1. Economic analysis for impact of some monetary policy variables on the value of agricultural output in Iraq using VECM model.
- Author
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Madlul, Najlaa S., Mustafa, Munther S., and Rahim, Firas I.
- Subjects
- *
VALUE (Economics) , *ECONOMIC impact , *MONETARY policy , *AGRICULTURE , *INTEREST rates , *VECTOR error-correction models , *COINTEGRATION - Abstract
The research aims to analysis the impact of some economic policy variables on the value of agricultural resultant in Iraq for the period (2004-2020) using quarterly time series. The independent variables were used (foreign exchange window FC, narrow money supply M1, equilibrium exchange rate CE, interest rate imposed on agricultural loans R, value of agricultural imports M, while the value of agricultural output Y was adopted as the dependent variable. The researcher used the modern methodology to analyze the chains The temporal data from unit root test, Johansson co-integration test and using error correction vector model (VECM), shock measurement using IRF and DC variance components analysis with the introduction of all available standard tests to judge the quality of the model and its free from standard problems, the results indicated that all The variables had significant trace on the value of agricultural resultant, with the exception of the foreign currency sale window variable, where the results showed that it had no significant trace on the value of agricultural resultant because its impact was mention on the value of agricultural resultant, as well as the error correction value of the parameter C1 was negative, significant and smaller than The one, which amounted to (-0.10), mention that the speed is somewhat slow to the equilibrium state of adjusting the system. T is so normal in this model, that is because it excludes the general trend of the variables, and the focus here is on the value of F, which appeared significant 7.69, which mention the significance of the model as a whole. The researcher recommended the necessity of having a strategy to confront the development of the agricultural sector in Iraq by creating a revolution that focuses on the technical and technical aspects and works on the strategy of introducing modern means of production to the agricultural sector. The market mechanism, in addition to working to reduce agricultural imports, which was the largest proportion of dumping the Iraqi market with foreign products, as well research recommends increasing agricultural investments by reducing interest rates imposed on agricultural loans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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