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Importance: In the Cardiovascular Outcomes for People Using Anticoagulation Strategies (COMPASS) trial, there was a significant reduction in the adjudicated primary outcome among patients with stable atherosclerotic vascular disease randomized to dual pathway inhibition (rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily plus aspirin 100 mg daily) vs aspirin monotherapy, but not with rivaroxaban 5 mg twice daily vs aspirin monotherapy. Whether the results are similar without adjudication is unknown., Objective: To examine the impact of dual pathway inhibition (with rivaroxaban plus aspirin) or rivaroxaban monotherapy compared with aspirin monotherapy on investigator-reported CV events and to understand the extent of concordance between investigator-reported and centrally adjudicated clinical events., Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a secondary analysis of the COMPASS trial, an international, double-blind, double-dummy, randomized clinical trial with a 3-by-2 partial factorial design that evaluated participants with stable atherosclerotic vascular disease receiving rivaroxaban plus aspirin, rivaroxaban monotherapy, or aspirin monotherapy. End points were collected by blinded site investigators and adjudicated by a blinded clinical end point committee. Data were analyzed from March 2013 through February 2017., Interventions: Participants received dual inhibition pathway (2.5 mg rivaroxaban twice daily plus 100 mg aspirin once daily), rivaroxaban monotherapy (5 mg twice daily), or aspirin monotherapy (100 mg once daily)., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of cardiovascular (CV) death, stroke, or myocardial infarction (MI). Adjudicated and investigator-reported end points were compared., Results: A total of 27 395 patients (mean [SD] age, 68.2 [7.9] years; 78.0% men) were assessed, including 9152 patients randomized to dual pathway inhibition, 9117 patients randomized to rivaroxaban monotherapy, and 9126 patients randomized to aspirin monotherapy. Adjudication reduced the number of events by 10% to 15% for most end points. Among investigator-reported end points, dual pathway inhibition significantly reduced the rate of the primary efficacy outcome compared with aspirin alone (411 patients [4.5%] vs 542 patients [5.9%]; hazard ratio [HR], 0.75 [95% CI, 0.66-0.85]; P < .001), with similar reduction in adjudicated end points, (379 patients [4.1%] vs 496 patients [5.4%]; HR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.66-0.86]; P < .001). Likewise, effects on ischemic end points were highly concordant (κ statistic = 0.94 [95% CI, 0.93-0.95] for the primary composite end point). Unlike with adjudicated outcomes, there was a significant reduction in the primary end point with rivaroxaban monotherapy vs aspirin monotherapy using investigator-reported events (477 patients [5.2%] vs 542 patients [5.9%]; HR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.78-0.99]; P = .04) compared with adjudicated events (448 patients [4.9%] vs 496 patients [5.4%]; HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.79-1.03]; P = .12)., Conclusions and Relevance: This secondary analysis of the COMPASS trial found that whether assessed by blinded site investigators or adjudicators, dual pathway inhibition significantly reduced CV events among patients with stable atherosclerotic disease compared with aspirin plus placebo. These findings suggest that using investigator-reported events in blinded clinical trials may be a more efficient alternative to adjudication., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01776424.

Importance: The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing., Objective: To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity., Design, Setting, and Participants: Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates., Exposures: A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI)., Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy., Results: In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy., Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Context: The value of assessing various emerging lipid-related markers for prediction of first cardiovascular events is debated., Objective: To determine whether adding information on apolipoprotein B and apolipoprotein A-I, lipoprotein(a), or lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 to total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) improves cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction., Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual records were available for 165,544 participants without baseline CVD in 37 prospective cohorts (calendar years of recruitment: 1968-2007) with up to 15,126 incident fatal or nonfatal CVD outcomes (10,132 CHD and 4994 stroke outcomes) during a median follow-up of 10.4 years (interquartile range, 7.6-14 years)., Main Outcome Measures: Discrimination of CVD outcomes and reclassification of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<10%), intermediate (10%-<20%), and high (≥20%) risk., Results: The addition of information on various lipid-related markers to total cholesterol, HDL-C, and other conventional risk factors yielded improvement in the model's discrimination: C-index change, 0.0006 (95% CI, 0.0002-0.0009) for the combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I; 0.0016 (95% CI, 0.0009-0.0023) for lipoprotein(a); and 0.0018 (95% CI, 0.0010-0.0026) for lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass. Net reclassification improvements were less than 1% with the addition of each of these markers to risk scores containing conventional risk factors. We estimated that for 100,000 adults aged 40 years or older, 15,436 would be initially classified at intermediate risk using conventional risk factors alone. Additional testing with a combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I would reclassify 1.1%; lipoprotein(a), 4.1%; and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass, 2.7% of people to a 20% or higher predicted CVD risk category and, therefore, in need of statin treatment under Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines., Conclusion: In a study of individuals without known CVD, the addition of information on the combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I, lipoprotein(a), or lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass to risk scores containing total cholesterol and HDL-C led to slight improvement in CVD prediction.

Context: There is evidence that job strain increases the risk of a first coronary heart disease (CHD) event. However, little is known about its association with the risk of recurrent CHD events after a first myocardial infarction (MI)., Objective: To determine whether job strain increases the risk of recurrent CHD events., Design, Setting, and Patients: Prospective cohort study of 972 men and women aged 35 to 59 years who returned to work after a first MI and were then followed up between February 10, 1996, and June 22, 2005. Patients were interviewed at baseline (on average, 6 weeks after their return to work), then after 2 and 6 years subsequently. Job strain, a combination of high psychological demands and low decision latitude, was evaluated in 4 quadrants: high strain (high demands and low latitude), active (high demands and high latitude), passive (low demands and low latitude), and low strain. A chronic job strain variable was constructed based on the first 2 interviews, and patients were divided into those exposed to high strain at both interviews and those unexposed to high strain at 1 or both interviews. The survival analyses were presented separately for 2 periods: before 2.2 years and at 2.2 years and beyond., Main Outcome Measure: The outcome was a composite of fatal CHD, nonfatal MI, and unstable angina., Results: The outcome was documented in 206 patients. In the unadjusted analysis, chronic job strain was associated with recurrent CHD in the second period after 2.2 years of follow-up (hazard ratio [HR], 2.20; 95% CI, 1.32-3.66; respective event rates for patients exposed and unexposed to chronic job strain, 6.18 and 2.81 per 100 person-years). Chronic job strain remained an independent predictor of recurrent CHD in a multivariate model adjusted for 26 potentially confounding factors (HR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.08-3.72)., Conclusion: Chronic job strain after a first MI was associated with an increased risk of recurrent CHD.

Context: Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke., Objective: To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data., Data Sources: Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators., Study Selection: All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded., Data Extraction: Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias., Data Synthesis: Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design., Conclusions: In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.

Context: Experimental and epidemiological data suggest that vitamin E supplementation may prevent cancer and cardiovascular events. Clinical trials have generally failed to confirm benefits, possibly due to their relatively short duration., Objective: To evaluate whether long-term supplementation with vitamin E decreases the risk of cancer, cancer death, and major cardiovascular events., Design, Setting, and Patients: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled international trial (the initial Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation [HOPE] trial conducted between December 21, 1993, and April 15, 1999) of patients at least 55 years old with vascular disease or diabetes mellitus was extended (HOPE-The Ongoing Outcomes [HOPE-TOO]) between April 16, 1999, and May 26, 2003. Of the initial 267 HOPE centers that had enrolled 9541 patients, 174 centers participated in the HOPE-TOO trial. Of 7030 patients enrolled at these centers, 916 were deceased at the beginning of the extension, 1382 refused participation, 3994 continued to take the study intervention, and 738 agreed to passive follow-up. Median duration of follow-up was 7.0 years., Intervention: Daily dose of natural source vitamin E (400 IU) or matching placebo., Main Outcome Measures: Primary outcomes included cancer incidence, cancer deaths, and major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death). Secondary outcomes included heart failure, unstable angina, and revascularizations., Results: Among all HOPE patients, there were no significant differences in the primary analysis: for cancer incidence, there were 552 patients (11.6%) in the vitamin E group vs 586 (12.3%) in the placebo group (relative risk [RR], 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-1.06; P = .30); for cancer deaths, 156 (3.3%) vs 178 (3.7%), respectively (RR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.71-1.09; P = .24); and for major cardiovascular events, 1022 (21.5%) vs 985 (20.6%), respectively (RR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.96-1.14; P = .34). Patients in the vitamin E group had a higher risk of heart failure (RR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.26; P = .03) and hospitalization for heart failure (RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.00-1.47; P = .045). Similarly, among patients enrolled at the centers participating in the HOPE-TOO trial, there were no differences in cancer incidence, cancer deaths, and major cardiovascular events, but higher rates of heart failure and hospitalizations for heart failure., Conclusion: In patients with vascular disease or diabetes mellitus, long-term vitamin E supplementation does not prevent cancer or major cardiovascular events and may increase the risk for heart failure.

Context: Epidemiological studies have established a relationship between cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) concentrations and the risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), but up to half of patients with IHD may have cholesterol levels in the normal range., Objective: To assess the ability to predict the risk of IHD using a cluster of nontraditional metabolic risk factors that includes elevated fasting insulin and apolipoprotein B levels as well as small, dense LDL particles., Design: Nested case-control study., Setting: Cases and controls were identified from the population-based cohort of the Quebec Cardiovascular Study, a prospective study conducted in men free of IHD in 1985 and followed up for 5 years., Participants: Incident IHD cases were matched with controls selected from among the sample of men who remained IHD free during follow-up. Matching variables were age, smoking habits, body mass index, and alcohol consumption. The sample included 85 complete pairs of nondiabetic IHD cases and controls., Main Outcome Measures: Ability of fasting insulin level, apolipoprotein B level, and LDL particle diameter to predict IHD events, defined as angina, coronary insufficiency, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and coronary death., Results: The risk of IHD was significantly increased in men who had elevated fasting plasma insulin and apolipoprotein B levels and small, dense LDL particles, compared with men who had normal levels for 2 of these 3 risk factors (odds ratio [OR], 5.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-15.4). Multivariate adjustment for LDL-C, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) did not attenuate the relationship between the cluster of nontraditional risk factors and IHD (OR, 5.2; 95% CI, 1.7-15.7). On the other hand, the risk of IHD in men having a combination of elevated LDL-C and triglyceride levels and reduced HDL-C levels was no longer significant (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 0.5-3.5) after multivariate adjustment for fasting plasma insulin level, apolipoprotein B level, and LDL particle size., Conclusion: Results from this prospective study suggest that the measurement of fasting plasma insulin level, apolipoprotein B level, and LDL particle size may provide further information on the risk of IHD compared with the information provided by conventional lipid variables.

Objective: To determine whether clinical selection for thrombolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction results in a skewed population for subsequent adverse cardiovascular events., Design: A comparison of the clinical features of the patients in the Survival and Ventricular Enlargement Study who either had or had not received thrombolytic therapy was conducted in both univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses., Setting: Hospitalized patients experiencing acute myocardial infarction from 112 broadly representative, private, academic, and government hospitals in the United States and Canada., Patients: All patients in the Survival and Ventricular Enlargement Study had had a recent myocardial infarction (less than 16 days) and had a left ventricular ejection fraction of 40% or less., Intervention: Thrombolytic therapy was administered to 733 patients and was not given to 1498., Main Outcome Measures: The comparisons with respect to use of thrombolytic therapy were formulated after the completion of enrollment and indicated that the majority of patients did not receive thrombolytic therapy., Results: The 1498 (67.1%) patients who did not receive thrombolytic therapy were at higher risk (older age, lower functional capacity, greater likelihood of a history of prior myocardial infarction, angina, diabetes, and hypertension) for subsequent cardiovascular events and, as anticipated, were more likely to have concomitant gastrointestinal and neurological diseases. A multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that older age, prior myocardial infarction, impaired functional status, employment status, diabetes, and neurological diseases were predictors of use of thrombolytic therapy., Conclusion: Although the Survival and Ventricular Enlargement Study population was selected for left ventricular dysfunction, the majority of patients who currently are judged clinically as unsuitable for thrombolytic therapy have a higher risk for adverse cardiovascular events.