Search

Dynamical variations of radiation belt trapped electron fluxes are examined to better understand the variability of enhancements linked to substorm clusters. Analysis is undertaken using the Substorm Onsets and Phases from Indices of the Electrojet (SOPHIE) substorm cluster algorithm for event detection. Observations from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are complemented by additional measurements from Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) to allow a major expansion in the energy range considered, from medium energy energetic electrons up to ultra-relativistic electrons. The number of substorms identified inside a cluster does not depend strongly on solar wind drivers or geomagnetic indices either before, during, or after the cluster start time. Clusters of substorms linked to moderate (100nT

In this paper, we study electron radial diffusion coefficients derived from Pc4‐Pc5 ultralow frequency (ULF) wave power during the intense geomagnetic storm on 17–18 March 2015. During this storm the population of highly relativistic electrons was depleted within 2 hr of the storm commencement. This radial diffusion, depending upon the availability of source populations, can cause outward radial diffusion of particles and their loss to the magnetosheath, or inward transport and acceleration. Analysis of electromagnetic field measurements from Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES), Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) satellite, and ground‐based magnetometers shows that the main phase storm‐specific radial diffusion coefficients do not correspond to statistical estimates. Specifically, during the main phase, the electric diffusion ( urn:x-wiley:jgra:media:jgra54863:jgra54863-math-0001) is reduced, and the magnetic diffusion ( urn:x-wiley:jgra:media:jgra54863:jgra54863-math-0002) is increased, compared to empirical models based on Kp. Contrary to prior results, the main phase magnetic radial diffusion cannot be neglected. The largest discrepancies, and periods of dominance of urn:x-wiley:jgra:media:jgra54863:jgra54863-math-0003 over urn:x-wiley:jgra:media:jgra54863:jgra54863-math-0004, occur during intervals of strongly southward IMF. However, during storm recovery, both magnetic and electric diffusion rates are consistent with empirical estimates. We further verify observationally, for the first time, an energy coherence for both urn:x-wiley:jgra:media:jgra54863:jgra54863-math-0005 and urn:x-wiley:jgra:media:jgra54863:jgra54863-math-0006 where diffusion coefficients do not depend on energy. We show that, at least for this storm, properly characterizing main phase radial diffusion, potentially associated with enhanced ULF wave magnetopause shadowing losses, cannot be done with standard empirical models. Modifications, associated especially with southward IMF, which enhance the effects of urn:x-wiley:jgra:media:jgra54863:jgra54863-math-0007 and introduce larger main phase outward transport losses, are needed.

This paper examines the rapid losses and acceleration of trapped relativistic and ultrarelativistic electron populations in the Van Allen radiation belt during the September 7-9, 2017, geomagnetic ...

Both ground and space observations are used extensively in the modeling of space weather processes within the Earth's magnetosphere. In radiation belt physics modeling, one of the key phase‐space coordinates is L*, which indicates the location of the drift paths of energetic electrons. Global magnetic field models allow a subset of locations on the ground (mainly sub‐auroral) to be mapped along field lines to a location in space and transformed into L*, provided that the initial ground location maps to a closed drift path. This allows observations from ground, or low‐altitude space‐based platforms to be mapped into space in order to inform radiation belt modeling. Many data‐based magnetic field models exist; however these models can significantly disagree on mapped L* values for a single point on the ground, during both quiet times and storms. We present a state of the art probabilistic L* mapping tool, Pro‐L*, which produces probability distributions for L* corresponding to a given ground location. Pro‐L* has been calculated for a high resolution magnetic latitude by magnetic local time (MLT) grid in the Earth's northern hemisphere. We have developed the probabilistic model using 11 years of L* calculations for 7 widely used magnetic field models. Usage of the tool is highlighted for both event studies and statistical models, and we demonstrate a number of potential applications.

Understanding extreme space weather events in terms of the geospace response is a critical step towards protecting vulnerable technological infrastructure. This is particularly relevant for the eff...

We have developed a new procedure for combining lists of substorm onset times from multiple sources. We apply this procedure to observational data and to magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model output from...

Accurate proton flux measurements of the near Earth environment are essential to the understanding of many phenomena which have a direct impact on our lives. Currently there is only a small set of satellites capable of performing these measurements which makes certain studies and analyses difficult. This paper details the capabilities of the Combined X-ray Dosimeter (CXD), flown on 21 satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation, as it relates to proton measurements. We present a cross-calibration of the CXD with the Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). By utilizing Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEPEs) when both sets of satellites were operational we have orders of magnitude in flux and energy to compare against. Robust statistical analyses show that the CXD and GOES flux calculations are similar and that for proton energies > 30 MeV the CXD fluxes are on average within 20% of EPS. Although the CXD has a response to protons as low as 6 MeV the sensitivity at energies below 20 MeV is reduced and so flux comparisons of these are generally worse. Integral flux values > 10 MeV are typically within 40% of EPS. These calibrated CXD data sets will give researchers capabilities to study solar proton access to the inner magnetosphere down to L ~ 4 near the equatorial plane at high temporal cadence.

Quasi-periodic energetic particle injections have been observed at geosynchronous orbit on the dusk-side during a steady magnetospheric convection event. We examine high-resolution auroral imager data and ground magnetometer data associated with the first of these injections and conclude that it was not associated with classical sub-storm signatures. It is proposed that these injections are caused by the explosive nonlinear growth of a shear flow-ballooning instability in the region where sub-auroral polarization streams (SAPS) also occur. It is suggested that interchange will occur preferentially in the low-conductivity SAPS region since the magnetic Richardson number is lowest there and the "line-tying" effect will also be least stabilizing there. We propose that the observed particle injection signatures and auroral morphology constitute a new type of SAPS-associated explosive "onset-like" disturbance that can occur during intervals of strong convection.

Quantitative assessment of modeling and forecasting of continuous quantities uses a variety of approaches. We review existing literature describing metrics for forecast accuracy and bias, concentrating on those based on relative errors and percentage errors. Of these accuracy metrics, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is one of the most common across many fields and has been widely applied in recent space science literature and we highlight the benefits and drawbacks of MAPE and proposed alternatives. We then introduce the log accuracy ratio and derive from it two metrics: the median symmetric accuracy and the symmetric signed percentage bias. Robust methods for estimating the spread of a multiplicative linear model using the log accuracy ratio are also presented. The developed metrics are shown to be easy to interpret, robust, and to mitigate the key drawbacks of their more widely used counterparts based on relative errors and percentage errors. Their use is illustrated with radiation belt electron flux modeling examples.

We simulated the entire month of January 2005 using the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) with observed solar wind data as input. We conducted this simulation with and without an inner magnetosphere model and tested two different grid resolutions. We evaluated the model's accuracy in predicting Kp, SYM-H, AL, and cross-polar cap potential (CPCP). We find that the model does an excellent job of predicting the SYM-H index, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 17–18 nT. Kp is predicted well during storm time conditions but overpredicted during quiet times by a margin of 1 to 1.7 Kp units. AL is predicted reasonably well on average, with an RMSE of 230–270 nT. However, the model reaches the largest negative AL values significantly less often than the observations. The model tended to overpredict CPCP, with RMSE values on the order of 46–48 kV. We found the results to be insensitive to grid resolution, with the exception of the rate of occurrence for strongly negative AL values. The use of the inner magnetosphere component, however, affected results significantly, with all quantities except CPCP improved notably when the inner magnetosphere model was on.

To achieve a better understanding of the dominant loss mechanisms for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons, three distinct radiation belt dropout events observed by Van Allen Probes are comprehensively investigated. For each event, observations of the pitch angle distribution of electron fluxes and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves are analyzed to determine the effects of atmospheric precipitation loss due to pitch angle scattering induced by EMIC waves. Last closed drift shells (LCDS) and magnetopause standoff position are obtained to evaluate the effects of magnetopause shadowing loss. Evolution of electron phase space density (PSD) versus L* profiles and the μ and K (first and second adiabatic invariants) dependence of the electron PSD drops are calculated to further analyze the dominant loss mechanisms at different L*. Our findings suggest that these radiation belt dropouts can be classified into distinct classes in terms of dominant loss mechanisms: magnetopause shadowing dominant, EMIC wave scattering dominant, and combination of both mechanisms. Different from previous understanding, our results show that magnetopause shadowing can deplete electrons at L* 4. Compared to the magnetopause standoff position, it is more reliable to use LCDS to evaluate the impact of magnetopause shadowing. The evolution of electron PSD versus L* profile and the μ, K dependence of electron PSD drops can provide critical and credible clues regarding the mechanisms responsible for electron losses at different L* over the outer radiation belt.

The most significant unknown regarding relativistic electrons in Earth's outer Van Allen radiation belt is the relative contribution of loss, transport, and acceleration processes within the inner magnetosphere. Detangling each individual process is critical to improve the understanding of radiation belt dynamics, but determining a single component is challenging due to sparse measurements in diverse spatial and temporal regimes. However, there are currently an unprecedented number of spacecraft taking measurements that sample different regions of the inner magnetosphere. With the increasing number of varied observational platforms, system dynamics can begin to be unraveled. In this work, we employ in situ measurements during the 13–14 January 2013 enhancement event to isolate transport, loss, and source dynamics in a one-dimensional radial diffusion model. We then validate the results by comparing them to Van Allen Probes and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms observations, indicating that the three terms have been accurately and individually quantified for the event. Finally, a direct comparison is performed between the model containing event-specific terms and various models containing terms parameterized by geomagnetic index. Models using a simple 3/Kp loss time scale show deviation from the event-specific model of nearly 2 orders of magnitude within 72 h of the enhancement event. However, models using alternative loss time scales closely resemble the event-specific model.

We present simulations of the outer radiation belt electron flux during the March 2015 and March 2013 storms using a radial diffusion model. Despite differences in Dst intensity between the two sto...

Since 2000, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Combined X-ray and Dosimeter (CXD) and Burst Detector Dosimeter for Block II-R (BDD-IIR) instruments have been fielded on Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. Today, 21 of the 31 operational GPS satellites are equipped with a CXD detector and a further 2 carry a BDD-IIR. Each of these instruments measures a wide range of energetic electrons and protons. These data have now been publicly released under the terms of the Executive Order for Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events. The specific goal of releasing space weather data from the GPS satellites is to enable broad scientific community engagement in enhancing space weather model validation and improvements in space weather forecasting and situational awareness. The time period covered by this data release is approximately 16 years, which corresponds to more than 167 satellite years of data. As a result, the large number of GPS satellites, distributed over six orbital planes, will provide important context for ongoing and historical science missions, as well as enabling new types of research not previously possible.

Previous studies have shown that low-energy ion heating occurs in the magnetosphere due to strong equatorial noise emission. Observations from the Van Allen Probes Helium Oxygen Proton Electron (HOPE) instrument recently determined that there was a depletion in the 1–10 eV ion population in the postmidnight sector of Earth during quiet times at L < 3. The diurnal variation of equatorially mirroring 1–10 eV H+ ions at 2 < L < 3 is connected with similar diurnal variation in the electric field component of plasma waves ranging between 150 and 600 Hz. Measurements from the Van Allen Probes Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) data set are used to analyze waves of this frequency in near-Earth space. However, when we examine the polarization of the waves in the 150 to 600 Hz range in the equatorial plane, the majority are right-hand polarized plasmaspheric hiss waves. The 1–10 eV H+ equatorially mirroring population does not interact with right-hand waves, despite a strong statistical relationship suggesting that the two are linked. We present evidence supporting the relationship, both in our own work and the literature, but we ultimately conclude that the 1–10 eV H+ heating is not related to the strong enhancement of 150 to 600 Hz waves.

Mechanisms for electron injection, trapping, and loss in the near‐Earth space environment are investigated during the October 2012 “double‐dip” storm using our ring current‐atmosphere interactions model with self‐consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB). Pitch angle and energy scattering are included for the first time in RAM‐SCB using L and magnetic local time (MLT)‐dependent event‐specific chorus wave models inferred from NOAA Polar‐orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) and Van Allen Probes Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science observations. The dynamics of the source (approximately tens of keV) and seed (approximately hundreds of keV) populations of the radiation belts simulated with RAM‐SCB is compared with Van Allen Probes Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer observations in the morning sector and with measurements from NOAA 15 satellite in the predawn and afternoon MLT sectors. We find that although the low‐energy (E< 100 keV) electron fluxes are in good agreement with observations, increasing significantly by magnetospheric convection during both SYM‐H dips while decreasing during the intermediate recovery phase, the injection of high‐energy electrons is underestimated by this mechanism throughout the storm. Local acceleration by chorus waves intensifies the electron fluxes at E≥50 keV considerably, and RAM‐SCB simulations overestimate the observed trapped fluxes by more than an order of magnitude; the precipitating fluxes simulated with RAM‐SCB are weaker, and their temporal and spatial evolutions agree well with POES/Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detectors data., Key Points First RAM‐SCB simulations with 2‐D (MLT‐ and L‐dependent) event‐specific chorus wave models inferred from LEO and RBSP dataThe measured low‐energy trapped and precipitating electron fluxes are well reproduced by magnetospheric convectionLocal acceleration by chorus waves intensifies the electron fluxes at energies E greater than approximately 50 keV and overestimates observations

Geoelectromagnetic disturbances (GMDs) are an important consequence of space weather that can directly impact many types of terrestrial infrastructure. In this paper, we analyze 30 years of SuperMAG magnetometer data from the range of magnetic latitudes 20°≤λ≤75° to derive characteristic latitudinal profiles for median GMD amplitudes. Based on this data, we obtain a parameterization of these latitudinal profiles of different types of GMDs, providing an analytical fit with Dst-dependent parameters. We also obtain probabilistic estimates for the magnitudes of “100 year” GMDs, finding that B = 6.9 (3.60–12.9) nT/s should be expected at 45°≤λ < 50°, exceeding the 5 nT/s threshold for dangerous inductive heating.

As electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves may play an important role in radiation belt dynamics, there has been a push to better include them into global simulations. How to best include EMIC wave effects is still an open question. Recently many studies have attempted to parameterize EMIC waves and their characteristics by geomagnetic indices. However, this does not fully take into account important physics related to the phase of a geomagnetic storm. In this paper we first consider how EMIC wave occurrence varies with the phase of a geomagnetic storm and the SYM-H, AE, and Kp indices. We show that the storm phase plays an important role in the occurrence probability of EMIC waves. The occurrence rates for a given value of a geomagnetic index change based on the geomagnetic condition. In this study we also describe the typical plasma and wave parameters observed in L and magnetic local time for quiet, storm, and storm phase. These results are given in a tabular format in the supporting information so that more accurate statistics of EMIC wave parameters can be incorporated into modeling efforts.

Energetic electron observations in Earth's radiation belts are typically sparse, and multipoint studies often rely on serendipitous conjunctions. This paper establishes the scientific utility of the Combined X-ray Dosimeter (CXD), currently flown on 19 satellites in the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation, by cross-calibrating energetic electron measurements against data from the Van Allen Probes. By breaking our cross calibration into two parts—one that removes any spectral assumptions from the CXD flux calculation and one that compares the energy spectra—we first validate the modeled instrument response functions, then the calculated electron fluxes. Unlike previous forward modeling of energetic electron spectra, we use a combination of four distributions that together capture a wide range of observed spectral shapes. Moreover, our two-step approach allowed us to identify, and correct for, small systematic offsets between block IIR and IIF satellites. Using the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer and Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope on Van Allen Probes as a “gold standard,” here we demonstrate that the CXD instruments are well understood. A robust statistical analysis shows that CXD and Van Allen Probes fluxes are similar and the measured fluxes from CXD are typically within a factor of 2 of Van Allen Probes at energies inline image4 MeV.more » Our team present data from 17 CXD-equipped GPS satellites covering the 2015 “St. Patrick's Day” geomagnetic storm to illustrate the scientific applications of such a high data density satellite constellation and therefore demonstrate that the GPS constellation is positioned to enable new insights in inner magnetospheric physics and space weather forecasting.« less

Relationships exist between radiation belt electron flux intensities and solar drivers such as solar wind speed, ion density, and magnetic fields. The particulars of these relationships, however, are not well understood. Many forecasting models have been developed in the last 25 years, attempting to make sense of these relationships and produce accurate forecasts for electron flux intensities. We discuss some of the inherent limitations that many forecasting models (e.g., static models) possess when trying to untangle the intricate and dynamic relationships between electron flux levels and solar wind drivers. Dynamics related to the solar cycle limit physical interpretations for static forecasting models to customized and narrow time windows. Furthermore, the interrelatedness of solar drivers severely limit the ability to uniquely partition and describe the relationship between any one solar driver with electron flux levels. We suggest an alternate approach using dynamic linear models (DLMs). DLMs avoid some of the inherent limitations of physical understanding static models possess. We compare the 1 day ahead forecast accuracy of a relatively simple DLM to the current NOAA relativistic electron forecast model (REFM). The REFM does produce a more favorable prediction efficiency averaged across years when compared to the relatively simple DLM (0.749 to 0.721). However, the competitiveness of the DLM suggests that further development may lead to more accurate and interpretable models in the future.

The DREAM3D diffusion model is applied to Van Allen Probes observations of the fast dropout and strong enhancement of MeV electrons during the October 2012 “double-dip” storm. We show that in order to explain the very different behavior in the two “dips,” diffusion in all three dimensions (energy, pitch angle, and L*) coupled with data-driven, event-specific inputs, and boundary conditions is required. Specifically, we find that outward radial diffusion to the solar wind-driven magnetopause, an event-specific chorus wave model, and a dynamic lower-energy seed population are critical for modeling the dynamics. In contrast, models that include only a subset of processes, use statistical wave amplitudes, or rely on inward radial diffusion of a seed population, perform poorly. The results illustrate the utility of the high resolution, comprehensive set of Van Allen Probes' measurements in studying the balance between source and loss in the radiation belt, a principal goal of the mission.

We expanded our previous work on L* neural networks that used empirical magnetic field models as the underlying models by applying and extending our technique to drift shells calculated from a physics-based magnetic field model. While empirical magnetic field models represent an average, statistical magnetospheric state, the RAM-SCB model, a first-principles magnetically self-consistent code, computes magnetic fields based on fundamental equations of plasma physics. Unlike the previous L* neural networks that include McIlwain L and mirror point magnetic field as part of the inputs, the new L* neural network only requires solar wind conditions and the Dst index, allowing for an easier preparation of input parameters. This new neural network is compared against those previously trained networks and validated by the tracing method in the International Radiation Belt Environment Modeling (IRBEM) library. The accuracy of all L* neural networks with different underlying magnetic field models is evaluated by applying the electron phase space density (PSD)-matching technique derived from the Liouville's theorem to the Van Allen Probes observations. Results indicate that the uncertainty in the predicted L* is statistically (75%) below 0.7 with a median value mostly below 0.2 and the median absolute deviation around 0.15, regardless of the underlying magnetic field model. We found that such an uncertainty in the calculated L* value can shift the peak location of electron phase space density (PSD) profile by 0.2 RE radially but with its shape nearly preserved.

On 30 September 2012, a flux “dropout” occurred throughout Earth's outer electron radiation belt during the main phase of a strong geomagnetic storm. Using eight spacecraft from NASA's Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) and Van Allen Probes missions and NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites constellation, we examined the full extent and timescales of the dropout based on particle energy, equatorial pitch angle, radial distance, and species. We calculated phase space densities of relativistic electrons, in adiabatic invariant coordinates, which revealed that loss processes during the dropout were > 90% effective throughout the majority of the outer belt and the plasmapause played a key role in limiting the spatial extent of the dropout. THEMIS and the Van Allen Probes observed telltale signatures of loss due to magnetopause shadowing and subsequent outward radial transport, including similar loss of energetic ring current ions. However, Van Allen Probes observations suggest that another loss process played a role for multi-MeV electrons at lower L shells (L*

We have recently conducted a statistical survey on pitch angle distributions of energetic electrons trapped in the Earth's outer radiation belt, and a new empirical model was developed based upon survey results. This model—relativistic electron pitch angle distribution (REPAD)—aims to present statistical pictures of electron equatorial pitch angle distributions, instead of the absolute flux levels, as a function of energy, L shell, magnetic local time, and magnetic activity. To quantify and facilitate this statistical survey, we use Legendre polynomials to fit long-term in situ directional fluxes observed near the magnetic equator from three missions: CRRES, Polar, and LANL-97A. As the first of this kind of model, REPAD covers the whole outer belt region, providing not only the mean and median pitch angle distributions in the area but also error estimates of the average distributions. Preliminary verification and validation results demonstrate the reliable performance of this model. Usage of REPAD is mainly to predict the full pitch angle distribution of fluxes along a given magnetic field line, or even on a given drift shell, based upon one single unidirectional or omnidirectional flux measurement anywhere on that field line. This can be particularly useful for data assimilation, which usually has large tolerance on data errors. In addition, relatively small variations in pitch angle distributions measured at L shell between ~ 4 and 5 justify the assumption of fixed pitch angle distributions at GPS equatorial crossings (L ~ 4.2) used in our previous studies.

Drastic variations of Earth's outer radiation belt electrons ultimately result from various competing source, loss, and transport processes, to which wave-particle interactions are critically important. Using 15 spacecraft including NASA's Van Allen Probes, THEMIS, and SAMPEX missions and NOAA's GOES and POES constellations, we investigated the evolution of the outer belt during the strong geomagnetic storm of 30 September to 3 October 2012. This storm's main phase dropout exhibited enhanced losses to the atmosphere at L* 1 MeV electrons and energetic protons, SAMPEX >1 MeV electrons, and ground observations of band-limited Pc1-2 wave activity, we show that this sudden loss was consistent with pitch angle scattering by electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves in the dusk magnetic local time sector at 3 300 nT, and energetic electron injections and whistler-mode chorus waves were observed throughout the inner magnetosphere for >12 h. After this period, Bz turned northward, and injections, chorus activity, and enhancements in PSD ceased. Overall, the outer belt was depleted by this storm. From the unprecedented level of observations available, we show direct evidence of the competitive nature of different wave-particle interactions controlling relativistic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt.

[1] Phase Space Density (PSD) matching can be used to identify the presence of nonadiabatic processes, evaluate accuracy of magnetic field models, or to cross-calibrate instruments. Calculating PSD in adiabatic invariant coordinates requires a global specification of the magnetic field. For a well specified global magnetic field, nonadiabatic processes or inadequate cross calibration will give a poor PSD match. We have calculated PSD(μ, K) for both Van Allen Probes using a range of models and compare these PSDs at conjunctions in L* (for given μ, K). We quantitatively assess the relative goodness of each model for radiation belt applications. We also quantify the uncertainty in the model magnetic field magnitude and the related uncertainties in PSD, which has applications for modeling and particle data without concurrent magnetic field measurements. Using this technique, we show the error in PSD for an energy spectrum observed by the relativistic electron-proton telescope (REPT) is a factor of ∼1.2 using the TS04 model.

The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed to provide accurate, global specification of the Earth's radiation belts and to better understand the physical processes that control radiation belt structure and dynamics. DREAM is designed using a modular software approach in order to provide a computational framework that makes it easy to change components such as the global magnetic field model, radiation belt dynamics model, boundary conditions, etc. This paper provides a broad overview of the DREAM model and a summary of some of the principal results to date. We describe the structure of the DREAM model, describe the five major components, and illustrate the various options that are available for each component. We discuss how the data assimilation is performed and the data preprocessing and postprocessing that are required for producing the final DREAM outputs. We describe how we apply global magnetic field models for conversion between flux and phase space density and, in particular, the benefits of using a self-consistent, coupled ring current–magnetic field model. We discuss some of the results from DREAM including testing of boundary condition assumptions and effects of adding a source term to radial diffusion models. We also describe some of the testing and validation of DREAM and prospects for future development.

[1] Thirty years ago Paulikas and Blake (1979) showed a remarkable correlation between geosynchronous relativistic electron fluxes and solar wind speed (Vsw). This seminal result has been a foundation of radiation belt studies, space weather forecasting, and current understanding of solar wind radiation belt coupling. We have repeated their analysis with a considerably longer-running data set (1989–2010) from the Los Alamos National Laboratory energetic particle instruments with several surprising results. Rather than the roughly linear correlation between Vsw and log (flux), our results show a triangle-shaped distribution in which fluxes have a distinct velocity-dependent lower limit but a velocity-independent upper limit. The highest-electron fluxes can occur for any value of Vsw with no indication of a Vsw threshold. We also find a distinct solar cycle dependence with the triangle-shaped distribution evident in 2 declining phase years dominated by high-speed streams but essentially no correlation in 2 solar maximum years. For time periods that do show a triangle-shaped distribution we consider whether it can be explained by scatter due to other parameters. We examine the role of time dependence and time lag in producing the observed distribution. We also look at the same statistical relationship but at energies ≪1 MeV. We conclude that the relationship between radiation belt electron fluxes and solar wind velocity is substantially more complex than suggested by previous statistical studies. We find that there are important ways in which the “conventional wisdom” stating that high-velocity wind drives high-MeV electron fluxes is, in general, either misleading or unsupported.

[1] Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves may contribute to ring current ion and radiation belt electron losses, and theoretical studies suggest these processes may be most effective during the main phase of geomagnetic storms. However, ground-based signatures of EMIC waves, Pc1–Pc2 geomagnetic pulsations, are observed more frequently during the recovery phase. We investigate the association of EMIC waves with various storm phases in case and statistical studies of 22 geomagnetic storms over 1996–2003, with an associated Dst < −30 nT. High-resolution data from the GOES 8, 9, and 10 geosynchronous satellite magnetometers provide information on EMIC wave activity in the 0–1 Hz band over ±3 days with respect to storm onset, defined as commencement of the negative excursion of Dst. Thirteen of 22 storms showed EMIC waves occurring during the main phase. In case studies of two storms, waves were seen with higher intensity in the main phase in one and the recovery phase in the other. Power spectral densities up to 500 nT2 Hz−1 were similar in prestorm, storm, and early recovery phases. Superposed epoch analysis of the 22 storms shows 78% of wave events during the main phase occurred in the He+ band. After storm onset the main phase contributed only 29% of events overall compared to 71% during recovery phase, up to 3 days. Some differences between storms were found to be dependent on the solar wind driver. Plasma plumes or an inflated plasmasphere may contribute to enhancing EMIC wave activity at geosynchronous orbit.

[1] A rapid loss of energetic (>230 keV) electrons from the outer radiation belt was observed with the GPS constellation between 1430 and 1730 UTC on 7 May 2007. The rapid loss occurred from 4 < L* < 6 over all measured energies above 230 keV. Currently accepted rapid loss mechanisms include magnetopause shadowing and/or outward diffusion, and precipitation to the atmosphere due to wave-particle interactions. Here the loss timescale is ∼2 hr, and the magnetopause is near L = 8, which requires unrealistically high outward diffusion rates. Current estimates of the loss timescales associated with EMIC waves, plasmaspheric hiss and whistler-mode chorus are too long, even in combination, to explain the observed losses inside L* ≃ 6.

Superposed epoch analyses have shown that, on average, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turns northward close to substorm onset. This has been commonly accepted as evidence for the substorm onset being triggered by a rapid northward turning of the IMF. Here we show that the tendency arises in any superposed epoch analysis of the IMF in which event onset is biased to occur for southward IMF, irrespective of a coincident rapid northward turning of the IMF. The overall IMF variation found in the largest superposed epoch analysis of this kind is also well reproduced using a Minimal Substorm Model in which substorm onsets are determined without the requirement of a northward IMF turning trigger. We discuss the explanation underlying these results and conclude that there is no conclusive evidence in favour of the hypothesis that substorm onsets are triggered by a rapid northward turning of the IMF. Citation: Freeman, M. P., and S. K. Morley (2009), No evidence for externally triggered substorms based on superposed epoch analysis of IMF B-z, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21101, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040621.

[1] Coordinated observations from GOES-9, DMSP F-13, and Chokurdakh (CHD) have shown concurrent Pc1-2 band wave activity in the late afternoon sector, close to 16 MLT. The left-hand polarization of the waves in space indicates that these are electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves. In the region of field line conjunction, DMSP also observed 6–30 keV energy ion precipitation. We have examined the propagation of the EMIC waves from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere using both time series analysis and a 2-D magnetohydrodynamic model. Our analysis suggests that the EMIC are generated by interactions with cold plasma within a drainage plume, consistent with theory, and that the waves primarily propagate earthward along geomagnetic field lines at the eastward (outer) edge of the plume.

[1] We re-examine whether substorms are triggered by solar wind fluctuations or an internal magnetospheric instability by comparing the statistical associations between substorm onsets and (1) an external trigger definition, (2) a simple internal trigger definition of only prior loading of solar wind energy that is a subset of the external trigger definition. Statistical associations are calculated both for observed substorm onsets and onsets generated by a Minimal Substorm Model in which substorms are purely internally triggered. Thence we argue that a minimum interval of prior loading is a necessary condition for substorm onset, a subsequent northward IMF turning is not necessary, and consequently that an internal trigger from a magnetospheric instability is a necessary and sufficient condition for substorm onset. We discuss how this result may explain a report that externally triggered substorms are systematically larger than non-externally triggered substorms.

[1] An image of the dayside low-energy ion outflow event that occurred on 16 December 2003 was constructed with ground- and space-based GPS (Global Positioning System) Total Electron Content (TEC) data and ion drift meter data from the DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program). A tomographic reconstruction technique has been applied to the GPS TEC data obtained from the GPS receiver on the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite FedSat. The two dimensional tomographic image of the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere reveals a spectacular beam-like dayside ion outflow emanating from the cusp region. The transverse components of the magnetic field in FedSat's NewMag data show the presence of field aligned current (FAC) sheets, indicating the existence of low-energy electron precipitation in the cusp region. The DMSP ion drift data show upward ion drift velocities and upward fluxes of low-energy ions and electrons at the orbiting height of the DMSP spacecraft in the cusp region. This study presents the first tomographic image of the flux tube structure of ionospheric ion outflows from 0.13 Re up to 3.17 Re altitude.

mapped to the ionosphere, of the form Enosin 4 (q/2) and estimate the peak value, Eno ,b y matching observed and modeled variations of both the latitude, LOCB, of the dayside OCB (as inferred from the equatorward edge of cusp proton emissions seen by FUV) and the transpolar voltage FPC (as derived using the mapped potential technique from SuperDARN HF radar data). This analysis also yields the time constant tOCB with which the open-closed boundary relaxes back toward its equilibrium configuration. For the case studied here, we find tOCB = 9.7 ± 1.3 min, consistent with previous inferences from the observed response of ionospheric flow to southward turnings of the IMF. The analysis confirms quantitatively the concepts of ionospheric flow excitation on which the model is based and explains some otherwise anomalous features of the cusp precipitation morphology.

We employ a numerical model of cusp ion precipitation and proton aurora emission to fit variations of the peak Doppler-shifted Lyman-a intensity observed on 26 November 2000 by the SI-12 channel of the FUV instrument on the IMAGE satellite. The major features of this event appeared in response to two brief swings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) toward a southward orientation. We reproduce the observed spatial distributions of this emission on newly opened field lines by combining the proton emission model with a model of the response of ionospheric convection. The simulations are based on the observed variations of the solar wind proton temperature and concentration and the interplanetary magnetic field clock angle. They also allow for the efficiency, sampling rate, integration time and spatial resolution of the FUV instrument. The good match (correlation coefficient 0.91, significant at the 98% level) between observed and modeled variations confirms the time constant (about 4 min) for the rise and decay of the proton emissions predicted by the model for southward IMF conditions. The implications for the detection of pulsed magnetopause reconnection using proton aurora are discussed for a range of interplanetary conditions.