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ImportanceAdjusting quality measures used in pay-for-performance programs for social risk factors remains controversial.ObjectiveTo illustrate a structured, transparent approach to decision-making about adjustment for social risk factors for a measure of clinician quality that assesses acute admissions for patients with multiple chronic conditions (MCCs).Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis retrospective cohort study used 2017 and 2018 Medicare administrative claims and enrollment data, 2013 to 2017 American Community Survey data, and 2018 and 2019 Area Health Resource Files. Patients were Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries 65 years or older with at least 2 of 9 chronic conditions (acute myocardial infarction, Alzheimer disease/dementia, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma, depression, diabetes, heart failure, and stroke/transient ischemic attack). Patients were attributed to clinicians in the Merit-Based Incentive Payment System (MIPS; primary health care professionals or specialists) using a visit-based attribution algorithm. Analyses were conducted between September 30, 2017, and August 30, 2020.ExposuresSocial risk factors included low Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Socioeconomic Status Index, low physician-specialist density, and Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility.Main Outcomes and MeasuresNumber of acute unplanned hospital admissions per 100 person-years at risk for admission. Measure scores were calculated for MIPS clinicians with at least 18 patients with MCCs assigned to them.ResultsThere were 4 659 922 patients with MCCs (mean [SD] age, 79.0 [8.0] years; 42.5% male) assigned to 58 435 MIPS clinicians. The median (IQR) risk-standardized measure score was 38.9 (34.9-43.6) per 100 person-years. Social risk factors of low Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Socioeconomic Status Index, low physician-specialist density, and Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility were significantly associated with the risk of hospitalization in the univariate models (relative risk [RR], 1.14 [95% CI, 1.13-1.14], RR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.04-1.06], and RR, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.43-1.45], respectively), but the association was attenuated in adjusted models (RR, 1.11 [95% CI 1.11-1.12] for dual eligibility). Across MIPS clinicians caring for variable proportions of dual-eligible patients with MCCs (quartile 1, 0%-3.1%; quartile 2, >3.1%-9.5%; quartile 3, >9.5%-24.5%, and quartile 4, >24.5%-100%), median measure scores per quartile were 37.4, 38.6, 40.0, and 39.8 per 100 person-years, respectively. Balancing conceptual considerations, empirical findings, programmatic structure, and stakeholder input, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services decided to adjust the final model for the 2 area-level social risk factors but not dual Medicare-Medicaid eligibility.Conclusions and RelevanceThis cohort study demonstrated that adjustment for social risk factors in outcome measures requires weighing high-stake, competing concerns. A structured approach that includes evaluation of conceptual and contextual factors, as well as empirical findings, with active engagement of stakeholders can be used to make decisions about social risk factor adjustment.

This study uses national death certificate data to characterize trends in death and excess mortality from drug overdoses, homicides, unintentional injuries, motor vehicle crashes, and suicide during the first 6 months of the pandemic in the US.

Low-income older adults who are dually eligible (DE) for Medicare and Medicaid often experience worse outcomes following hospitalization. Among other federal policies aimed at improving health for DE patients, Medicare has recently begun reporting disparities in within-hospital readmissions. The degree to which disparities for DE patients are owing to differences in community-level factors or, conversely, are amenable to hospital quality improvement, remains heavily debated.To examine the extent to which within-hospital disparities in 30-day readmission rates for DE patients are ameliorated by state- and community-level factors.In this retrospective cohort study, Centers for MedicareMedicaid Services (CMS) Disparity Methods were used to calculate within-hospital disparities in 30-day risk-adjusted readmission rates for DE vs non-DE patients in US hospitals participating in Medicare. All analyses were performed in February and March 2019. The study included Medicare patients (aged ≥65 years) hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), or pneumonia in 2014 to 2017.Within-hospital disparities, as measured by the rate difference (RD) in 30-day readmission between DE vs non-DE patients following admission for AMI, HF, or pneumonia; variance across hospitals; and correlation of hospital RDs with and without adjustment for state Medicaid eligibility policies and community-level factors.The final sample included 475 444 patients admitted for AMI, 898 395 for HF, and 1 214 282 for pneumonia, of whom 13.2%, 17.4%, and 23.0% were DE patients, respectively. Dually eligible patients had higher 30-day readmission rates relative to non-DE patients (RD0) in 99.0% (AMI), 99.4% (HF), and 97.5% (pneumonia) of US hospitals. Across hospitals, the mean (IQR) RD between DE vs non-DE was 1.00% (0.87%-1.10%) for AMI, 0.82% (0.73%-0.96%) for HF, and 0.53% (0.37%-0.71%) for pneumonia. The mean (IQR) RD after adjustment for community-level factors was 0.87% (0.73%-0.97%) for AMI, 0.67% (0.57%-0.80%) for HF, and 0.42% (0.29%-0.57%) for pneumonia. Relative hospital rankings of corresponding within-hospital disparities before and after community-level adjustment were highly correlated (Pearson coefficient, 0.98).In this cohort study, within-hospital disparities in 30-day readmission for DE patients were modestly associated with differences in state Medicaid policies and community-level factors. This suggests that remaining variation in these disparities should be the focus of hospital efforts to improve the quality of care transitions at discharge for DE patients in efforts to advance equity.

Faust et al discuss the study which compares all-cause excess mortality and COVID-19-related mortality during the early pandemic period (March-July 2020) with unintentional drug overdoses, the usual leading cause of death in young adults, during the same period in 2018 among adults aged 25 to 44 years COVID-19 has caused a marked increase in all-cause deaths in the US, mostly among older adults Although the burden of COVID-19 among hospitalized younger adults has been described, fewer data focus on mortality in this demographic, owing to lower case-fatality rates

This cohort study analyzes Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data for heart failure and pneumonia discharges to ascertain hospital payment profiles associated with hospitalization costs for Medicare beneficiaries., Key Points Question Is the amount that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services pays hospitals associated with characteristics of the hospital independent of non–time-varying characteristics of patients? Findings In this cohort study of 1615 Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with heart failure and 708 beneficiaries hospitalized with pneumonia, the same patients admitted with the same diagnosis to hospitals in the highest Medicare payment quartile had higher costs than when they were admitted to hospitals in the lowest quartile. Meaning Findings from this study suggest that hospitals operate at different cost levels independent of their patients., Importance Some uncertainty exists about whether hospital variations in cost are largely associated with differences in case mix. Objective To establish whether the same patients admitted with the same diagnosis (heart failure or pneumonia) at 2 different hospitals incur different costs associated with the hospital’s Medicare payment profile. Design, Setting, and Participants This observational cohort study used Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) discharge data of patients with a principal diagnosis of heart failure (n = 1615) or pneumonia (n = 708) occurring between July 1, 2013, and June 30, 2016. Patients were individuals aged 65 years or older who were enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service Part A and Part B and were discharged from nonfederal, short-term, acute care or critical access hospitals in the United States. Data were analyzed from March 16, 2018, to September 25, 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures The CMS heart failure and pneumonia payment measure cohorts were divided into 2 random samples. In the first sample, hospitals were classified into payment quartiles for heart failure and pneumonia. In the second sample, patients with 2 admissions for heart failure or pneumonia, one in a lowest-quartile hospital and one in a highest-quartile hospital more than 1 month apart, were identified. Standardized Medicare payments for these patients were compared for the lowest- and the highest-quartile payment hospitals. Results The study sample included 1615 patients with heart failure (mean [SD] age, 78.7 [8.0] years; 819 [50.7%] male) and 708 with pneumonia (mean [SD] age, 78.3 [8.0] years; 401 [56.6%] male). The observed 30-day mortality rates for patients among lowest- compared with highest-payment hospitals were not significantly different. The median (interquartile range) hospital 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates were 8.1% (7.7%-8.5%) for heart failure and 11.3% (10.7%-12.1%) for pneumonia. The 30-day episode payment for hospitalization for the same patients at the lowest-payment hospitals was $2118 (95% CI, $1168-$3068; P

This comparative effectiveness study examines current US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services 30-day mortality risk models vs novel risk models for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia hospitalizations., Key Points Question Could present on admission indicators and ungrouped diagnostic codes enhance risk models for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia mortality measures and improve discrimination of hospital-level performance? Findings In this comparative effectiveness study including all Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, or pneumonia at acute care hospitals, incorporating present on admission coding and ungrouped historical and index admission International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes was associated with greater discrimination in patient-level and hospital-level 30-day mortality risk models. Meaning Changes incurring no additional cost could enhance the risk adjustment for mortality and increase discrimination of hospital-level performance., Importance Risk adjustment models using claims-based data are central in evaluating health care performance. Although US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) models apply well-vetted statistical approaches, recent changes in the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) coding system and advances in computational capabilities may provide an opportunity for enhancement. Objective To examine whether changes using already available data would enhance risk models and yield greater discrimination in hospital-level performance measures. Design, Setting, and Participants This comparative effectiveness study used ICD-9-CM codes from all Medicare fee-for-service beneficiary claims for hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), or pneumonia among patients 65 years and older from July 1, 2013, through September 30, 2015. Changes to current CMS mortality risk models were applied incrementally to patient-level models, and the best model was tested on hospital performance measures to model 30-day mortality. Analyses were conducted from April 19, 2018, to September 19, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcome was all-cause death within 30 days of hospitalization for AMI, HF, or pneumonia, examined using 3 changes to current CMS mortality risk models: (1) incorporating present on admission coding to better exclude potential complications of care, (2) separating index admission diagnoses from those of the 12-month history, and (3) using ungrouped ICD-9-CM codes. Results There were 361 175 hospital admissions (mean [SD] age, 78.6 [8.4] years; 189 225 [52.4%] men) for AMI, 716 790 hospital admissions (mean [SD] age, 81.1 [8.4] years; 326 825 [45.6%] men) for HF, and 988 225 hospital admissions (mean [SD] age, 80.7 [8.6] years; 460 761 [46.6%] men) for pneumonia during the study; mean 30-day mortality rates were 13.8% for AMI, 12.1% for HF, and 16.1% for pneumonia. Each change to the models was associated with incremental gains in C statistics. The best model, incorporating all changes, was associated with significantly improved patient-level C statistics, from 0.720 to 0.826 for AMI, 0.685 to 0.776 for HF, and 0.715 to 0.804 for pneumonia. Compared with current CMS models, the best model produced wider predicted probabilities with better calibration and Brier scores. Hospital risk-standardized mortality rates had wider distributions, with more hospitals identified as good or bad performance outliers. Conclusions and Relevance Incorporating present on admission coding and using ungrouped index and historical ICD-9-CM codes were associated with improved patient-level and hospital-level risk models for mortality compared with the current CMS models for all 3 conditions.

Importance Payers and policy makers have advocated for transitioning toward value-based payment models. However, little is known about what is the extent of hospital variation in the value of care and whether there are any hospital characteristics associated with high-value care. Objectives To investigate the association between hospital-level 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates (RSMRs) and 30-day risk-standardized payments (RSPs) for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), and pneumonia (PNA); to characterize patterns of value in care; and to identify hospital characteristics associated with high-value care (defined by having lower than median RSMRs and RSPs). Design, Setting, and Participants This national cross-sectional study applied weighted linear correlation to investigate the association between hospital RSMRs and RSPs for AMI, HF, and PNA between July 1, 2011, and June 30, 2014, among all hospitals; examined correlations in subgroups of hospitals based on key characteristics; and assessed the proportion and characteristics of hospitals delivering high-value care. The data analysis was completed in October 2017. The setting was acute care hospitals. Participants were Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries discharged with AMI, HF, or PNA. Main Outcomes and Measures Hospital-level 30-day RSMRs and RSPs for AMI, HF, and PNA. Results The AMI sample consisted of 4339 hospitals with 487 141 hospitalizations for mortality and 462 905 hospitalizations for payment. The HF sample included 4641 hospitals with 960 960 hospitalizations for mortality and 903 721 hospitalizations for payment. The PNA sample contained 4685 hospitals with 952 022 hospitalizations for mortality and 901 764 hospitalizations for payment. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) RSMRs and RSPs, respectively, was 14.3% (IQR, 13.8%-14.8%) and $21 620 (IQR, $20 966-$22 567) for AMI, 11.7% (IQR, 11.0%-12.5%) and $15 139 (IQR, $14 310-$16 118) for HF, and 11.5% (IQR, 10.6%-12.6%) and $14 220 (IQR, $13 342-$15 097) for PNA. There were statistically significant but weak inverse correlations between the RSMRs and RSPs of −0.08 (95% CI, −0.11 to −0.05) for AMI, −0.21 (95% CI, −0.24 to −0.18) for HF, and −0.07 (95% CI, −0.09 to −0.04) for PNA. The largest shared variance between the RSMRs and RSPs was only 4.4% (for HF). The correlations between the RSMRs and RSPs did not differ significantly across teaching status, safety-net status, urban/rural status, or the proportion of patients with low socioeconomic status. Approximately 1 in 4 hospitals (20.9% for AMI, 23.0% for HF, and 23.9% for PNA) had both lower than median RSMRs and RSPs. Conclusions and Relevance These findings suggest that there is significant potential for improvement in the value of AMI, HF, and PNA care and also suggest that high-value care for these conditions is attainable across most hospital types.

Key Points Question What is the source of known disparities in outcomes after hospitalization according to patients’ race and socioeconomic status? Findings This cohort study found differences in outcomes by race and neighborhood income, but hospital performance within and between hospitals by patient race and neighborhood income was generally consistent. Meaning There was no evidence that specific hospitals that treated patients from a range of racial and socioeconomic backgrounds contributed to observed disparities after hospitalization, suggesting a systemic effect may be contributory., This cohort study uses Medicare claims data to compare performance within and between US hospitals concerning the association of race and neighborhood income with patient outcomes after hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, and pneumonia., Importance Although studies have described differences in hospital outcomes by patient race and socioeconomic status, it is not clear whether such disparities are driven by hospitals themselves or by broader systemic effects. Objective To determine patterns of racial and socioeconomic disparities in outcomes within and between hospitals for patients with acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective cohort study initiated before February 2013, with additional analyses conducted during the peer-review process. Hospitals in the United States treating at least 25 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older in each race (ie, black and white) and neighborhood income level (ie, higher income and lower income) for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia between 2009 and 2011 were included. Main Outcomes and Measures For within-hospital analyses, risk-standardized mortality rates and risk-standardized readmission rates for race and neighborhood income subgroups were calculated at each hospital. The corresponding ratios using intraclass correlation coefficients were then compared. For between-hospital analyses, risk-standardized rates were assessed according to hospitals’ proportion of patients in each subgroup. These analyses were performed for each of the 12 analysis cohorts reflecting the unique combinations of outcomes (mortality and readmission), demographics (race and neighborhood income), and conditions (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia). Results Between 74% (3545 of 4810) and 91% (4136 of 4554) of US hospitals lacked sufficient racial and socioeconomic diversity to be included in this analysis, with the number of hospitals eligible for analysis varying among cohorts. The 12 analysis cohorts ranged in size from 418 to 1265 hospitals and from 144 417 to 703 324 patients. Within included hospitals, risk-standardized mortality rates tended to be lower among black patients (mean [SD] difference between risk-standardized mortality rates in black patients compared with white patients for acute myocardial infarction, −0.57 [1.1] [P = .47]; for heart failure, −4.7 [1.3] [P

Importance The Affordable Care Act has led to US national reductions in hospital 30-day readmission rates for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and pneumonia. Whether readmission reductions have had the unintended consequence of increasing mortality after hospitalization is unknown. Objective To examine the correlation of paired trends in hospital 30-day readmission rates and hospital 30-day mortality rates after discharge. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older hospitalized with HF, AMI, or pneumonia from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2014. Exposure Thirty-day risk-adjusted readmission rate (RARR). Main Outcomes and Measures Thirty-day RARRs and 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rates (RAMRs) after discharge were calculated for each condition in each month at each hospital in 2008 through 2014. Monthly trends in each hospital’s 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were examined for each condition. The weighted Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated for hospitals’ paired monthly trends in 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge for each condition. Results In 2008 through 2014, 2 962 554 hospitalizations for HF, 1 229 939 for AMI, and 2 544 530 for pneumonia were identified at 5016, 4772, and 5057 hospitals, respectively. In January 2008, mean hospital 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were 24.6% and 8.4% for HF, 19.3% and 7.6% for AMI, and 18.3% and 8.5% for pneumonia. Hospital 30-day RARRs declined in the aggregate across hospitals from 2008 through 2014; monthly changes in RARRs were −0.053% (95% CI, −0.055% to −0.051%) for HF, −0.044% (95% CI, −0.047% to −0.041%) for AMI, and −0.033% (95% CI, −0.035% to −0.031%) for pneumonia. In contrast, monthly aggregate changes across hospitals in hospital 30-day RAMRs after discharge varied by condition: HF, 0.008% (95% CI, 0.007% to 0.010%); AMI, −0.003% (95% CI, −0.005% to −0.001%); and pneumonia, 0.001% (95% CI, −0.001% to 0.003%). However, correlation coefficients in hospitals’ paired monthly changes in 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were weakly positive: HF, 0.066 (95% CI, 0.036 to 0.096); AMI, 0.067 (95% CI, 0.027 to 0.106); and pneumonia, 0.108 (95% CI, 0.079 to 0.137). Findings were similar in secondary analyses, including with alternate definitions of hospital mortality. Conclusions and Relevance Among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or pneumonia, reductions in hospital 30-day readmission rates were weakly but significantly correlated with reductions in hospital 30-day mortality rates after discharge. These findings do not support increasing postdischarge mortality related to reducing hospital readmissions.

General surgery residency programs are facing multiple pressures, including attracting and retaining residents. Despite the importance of resident perspectives in designing effective responses to these pressures, understanding of residents' views is limited.To profile US general surgery residents; characterize resident attitudes, experiences, and expectations regarding training; and examine differences by sex and training year.Cross-sectional study of all general surgery residents completing a survey in January 2008 following administration of the American Board of Surgery In-Training Examination.Resident satisfaction; perceived supports, strains and concern; career motivations; and professional expectations.Of 5345 categorical general surgery residents, 4402 (82.4%) responded, representing 248 of 249 surgical residency programs. Most respondents expressed satisfaction with training (3686 [85.2%]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 84.1%-86.3%) and supportive peer relationships (3433 [84.2%]; 95% CI, 83.1%-85.3%). However, residents also reported unmet needs and apprehensions about training and careers. Worry that they will not feel confident performing procedures independently was reported by 1185 (27.5%; 95% CI, 26.2%-28.8%), while 2681 (63.8%; 95% CI, 62.4%-65.3%) reported that they must complete specialty training to be competitive. Perceptions of program support differ, with men more likely than women to report that their program provides support (2188 [74.5%] vs 895 [65.6%]; P.001), and that they can turn to faculty when having difficulties (2193 [74.5%] vs 901 [66.4%]; P.001). Reports of having considered leaving training in the prior year differed significantly across years (P.001), highest in postgraduate year 2 (19.2%) and lowest in postgraduate year 5 (7.2%).General surgery residents' attitudes, experiences, and expectations regarding training reflect both high levels of satisfaction and sources of strain. These factors vary by sex and training year.