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Importance: Approximately 55 million people in the US and approximately 1.1 billion people worldwide are postmenopausal women. To inform clinical practice about the health effects of menopausal hormone therapy, calcium plus vitamin D supplementation, and a low-fat dietary pattern, the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) enrolled 161 808 postmenopausal US women (N = 68 132 in the clinical trials) aged 50 to 79 years at baseline from 1993 to 1998, and followed them up for up to 20 years., Observations: The WHI clinical trial results do not support hormone therapy with oral conjugated equine estrogens plus medroxyprogesterone acetate for postmenopausal women or conjugated equine estrogens alone for those with prior hysterectomy to prevent cardiovascular disease, dementia, or other chronic diseases. However, hormone therapy is effective for treating moderate to severe vasomotor and other menopausal symptoms. These benefits of hormone therapy in early menopause, combined with lower rates of adverse effects of hormone therapy in early compared with later menopause, support initiation of hormone therapy before age 60 years for women without contraindications to hormone therapy who have bothersome menopausal symptoms. The WHI results do not support routinely recommending calcium plus vitamin D supplementation for fracture prevention in all postmenopausal women. However, calcium and vitamin D are appropriate for women who do not meet national guidelines for recommended intakes of these nutrients through diet. A low-fat dietary pattern with increased fruit, vegetable, and grain consumption did not prevent the primary outcomes of breast or colorectal cancer but was associated with lower rates of the secondary outcome of breast cancer mortality during long-term follow-up., Conclusions and Relevance: For postmenopausal women, the WHI randomized clinical trials do not support menopausal hormone therapy to prevent cardiovascular disease or other chronic diseases. Menopausal hormone therapy is appropriate to treat bothersome vasomotor symptoms among women in early menopause, without contraindications, who are interested in taking hormone therapy. The WHI evidence does not support routine supplementation with calcium plus vitamin D for menopausal women to prevent fractures or a low-fat diet with increased fruits, vegetables, and grains to prevent breast or colorectal cancer. A potential role of a low-fat dietary pattern in reducing breast cancer mortality, a secondary outcome, warrants further study.

Importance: The burden of fractures among postmenopausal women is high. Although nontraumatic fractures are strong risk factors for future fracture, current clinical guidelines do not address traumatic fractures., Objective: To determine how future fracture risk varies according to whether an initial fracture is traumatic or nontraumatic., Design, Setting, and Participants: We conducted a prospective observational study using data from the Women's Health Initiative Study (WHI) (enrollment, September 1994-December 1998; data analysis, September 2020 to March 2021), which enrolled postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years at baseline at 40 US clinical centers. The WHI Clinical Trials and WHI Bone Density Substudy, conducted at 3 of the clinical centers, asked participants to report the mechanism of incident fractures. Of 75 335 participants, information regarding incident fracture and covariates was available for 66 874 participants (88.8%), who comprised the analytic sample of this study. Mean (SD) follow-up was 8.1 (1.6) years., Interventions: None., Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident clinical fractures were self-reported at least annually and confirmed using medical records. Participants reported the mechanism of incident fracture as traumatic or nontraumatic., Results: Among the 66 874 participants in the analytic sample (mean [SD] age, 63.1 [7.0] years and 65.3 [7.2] years among women without and with clinical fracture, respectively), 7142 participants (10.7%) experienced incident fracture during the study follow-up period. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of subsequent fracture after initial fracture was 1.49 (95% CI, 1.38-1.61). Among women whose initial fracture was traumatic, the association between initial fracture and subsequent fracture was significantly increased (aHR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06-1.48). Among women whose initial fracture was nontraumatic, the association between initial fracture and subsequent fracture was also increased (aHR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.37-1.68). Confidence intervals for associations between initial fracture and subsequent fracture were overlapping for traumatic and nontraumatic initial fracture strata., Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, among postmenopausal women older than 50 years, fracture was associated with a greater risk of subsequent fracture regardless of whether the fracture was traumatic or nontraumatic. These findings suggest that clinical osteoporosis assessment should include high-trauma as well as low-trauma fractures.

Importance: Repeated bone mineral density (BMD) testing to screen for osteoporosis requires resources. For patient counseling and optimal resource use, it is important for clinicians to know whether repeated BMD measurement (compared with baseline BMD measurement alone) improves the ability to discriminate between postmenopausal women who will and will not experience a fracture., Objective: To assess whether a second BMD measurement approximately 3 years after the initial assessment is associated with improved ability to estimate fracture risk beyond the baseline BMD measurement alone., Design, Setting, and Participants: The Women's Health Initiative is a prospective observational study. Participants in the present cohort study included 7419 women with a mean (SD) follow-up of 12.1 (3.4) years between 1993 and 2010 at 3 US clinical centers. Data analysis was conducted between May 2019 and December 2019., Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident major osteoporotic fracture (ie, hip, clinical spine, forearm, or shoulder fracture), hip fracture, baseline BMD, and absolute change in BMD were assessed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC) for baseline BMD, absolute change in BMD, and the combination of baseline BMD and change in BMD were calculated to assess incident fracture risk discrimination during follow-up., Results: Of 7419 participants, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 66.1 (7.2) years, the mean (SD) body mass index was 28.7 (6.0), and 1720 (23%) were nonwhite individuals. During the study follow-up (mean [SD] 9.0 [3.5] years after the second BMD measurement), 139 women (1.9%) experienced hip fractures, and 732 women (9.9%) experienced major osteoporotic fracture. In discriminating between women who experience hip fractures and those who do not, AU-ROC values were 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.75) for baseline total hip BMD, 0.61 (95% CI, 0.56-0.65) for change in total hip BMD, and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.69-0.77) for the combination of baseline total hip BMD and change in total hip BMD. Femoral neck and lumbar spine BMD values had similar discrimination for hip fracture. For discrimination of major osteoporotic fracture, AU-ROC values were 0.61 (95% CI, 0.59-0.63) for baseline total hip BMD, 0.53 (95% CI, 0.51-0.55) for change in total hip BMD, and 0.61 (95% CI, 0.59-0.63) for the combination of baseline total hip BMD and change in total hip BMD. Femoral neck and lumbar spine BMD values had similar ability to discriminate between women who experienced major osteoporotic fracture and those who did not. Associations between change in bone density and fracture risk did not differ by subgroup, including diabetes, age, race/ethnicity, body mass index, or baseline BMD T score., Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that a second BMD assessment approximately 3 years after the initial measurement was not associated with improved discrimination between women who did and did not experience subsequent hip fracture or major osteoporotic fracture beyond the baseline BMD value alone and should not routinely be performed.

Importance: Physical activity is inversely associated with hip fracture risk in older women. However, the association of physical activity with fracture at other sites and the role of sedentary behavior remain unclear., Objective: To assess the associations of physical activity and sedentary behavior with fracture incidence among postmenopausal women., Design, Setting, and Participants: The Women's Health Initiative prospective cohort study enrolled 77 206 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years between October 1993 and December 1998 at 40 US clinical centers. Participants were observed for outcomes through September 2015, with data analysis conducted from June 2017 to August 2019., Exposures: Self-reported physical activity and sedentary time., Main Outcomes and Measures: Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for total and site-specific fracture incidence., Results: During a mean (SD) follow-up period of 14.0 (5.2) years among 77 206 women (mean [SD] age, 63.4 [7.3] years; 66 072 [85.6%] white), 25 516 (33.1%) reported a first incident fracture. Total physical activity was inversely associated with the multivariable-adjusted risk of hip fracture (>17.7 metabolic equivalent [MET] h/wk vs none: HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72-0.95; P for trend < .001). Inverse associations with hip fracture were also observed for walking (>7.5 MET h/wk vs none: HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.78-0.98; P for trend = .01), mild activity (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.73-0.93; P for trend = .003), moderate to vigorous activity (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.81-0.96; P for trend = .002), and yard work (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.99; P for trend = .04). Total activity was positively associated with knee fracture (>17.7 MET h/wk vs none: HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.05-1.50; P for trend = .08). Mild activity was associated with lower risks of clinical vertebral fracture (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.78-0.96; P for trend = .006) and total fractures (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94; P for trend < .001). Moderate to vigorous activity was positively associated with wrist or forearm fracture (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.03-1.15; P for trend = .004). After controlling for covariates and total physical activity, sedentary time was positively associated with total fracture risk (>9.5 h/d vs <6.5 h/d: HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.07; P for trend = .01). When analyzed jointly, higher total activity mitigated some of the total fracture risk associated with sedentary behavior. Analysis of time-varying exposures resulted in somewhat stronger associations for total physical activity, whereas those for sedentary time were materially unchanged., Conclusions and Relevance: In older ambulatory women, higher total physical activity was associated with lower total and hip fracture risk but higher knee fracture risk. Mild activity and walking were associated with lower hip fracture risk, a finding with important public health implications because these activities are common in older adults. The positive association between sedentary time and total fracture risk requires further investigation.

Importance: Health outcomes from the Women's Health Initiative Estrogen Plus Progestin and Estrogen-Alone Trials have been reported, but previous publications have generally not focused on all-cause and cause-specific mortality., Objective: To examine total and cause-specific cumulative mortality, including during the intervention and extended postintervention follow-up, of the 2 Women's Health Initiative hormone therapy trials., Design, Setting, and Participants: Observational follow-up of US multiethnic postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years enrolled in 2 randomized clinical trials between 1993 and 1998 and followed up through December 31, 2014., Interventions: Conjugated equine estrogens (CEE, 0.625 mg/d) plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA, 2.5 mg/d) (n = 8506) vs placebo (n = 8102) for 5.6 years (median) or CEE alone (n = 5310) vs placebo (n = 5429) for 7.2 years (median)., Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality (primary outcome) and cause-specific mortality (cardiovascular disease mortality, cancer mortality, and other major causes of mortality) in the 2 trials pooled and in each trial individually, with prespecified analyses by 10-year age group based on age at time of randomization., Results: Among 27 347 women who were randomized (baseline mean [SD] age, 63.4 [7.2] years; 80.6% white), mortality follow-up was available for more than 98%. During the cumulative 18-year follow-up, 7489 deaths occurred (1088 deaths during the intervention phase and 6401 deaths during postintervention follow-up). All-cause mortality was 27.1% in the hormone therapy group vs 27.6% in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.99 [95% CI, 0.94-1.03]) in the overall pooled cohort; with CEE plus MPA, the HR was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.96-1.08); and with CEE alone, the HR was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.88-1.01). In the pooled cohort for cardiovascular mortality, the HR was 1.00 (95% CI, 0.92-1.08 [8.9 % with hormone therapy vs 9.0% with placebo]); for total cancer mortality, the HR was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.95-1.12 [8.2 % with hormone therapy vs 8.0% with placebo]); and for other causes, the HR was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.88-1.02 [10.0% with hormone therapy vs 10.7% with placebo]), and results did not differ significantly between trials. When examined by 10-year age groups comparing younger women (aged 50-59 years) to older women (aged 70-79 years) in the pooled cohort, the ratio of nominal HRs for all-cause mortality was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.43-0.87) during the intervention phase and the ratio was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.76-1.00) during cumulative 18-year follow-up, without significant heterogeneity between trials., Conclusions and Relevance: Among postmenopausal women, hormone therapy with CEE plus MPA for a median of 5.6 years or with CEE alone for a median of 7.2 years was not associated with risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, or cancer mortality during a cumulative follow-up of 18 years., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Importance: The use of menopausal hormone therapy (HT) continues in clinical practice, but reports are conflicting concerning the longer-term breast cancer effects of relatively short-term use., Objective: To report the longer-term influence of menopausal HT on breast cancer incidence in the 2 Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized clinical trials., Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 27,347 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years were enrolled at 40 US centers from 1993 to 1998 and followed up for a median of 13 years through September 2010., Interventions: A total of 16,608 women with a uterus were randomized to conjugated equine estrogens (0.625 mg/d [estrogen]) plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (2.5 mg/d [progestin]) (E + P) or placebo with a median intervention duration of 5.6 years, and 10,739 women with prior hysterectomy were randomized to conjugated equine estrogens alone (0.625 mg/d) or placebo with a median intervention duration of 7.2 years., Main Outcomes and Measures: Time-specific invasive breast cancer incidence rates and exploratory analyses of breast cancer characteristics by intervention and postintervention phases in the 2 HT trials., Results: In the E + P trial, hazard ratios (HRs) for the influence of combined HT on breast cancer were lower than 1 for 2 years (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.47-1.08) and steadily increased throughout intervention, becoming significantly increased for the entire intervention phase (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.01-1.53). In the early postintervention phase (within 2.75 years from intervention), there was a sharp decrease in breast cancer incidence in the combined HT group, though the HR remained higher than 1 (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.90-1.70). During the late postintervention phase (requiring patient re-consent), the HR for breast cancer risk remained higher than 1 through 5.5 years (median) of additional follow-up (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.06-1.77). In the estrogen alone trial, the HR for invasive breast cancer risk was lower than 1 throughout the intervention phase (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.61-1.02) and remained lower than 1 in the early postintervention phase (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.34-0.89), but risk reduction was not observed during the late postintervention follow-up (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.73-1.87). Characteristics of breast cancers diagnosed during early and late postintervention phases differed in both trials., Conclusions and Relevance: In the E + P trial, the higher breast cancer risk seen during intervention was followed by a substantial drop in risk in the early postintervention phase, but a higher breast cancer risk remained during the late postintervention follow-up. In the estrogen alone trial, the lower breast cancer risk seen during intervention was sustained in the early postintervention phase but was not evident during the late postintervention follow-up.

Importance: Menopausal hormone therapy continues in clinical use but questions remain regarding its risks and benefits for chronic disease prevention., Objective: To report a comprehensive, integrated overview of findings from the 2 Women's Health Initiative (WHI) hormone therapy trials with extended postintervention follow-up., Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 27,347 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years were enrolled at 40 US centers., Interventions: Women with an intact uterus received conjugated equine estrogens (CEE; 0.625 mg/d) plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA; 2.5 mg/d) (n = 8506) or placebo (n = 8102). Women with prior hysterectomy received CEE alone (0.625 mg/d) (n = 5310) or placebo (n = 5429). The intervention lasted a median of 5.6 years in CEE plus MPA trial and 7.2 years in CEE alone trial with 13 years of cumulative follow-up until September 30, 2010., Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary efficacy and safety outcomes were coronary heart disease (CHD) and invasive breast cancer, respectively. A global index also included stroke, pulmonary embolism, colorectal cancer, endometrial cancer, hip fracture, and death., Results: During the CEE plus MPA intervention phase, the numbers of CHD cases were 196 for CEE plus MPA vs 159 for placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 1.18; 95% CI, 0.95-1.45) and 206 vs 155, respectively, for invasive breast cancer (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.01-1.53). Other risks included increased stroke, pulmonary embolism, dementia (in women aged ≥65 years), gallbladder disease, and urinary incontinence; benefits included decreased hip fractures, diabetes, and vasomotor symptoms. Most risks and benefits dissipated postintervention, although some elevation in breast cancer risk persisted during cumulative follow-up (434 cases for CEE plus MPA vs 323 for placebo; HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.11-1.48]). The risks and benefits were more balanced during the CEE alone intervention with 204 CHD cases for CEE alone vs 222 cases for placebo (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.78-1.14) and 104 vs 135, respectively, for invasive breast cancer (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.61-1.02); cumulatively, there were 168 vs 216, respectively, cases of breast cancer diagnosed (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.65-0.97). Results for other outcomes were similar to CEE plus MPA. Neither regimen affected all-cause mortality. For CEE alone, younger women (aged 50-59 years) had more favorable results for all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and the global index (nominal P < .05 for trend by age). Absolute risks of adverse events (measured by the global index) per 10,000 women annually taking CEE plus MPA ranged from 12 excess cases for ages of 50-59 years to 38 for ages of 70-79 years; for women taking CEE alone, from 19 fewer cases for ages of 50-59 years to 51 excess cases for ages of 70-79 years. Quality-of-life outcomes had mixed results in both trials., Conclusions and Relevance: Menopausal hormone therapy has a complex pattern of risks and benefits. Findings from the intervention and extended postintervention follow-up of the 2 WHI hormone therapy trials do not support use of this therapy for chronic disease prevention, although it is appropriate for symptom management in some women., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Importance: Dental caries is the demineralization of tooth structures by lactic acid from fermentation of carbohydrates by commensal gram-positive bacteria. Cariogenic bacteria have been shown to elicit a potent Th1 cytokine polarization and a cell-mediated immune response., Objective: To test the association between dental caries and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC)., Design, Setting, and Participants: Case-control study in a comprehensive cancer center including all patients with newly diagnosed primary HNSCC between 1999 and 2007 as cases and all patients without a cancer diagnosis as controls. Those with a history of cancer, dysplasia, or immunodeficiency or who were younger than 21 years were excluded., Exposures: Dental caries, fillings, crowns, and endodontic treatments, measured by the number of affected teeth; missing teeth. We also computed an index variable: decayed, missing, and filled teeth (DMFT)., Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident HNSCC., Results: We included 620 participants (399 cases and 221 controls). Cases had a significantly lower mean (SD) number of teeth with caries (1.58 [2.52] vs 2.04 [2.15]; P = .03), crowns (1.27 [2.65] vs 2.10 [3.57]; P = .01), endodontic treatments (0.56 [1.24] vs 1.01 [2.04]; P = .01), and fillings (5.39 [4.31] vs 6.17 [4.51]; P = .04) but more missing teeth (13.71 [10.27] vs 8.50 [8.32]; P < .001) than controls. There was no significant difference in mean DMFT. After adjustment for age at diagnosis, sex, marital status, smoking status, and alcohol use, those in the upper tertiles of caries (odds ratio [OR], 0.32 [95% CI, 0.19-0.55]; P for trend = .001), crowns (OR, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.26-0.84]; P for trend = .03), and endodontic treatments (OR, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.30-1.01]; P for trend = .15) were less likely to have HNSCC than those in the lower tertiles. Missing teeth was no longer associated with HNSCC after adjustment for confounding., Conclusions and Relevance: There is an inverse association between HNSCC and dental caries. This study provides insights for future studies to assess potential beneficial effects of lactic acid bacteria and the associated immune response on HNSCC.

Importance: Postmenopausal hormone therapy with conjugated equine estrogens (CEEs) may adversely affect older women’s cognitive function. It is not known whether this extends to younger women., Objective: To test whether prescribing CEE-based hormone therapy to postmenopausal women aged 50 to 55 years has longer-term effects on cognitive function., Design: Trained, masked staff assessed participants with an annual telephone-administered cognitive battery that included measures of global and domain-specific cognitive functions. Cognitive testing was conducted an average of 7.2 years after the trials ended, when women had a mean age of 67.2 years, and repeated 1 year later. Enrollment occurred from 1996 through 1999., Setting: Forty academic research centers., Participants: The study population comprised 1326 postmenopausal women, who had begun treatment in 2 randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials of hormone therapy when aged 50 to 55 years., Intervention: The clinical trials in which the women had participated had compared 0.625 mg CEE with or without 2.5 mg medroxyprogesterone acetate over a mean of 7.0 years., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was global cognitive function. Secondary outcomes were verbal memory, attention, executive function, verbal fluency, and working memory., Results: Global cognitive function scores from women who had been assigned to CEE-based therapies were similar to those from women assigned to placebo: mean (95% CI) intervention effect of 0.02 (−0.08 to 0.12) standard deviation units (P = .66). Similarly, no overall differences were found for any individual cognitive domain (all P > .15). Prespecified subgroup analyses found some evidence that CEE-based therapies may have adversely affected verbal fluency among women who had prior hysterectomy or prior use of hormone therapy: mean treatment effects of −0.17 (−0.33 to −0.02) and −0.25 (−0.42 to −0.08), respectively; however, this may be a chance finding., Conclusions and Relevance: CEE-based therapies produced no overall sustained benefit or risk to cognitive function when administered to postmenopausal women aged 50 to 55 years. We are not able to address whether initiating hormone therapy during menopause and maintaining therapy until any symptoms are passed affects cognitive function, either in the short or longer term., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01124773.

Context: The Women's Health Initiative Estrogen-Alone Trial was stopped early after a mean of 7.1 years of follow-up because of an increased risk of stroke and little likelihood of altering the balance of risk to benefit by the planned trial termination date. Postintervention health outcomes have not been reported., Objective: To examine health outcomes associated with randomization to treatment with conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) among women with prior hysterectomy after a mean of 10.7 years of follow-up through August 2009., Design, Setting, and Participants: The intervention phase was a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial of 0.625 mg/d of CEE compared with placebo in 10,739 US postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years with prior hysterectomy. Follow-up continued after the planned trial completion date among 7645 surviving participants (78%) who provided written consent., Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcomes were coronary heart disease (CHD) and invasive breast cancer. A global index of risks and benefits included these primary outcomes plus stroke, pulmonary embolism, colorectal cancer, hip fracture, and death., Results: The postintervention risk (annualized rate) for CHD among women assigned to CEE was 0.64% compared with 0.67% in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-1.25), 0.26% vs 0.34%, respectively, for breast cancer (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.51-1.09), and 1.47% vs 1.48%, respectively, for total mortality (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.84-1.18). The risk of stroke was no longer elevated during the postintervention follow-up period and was 0.36% among women receiving CEE compared with 0.41% in the placebo group (HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.64-1.24), the risk of deep vein thrombosis was lower at 0.17% vs 0.27%, respectively (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.41-0.98), and the risk of hip fracture did not differ significantly and was 0.36% vs 0.28%, respectively (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.88-1.82). Over the entire follow-up, lower breast cancer incidence in the CEE group persisted and was 0.27% compared with 0.35% in the placebo group (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.62-0.95). Health outcomes were more favorable for younger compared with older women for CHD (P = .05 for interaction), total myocardial infarction (P = .007 for interaction), colorectal cancer (P = .04 for interaction), total mortality (P = .04 for interaction), and global index of chronic diseases (P = .009 for interaction)., Conclusions: Among postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy followed up for 10.7 years, CEE use for a median of 5.9 years was not associated with an increased or decreased risk of CHD, deep vein thrombosis, stroke, hip fracture, colorectal cancer, or total mortality. A decreased risk of breast cancer persisted., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Context: In the Women's Health Initiative randomized, placebo-controlled trial of estrogen plus progestin, after a mean intervention time of 5.6 (SD, 1.3) years (range, 3.7-8.6 years) and a mean follow-up of 7.9 (SD, 1.4) years, breast cancer incidence was increased among women who received combined hormone therapy. Breast cancer mortality among participants in the trial has not been previously reported., Objective: To determine the effects of therapy with estrogen plus progestin on cumulative breast cancer incidence and mortality after a total mean follow-up of 11.0 (SD, 2.7) years, through August 14, 2009., Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 16,608 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years with no prior hysterectomy from 40 US clinical centers were randomly assigned to receive combined conjugated equine estrogens, 0.625 mg/d, plus medroxyprogesterone acetate, 2.5 mg/d, or placebo pill. After the original trial completion date (March 31, 2005), reconsent was required for continued follow-up for breast cancer incidence and was obtained from 12,788 (83%) of the surviving participants., Main Outcome Measures: Invasive breast cancer incidence and breast cancer mortality., Results: In intention-to-treat analyses including all randomized participants and censoring those not consenting to additional follow-up on March 31, 2005, estrogen plus progestin was associated with more invasive breast cancers compared with placebo (385 cases [0.42% per year] vs 293 cases [0.34% per year]; hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.46; P = .004). Breast cancers in the estrogen-plus-progestin group were similar in histology and grade to breast cancers in the placebo group but were more likely to be node-positive (81 [23.7%] vs 43 [16.2%], respectively; HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.23-2.58; P = .03). There were more deaths directly attributed to breast cancer (25 deaths [0.03% per year] vs 12 deaths [0.01% per year]; HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.00-4.04; P = .049) as well as more deaths from all causes occurring after a breast cancer diagnosis (51 deaths [0.05% per year] vs 31 deaths [0.03% per year]; HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.01-2.48; P = .045) among women who received estrogen plus progestin compared with women in the placebo group., Conclusions: Estrogen plus progestin was associated with greater breast cancer incidence, and the cancers are more commonly node-positive. Breast cancer mortality also appears to be increased with combined use of estrogen plus progestin., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Context: The 329,000 hip fractures that annually occur in the United States are associated with high morbidity, mortality, and cost. Identification of those at high risk is a step toward prevention., Objective: To develop an algorithm to predict the 5-year risk of hip fracture in postmenopausal women., Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 93,676 women who participated in the observational component of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), a multiethnic longitudinal study, were used to develop a predictive algorithm based on commonly available clinical features. Selected factors that predicted hip fracture were then validated by 68,132 women who participated in the clinical trial. The model was tested in a subset of 10,750 women who had undergone dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans for bone mass density assessment., Main Outcome Measure: The prediction of centrally adjudicated hip fracture, measured by the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves., Results: During a mean (SD) follow-up of 7.6 (1.7) years, 1132 hip fractures were identified among women participating in the observational study (annualized rate, 0.16%), whereas during a mean follow-up of 8.0 (1.7) years, 791 hip fractures occurred among women participating in the clinical trial (annualized rate, 0.14%). Eleven factors predicted hip fracture within 5 years: age, self-reported health, weight, height, race/ethnicity, self-reported physical activity, history of fracture after age 54 years, parental hip fracture, current smoking, current corticosteroid use, and treated diabetes. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the algorithm had an area under the curve of 80% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77%-0.82%) when tested in the cohort of different women who were in the clinical trial. A simplified point score was developed for the probability of hip fracture. Receiver operating characteristic curves comparing DXA-scan prediction based on a 10% subset of the cohort and the algorithm among those who participated the clinical trial were similar, with an area under the curve of 79% (95% CI, 73%-85%) vs 71% (95% CI, 66%-76%)., Conclusion: This algorithm, based on 11 clinical factors, may be useful to predict the 5-year risk of hip fracture among postmenopausal women of various ethnic backgrounds. Further studies are needed to assess the clinical implication of the algorithm in general and specifically to identify treatment benefits.

Objective: To assess the association between the history of chronic periodontitis and the risk of tongue cancer., Design: Case-control study using preexisting data from patients admitted between June 15, 1999, and November 17, 2005., Setting: Department of Dentistry and Maxillofacial Prosthetics at Roswell Park Cancer Institute (RPCI), Buffalo, NY., Patients: The cases comprised 51 non-Hispanic white men newly diagnosed as having primary squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue, and the controls, 54 non-Hispanic white men evaluated during the same period but with negative results for malignancy. Children (aged <21 years), edentulous or immunocompromised patients, and those with history of any cancer were excluded. History of periodontitis was assessed by alveolar bone loss measured from panoramic radiographs by 1 examiner blind to cancer status., Main Outcome Measure: Incidence of tongue cancer obtained from the RPCI Tumor Registry., Results: After adjusting for the effects of age at diagnosis, smoking status, and number of teeth, each millimeter of alveolar bone loss was associated with a 5.23-fold increase in the risk of tongue cancer (odds ratio, 5.23; 95% confidence interval, 2.64-10.35)., Conclusions: This study suggests an association between chronic periodontitis and the risk of tongue cancer in men, independent of smoking status, age, race, ethnicity, and number of teeth. This association needs to be confirmed by larger studies using quantitative assessment of lifetime tobacco exposure. If this association is confirmed, it has a potential impact on understanding the etiology of oral cancer as well as on its prevention and control.

Context: Observational studies and polyp recurrence trials are not conclusive regarding the effects of a low-fat dietary pattern on risk of colorectal cancer, necessitating a primary prevention trial., Objective: To evaluate the effects of a low-fat eating pattern on risk of colorectal cancer in postmenopausal women., Design, Setting, and Participants: The Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial, a randomized controlled trial conducted in 48,835 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years recruited between 1993 and 1998 from 40 clinical centers throughout the United States., Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned to the dietary modification intervention (n = 19,541; 40%) or the comparison group (n = 29,294; 60%). The intensive behavioral modification program aimed to motivate and support reductions in dietary fat, to increase consumption of vegetables and fruits, and to increase grain servings by using group sessions, self-monitoring techniques, and other tailored and targeted strategies. Women in the comparison group continued their usual eating pattern., Main Outcome Measure: Invasive colorectal cancer incidence., Results: A total of 480 incident cases of invasive colorectal cancer occurred during a mean follow-up of 8.1 (SD, 1.7) years. Intervention group participants significantly reduced their percentage of energy from fat by 10.7% more than did the comparison group at 1 year, and this difference between groups was mostly maintained (8.1% at year 6). Statistically significant increases in vegetable, fruit, and grain servings were also made. Despite these dietary changes, there was no evidence that the intervention reduced the risk of invasive colorectal cancer during the follow-up period. There were 201 women with invasive colorectal cancer (0.13% per year) in the intervention group and 279 (0.12% per year) in the comparison group (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.29). Secondary analyses suggested potential interactions with baseline aspirin use and combined estrogen-progestin use status (P = .01 for each). Colorectal examination rates, although not protocol defined, were comparable between the intervention and comparison groups. Similar results were seen in analyses adjusting for adherence to the intervention., Conclusion: In this study, a low-fat dietary pattern intervention did not reduce the risk of colorectal cancer in postmenopausal women during 8.1 years of follow-up., Clinical Trials Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Context: The hypothesis that a low-fat dietary pattern can reduce breast cancer risk has existed for decades but has never been tested in a controlled intervention trial., Objective: To assess the effects of undertaking a low-fat dietary pattern on breast cancer incidence., Design and Setting: A randomized, controlled, primary prevention trial conducted at 40 US clinical centers from 1993 to 2005., Participants: A total of 48,835 postmenopausal women, aged 50 to 79 years, without prior breast cancer, including 18.6% of minority race/ethnicity, were enrolled., Interventions: Women were randomly assigned to the dietary modification intervention group (40% [n = 19,541]) or the comparison group (60% [n = 29,294]). The intervention was designed to promote dietary change with the goals of reducing intake of total fat to 20% of energy and increasing consumption of vegetables and fruit to at least 5 servings daily and grains to at least 6 servings daily. Comparison group participants were not asked to make dietary changes., Main Outcome Measure: Invasive breast cancer incidence., Results: Dietary fat intake was significantly lower in the dietary modification intervention group compared with the comparison group. The difference between groups in change from baseline for percentage of energy from fat varied from 10.7% at year 1 to 8.1% at year 6. Vegetable and fruit consumption was higher in the intervention group by at least 1 serving per day and a smaller, more transient difference was found for grain consumption. The number of women who developed invasive breast cancer (annualized incidence rate) over the 8.1-year average follow-up period was 655 (0.42%) in the intervention group and 1072 (0.45%) in the comparison group (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.01 for the comparison between the 2 groups). Secondary analyses suggest a lower hazard ratio among adherent women, provide greater evidence of risk reduction among women having a high-fat diet at baseline, and suggest a dietary effect that varies by hormone receptor characteristics of the tumor., Conclusions: Among postmenopausal women, a low-fat dietary pattern did not result in a statistically significant reduction in invasive breast cancer risk over an 8.1-year average follow-up period. However, the nonsignificant trends observed suggesting reduced risk associated with a low-fat dietary pattern indicate that longer, planned, nonintervention follow-up may yield a more definitive comparison., Clinical Trials Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Context: Despite decades of use and considerable research, the role of estrogen alone in preventing chronic diseases in postmenopausal women remains uncertain., Objective: To assess the effects on major disease incidence rates of the most commonly used postmenopausal hormone therapy in the United States., Design, Setting, and Participants: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled disease prevention trial (the estrogen-alone component of the Women's Health Initiative [WHI]) conducted in 40 US clinical centers beginning in 1993. Enrolled were 10 739 postmenopausal women, aged 50-79 years, with prior hysterectomy, including 23% of minority race/ethnicity., Intervention: Women were randomly assigned to receive either 0.625 mg/d of conjugated equine estrogen (CEE) or placebo., Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome was coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence (nonfatal myocardial infarction or CHD death). Invasive breast cancer incidence was the primary safety outcome. A global index of risks and benefits, including these primary outcomes plus stroke, pulmonary embolism (PE), colorectal cancer, hip fracture, and deaths from other causes, was used for summarizing overall effects., Results: In February 2004, after reviewing data through November 30, 2003, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) decided to end the intervention phase of the trial early. Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for CEE vs placebo for the major clinical outcomes available through February 29, 2004 (average follow-up 6.8 years), were: CHD, 0.91 (0.75-1.12) with 376 cases; breast cancer, 0.77 (0.59-1.01) with 218 cases; stroke, 1.39 (1.10-1.77) with 276 cases; PE, 1.34 (0.87-2.06) with 85 cases; colorectal cancer, 1.08 (0.75-1.55) with 119 cases; and hip fracture, 0.61 (0.41-0.91) with 102 cases. Corresponding results for composite outcomes were: total cardiovascular disease, 1.12 (1.01-1.24); total cancer, 0.93 (0.81-1.07); total fractures, 0.70 (0.63-0.79); total mortality, 1.04 (0.88-1.22), and the global index, 1.01 (0.91-1.12). For the outcomes significantly affected by CEE, there was an absolute excess risk of 12 additional strokes per 10 000 person-years and an absolute risk reduction of 6 fewer hip fractures per 10 000 person-years. The estimated excess risk for all monitored events in the global index was a nonsignificant 2 events per 10 000 person-years., Conclusions: The use of CEE increases the risk of stroke, decreases the risk of hip fracture, and does not affect CHD incidence in postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy over an average of 6.8 years. A possible reduction in breast cancer risk requires further investigation. The burden of incident disease events was equivalent in the CEE and placebo groups, indicating no overall benefit. Thus, CEE should not be recommended for chronic disease prevention in postmenopausal women.

Context: In the Women's Health Initiative trial of estrogen-plus-progestin therapy, women assigned to active treatment had fewer fractures., Objective: To test the hypothesis that the relative risk reduction of estrogen plus progestin on fractures differs according to risk factors for fractures., Design, Setting, and Participants: Randomized controlled trial (September 1993-July 2002) in which 16 608 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years with an intact uterus at baseline were recruited at 40 US clinical centers and followed up for an average of 5.6 years., Intervention: Women were randomly assigned to receive conjugated equine estrogen, 0.625 mg/d, plus medroxyprogesterone acetate, 2.5 mg/d, in 1 tablet (n = 8506) or placebo (n = 8102)., Main Outcome Measures: All confirmed osteoporotic fracture events that occurred from enrollment to discontinuation of the trial (July 7, 2002); bone mineral density (BMD), measured in a subset of women (n = 1024) at baseline and years 1 and 3; and a global index, developed to summarize the balance of risks and benefits to test whether the risk-benefit profile differed across tertiles of fracture risk., Results: Seven hundred thirty-three women (8.6%) in the estrogen-plus-progestin group and 896 women (11.1%) in the placebo group experienced a fracture (hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.83). The effect did not differ in women stratified by age, body mass index, smoking status, history of falls, personal and family history of fracture, total calcium intake, past use of hormone therapy, BMD, or summary fracture risk score. Total hip BMD increased 3.7% after 3 years of treatment with estrogen plus progestin compared with 0.14% in the placebo group (P<.001). The HR for the global index was similar across tertiles of the fracture risk scale (lowest fracture risk tertile, HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.93-1.58; middle tertile, HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.04-1.46; highest tertile, HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.88-1.24) (P for interaction =.54)., Conclusions: This study demonstrates that estrogen plus progestin increases BMD and reduces the risk of fracture in healthy postmenopausal women. The decreased risk of fracture attributed to estrogen plus progestin appeared to be present in all subgroups of women examined. When considering the effects of hormone therapy on other important disease outcomes in a global model, there was no net benefit, even in women considered to be at high risk of fracture.

Context: Postmenopausal women have a greater risk than men of developing Alzheimer disease, but studies of the effects of estrogen therapy on Alzheimer disease have been inconsistent. On July 8, 2002, the study drugs, estrogen plus progestin, in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) trial were discontinued because of certain increased health risks in women receiving combined hormone therapy., Objective: To evaluate the effect of estrogen plus progestin on the incidence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment compared with placebo., Design, Setting, and Participants: The Women's Health Initiative Memory Study (WHIMS), a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial, began enrolling participants from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) estrogen plus progestin trial in May 1996. Of the 4894 eligible participants of the WHI study, 4532 (92.6%) postmenopausal women free of probable dementia, aged 65 years or older, and recruited from 39 of 40 WHI clinical centers were enrolled in the WHIMS., Intervention: Participants received either 1 daily tablet of 0.625 mg of conjugated equine estrogen plus 2.5 mg of medroxyprogesterone acetate (n = 2229), or a matching placebo (n = 2303)., Main Outcome Measures: Incidence of probable dementia (primary outcome) and mild cognitive impairment (secondary outcome) were identified through a structured clinical assessment., Results: The mean (SD) time between the date of randomization into WHI and the last Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MSE) for all WHIMS participants was 4.05 (1.19) years. Overall, 61 women were diagnosed with probable dementia, 40 (66%) in the estrogen plus progestin group compared with 21 (34%) in the placebo group. The hazard ratio (HR) for probable dementia was 2.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-3.48; 45 vs 22 per 10 000 person-years; P =.01). This increased risk would result in an additional 23 cases of dementia per 10 000 women per year. Alzheimer disease was the most common classification of dementia in both study groups. Treatment effects on mild cognitive impairment did not differ between groups (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.74-1.55; 63 vs 59 cases per 10 000 person-years; P =.72)., Conclusions: Estrogen plus progestin therapy increased the risk for probable dementia in postmenopausal women aged 65 years or older. In addition, estrogen plus progestin therapy did not prevent mild cognitive impairment in these women. These findings, coupled with previously reported WHI data, support the conclusion that the risks of estrogen plus progestin outweigh the benefits.