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International audience; Atmospheric rivers, or long but narrow regions of enhanced water vapor transport, are an important component of the hydrologic cycle as they are responsible for much of the poleward transport of water vapor and result in precipitation, sometimes extreme in intensity. Despite their importance, much uncertainty remains in the detection of atmospheric rivers in large datasets such as reanalyses and century scale climate simulations. To understand this uncertainty, the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) developed tiered experiments, including the Tier 2 Reanalysis Intercomparison that is presented here. Eleven detection algorithms submitted hourly tags--binary fields indicating the presence or absence of atmospheric rivers--of detected atmospheric rivers in the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5) as well as six-hourly tags in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). Due to a higher climatological mean for integrated water vapor transport in MERRA-2, atmospheric rivers were detected more frequently relative to the other two reanalyses, particularly in algorithms that use a fixed threshold for water vapor transport. The finer horizontal resolution of ERA5 resulted in narrower atmospheric rivers and an ability to detect atmospheric rivers along resolved coastlines. The fraction of hemispheric area covered by ARs varies throughout the year in all three reanalyses, with different atmospheric river detection tools having different seasonal cycles.

We describe a new, more accurate procedure for estimating and removing inner zone background contamination from Van Allen Probes Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) radiation belt measurements. This new procedure is based on the underlying assumption that the primary source of background contamination in the electron measurements at L shells less than three, energetic inner belt protons, is relatively stable. Since a magnetic spectrometer can readily distinguish between foreground electrons and background signals, we are able to exploit the proton stability to construct a model of the background contamination in each MagEIS detector by only considering times when the measurements are known to be background dominated. We demonstrate, for relativistic electron measurements in the inner zone, that the new technique is a significant improvement upon the routine background corrections that are used in the standard MagEIS data processing, which can “overcorrect” and therefore remove real (but small) electron fluxes. As an example, we show that the previously reported 1‐MeV injection into the inner zone that occurred in June of 2015 was distributed more broadly in L and persisted in the inner zone longer than suggested by previous estimates. Such differences can have important implications for both scientific studies and spacecraft engineering applications that make use of MagEIS electron data in the inner zone at relativistic energies. We compare these new results with prior work and present more recent observations that also show a 1‐MeV electron injection into the inner zone following the September 2017 interplanetary shock passage., Key Points A new background correction algorithm for relativistic inner zone electrons is developedWe find important differences versus the standard algorithm, with several new/clarified features revealedData from the new algorithm should be used for quantitative inner zone studies at energies >0.7 MeV

Solar energetic particles are one of the main sources of particle radiation seen in space. In the first part of September 2017 the most active solar period of cycle 24 produced four large X-class flares and a series of (interplanetary) coronal mass ejections, which gave rise to radiation storms seen over all energies and at the ground by neutron monitors. This paper presents comprehensive cross comparisons of in situ radiation detector data from near-Earth satellites to give an appraisal on the state of present data processing for monitors of such particles. Many of these data sets have been the target of previous cross calibrations, and this event with a hard spectrum provides the opportunity to validate these results. As a result of the excellent agreement found between these data sets and the use of neutron monitor data, this paper also presents an analytical expression for fluence spectrum for the event. Derived ionizing dose values have been computed to show that although there is a significant high-energy component, the event was not particularly concerning as regards dose effects in spacecraft electronics. Several sets of spacecraft data illustrating single event effects are presented showing a more significant impact in this regard. Such a hard event can penetrate thick shielding; human dose quantities measured inside the International Space Station and derived through modeling for aircraft altitudes are also presented. Lastly, simulation results of coronal mass ejection propagation through the heliosphere are presented along with data from Mars-orbiting spacecraft in addition to data from the Mars surface.

Curtain precipitation is a recently discovered stationary, persistent, and latitudinally narrow electron precipitation phenomenon in low Earth orbit. Curtains are observed over consecutive passes of the dual AeroCube‐6 CubeSats while their in‐track lag varied from a fraction of a second to 65 s, with dosimeters that are sensitive to >35‐keV electrons. This study uses the AeroCube‐6 mission to quantify the statistical properties of 1,634 curtains observed over 3 years. We found that many curtains are narrower than 10 km in the latitudinal direction with 90% narrower than 20 km. We examined the geographic, magnetic local time, and geomagnetic dependence of curtains. We found that curtains are observed in the late‐morning and premidnight magnetic local times, with a higher occurrence rate at premidnight, and curtains are observed more often during times of enhanced Auroral Electrojet. We found a few curtains in the bounce loss cone region above the North Atlantic, whose electrons were continuously scattered for at least 6 s. Such observations suggest that continuous curtain precipitation may be a significant loss of >35‐keV electrons from the magnetosphere into the atmosphere. We hypothesize that the curtains observed in the bounce loss cone were accelerated by parallel electric fields, and we show that this mechanism is consistent with the observations., Key Points The dual AeroCube‐6 CubeSats are used to identify stationary, narrow in latitude, and persistent >35‐keV electron curtain precipitationNinety percent of the observed curtains in low Earth orbit are narrower than 20 km in the latitudinal directionSome curtains continuously precipitated into the atmosphere for multiple seconds

Microbursts are an impulsive increase of electrons from the radiation belts into the atmosphere and have been directly observed in low Earth orbit and the upper atmosphere. Prior work has estimated that microbursts are capable of rapidly depleting the radiation belt electrons on the order of a day; hence, their role to radiation belt electron losses must be considered. Losses due to microbursts are not well constrained, and more work is necessary to accurately quantify their contribution as a loss process. To address this question, we present a statistical study of >35 keV microburst sizes using the pair of AeroCube‐6 CubeSats. The microburst size distribution in low Earth orbit and the magnetic equator was derived using both spacecraft. In low Earth orbit, the majority of microbursts were observed, while the AeroCube‐6 separation was less than a few tens of kilometers, mostly in latitude. To account for the statistical effects of random microburst locations and sizes, Monte Carlo and analytic models were developed to test hypothesized microburst size distributions. A family of microburst size distributions were tested, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler was used to estimate the optimal distribution of model parameters. Finally, a majority of observed microbursts map to sizes less than 200 km at the magnetic equator. Since microbursts are widely believed to be generated by scattering of radiation belt electrons by whistler mode waves, the observed microburst size distribution was compared to whistler mode chorus size distributions derived in prior literature., Key Points The dual AeroCube‐6 CubeSats simultaneously observed >35 keV microbursts at a variety of spatial separations ranging from 2 to 100 kmIn low Earth orbit the majority of microbursts have a size on the order of a few tens of kmMapped to the magnetic equator, the majority of microbursts are less than 200 km in size, corresponding to the size of chorus wave packets

Prior studies of microburst precipitation have largely relied on estimates of the spatial scale and temporal duration of the microburst region in order to determine the radiation belt loss rate of relativistic electrons. These estimates have often relied on the statistical distribution of microburst events. However, few studies have directly observed the spatial and temporal evolution of a single microburst event. In this study, we combine Balloon Array for Radiation belt Relativistic Electron Losses balloon-borne X-ray measurements with Focused Investigations of Relativistic Electron Burst: Intensity, Range, and Dynamics II and AeroCube-6 CubeSat electron measurements to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of a microburst region in the morning MLT sector on 13 August 2015. The microburst region is found to extend across at least 4 h in local time in the morning sector, from 09:00 to 13:00 MLT, and from L of 5 out to 10. The microburst event lasts for nearly 9 h. Smaller scale structure is investigated using the dual AeroCube-6 CubeSats, and is found to be consistent with the spatial size of whistler mode chorus wave observations near the equatorial plane.

We present measurements of relativistic electrons (0.7–1.5 MeV) in the inner zone and slot region obtained by the Magnetic Electron and Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) instrument on Van Allen Probes. The data presented are corrected for background contamination, which is primarily due to inner-belt protons in these low-L regions. We find that ∼1 MeV electrons were transported into the inner zone following the two largest geomagnetic storms of the Van Allen Probes era to date, the March and June 2015 events. As ∼1 MeV electrons were not observed in Van Allen Probes data in the inner zone prior to these two events, the injections created a new inner belt that persisted for at least 1.5 years. In contrast, we find that electrons injected into the slot region decay on much faster timescales, approximately tens of days. Furthermore, we find no evidence of >1.5 MeV electrons in the inner zone during the entire time interval considered (April 2013 through September 2016). The energies we examine thus span a transition range in the steeply falling inner zone electron spectrum, where modest intensities are observed at 0.7 MeV, and no electrons are observed at 1.5 MeV. To validate the results obtained from the background corrected flux measurements, we also present detailed pulse-height spectra from individual MagEIS detectors. These measurements confirm our results and also reveal low-intensity inner zone and slot region electrons that are not captured in the standard background corrected data product. Finally, we briefly discuss efforts to refine the upper limit of inner zone MeV electron flux obtained in earlier work.

Using recent data from NASA's Van Allen Probes, we estimate the quiet time radial diffusion coefficients for electrons in the inner radiation belt (L

We present initial dual spacecraft observations that for the first time both constrain the spatial scale size and provide spectral properties at medium energies of electron microbursts. We explore individual microburst events that occurred on 2 February 2015 using simultaneous observations made by the twin CubeSats which comprise the National Science Foundation (NSF) Focused Investigations of Relativistic Electron Bursts: Intensity, Range, and Dynamics (FIREBIRD II). During these microburst events, the two identically instrumented FIREBIRD II CubeSats were separated by as little as 11 km while traversing electron precipitation regions in low-Earth orbit. These coincident microburst events map to size scales >120 km at the equator. Given the prevalence of coincident and noncoincident events we conclude that this is of the same order of magnitude as that of the spatial scale size of electron microburst, an unknown property that is critical for quantifying their overall role in radiation belt dynamics. Finally, we present measurements of electron microbursts showing that precipitation often occurs simultaneously across a broad energy range spanning 200 keV to 1 MeV, a new form of empirical evidence that provides additional insights into the physics of microburst generation mechanisms.

We use Van Allen Probes data to investigate the responses of tens of keV to 2 MeV electrons throughout a broad range of the radiation belts (2.5 ≤ L ≤ 6.0) during 52 geomagnetic storms from the most recent solar maximum. Electron storm time responses are highly dependent on both electron energy and L shell. Tens of keV electrons typically have peak fluxes in the inner belt or near-Earth plasma sheet and fill the inner magnetosphere during storm main phases. Approximately 100 to ~600 keV electrons are enhanced in up to 87% of cases around L~3.7, and their peak flux location moves to lower L shells during storm recovery phases. Relativistic electrons (≥~1 MeV) are nearly equally likely to produce enhancement, depletion, and no-change events in the outer belt. We also show that the L shell of peak flux correlates to storm magnitude only for hundreds of keV electrons.

Data from the Deal dosimeter payload on the Rapid Pathfinder satellite provide daily maps of the radiation environment on a sphere at 1200 km altitude. Through the use of magnetic coordinates, these dosimeter maps can be projected down to lower altitudes, providing valuable information for satellite anomaly resolution for vehicles in low Earth orbit (LEO). Unfortunately, the Deal data are not widely available, and the mission has a limited lifetime. As an alternative, we present a method to estimate the Deal daily maps using belt index data from NOAA's Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) vehicles. The method addresses only trapped radiation but could readily be supplemented with POES's own measurements of solar particle radiation reaching LEO.

We describe an automated computer algorithm designed to remove background contamination from the Van Allen Probes Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) electron flux measurements. We provide a detailed description of the algorithm with illustrative examples from on-orbit data. We find two primary sources of background contamination in the MagEIS electron data: inner zone protons and bremsstrahlung X-rays generated by energetic electrons interacting with the spacecraft material. Bremsstrahlung X-rays primarily produce contamination in the lower energy MagEIS electron channels (∼30–500 keV) and in regions of geospace where multi-MeV electrons are present. Inner zone protons produce contamination in all MagEIS energy channels at roughly L < 2.5. The background-corrected MagEIS electron data produce a more accurate measurement of the electron radiation belts, as most earlier measurements suffer from unquantifiable and uncorrectable contamination in this harsh region of the near-Earth space environment. These background-corrected data will also be useful for spacecraft engineering purposes, providing ground truth for the near-Earth electron environment and informing the next generation of spacecraft design models (e.g., AE9).

From a survey of the first nightside season of NASA's Van Allen Probes mission (December 2012 to September 2013), 47 energetic (tens to hundreds of keV) electron injection events were found at L shells ≤ 4, all of which are deeper than any previously reported substorm-related injections. Preliminary details from these events are presented, including how all occurred shortly after dipolarization signatures and injections were observed at higher L shells, how the deepest observed injection was at L ~ 2.5, and, surprisingly, how L ≤ 4 injections are limited in energy to ≤250 keV. We present a detailed case study of one example event revealing that the injection of electrons down to L ~ 3.5 was different from injections observed at higher L and likely resulted from electrons interacting with a fast magnetosonic wave in the Pi2 frequency range inside the plasmasphere. These observations demonstrate that injections occur at very low L shells and may play an important role for inner zone electrons.

We present Van Allen Probe observations of electrons in the inner radiation zone. The measurements were made by the Energetic Particle, Composition, and Thermal Plasma/Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) sensors that were designed to measure electrons with the ability to remove unwanted signals from penetrating protons, providing clean measurements. No electrons >900 keV were observed with equatorial fluxes above background (i.e., >0.1 el/(cm2 s sr keV)) in the inner zone. The observed fluxes are compared to the AE9 model and CRRES observations. Electron fluxes

We describe a method for using drift echo signatures in on-orbit data to resolve discrepancies between different measurements of particle flux. The drift period has a well-defined energy dependence, which gives rise to time dispersion of the echoes. The dispersion can then be used to determine the effective energy for one or more channels given each channel's drift period and the known energy for a reference channel. We demonstrate this technique on multiple instruments from the Van Allen Probes mission. Drift echoes are only easily observed at high energies (100 s keV to multiple MeV), where several drift periods occur before the observing satellite has moved on or the global magnetic conditions have changed. We describe a first-order correction for spacecraft motion. The drift echo technique has provided a significant clue in resolving substantial flux discrepancies between two instruments measuring fluxes near 2 MeV.

Asymmetries in the magnetospheric magnetic field produce drift shell splitting, which causes the radial (drift shell) invariant to sometimes depend on pitch angle. Where drift shell splitting is significant, pitch angle scattering leads to diffusion in all three invariants of the particle's motion, including cross diffusion. We examine the magnitude of drift shell splitting-related anomalous diffusion for outer zone electrons compared to conventional diffusion in the absence of drift shell splitting. We assume that the primary local scattering process is wave-particle interactions with chorus. We find that anomalous radial diffusion can exceed that of conventional drift-resonant radial diffusion for particles with energies near 0.1 MeV at all radial distances outside the plasmasphere during quiet to moderate geomagnetic activity, and it is significant at 0.5 MeV. Cross diffusion involving the radial invariant can exceed the geometric mean of the corresponding pure diffusion coefficients at 0.1 MeV, and that such cross diffusion is significant even at 0.5–1 MeV. At 1 MeV, cross diffusion is often significant. The highest radial distances and magnetic activity levels in our study do not always exhibit as much significant anomalous diffusion as moderate radial distances and activity levels. This can be explained by (a) stronger dependence of conventional diffusion on magnetic activity and radius, and (b) strongest drift shell splitting at moderate magnetic activity. Simulation codes that neglect the possibility for cross terms will likely systematically underperform, especially for 0.1–0.5 MeV electrons, for much of the outer zone for quiet to moderate levels of magnetic activity.

We report large directional anisotropies of >60 MeV protons using instrumentation on the Van Allen Probes. The combination of a spinning satellite and measurements from the Relativistic Proton Spectrometer instruments that are insensitive to protons outside the instrument field of view together yield a new look at proton radial gradients. The relatively large proton gyroradius at 60 MeV couples with the radial gradients to produce large (maximum ~10:1) flux anisotropies depending on (i) whether the proton guiding center was above or below the Van Allen Probes spacecraft and (ii) the sign of the local flux gradient. In addition to these newly measured anisotropies, below ~2000 km we report a new effect of systematically changing minimum altitude on some proton drift shells that further modulates the anisotropy caused by the atmosphere. This discovery may offer a new way of monitoring changes to the loss of inner belt protons into the Earth's atmosphere.

Using data from NASA's Van Allen Probes, we have identified a synchronized exponential decay of electron flux in the outer zone, near L* = 5.0. Exponential decays strongly indicate the presence of a pure eigenmode of a diffusion operator acting in the synchronized dimension(s). The decay has a time scale of about 4 days with no dependence on pitch angle. While flux at nearby energies and L* is also decaying exponentially, the decay time varies in those dimensions. This suggests the primary decay mechanism is elastic pitch angle scattering, which itself depends on energy and L*. We invert the shape of the observed eigenmode to obtain an approximate shape of the pitch angle diffusion coefficient and show excellent agreement with diffusion by plasmaspheric hiss. Our results suggest that empirically derived eigenmodes provide a powerful diagnostic of the dynamic processes behind exponential decays.

Relativistic electron observations near geostationary orbit routinely show pitch angle distributions peaked away from 90 degrees. These “butterfly” distributions are consistent with magnetic drift shell splitting combined with a radial flux gradient. During magnetic storms, nature adds pitch angle scattering to split drift shells, breaking all three adiabatic invariants of the particle's motion. Therefore, some degree of anomalous radial diffusion is likely, and cross terms between the gyration and drift invariants and between the bounce and drift invariants arise. Using typical assumptions about the pitch angle scattering and the magnetic field topology, we calculate these anomalous diffusion coefficients near geostationary orbit. We show that the anomalous radial diffusion can exceed that due to more traditional drift-resonant wave-particle interactions. We also show that the neglected cross terms, particularly the bounce-drift cross term, can be significant. These results suggest necessary additions to some global electron radiation belt simulations.

Relativistic electrons appear in the geosynchronous environment following some, but not all, geomagnetic storms. The ability to identify which storms produce these electrons would bring us much closer to explaining the mechanism responsible for their appearance, and it would provide the space weather community with a means to anticipate the electron hazard to geosynchronous spacecraft. We apply a recently developed statistical technique to produce an hourly time series of relativistic electron conditions at local noon along geosynchronous orbit using several geosynchronous monitors. We use a cross-correlation analysis to determine what parameters in the solar wind and magnetosphere might influence the flux of relativistic electrons. We then perform a superposed epoch analysis to compare storms with and storms without the appearance of these electrons. We investigate a number of solar wind and magnetospheric parameters for these two sets of storms at 1-hour resolution. In particular, sustained solar wind velocity in excess of 450 km s−1 is a strong external indicator of the subsequent appearance of relativistic electrons. In the magnetosphere, long-duration elevated Pc 5 ULF wave power during the recovery phase of magnetic storms appears to discriminate best between those storms that do and do not produce relativistic electrons.

This empirical analysis of the terrestrial ring current, as measured by Dst, uses conditional probability density in Dst phase space to determine the evolution of the ring current. This analysis method does not assume a dynamic equation, but merely requires that the evolution of Dst depends on Dst and the solar wind. Our simple model, with seven nontrivial parameters, describes the dynamics of 30 years of hourly Dst with solar wind data provided by the OMNI database. The solar wind coupling is assumed to be determined by VBs. We arrive at a dynamic equation nearly identical to the Burton equation (Burton et al., 1975) with a slight correction. The method is restricted to Dst > −150 nT owing to the rarity of larger excursions. We show that the ring current decay lifetime varies with VBs but not with Dst, and we relate this variation to the position of convection boundaries in the magnetosphere. Convection boundaries closer to the Earth result in shorter charge exchange decay times owing to the higher neutral density near the Earth. The decay time in hours varies as τ = 2.40 exp [9.74/(4.69+VBs)] with VBs in millivolts per meter. We also show that the energy injection function as derived by Burton et al. is essentially correct. The injection Q is zero for VBs Ec. We derive the correction for magnetopause contamination: Dst* = Dst −7.26P1/2 + 11 nT, where P is solar wind dynamic pressure in nanopascals. Finally, we apply the model to a moderate storm and to an intense storm. We demonstrate that, in spite of the fact that spacecraft observe compositional changes in the ring current at intense Dst, the dynamics of the two storms are not obviously different in the context of our model. We demonstrate that the generally observed dependence of the decay parameter on Dst is actually an alias of the coincidence of intense Dst and intense VBs.

Electrons of energy several MeV or greater have been implicated in the failure and malfunction of geostationary spacecraft. It is therefore important to be able to specify and even forecast the fluxes of these particles during and following geomagnetic storms. A first step is the understanding of their relationship to lower-energy electrons that can already be well modeled. It is therefore the goal of this paper to examine the relative time, spatial, and spectral relationships between 1.5 MeV electrons and intermediate energy electrons down to about 100 keV. For the November 1993 geomagnetic storm we find that electrons from about 100 keV to 1.5 MeV at GEO can be conveniently characterized by a power law spectrum and that the slope and intercept of this spectrum vary in systematic ways during the storm. This suggests the possibility of developing prediction filters or artificial neural networks, driven by a storm activity indicator (such as Dst), local time and a lower-energy electron flux, to specify the energetic electron spectral characteristics. We further find that local time diurnal effects are an important contributor to the apparent time delay of the recovery of energetic electrons and when these effects are considered the recovery phase enhancement is nearly uniform across the spectrum. This paper will report the spatial and temporal morphology of these intermediate to energetic electrons, their characterization by a power law and the variations of the power law slope and intercept throughout the November 1993 storm. These temporal, spatial, and spectral properties suggest that the recovery phase enhancement is due to the entry of the intermediate energy electrons from the geomagnetic tail as part of the storm injection process. We also discuss our success at building an Artificial Neural Network system to specify the storm time energetic electron flux spectra.

The interplanetary electromagnetic fields are generally considered the drivers of the storm-time terrestrial ring current. Recently, the solar wind density has been advocated as an additional driver. Solar wind density partially determines the density in the plasma sheet, which, in turn, is the likely source for the ring current. Therefore, the solar wind density may drive the ring current by enhancing the ring current source plasma. Some studies, using a few years of data, have found a strong statistical signal for a solar wind density driver with a few hours lag prior to the maximum ring current intensity, as measured by a minimum in Dst. However, we show, using a much larger database of storms, that no consistent role for density alone is evident on time scales of a few hours. The previously reported statistical signal seems to be isolated to a particular interval from November 1994 through September 1995.

[1] Indications of the space environment hazard at any point in space and time along geosynchronous orbit (GEO) can be obtained using the set of rules described in this paper. These rules are implemented using real-time Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite particle sensor data and the magnetic index Kp. These rules should be useful for both real-time and posthoc analysis of GEO spacecraft anomalies. The hazards covered are surface charging, internal charging, single-event effects due to solar particle events, and total dose (solar arrays). The system provides a “hazard quotient,” the ratio of the instantaneous to mission-averaged likelihood of an anomaly due to each hazard, based on environmental measurements. With the exception of total dose, the hazard quotients are derived from lists of on-orbit anomalies or their proxies, and it is assumed that the probability of future anomalies will share the same functional dependence on the environment exhibited by the anomalies in the lists. Hazard quotients are potentially more valuable to satellite operators than are raw measurements, as hazard quotients directly convey the statistical relationship between the radiation environment and the likelihood of an anomaly.

[1] Following the work of Koons (2001), we examine the statistical properties of extremely high fluxes of MeV electrons in the outer zone. We extend the analysis to include a variety of timescales and energies using observations from Los Alamos monitors at geosynchronous orbit and to include outer zone fluxes observed from L ∼ 2–8 by spacecraft in highly elliptical Molniya orbits. We use the statistical formalism of the generalized extreme value distribution, which represents the probability distribution of the maximum value taken out of a sample of fixed size. By taking the maximum flux observed in many nonoverlapping intervals of several hours to several days, we can determine whether the maximum flux is likely to have a finite upper limit or an exponential or power law tail. Our analysis indicates that MeV electron fluxes over a broad range of energies, L shells, and timescales have a finite upper limit, a true worst case. However, the statistical estimate of this upper limit is inherently uncertain. We compare our upper limits to the internal charging specifications provided by Fennell et al. (2000). We discuss several possible physical explanations for the flux limits.

[1] During January, 2005, there were several large X-class solar flares and associated solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Coincidentally, the MINIS balloon campaign had multiple payloads aloft in the stratosphere above Antarctica measuring dc electric fields, conductivity and x-ray flux. One-to-one increases in the electrical conductivity and decreases to near zero of both the vertical and horizontal electric field components were observed in conjunction with an increase in particle flux at SEP onset. Combined with an atmospheric electric field mapping model, these data are consistent with a shorting out of the global electric circuit and point toward substantial ionospheric convection modifications. Additionally, two subsequent, rapid changes were detected in the vertical electric field component several hours after SEP onset. These changes result in similar fluctuations in the calculated vertical current density. We will describe how rigidity cut-off dynamics may be crucial in understanding these sudden jumps in the vertical electric field.

[1] We explore the statistical limits on the complexity of data-derived models of magnetic storm phenomena, including magnetic indices, plasmapause evolution, and outer radiation belt dynamics. Specifically, we estimate the limits on the number of free parameters justifiable by application of Occam's razor, or the rule of parsimony. These limits arise from the strong intercorrelation of geomagnetic phenomena, which decimates the effective sample size of independent observations of magnetic storm phenomena. We show that the resulting paucity of distinct magnetic storms over the history of magnetic indices and satellite observations severely limits the justifiable complexity of data-derived models. Our analysis applies to a wide variety of models with a finite number of constant free parameters but not to models with time-varying parameters nor to nearest-neighbors models.