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The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic‐enhanced climate forcing. Paleoenvironmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly coupled to the climate system during the past and indicate the potential for accelerated and sustained Antarctic ice mass loss into the future. Modern observations by contrast suggest that the AIS has only just started to respond to climate change in recent decades. The maximum projected sea level contribution from Antarctica to 2100 has increased significantly since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report, although estimates continue to evolve with new observational and theoretical advances. This review brings together recent literature highlighting the progress made on the known processes and feedbacks that influence the stability of the AIS. Reducing the uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of the future sea level response to AIS change requires a multidisciplinary approach that integrates knowledge of the interactions between the ice sheet, solid Earth, atmosphere, and ocean systems and across time scales of days to millennia. We start by reviewing the processes affecting AIS mass change, from atmospheric and oceanic processes acting on short time scales (days to decades), through to ice processes acting on intermediate time scales (decades to centuries) and the response to solid Earth interactions over longer time scales (decades to millennia). We then review the evidence of AIS changes from the Pliocene to the present and consider the projections of global sea level rise and their consequences. We highlight priority research areas required to improve our understanding of the processes and feedbacks governing AIS change.

Solar geoengineering that aims to offset global warming could nonetheless alter atmospheric temperature gradients and humidity and thus affect the extratropical storm tracks. Here, we first analyze climate model simulations from experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which a reduction in incoming solar radiation balances a quadrupling of CO2. The Northern Hemisphere extratropical storm track weakens by a comparable amount in G1 as it does for increased CO2 only. The Southern Hemisphere storm track also weakens in G1, in contrast to a strengthening and poleward shift for increased CO2. Using mean available potential energy, we show that the changes in zonal‐mean temperature and humidity are sufficient to explain the different responses of storm‐track intensity. We also demonstrate similar weakening in a more complex geoengineering scenario. Our results offer insight into how geoengineering affects storm tracks, highlighting the potential for geoengineering to induce novel climate changes.

The biogeochemistry of the ocean exerts a strong influence on the climate by modulating atmospheric greenhouse gases. In turn, ocean biogeochemistry depends on numerous physical and biological processes that change over space and time. Accurately simulating these processes is fundamental for accurately simulating the ocean's role within the climate. However, our simulation of these processes is often simplistic, despite a growing understanding of underlying biological dynamics. Here we explore how new parameterizations of biological processes affect simulated biogeochemical properties in a global ocean model. We combine 6 different physical realizations with 6 different biogeochemical parameterizations (36 unique ocean states). The biogeochemical parameterizations, all previously published, aim to more accurately represent the response of ocean biology to changing physical conditions. We make three major findings. First, oxygen, carbon, alkalinity, and phosphate fields are more sensitive to changes in the ocean's physical state. Only nitrate is more sensitive to changes in biological processes, and we suggest that assessment protocols for ocean biogeochemical models formally include the marine nitrogen cycle to assess their performance. Second, we show that dynamic variations in the production, remineralization, and stoichiometry of organic matter in response to changing environmental conditions benefit the simulation of ocean biogeochemistry. Third, dynamic biological functioning reduces the sensitivity of biogeochemical properties to physical change. Carbon and nitrogen inventories were 50% and 20% less sensitive to physical changes, respectively, in simulations that incorporated dynamic biological functioning. These results highlight the importance of a dynamic biology for ocean properties and climate.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD; or Indian Ocean Zonal Mode) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate oscillation that has profound impacts on rainfall distribution across the Indian Ocean region. Instrumental records provide a reliable representation of IOD behavior since 1958, while coral reconstructions currently extend the IOD history back to 1846. Large fluctuations in the number and intensity of positive IOD events over time are evident in these records, but it is unclear to what extent this represents multidecadal modulation of the IOD or an anthropogenically forced change in IOD behavior. In this study we explore the suitability of coral records from single-site locations in the equatorial Indian Ocean for capturing information about the occurrence and magnitude of positive IOD (pIOD) events. We find that the optimum location for coral reconstructions of the IOD occurs in the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean, along the coast of Java and Sumatra between ~3 and 7°S. Here the strong ocean cooling and atmospheric drying during pIOD events are unambiguously recorded in coral oxygen isotope records, which capture up to 50% of IOD variance. Unforced experiments with coupled climate models suggest that potential biases in coral estimates of pIOD frequency are skewed toward overestimating pIOD recurrence intervals and become larger with shorter reconstruction windows and longer pIOD recurrence times. Model output also supports the assumption of stationarity in sea surface temperature relationships in the optimum IOD location that is necessary for paleoclimate reconstructions. This study provides a targeted framework for the future generation of paleoclimate records, including optimized coral reconstructions of past IOD variability.

[1] The oxygen isotopic ratio (δ18O) in tropical Pacific coral skeletons reflects past El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, but the δ18O-ENSO relationship is poorly quantified. Uncertainties arise when constructing δ18O data sets, combining records from different sites, and converting between δ18O and sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS). Here we use seasonally resolved δ18O from 1958 to 1985 at 15 tropical Pacific sites to estimate these errors and evaluate possible improvements. Observational uncertainties from Kiritimati, New Caledonia, and Rarotonga are 0.12–0.14‰, leading to errors of 8–25% on the typical δ18O variance. Multicoral syntheses using five to seven sites capture the principal components (PCs) well, but site selection dramatically influences ENSO spatial structure: Using sites in the eastern Pacific, western Pacific warm pool, and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) captures “eastern Pacific-type” variability, while “Central Pacific-type” events are best observed by combining sites in the warm pool and SPCZ. The major obstacle to quantitative ENSO estimation is the δ18O/climate conversion, demonstrated by the large errors on both δ18O variance and the amplitude of the first principal component resulting from the use of commonly employed bivariate formulae to relate SST and SSS to δ18O. Errors likely arise from either the instrumental data used for pseudoproxy calibration or influences from other processes (δ18O advection/atmospheric fractionation, etc.). At some sites, modeling seasonal changes to these influences reduces conversion errors by up to 20%. This indicates that understanding of past ENSO dynamics using coral δ18O could be greatly advanced by improving δ18O forward models.

[1] We explore two principal areas of uncertainty associated with paleoclimate reconstructions from speleothem δ18O (δ18Ospel): potential non-stationarity in relationships between local climate and larger-scale atmospheric circulation, and routing of water through the karst aquifer. Using a δ18Ospel record from Turkey, the CSIRO Mk3L climate system model and the KarstFOR karst hydrology model, we confirm the stationarity of relationships between cool season precipitation and regional circulation dynamics associated with the North Sea-Caspian pattern since 1 ka. Stalagmite δ18O is predicted for the last 500 years, using precipitation and temperature output from the CSIRO Mk3L model and synthetic δ18O of precipitation as inputs for the KarstFOR model. Interannual variability in the δ18Ospel record is captured by KarstFOR, but we cannot reproduce the isotopically lighter conditions of the sixteenth to seventeenth centuries. We argue that forward models of paleoclimate proxies (such as KarstFOR) embedded within isotope-enabled general circulation models are now required.

In a year-long pilot experiment to the southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, we recorded teleseismic intermediate-period Rayleigh waves on ocean-bottom “L-CHEAPO” instruments using differential pressure gauges as sensors. We analyzed over 70 events and obtained accurate phase velocity estimates at periods between 15 and 70s. The average seismic structure beneath the pilot array does not deviate significantly from a standard seismic model of 100 Myr old oceanic lithosphere. However, we find strong lateral velocity variations across the array with large negative anomalies appearing within roughly 300km of the island chain. We are able to image the edge of the Hawaiian Swell and hence demonstrate the importance of making phase velocity measurements on the ocean floor.

Active ridge propagation frequently occurs along spreading ridges and profoundly affects ridge crest segmentation over time. The mechanisms controlling ridge propagation, however, are poorly understood. At the slow spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 21.5°N a seismic refraction and wide-angle reflection profile surveyed the crustal structure along a segment controlled by rapid ridge propagation. Tomographic traveltime inversion of seismic data suggests that the crustal structure along the ridge axis is controlled by melt supply; thus, crust is thickest, 8 km, at the domed segment center and decreases in thickness toward both segment ends. However, thicker crust is formed in the direction of ridge propagation, suggesting that melt is preferentially transferred toward the propagating ridge tip. Further, while seismic layer 2 remains constant along axis, seismic layer 3 shows profound changes in thickness, governing variations in total crustal thickness. This feature supports mantle upwelling at the segment center. Thus, fluid basaltic melt is redistributed easily laterally, while more viscose gabbroic melt tends to crystallize and accrete nearer to the locus of melt supply. The onset of propagation seems to have coincided with the formation of thicker crust, suggesting that propagation initiation might be due to changes in the melt supply. After a rapid initiation a continuous process of propagation was established. The propagation rate seems to be controlled by the amount of magma that reaches the segment ends. The strength of upwelling may govern the evolution of ridge segments and hence ultimately controls the propagation length.

[1] We present a new map of the spatial variations in effective elastic thickness, Te, along the Andes estimated using Bouguer coherence. The Te variations reflect interactions between subducting slab and preexisting terrane structure. In the forearc, conductive cooling of the continent by the subducting slab exerts primary control on rigidity, resulting in Te that is highest (∼40 km) where the oceanic lithosphere is oldest and coldest (∼20°S). In the central Andes, Te is relatively low (∼20 km) along the volcanic chain and the Altiplano and Puna plateaus. We interpret this weakening to reflect a high geothermal gradient maintained by advective magmatic processes, a shallow and hot asthenosphere, and a very weak lower crust throughout this region. East of the plateaus, high Te delineates underthrusting of the Brazilian shield. Finally, north and south of the plateaus, flat subduction areas are characterized by high Te, high shear wave velocity, thick thermal lithosphere, and low heat flow, indicating that continental lithosphere there is thicker, colder, and stronger. On the basis of these relationships we suggest that variations in slab dip along the margin relate to variations in structure of the continental lithosphere. In particular, we propose that upper plate structure influences the width and viscosity of the asthenospheric wedge, which control the suction moment responsible for the subduction angle at depths ≥70–100 km. For example, when oceanic lithosphere subducts beneath thin continental lithosphere, the low-viscosity asthenosphere allows the slab to detach from the continent and sink into the mantle at normal angles. However, when oceanic lithosphere subducts close or beneath thick and strong continental lithosphere, the asthenospheric wedge narrows and corner flow drags high-viscosity mantle from the base of the thick (>150 km), cold continent into the wedge. Suction forces increase with both narrowing of the wedge and its increasing viscosity. We estimate the asthenospheric viscosity underneath thick, cold continents to be ≥1020 Pa s, sufficient to induce flat subduction. Later, after prolonged hydration and weakening of the continent's base, asthenospheric flow into the wedge may resume, allowing the slab to sink again into the mantle at normal angles.

The Musicians Seamount Province is a group of volcanic elongated ridges (VERs) and single seamounts located north of the Hawaiian Chain. A 327° trending seamount chain defines the western part of the province and has been interpreted as the expression of a Cretaceous hot spot beneath the northward moving Pacific Plate. To the east, elongated E-W striking ridges dominate the morphology. In 1999, wide-angle seismic data were collected across two 400 km long VERs. We present tomographic images of the volcanic edifices, which indicate that crustal thickening occurs in oceanic layer 2 rather than in layer 3. This extrusive style of volcanism appears to strongly contrast with the formation processes of aseismic ridges, where crustal thickening is mostly accommodated by intrusive underplating. High-resolution bathymetry was also collected, which yields a detailed image of the morphology of the VERs. From the occurrence of flat-top guyots and from the unique geomorphologic setting, two independent age constraints for the Pacific crust during the Cretaceous “quiet” zone are obtained, allowing a tectonic reconstruction for the formation of the Musicians VERs. Hot spot-ridge interaction leads to asthenosphere channeling from the plume to the nearby spreading center over a maximum distance of 400 km. The Musicians VERs were formed by mainly extrusive volcanism on top of this melt-generating channel. The proposed formation model may be applicable to a number of observed volcanic ridges in the Pacific, including the Tuamotu Isles, the eastern portion of the Foundation chain, and the western termination of the Salas y Gomez seamount chain.