1. Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns
- Author
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Lorenzo Mentaschi, Luc Feyen, Michalis Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Alessandro Dosio, Mentaschi L., Vousdoukas M.I., Voukouvalas E., Dosio A., and Feyen L.
- Subjects
teleconnection ,Coastal hazards ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,AAO, ENSO, and NAO ,0208 environmental biotechnology ,nonstationary EVA ,Northern Hemisphere ,Energy flux ,Representative Concentration Pathways ,02 engineering and technology ,coastal hazard ,01 natural sciences ,020801 environmental engineering ,Geophysics ,Oceanography ,North Atlantic oscillation ,Climatology ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Environmental science ,extreme wave ,wave climate changes ,Antarctic oscillation ,Southern Hemisphere ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Teleconnection - Abstract
In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long-term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low-lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.
- Published
- 2017
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