1. Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change
- Author
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Ryan R. Neely, Christoph Ritter, Tetsu Sakai, Andreas Herber, David A. Ridley, S. I. Dolgii, Jean-Paul Vernier, V. D. Burlakov, Terry Deshler, B. D. Santer, Anja Schmidt, Osamu Uchino, Makiko Sato, John E. Barnes, Aleksey V. Nevzorov, Susan Solomon, and T. Nagai
- Subjects
geography ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,Global warming ,Climate change ,Radiative forcing ,Atmospheric sciences ,Aerosol ,Geophysics ,Volcano ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Tropopause ,Global cooling - Abstract
Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, Aerosol Robotic Network, and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at middle to high latitudes and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be −0.19 ± 0.09 Wm−2. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12°C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.
- Published
- 2014
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