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Importance: Alzheimer disease (AD) pathology starts with a prolonged phase of β-amyloid (Aβ) accumulation without symptoms. The duration of this phase differs greatly among individuals. While this disease phase has high relevance for clinical trial designs, it is currently unclear how to best predict the onset of clinical progression., Objective: To evaluate combinations of different plasma biomarkers for predicting cognitive decline in Aβ-positive cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals., Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective population-based prognostic study evaluated data from 2 prospective longitudinal cohort studies (the Swedish BioFINDER-1 and the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer Prevention [WRAP]), with data collected from February 8, 2010, to October 21, 2020, for the BioFINDER-1 cohort and from August 11, 2011, to June 27, 2021, for the WRAP cohort. Participants were CU individuals recruited from memory clinics who had brain Aβ pathology defined by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Aβ42/40 in the BioFINDER-1 study and by Pittsburgh Compound B (PiB) positron emission tomography (PET) in the WRAP study. A total of 564 eligible Aβ-positive and Aβ-negative CU participants with available relevant data from the BioFINDER-1 and WRAP cohorts were included in the study; of those, 171 Aβ-positive participants were included in the main analyses., Exposures: Baseline P-tau181, P-tau217, P-tau231, glial fibrillary filament protein, and neurofilament light measured in plasma; CSF biomarkers in the BioFINDER-1 cohort, and PiB PET uptake in the WRAP cohort., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was longitudinal measures of cognition (using the Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE] and the modified Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite [mPACC]) over a median of 6 years (range, 2-10 years). The secondary outcome was conversion to AD dementia. Baseline biomarkers were used in linear regression models to predict rates of longitudinal cognitive change (calculated separately). Models were adjusted for age, sex, years of education, apolipoprotein E ε4 allele status, and baseline cognition. Multivariable models were compared based on model R2 coefficients and corrected Akaike information criterion., Results: Among 171 Aβ-positive CU participants included in the main analyses, 119 (mean [SD] age, 73.0 [5.4] years; 60.5% female) were from the BioFINDER-1 study, and 52 (mean [SD] age, 64.4 [4.6] years; 65.4% female) were from the WRAP study. In the BioFINDER-1 cohort, plasma P-tau217 was the best marker to predict cognitive decline in the mPACC (model R2 = 0.41) and the MMSE (model R2 = 0.34) and was superior to the covariates-only models (mPACC: R2 = 0.23; MMSE: R2 = 0.04; P < .001 for both comparisons). Results were validated in the WRAP cohort; for example, plasma P-tau217 was associated with mPACC slopes (R2 = 0.13 vs 0.01 in the covariates-only model; P = .01) and MMSE slopes (R2 = 0.29 vs 0.24 in the covariates-only model; P = .046). Sparse models were identified with plasma P-tau217 as a predictor of cognitive decline. Power calculations for enrichment in hypothetical clinical trials revealed large relative reductions in sample sizes when using plasma P-tau217 to enrich for CU individuals likely to experience cognitive decline over time., Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, plasma P-tau217 predicted cognitive decline in patients with preclinical AD. These findings suggest that plasma P-tau217 may be used as a complement to CSF or PET for participant selection in clinical trials of novel disease-modifying treatments.

Importance: Characterization of early tau deposition in individuals with preclinical Alzheimer disease (AD) is critical for prevention trials that aim to select individuals at risk for AD and halt the progression of disease., Objective: To evaluate the prevalence of cortical tau positron emission tomography (PET) heterogeneity in a large cohort of clinically unimpaired older adults with elevated β-amyloid (A+)., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study examined prerandomized tau PET, amyloid PET, structural magnetic resonance imaging, demographic, and cognitive data from the Anti-Amyloid Treatment in Asymptomatic AD (A4) Study from April 2014 to December 2017. Follow-up analyses used observational tau PET data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), the Harvard Aging Brain Study (HABS), and the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention and the Wisconsin Alzheimer's Disease Research Center (together hereinafter referred to as Wisconsin) to evaluate consistency. Participants were clinically unimpaired at the study visit closest to the tau PET scan and had available amyloid and tau PET data (A4 Study, n = 447; ADNI, n = 433; HABS, n = 190; and Wisconsin, n = 328). No participants who met eligibility criteria were excluded. Data were analyzed from May 11, 2021, to January 25, 2022., Main Outcomes and Measures: Individuals with preclinical AD with heterogeneous cortical tau PET patterns (A+T cortical+) were identified by examining asymmetrical cortical tau signal and disproportionate cortical tau signal relative to medial temporal lobe (MTL) tau. Voxelwise tau patterns, amyloid, neurodegeneration, cognition, and demographic characteristics were examined., Results: The 447 A4 participants (A+ group, 392; and normal β-amyloid group, 55), with a mean (SD) age of 71.8 (4.8) years, included 239 women (54%). A total of 36 individuals in the A+ group (9% of the A+ group) exhibited heterogeneous cortical tau patterns and were further categorized into 3 subtypes: asymmetrical left, precuneus dominant, and asymmetrical right. A total of 116 individuals in the A+ group (30% of the A+ group) showed elevated MTL tau (A+T MTL+). Individuals in the A+T cortical+ group were younger than those in the A+T MTL+ group (t61.867 = -2.597; P = .03). Across the A+T cortical+ and A+T MTL+ groups, increased regional tau was associated with reduced hippocampal volume and MTL thickness but not with cortical thickness. Memory scores were comparable between the A+T cortical+ and A+T MTL+ groups, whereas executive functioning scores were lower for the A+T cortical+ group than for the A+T MTL+ group. The prevalence of the A+T cortical+ group and tau patterns within the A+T cortical+ group were consistent in ADNI, HABS, and Wisconsin., Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that early tau deposition may follow multiple trajectories during preclinical AD and may involve several cortical regions. Staging procedures, especially those based on neuropathology, that assume a uniform trajectory across individuals are insufficient for disease monitoring with tau imaging.