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The shape and extent of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is a matter of controversy, with different studies proposing a wide range of reconstructions. Here, for the first time, we combine stable water isotopic information from ice cores with isotope-enabled climate model outputs to investigate the problem. Exploring the space of possible ice sheet geometries by simulation is prohibitively expensive. We address this problem by using a Gaussian process emulator as a statistical surrogate of the full climate model. The emulator is calibrated using the results of a small number of carefully chosen simulations and then permits fast, probabilistic predictions of the simulator outputs at untried inputs. The inputs are GIS morphologies, parameterized through a dimension-reduction technique adapted to the spherical geometry of the setting. Based on the emulator predictions, the characteristics of morphologies compatible with the available ice core measurements are explored, leading to a reduction in uncertainty on the LIG GIS morphology. Moreover, a scenario-based approach allows to assess the gains in uncertainty reduction which would result from the availability of better dated LIG measurements in Greenland ice cores.

We compare multi-ice core data with δ18O model output for the early last interglacial Antarctic sea ice minimum. The spatial pattern of δ18O across Antarctica is sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea ice retreat. Local sea ice retreat increases the proportion of winter precipitation, depleting δ18O at ice core sites. However, retreat also enriches δ18O because of the reduced source-to-site distance for atmospheric vapor. The joint overall effect is for δ18O to increase as sea ice is reduced. Our data-model comparison indicates a winter sea ice retreat of 67, 59, and 43% relative to preindustrial in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean. A compilation of Southern Ocean sea ice proxy data provides weak support for this reconstruction. However, most published marine core sites are located too far north of the 128,000 years B.P. sea ice edge, preventing independent corroboration for this sea ice reconstruction. Plain Language Summary The Antarctic isotope and temperature maximum, which occurred approximately 128,000 years before present (B.P.) during the warmer than present last interglacial period, is associated with a major retreat of Antarctic sea ice. Understanding the details of this major sea ice retreat is crucial in order to understand the sensitivity of the Southern Hemisphere sea ice system and to evaluate the performance of climate model simulations in response to future warming. This work uses a multi-ice and ocean core data-model evaluation to assess the magnitude and spatial pattern of this sea ice retreat. Our results suggest that sea ice retreat was greatest in the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean and less in the Pacific sector. These results may have had serious implications for the stability of marine terminating glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet and their contribution to the last interglacial sea level rise. These results also support a hypothesized slowdown in northward ocean heat transport during the early last interglacial.

Warmer than present Antarctic and Southern Ocean temperatures during the last interglacial, approximately 128,000 years ago, have been attributed to changes in north-south ocean heat transport, causing opposing hemispheric temperature anomalies. We investigate the magnitude of Antarctic warming and Antarctic ice core isotopic enrichment in response to Northern Hemisphere meltwater input during the early last interglacial. A 1,600 year HadCM3 simulation driven by 0.25 Sv of meltwater input reproduces 50-60 % of the peak Southern Ocean summer sea surface temperature anomaly, sea ice retreat and ice core isotope enrichment. We also find a robust increase in the proportion of cold season precipitation during the last interglacial, leading to lower isotopic values at the Antarctic ice core sites. These results suggest that a HadCM3 simulation including 0.25 Sv for 3,000-4,000 years would reconcile the last interglacial observations, providing a potential solution for the last interglacial 'missing heat' problem.

The evaluation of ice sheet models is one of the pressing problems in the study of ice sheet dynamics. Here we examine the question of how much isochronous information is contained within the publicly available Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) Greenland airborne radio echo soundings data set. We identify regions containing isochronous reflectors using automatic radio echo sounding processing (ARESP) algorithms. We find that isochronous reflectors are present within 36% of the CReSIS radio echo sounding englacial data by location and 41% by total number of data. Between 1000 and 3000 m in depth, isochronous reflectors are present along more than 50% of the data set flight path. Lower volumes of cold glacial period ice also correspond with more isochronous reflectors. We find good agreement between ARESP and continuity index results, providing confidence in these findings. Ice structure data sets, based on data identified here, will be of use in evaluating ice sheet simulations and the assessment of past rates of snow accumulation.

[1] Oxygen isotope palaeoclimate records, preserved in moss tissue cellulose, are complicated by environmental influences on the relationships between source water inputs and evaporative conditions. We carried out stable isotope analyses of precipitation collected from the maritime Antarctic and cellulose extracted from co-located Chorisodontium aciphyllum dominated moss peat bank deposits accumulated since 1870 A.D. Analyses of stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition of summer precipitation on Signy Island (60.7°S, 45.6°W) established a local meteoric water line (LMWL) similar to both the global MWL and other LMWLs, and almost identical to the HadAM3 isotope-enabled global circulation model output. The oxygen isotopic composition of cellulose (δ18OC) revealed little temporal variation between four moss peat banks on Signy Island since 1870. However, δ18OC followed two patterns with Sites A and D consistently 3‰ enriched relative to δ18OC values from Sites B and C. The growing moss surfaces at Sites A and D are likely to have been hydrated by isotopically heavier summer precipitation, whilst at Sites B and C, the moss banks are regularly saturated by the isotopically depleted snow melt streams. Laboratory experiments revealed that evaporative enrichment of C. aciphyllum moss leaf water by 5‰ occurred rapidly following saturation (ecologically equivalent to post-rainfall or snow melt periods). In addition to the recognized source water-cellulose fractionation extent of 27 ± 3‰, such a shift would account for the 32‰ difference measured between δ18O of Signy Island precipitation and cellulose.

We know from the ice record that the concentration of atmospheric methane, [CH4], at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was roughly half that in the pre-industrial era (PI), buthow much of the difference was source-driven, and how much was sink-driven, remains uncertain. Recent developments include: a higher estimate of the LGM-PI change in methane emissions from wetlands―the dominant, natural methane source; and the possible recycling of OH consumed in isoprene oxidation―the principal methane sink. Here, in view of these developments, we use an atmospheric chemistry-transport model to re-examine the main factors affecting OH during this period: changes in air temperature and emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds from vegetation. We find that their net effect was negligible(with and without an OH recycling mechanism), implyingthe change in [CH4] was almost entirely source driven―a conclusion that, though subject to significant uncertainties,can be reconciled with recent methane source estimates.

The ice-core record of the carbon-13 content of atmospheric methane (δ13CH4) has largely been used to constrain past changes in methane sources. The aim of this paper is to explore, for the first time, the contribution that changes in the strength of a minor methane sink―oxidation by atomic chlorine in the marine boundary layer (ClMBL)―could make to changes in δ13CH4 on glacial-interglacial timescales. Combining wind and temperature data from a variety of general circulation models with a simple formulation for the concentration of ClMBL, we find that changes in the strength of this sink, driven solely by changes in the atmospheric circulation, could have been responsible for changes in δ13CH4 of the order of 10% of the glacial-interglacial difference observed. We thus highlight the need to quantify past changes in the strength of this sink, including those relating to changes in the sea-ice source of sea salt aerosol.

Stable water isotopes have been added to the full hydrological cycle of the Hadley Centre Climate model (HadCM3) coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Simulations of delta O-18 in precipitation and at the ocean surface compare well with observations for the present-day climate. The model has been used to investigate the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSO; it is found that the anomalous delta O-18 in precipitation is correlated with the anomalous precipitation amount in accordance with the "amount effect.'' The El Nino delta O-18 anomaly at the ocean surface is largest in coastal regions because of the mixing of ocean water and the more depleted runoff from the land surface. Coral delta O-18 anomalies were estimated, using an established empirical relationship, and generally reflect ocean surface delta O-18 anomalies in coastal regions and sea surface temperatures away from the coast. The spatial relationship between tropical precipitation and delta O-18 was investigated for the El Nino anomaly simulated by HadCM3. Weighting the El Nino precipitation anomaly by the precipitation amount at each grid box gave a large increase in the spatial correlation between tropical precipitation and delta O-18. This improvement was most apparent over land points and between 10 and 20 degrees of latitude.

[1] Results from an isotope-enabled general circulation model are presented in order to determine the isotopic signal of a warmer climate on Antarctica. The warming is forced using CO2 forecasts for the next century. For unforced interannual climate variability the temporal gradient and correlation between stable water isotopes and surface temperature is small. The relationship is much stronger for the CO2 forced event. There is little regional coherence between temporal gradients for the forced and unforced climates, implying that correlations between stable water isotopes and temperature from instrumental records of a couple of decades cannot be applied to larger warming events. Additionally, there are strong discrepancies between the forced warming temporal gradients and present-day spatial gradients of isotopes against temperature. We show that it is difficult to obtain a local spatial gradient since it is systematically affected by the geographical size of the spatial sample. For the forced warming, the temporal gradient derived for the warming event over Dome C is less than half the value generally applied. We determine, through means of a new frequency decomposition, that a large portion of this decrease from the expected value is due to changes in the seasonal precipitation temperature covariance. This low isotopic sensitivity to a CO2 driven warming implies that current and future warming trends may have rather small isotopic signals in Antarctica.

[1] Moving boat acoustic Doppler current profiling (ADCP) is increasingly used to measure discharge in large rivers. We investigate whether useful information about bed shear stress can be recovered from such data. Alternative ways to estimate local bed shear stress using the logarithmic law of the wall and spatial averaging are tested using ADCP transects across lower Fraser River, Canada. Repeatability is assessed by comparing estimates from outward and return boat tracks. The most precise method uses the vertically averaged mean velocity and a zero-velocity height based on bed grain size information. The accuracy of the assumed zero-velocity height can be judged by consistency between estimates using mean velocity and near-bed velocity. Shear stress estimates from unconstrained log-law fits are less repeatable and tend to overpredict, and mean shear stress estimates using the depth-slope product are unreliable in this river because of nonuniform flow.