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There is widespread concern that rapidly rising sea levels may drown salt marshes by exceeding the rate at which these important ecosystems can build elevation. A significant fraction of marshes reside within backbarrier estuaries, yet little attention has been paid to how changes in inlet geometry influences estuarine tides and marshes. In 1898, a coastal storm eroded a new inlet through the barrier beach that fronts the North-South Rivers Estuary in Massachusetts, USA. The new inlet shortened the North River by 5.6 km and lengthened the South River channel by the same amount. Modern measurements of tidal attenuation suggest that channel shortening abruptly increased mean high tide along the North River by at least 30 cm. Foraminifera communities within North River marsh sediments indicated an environmental change from infrequent to frequent inundation at the time of the 1898 switch in inlet location, which supports this hypothesis. Increased mineral sediment deposition after the inlet switch played a dominant role in allowing marshes along the North River channel to adjust to greater inundation. Following the inlet switch, sediment accreted in North River marshes at 2–5 times the rate of sea level rise (SLR). The North River channel widened by an average of 18% relative to pre-1898 conditions to accommodate the increased tidal prism. The role of mineral sediment accretion in making this marsh resilient to an abrupt increase in inundation depth highlights the importance of maintaining adequate sediment supplies in coastal regions as SLR accelerates.

This study presents a new method to examine long-term dynamics in sediment yield using time-varying sediment-discharge rating curves. Dynamic linear models (DLMs) are introduced as a time series filter that can assess how the relationship between streamflow and sediment concentration or load changes over time in response to a wide variety of natural and anthropogenic watershed disturbances or long-term changes. The filter operates by updating parameter values using a recursive Bayesian design that responds to one-day-ahead forecast errors while also accounting for observational noise. The estimated time series of rating curve parameters can then be used to diagnose multi-scale (daily-decadal) variability in sediment yield after accounting for fluctuations in streamflow. The technique is applied in a case study examining changes in turbidity load, a proxy for sediment load, in the Esopus Creek watershed, part of the New York City drinking water supply system. The results show that turbidity load exhibits a complex array of variability across time scales. The DLM highlights flood event-driven positive hysteresis, where turbidity load remained elevated for months after large flood events, as a major component of dynamic behavior in the rating curve relationship. The DLM also produces more accurate one-day-ahead loading forecasts compared to other static and time-varying rating curve methods. The results suggest that DLMs provide a useful tool for diagnosing changes in sediment-discharge relationships over time and may help identify variability in sediment concentrations and loads that can be used to inform dynamic water quality management.

Off-river coves and embayments provide accommodation space for sediment accumulation, particularly for sandy estuaries where high energy in the main channel prevents significant long-term storage of fine-grained material. Seasonal sediment inputs to Hamburg Cove in the Connecticut River estuary (USA) were monitored to understand the timing and mechanisms for sediment storage there. Unlike in freshwater tidal coves, sediment was primarily trapped here during periods of low discharge, when the salinity intrusion extended upriver to the cove entrance. During periods of low discharge and high sediment accumulation, deposited sediment displayed geochemical signatures consistent with a marine source. Numerical simulations reveal that low discharge conditions provide several important characteristics that maximize sediment trapping. First, these conditions allow the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) to be located in the vicinity of the cove entrance, which increases sediment concentrations during flood tide. Second, the saltier water in the main channel can enter the cove as a density current, enhancing near-bed velocities and resuspending sediment, providing an efficient delivery mechanism. Finally, higher salinity water accumulates in the deep basin of the cove, creating a stratified region that becomes decoupled from ebb currents, promoting retention of sediment in the cove. This process of estuarine-enhanced sediment accumulation in off-river coves will likely extend upriver during future sea level rise.

Both human activity and climate change can influence erosion rates and initiate rapid landscape change. Understanding the relative impact of these factors is critical to managing the risks of extreme erosion related to flooding and landslide occurrence. Here we present a 2100 year record of sediment mass accumulation and inferred erosion based on lacustrine sediment cores from Amherst Lake, Vermont, USA. Using deposition from August 2011 Tropical Storm Irene as a modern analogue, we identified distinct event deposits indicative of destructive erosion events. These deposits record a prolonged (multidecadal) interval of enhanced erosion following the initial storm-induced landscape disturbance. The direct impact of human land cover alteration is minimal in comparison to the more recent twentieth century increase in the occurrence of catastrophic erosion linked to overall wetter conditions that favor high erosion rates and more easily trigger landslides during periods of extreme precipitation.