitation. When the local LST increases by 1 K, precipitation decreases by 5–30 mm in most areas of northern China. The numerical experiments revealed that the rise of LST increases the longwave radiation, reduces the surface net radiation, and causes the redistribution of sensible and latent heat flux, forming local water vapor and thermal conditions that are not conducive to precipitation. Moreover, the difference of LST significantly changes the 500-hPa large-scale circulation field, the 700-hPa vapor transportation, and its divergence. The combined action of local heat, water vapor, and large-scale circulation factors reduces the precipitation in the rainy season. On the other side, the variation of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) affects the soil water content. In addition, a new STC scheme was added to NCAR CLM4.5, promoting the development of this land surface model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While enhanced rainbands progressed northward in East Asia from June to August during the regular El Niño decaying summer, strengthened rainbands were only observed in the earlier summer and disappeared in August in the super El Niño composite. The cause of this distinctive feature is investigated through a combined observational and modeling study. The relative roles of the mean state and anomalous heating in causing the northward progression in the regular El Niño group are assessed through idealized numerical experiments. The result shows that the monthly evolving mean state is more important, while the anomalous forcing also plays a role. The distinctive rainfall feature in the super El Niño composite was primarily contributed by the 1982/83 and 2015/16 events, whereas the rainband evolution in 1998 resembled the regular El Niño composite. The cause of the different rainfall pattern in August among the super El Niño events is further investigated. A marked difference exists in the tropical sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and associated anomalous precipitation patterns. A low-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly appeared south of Japan in August 1983 and 2016 (1998), inducing northerly (southerly) anomalies and thus suppressed (enhanced) rainfall in eastern China. Whereas an anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific (WNP) is a typical response to an El Niño during its mature and decaying phases, the formation of a cyclonic anomaly in the WNP resulted from anomalous enthalpy advection associated with the eastward retreat of an anomalous anticyclone triggered by a local cold SSTA belt in August 1983 and from a Pacific meridional mode (PMM)-like positive SSTA pattern in August 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to better understand the ENSO impacts on climate anomalies over East Asia in early winter (November–December) and late winter (January–February). In particular, the possible mechanisms during early winter are investigated. The results show that ENSO is associated with a Rossby wave train emanating from the tropical Indian Ocean toward East Asia (denoted as tIO-EA) in early winter. This tIO-EA wave train in El Niño (La Niña) is closely related to a weakening (strengthening) of the East Asian trough, and thereby a weakened (strengthened) East Asian winter monsoon and warm (cold) temperature anomalies over northeastern China and Japan. By using partial regression analysis and numerical experiments, we identify that the formation of tIO-EA wave train is closely related to precipitation anomalies in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific (denoted as eIO/wP). In addition, the ENSO-induced North Atlantic anomalies may also contribute to formation of the tIO-EA wave train in conjunction with the eIO/wP precipitation. The response of eIO/wP precipitation to ENSO is stronger in early winter than in late winter. This can be attributed to the stronger anomalous Walker circulation over the Indian Ocean, which in turn is caused by higher climatological SST and stronger mean precipitation state in the Indian Ocean during early winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the winter and subsequent spring of an El Niño year, the East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) exhibits positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and fewer low clouds, while the western North Pacific experiences negative SSTAs. In this study, we suggest that the positive SSTAs in EAMS are maintained by a positive low cloud–SST feedback. In neutral winters and springs, the EAMS is covered by low clouds, which have a cooling effect on surface temperatures. During an El Niño year, a western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone is established, and along its northwestern flank, there are favorable conditions for convergence of moisture and weaker surface latent heat flux over the EAMS. Once a positive SSTA has been established, a further reduction of turbulent mixing results in less low cloud and enhanced solar heating of the ocean mixed layer; this reinforces and maintains both the positive SSTA and the lack of low cloud via a positive feedback mechanism. The concurrent increase of low cloud–SST feedback and anticyclone circulation strengths is evident in the coupled-model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments, performed with the atmospheric components of Community Earth System Model (CESM2), reveal that a positive SSTA helps to maintain the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Four pacemaker-coupled experiments by CESM2, with sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific restored to the observational anomalies plus the model climatology and altered low cloud feedback over EAMS, suggest that the low cloud–SST feedback results in more than the maintenance of a positive SSTA over the EAMS: the positive feedback is also a previously overlooked mechanism for the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Significance Statement: The East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) and western North Pacific are important areas that bridge El Niño and the climate of East Asia. Unlike the cold sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the western North Pacific during El Niño, the positive SSTA over EAMS, which is covered by winter low cloud, has received less attention. We suggest that a "low cloud–SST" feedback—namely, one in which decreasing low-level clouds allows more sunlight to strike the ocean surface and favors higher SST—maintains the positive SSTA over EAMS. We also configure a widely used atmospheric model with a set of preset SSTA patterns that mimic different climate patterns. Our experiments with different climate patterns and CMIP6 historical runs show that the low cloud–SST feedback (through the positive SSTA) is a possible supplementary mechanism for reinforcing the WNP anomalous anticyclone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation change is critical for the Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region, which serves downstream communities in East Asia. The spring (March–May) precipitation over the TRH region shows an increasing trend from 1979 to 2018, as revealed by a Chinese gridded precipitation product (CN05.1). However, the physical processes responsible for this precipitation change are still unclear. This study investigated the characteristics of spring precipitation and the water budget over the TRH region using the ERA5 global reanalysis and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. The WRF version employed in this study includes online calculations of the atmospheric water budget and an evapotranspiration (ET) tagging procedure to trace evapotranspired water in the atmosphere. Both ERA5 and WRF reproduce the spring precipitation increase. Moreover, WRFD02 (with a 3-km domain) reduces the wet bias by around 60% and 77% compared to WRFD01 (9 km) and ERA5 (30 km). Both ERA5 and WRF demonstrate that the increase of spring precipitation is dominated by moisture convergence, especially the atmospheric water fluxes from the southern boundary. The enhanced moisture inflow is sustained by enhanced mass flux while the enhanced moisture outflow is sustained by increased moisture. The ET-tagging results further demonstrate the weakened precipitation recycling process because of the significant increase of precipitation produced by external moisture. Compared to ERA5, the reduced wet bias with WRF is attributed to a better spatial resolution of orographic barrier effects, which reduce the southerly water fluxes. The results highlight the potential of regional climate downscaling to better represent the atmospheric water budget in complex terrain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air quality over the North China Plain (NCP) and rainfall over southern China exhibit robust and correlated interannual variations during winter from 1979 to 2018. A correlation coefficient of 0.7 between the PM2.5 concentration over the NCP and rainfall in southern China indicates that poor air quality and rainfall are linked (referred to as the south rainfall–north pollution pattern), which is likely due to the strong eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño. In the mature phase of the strong EP El Niño, the Northeast Asian anomalous anticyclone (NAAA) is strengthened by two Rossby wave trains modulated by warmer sea surface temperatures. One wave train is directly related to the strong EP El Niño and originates in the tropical eastern Pacific, propagating eastward to East Asia along the middle and high latitudes, which weakens the Ural ridge and strengthens the NAAA. The other wave train is derived from the northern Indian Ocean and propagates into East Asia along the great circle route, which strengthens an anomalous cyclone in southern China and the NAAA. This results in an anomalous horizontal trough of 850 hPa being captured in eastern China at ∼30°N. The southwesterly flow along the southern margin of the trough transports abundant moisture to southern China, which leads to heavy rainfall in southern China combined with an anomalous ascending motion related to the anomalous cyclone. The southeasterly flow to the north of the trough weakens the East Asia winter monsoon due to a weakened Ural ridge, which then leads to a high PM2.5 concentrations over the NCP with the help of an anomalous descending motion related to the NAAA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region play a key role in influencing midlatitude climate variations. This study investigates the impacts of SSTAs in the KE region (KE-SSTA) on East Asian climate during boreal autumn. The results reveal that positive KE-SSTA, changing the meridional temperature gradient in the lower troposphere, contributes to the formation of an anomalous quasi-barotropic anticyclonic circulation (AC) over the KE region. Such a configuration tends to be affected by wind through thermal wind adjustment. Simultaneously, it is also impacted by eddy activity related to the strengthened atmospheric baroclinicity through transient eddy feedback. By both means, obvious descending motion and warm advection are generated, which increases tropospheric temperature through adiabatic heating and further maintains the abnormal AC over the KE region. This anomalous circulation changes wind in the east of the East Asian trough, which favors the transportation of warm and wet air from the midlatitude northwest Pacific and further causes the increase of temperature in northeastern East Asia. Moreover, it also leads to the convergence and divergence of water vapor fluxes in Northeast Asia and eastern North China, favoring the increase and decrease of precipitation in the two regions, respectively. The above responsive characteristics of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to positive KE-SSTA can be confirmed by numerical experiments. These results suggest that anomalous SST in the KE region can be used as a potentially effective predictability source for autumn climate variations in the mid- to high latitudes of East Asia. Significance Statement: Anomalous variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region play an essential role in influencing midlatitude climate variations. Considering the importance of autumn climate in East Asia to agricultural production, this study aims to explore the relationship between the East Asian climate and autumn SST anomaly in the KE region (KE-SSTA), and to understand how KE-SSTA effects East Asian climate during boreal autumn. Our results suggest that KE-SSTA can be used as one of the effective predictors of East Asian climate, which will contribute to the improvement of short-term climate prediction levels over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though winter land–sea thermal contrast (LSC) is expected to undergo a strong weakening in the future warmer climate, its effects have been poorly investigated. Here we run a set of idealized winter simulations featuring reduced LSC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, or in individual extratropical sectors of the NH (Atlantic and Pacific), using an intermediate-complexity atmospheric general circulation model. Reduced LSC is obtained by imposing a warming of surface land temperatures in East Asia and North America. For similar warming intensities over the two regions, the response of the model to East Asia forcing is significantly stronger and dominates the response to the sum of the two forcing patterns. We find that the LSC reduction causes a weakening and poleward shift of the midlatitude jet streams, and a strong interference with zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2. In particular, East Asian warming reduces the amplitude of waves 1 and 2, producing a strengthening of the stratospheric vortex, while a weaker vortex due to a moderate amplification of wave 1 is detected when warming North America. Eventually, stratospheric signals propagate downward in the troposphere affecting the midlatitude winter NH even remotely from the forcing. In this work we pinpoint some mechanisms by which weakened winter LSC influences the NH extratropical circulation: the results may become useful to interpret the response to long-term projections displaying reduced LSC along with other climate change forcing patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of stratospheric polar vortex shift on the wintertime East Asian trough (EAT) on intraseasonal time scales are investigated using a reanalysis dataset and a climate model. The result based on composite analysis shows that the shift of the stratospheric polar vortex toward eastern Siberia (ES-shift event) is associated with higher geopotential height at 500 hPa than normal over East Asia, corresponding to the weakened EAT. Furthermore, the simulated EAT is also weakened when nudging the stratospheric state toward that during the ES-shift events. This study further found that there is no significant difference in the stratospheric polar vortex intensity between the ES-shift events and nonshift events, implying that the polar vortex strength change may have little influence on the possible connection between the polar vortex shift and the EAT change. The underlying mechanisms are listed as follows: First, the positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in the lower stratosphere associated with ES-shift events could explain approximately 40% of the local westerly anomalies in the upper troposphere to the north of East Asia via PV conservation, leading to the rise of the geopotential height over East Asia and the weakening of the EAT. Second, the shift of stratospheric polar vortex could modulate the synoptic-scale Rossby wave activity in the upper troposphere, favorable for the southward propagation of synoptic-scale waves and divergence of extended Eliassen-Palm flux in the upper troposphere. Finally, the transient wave feedback could enhance the tropospheric westerly anomalies in the north of East Asia and induce positive height anomalies to its south, further weakening the EAT. Our results revealed that the stratospheric polar vortex shift leads the EAT intensity variation by around 2-5 days, implying that the stratospheric polar vortex shift could be applicable to the prediction of the EAT intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer mean (June, July, and August) surface air temperature (SSAT) in East Asia during the period from 1958 to 2001 has shown a warming. However, the relative contributions of external forcing (EF) and internal climate variability (ICV) to the SSAT changes over East Asia remain unclear. In this study, a new approach is applied to estimate the changes in the SSAT determined by the effects of EF and ICV over East Asia during the period from 1958 to 2001. Reanalysis data as well as simulated results from both global atmosphere–ocean coupled model outputs and a regional climate model (RCM) are used for this approach. The observed SSATs over East Asia have undergone a decreasing trend from 1958 to 1972 (20.148C decade-1, p<0.01) and an increasing trend after 1972 (0.248C decade-1, p<0.01). While these features are not captured by the reanalysis studied here, they are reproduced when the reanalysis output is downscaled using an RCM. The effects of the EF and the ICV on the SSAT can be separated based on the RCM downscaling simulation. The results show that the SSAT with EF displayed significant warming over most regions of East Asia, whereas the SSAT with ICV mainly exhibited cooling over East Asia. Furthermore, EF mainly influenced the decadal changes of the SSAT, whereas the ICV mainly influenced the interannual changes in the SSAT over East Asia. The interannual changes of the SSAT over East Asia that were influenced by the ICV are mainly manifested as the combined effects of the large-scale ocean–atmosphere circulations, which expressed 79% explanatory power on the SSAT changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiscale processes from synoptic disturbances to diurnal cycles during the record-breaking heavy rainfall in summer 2020 were examined in this study. The heavy rainfall consisted of eight episodes, each lasting about 5 days, and were associated with two types of synoptic disturbances. The type-1 episodes featured a northwestward extending western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), while the type-2 episodes had approaching midlatitude troughs with southward retreat in the WPSH. Each heavy rainfall episode had 2–3 occurrences of nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs), in close association with intense rainfall in the early morning. The NLLJs formed partly due to the geostrophic wind by increased pressure gradients under both types of synoptic disturbances. The NLLJs were also driven by the ageostrophic wind that veered to maximum southerlies at late night due to the boundary layer inertial oscillation. The diurnal amplitudes of low-level southerlies increased remarkably after the onset of type-1 episodes, in which the extending WPSH provided strong daytime heating from solar radiation. By contrast, the wind diurnal amplitudes were less changed after the onset of type-2 episodes. The NLLJs strengthened the mesoscale low-level ascent, net moisture flux convergence, and convective instability in elevated warm moist air, which led to the upscale growth of MCSs at the northern terminus of the LLJ after midnight. The MCSs-induced mei-yu rainband was reestablished in Central China during the type-1 episodes with the increased diurnal variations. The findings highlight that the regional diurnal cycles of low-level winds in response to synoptic disturbances can strongly regulate mesoscale convective activities in a downscaling manner, and thus produce heavy rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies focused on the intense TCs in the central-southeastern western North Pacific (WNP), whose variability is intimately linked to El Niñno-Southern Oscillation and the extratropical sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the Pacific. Compared with them, weak TCs (WTCs) are more numerous and form farther northwestward. The great number of WTCs and thereby the landfall cases may also cause huge damage to countries in Southeast Asia. However, their modulators are far from fully understood. Our research emphasizes the delayed impact of the early spring North Atlantic tripole SSTA (NAT) on the WTC formation frequency through the "capacitor" effect of sea ice (SIC) and SST in the Barents Sea. Detailed analysis indicates that a positive NAT may modulate an anomalous high in the Barents Sea-North Europe and decrease the local low cloud cover. Thus, more downward solar radiation tends to heat the local SST and decrease the SIC. This warmer Barents Sea could maintain through the typhoon season and excite a significant southeastward wave train, with several centers in the Arctic, central Asia, and East Asia. The abnormal easterly wind to the south of the anticyclone in East Asia facilitates the cyclonic anomaly in the South China Sea, the Philippines, and the subtropical WNP, which reinforces the local monsoon trough and favors the WTC formation there. A physical-based empirical model is developed for the WTC frequency, and hindcast is performed from 1979 to 2018. It shows the early spring NAT effectively improves the prediction skill for the WTC frequency, which can be considered as a crucial source of predictability forWTCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indochina Peninsula (ICP) has a critical effect in shaping the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, the seasonal responses of the ASM to the ICP are not fully understood. This study employs a 18 atmospheric general circulation model to examine the different contributions of the ICP's orography and land-sea contrast to the ASM during the early and late summer. Results indicate that the orographic effect increases South Asian rainfall and reduces the rainfall over the South China Sea (SCS) and North China in early summer, but its influence on monsoonal circulation and rainfall is limited to East Asia in late summer. The impact of the ICP's land-sea contrast is basically opposite in the two summer stages. With the presence of the ICP, SCS rainfall is enhanced but South Asian rainfall is weakened in early summer. In late summer, however, rainfall from the ICP to the northwestern Pacific is strikingly reduced, accompanied by intensified rainfall over South Asia. Relatively, the orographic effect seems to be more important in modulating the South Asian monsoon in early summer, while the land-sea contrast is dominant in strengthening the SCS monsoon and suppressing the northwest Pacific monsoon via the interaction between the induced local circulation and multilevel ASM subsystems. In late summer, the orographic effect on the ASM is much weaker compared to the land-sea contrast, which plays a critical role by shifting the subtropical high southwestward and through the "thermal adaption" feedback mechanism. Therefore, the orographic impact of the ICP on the ASM differs from that of the land-sea contrast in the two summer stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]